Then they are fools kimbers – immigration is not only needed it’s a major positive

but exactly – as moaners are all too keen to point out, the EU is now growing strongly and the € is also strong.

Still if the BBC lead the news with distorting analysis , no surprise that moaners follow suit.

given the one sided nature of your analysis of the figures, you are in no position to  lambaste anyone, for distortion.

Heal thyself

Kimbers the ONS data plots nicely with the timing of the different business cycles

But amusing to see the statistical abuse being used nonetheless!!!

Kimbers the ONS data plots nicely with the timing of the different business cycles

Correlation does not equal causation. If we’re doing statistical abuse, then you’ve just broken rule 101 there.

Brexiter delighted his corner shop taken over by miserable British bastard

Then they are fools kimbers – immigration is not only needed it’s a major positive

Which is why the current government keeps going back to it’s 10,000 target, why they took so long to reassure people about their future rights – people will have decided to leave or take up other positions, worked to make sure business knew what was going on so they could plan etc.

None of that happened and the impact is being felt.

I guess I could read your post better and say the government have been fools to mess about with this and underestimate the value immigration brings to the UK.

Individuals leaving can take their positive impact to any one of 27 countries.

It doesn’t zokes, true. Well done

unless of course you care trying to lie about the impact of Brexshit 😏

As a supporter of FoM and encouraging immigration  into the Uk, I would agree with your comment about government underestimating the value of immigration. The same goes for HM Oppo

unless of course you care trying to lie about the impact of Brexshit 😏

Show me where I’ve been talking about immigration figures recently

The more you feed him, the greater the waste of time and space in this thread.

You singular??? Why would I be interested in what you singular said?

The more you feed him, the greater the waste of time and space in this thread.

Amen to that. Leave the Mogglodyte alone.

So brexit is not making anybody leave and anyone who leaves is an idiot?

Anyone who claims brexit is the reason for leaving is obviously just using it as an excuse for being an idiot and falling for the hysteria of being told you can’t stay or your future is not certain.

In fact it’s all awesome and even better than before. It’s like Sean Spicer is suddenly back in the game.

Yes – you just keep on abusing stats to “feed” the undemocratic agenda

learning from the leavers – when the facts don’t fit, just make it up…

I did stop feeding him for a while. Sadly, it didn’t stop the waste of space and time. I think he’s autotrophic.

If he’s going to complain about something he’s done in the same post as the complaint, then sure I’ll highlight his foolishness.

No mike

Brexshit is one of several factors but as elsewhere it’s impact is being grossly and deliberately distorted for effect

The idiotic bit is the idea that immigration has not had a positive impact on UK economy. It’s has and will (hopefully) continue to do so.

Hence I am glad that EU immigration remains at the top end of the longer term trend. Even if that facts doesn’t suit the moaning narrative

Long since become a self referential joke. Let him troll himself. Just carry on with the “undemocratic behaviour” (or discussing the state of the political situation as others would call it).

Hurty, you just did exactly the same re: stats. Pathetic. Present your interpretation of the stats as opinion and we might get somewhere. Keep pretending the opinion of a flunked teacher is fact whilst accusing others of lying and yes, you’ll be very counterproductive in any debate.

Well you guys can keep abusing stats and those who prefer facts to your fiction

The rest can look at figure 3 of the ONS release and make their own minds up

it’s very clear

Brexshit is one of several factors but as elsewhere it’s impact is being grossly and deliberately distorted for effect

Taken from a report? A data set? interviews with people leaving the UK? Drop us the link and we can all take a look.

The first bit – already quoted directly from ONS

The second bit – see above (kimbers sensible interpretation excluded)

Ah Fig 3…

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/february2018

Since the vote there has been a trend of higher emigration and reducing immigration, what is that proving again?

teamhurtmore

Hence I am glad that EU immigration remains at the top end of the longer term trend. Even if that facts doesn’t suit the moaning narrative

The number of EU citizens coming to the UK (220,000) decreased by 47,000 over the last year and is now at a level comparable with 2014 … The number leaving the UK (130,000) is the highest recorded level since 2008. As a result, EU net migration has now returned to the level last seen in 2012.

