David Davis own impact assessments reckon weklw be 5-8% of GDP worse off in 10 years

So Dickens blind optimism might need some backing up !

We’ll I think we’ll be better off financially.

Really? Why? None of the evidence points that way yet. Even JRM said so. Maybe my grandkids can expect to be as well off as my parents in 50 years time……..

And we’ll be more democratic,

Not based on current experience, quite the opposite. Just look at all of the opposition against a second confirmatory vote.

less corruption,

As above, see Russia/Banks/BoJo/Farage/Big Red NHS Bus/JRM/etc.

less multiculturalism

Again, why is this in general a good thing?

Come on then Dickens, explain yourself in absolute detail, not just random generalisations from the Daily Mail, or that kn@b in the pub everyone eventually moves away from.

dannyh good debating skills you have there.

I just tailor them to the task at hand. No need to be wordy if you’re shooting fish in a barrel.

Pensioners have very little “skin in the game” and their decision will cast an economic shadow long after they have shuffled off this mortal coil.

I’ll be a pensioner next year and I’ll fight you in the street if necessary to retain my vote. I’m a remainer by the way and my suggestion would be that before you consider disenfranchising the elderly you consider removing voting rights for the thick, irrespective of age.

@igm, try too when a new name enters like they know the place, sticks out like wearing a bad wig and tash in your local you just got banned from

Why has this user opted to reply to the Brexit thread as their very first post on STW?

No mention of how to make tubeless work, what tyres for wet roots and whether that’s a crack or a sticker beforehand.

Pensioners have very little “skin in the game” and their decision will cast an economic shadow long after they have shuffled off this mortal coil.

I’ll be a pensioner next year and I’ll fight you in the street if necessary to retain my vote. I’m a remainer by the way and my suggestion would be that before you consider disenfranchising the elderly you consider removing voting rights for the thick, irrespective of age.

Can’t we just ban the English from voting?

I’ll be a pensioner next year and I’ll fight you in the street if necessary to retain my vote. I’m a remainer by the way and my suggestion would be that before you consider disenfranchising the elderly you consider removing voting rights for the thick, irrespective of age.

I agree wholeheartedly.  We are in the mess that we’re in because we’ve disenfranchised people, more disenfranchisement won’t fix anything.

Unless the voter is a borderline cretin as so many are.

@dickens

I really would like to hear more about why ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing, though, please.

Can’t we just ban the English from voting?

What trust our future to a tiny fraction pf the population?

I agree, but, changing minds is incredibly difficult. Once people start to realise that they might be wrong, they often dig in their heels and double-down.

I wonder, for instance, how many of this thread’s contributors have had their minds changed in the last 18 months?

Well, if you go back to the OP…

I am torn between both.

Part of me thinks more local decisions and less centralised is a Good Thing.

But part of me thinks it is working OK, and would it rock the boat lots to leave?

… I suspect a lot of people were quite ambivalent to the whole thing, but actually voting to Leave has concentrated minds somewhat

Here is something for you lot to think about.  Crikey it’s Washington Post …

This is coming from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/16/a-revealing-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-ethnically-diverse-countries/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c1293143f720

Data source: Harvard Institute for Economic Research.

This is the quote (from one of the expert).

.• Strong democracy correlates with ethnic homogeneity. This does not mean that one necessarily causes the other; the correlation might be caused by some other factor or factors. But here’s the paper’s suggestion for why diversity might make democracy tougher in some cases:

The democracy index is inversely related to ethnic fractionalization (when latitude is not controlled for). This result is consistent with theory and evidence presented in Aghion, Alesina and Trebbi (2002). The idea is that in more fragmented societies a group imposes restrictions on political liberty to impose control on the other groups. In more homogeneous societies, it is easier to rule more democratically since conflicts are less intense.

Here’s the money quote on the potential political implications of ethnicity:

In general, it does not matter for our purposes whether ethnic differences reflect physical attributes of groups (skin color, facial features) or long-lasting social conventions (language, marriage within the group, cultural norms) or simple social definition (self-identification, identification by outsiders). When people persistently identify with a particular group, they form potential interest groups that can be manipulated by political leaders, who often choose to mobilize some coalition of ethnic groups (“us”) to the exclusion of others (“them”). Politicians also sometimes can mobilize support by singling out some groups for persecution, where hatred of the minority group is complementary to some policy the politician wishes to pursue.

mikewsmith long time browser, fed up of all the negativity so came on here to spread some brexit cheer!

Lets start with multiculturalism.  Its a grand delusion.  Not my words but that of Angela Merkel.

To be fair immigration isn’t a big deal for me in the brexit debate but I thought I would throw that in to give you a bone to chew on (-:

What’s the name of that plastic stuff that used to be a popular football pitch substitute in the 1990s again?

Well lets hear your plan and what chance you think of getting the deal you need to make that happen

a brexiter with a plan, isnt that an oxymoron?

An end to multiculturalism.

And what does that mean, exactly?

I have no idea what chewkw is trying to say.

I wonder if he believed that stuff from Gove/Johnson about Turkey joining the EU next year.

It was a lie.

Managed immigration is of course good for the country but an open door policy is good for middle and high earners but not for low paid workers.  Hence why many working class voters voted leave.

Kimbers, I didn’t read it in the sun believe it or not.  Its an indisputable fact that if we are on wto rules or we get a deal that allows us to set our own tarriffs then we could just set zero tarriffs on some imports that suit us.  Before we joined the EEC we had cheaper food but we ended up with higher prices thanks to the EU.  The EU is a socialist protection racket, we buy off eachother even though its cheaper elsewhere.

I really would like to hear more about why ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing, though, please.

You won’t. Because it isn’t.

I have no idea what chewkw is trying to say.

I wonder if he believed that stuff from Gove/Johnson about Turkey joining the EU next year.

It was a lie.

Read the interesting research article published by Harvard Institute for Economic Research.

Then compare your thoughts on multiculturalism to the factual published research data.

Actually Kimbers I do have a plan, well at least what I would like.  A Canada style free trade agreement with no restrictions on services and no irish border.

Its an indisputable fact that if we are on wto rules or we get a deal that allows us to set our own tarriffs then we could just set zero tarriffs on some imports that suit us.

Name me 3 countries on WTO only

Before we joined the EEC we had cheaper food but we ended up with higher prices thanks to the EU.  The EU is a socialist protection racket, we buy off eachother even though its cheaper elsewhere.

So we have a market for goods with protection for UK industry and a level playing field with greater bargaining power than the USA, remind me what the problem is?

 A Canada style free trade agreement with no restrictions on services and no irish border.

ah well good luck

“A Canada style free trade agreement with no restrictions on services and no irish border.”

I think you just described EU membership….

Kimbers, I didn’t read it in the sun believe it or not.  Its an indisputable fact that if we are on wto rules or we get a deal that allows us to set our own tarriffs then we could just set zero tarriffs on some imports that suit us.

Im curious to know where you get your info about WTO tarifs? because you are very confused

Oh Dickens!

At least I got to type that……

Why don’t you stop the foreplay and just go for it?

How many posts before you start one with “You’ll probably think I’m racist, but……”?

Why did you state that ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing?

If you didn’t really mean it and you were just ‘throwing a bone’, then it’s back under the bridge for you.

pjm1974 I said ‘less’ multiculturalism.  As stated this was a bit of bone I threw in, but theres no doubt multiculturalism causes social problems hence why countries encourage integration.  Take the case of the Swiss immigration official that said no to the lady that wouldn’t shake his hand, seems fair enough to me, maybe a bit extreme though.  But Burkas need to go, there’s no place for them in a civilised society.

Maybe Dickens can share his Northern Ireland solution for us ?

dickens

I also have a plan, it involves me inventing FTL travel so I can see I c-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate

Why did you state that ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing?

Look at the published research data above.

A Canada style free trade agreement with no restrictions on services and no irish border.

If you were the EU, and some other country wanted to leave and suggested that lot which basically undermines the entire framework of the EU, would you actually agree to it?

what the dickens!

as you have no idea about how WTO works

have a read  http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/no-deal-the-wto-option/

as the WTO is a cartel where other nations get to tell us what to do (unlike EU membership we dont get a vote on it or any elected representation) it will involve a significant loss of sovereihgnity

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41581705

(I call ninfan/labrat/zulu-11 btw)

welshfarmer fair enough I did miss out a bit! I missed out no jurisdiction of the ECJ, no restrictions of freedom of movement, freedom to trade worldwide.  I realise its a tall order but lets see, aim high!

On the Irish border, there already is a border.  Even if a more robust one was put in, I thinks there’s around 200 entry points.  Its just not realistic to put a hard border in and its unacceptable to the North and the Republic.  Technology can play a part.  Realistically 99% of goods going over the border will be a fella filling his van up with whatever is cheaper over the border.  For heavy goods that are far easier to track it shouldn’t be an issue.

are Z11 & chewy going all brexit because Trumps just had 3 court cases go against him & his cronies

Realistically 99% of goods going over the border will be a fella filling his van up with whatever is cheaper over the border.

but you said thered be less corruption?

Look at the published research data above.

you obviously didn’t and just read the posts precis….. from the research papers conclusions the final paragraph….

However, it is difficult to evaluate precisely the size of these effects because of the strong correlation of ethnolinguistic fractionalization variables with other potential explanatory variables, especially geographical ones. In the end one has to use theory and priors to interpret our partial correlations.

what the dickens!

as you have no idea about how WTO works

have a read  <span class=”skimlinks-unlinked”>http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/no-deal-the-wto-option</span>/

as the WTO is a cartel where other nations get to tell us what to do (unlike EU membership we dont get a vote on it or any elected representation) it will involve a significant loss of sovereihgnity

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41581705

Kimbers not seen that article.  Ive scanned through it and it does raise some questions.  I’ll have a better look tomorrow.  WTO rules stipulate they can’t discriminate so I guess if a countrys own tarriffs arent working or them they will just change them.

But I’m confident we’ll get a deal.  Probably not the wish list I would want but Mutter Merkel won’t want to lose 15% of all german car sales.

Realistically 99% of goods going over the border will be a fella filling his van up with whatever is cheaper over the border.

but you said thered be less corruption?

Permitted if it is personal or small business use.