Ask Zokes mike – he’s the authority on causation

yes kilo – look at the data. We are back to the top end of previous ranges.

Ask yourself why we deviated from then in the first place – we may have mentioned different business cycles before and got away with it

Just looked at it. It shows EU immigration, emigration, and the net result. Nowhere does figure three of the latest ONS release is any inference of causation made.

Ask Zokes mike – he’s the authority on causation

When it comes to statistical inference, yeah, relative to the average punter I probably am. That’s because I deal with complex data for my job on a daily basis. However, in the case of that figure, anyone who paid attention at GCSE maths could tell you that it provides no information on causation.

Correct zokes the ONS avoids the hyperbole and abuse favoured by others – hence my earlier comment about preferring to go directly to the source

What’s the expression – QED

refer to section 2 – statisticians comment

pity the Beeb didn’t read that bit/chose to ignore it

 That’s because I deal with complex data for my job

Clearly, you’re not the only one.

Correct zokes the ONS avoids the hyperbole and abuse favoured by others – hence my earlier comment about preferring to go directly to the source

So, why are you drawing causation from it?

“Brexit could well be a factor in people’s decision to move to or from the UK, but people’s decision to migrate is complicated and can be influenced by lots of different reasons.”

From the Stats comment, the UK does not collect the data to draw the conclusion however…

Closing of EU offices, loss of research, documented cases of harassment and plenty of anecdotal evidence of people leaving due to uncertainty.

It’s impossible to understand why people didn’t come via surveys and research as you didn’t know who was thinking about it, however we can look at the events and current political climate and make a resonable guess as to the factors involved.

Would you move to a country for shakey job prospects and limited support?

If anyone needs a few minutes distraction, somebody is running a twitter account for the Irish Border (@borderirish).

This was the beginning of a thread detailing the Border’s visit to Chequers to eavesdrop on the loons’ away day. 🙂

(The very first tweet contains the “f”-word, in case that might be a problem for anyone at work.)

https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/966433624856956929

I didn’t.

I welcomed the fact the we continue to attract immigration from the EU and non-EU countries despite Brexshit.

Responding to kimbers point I did note some correlation but made no causal link. Despite your claim to being an expert here – or merely you hasty desire to troll – you jumped to making a false claim to create a false argument. I corrected you but you carried on. A trend that we see frequently. Hence I can add the right testicle to the left one.

to get a response

Why indeed mike and yet more do than in the past – excluding the spike in the data

encouraging and refreshing at the same time. You could join me in welcoming them, not scaring them with false stories. Your choice

I didn’t.

Apart from where you criticised others for doing it whilst doing so yourself, you mean?

Kimbers the ONS data plots nicely with the timing of the different business cycles

But amusing to see the statistical abuse being used nonetheless!!!

You are aware of how the internet works, aren’t you? You know, the bit where when you write stuff down and it stays there for others to read?

Plots nicely – as an expert does that refer to correlation or causation?

Its great that people can read – true. Both the original post and the follow up saying “it doesn’t zokes, true”. The internet is great isn’t it

So you’re moving away from the idea that it might be business cycles, and accept that it might also be to do with some of the factors Mike and others have raised?

Only you seemed very forthright before when dismissing that it had anything to do with Brexit

I posted the same quote a mike earlier. The beauty of the internet everyone can read. I even clarified it too. But you keep making things up.

While you are here and as an expert, can I repeat my request for clarification? “Plots nicely” – refers to correlation or causation in the eyes of an expert?

“Plots nicely” on its own implies correlation, you know that.

However, “plots nicely” whilst denouncing others’ interpretations of the same data implies that you think your explanation has greater power than theirs, and that’s when we’re getting back to causation again.

Thank you. The first part of your reply makes sense. Glad we have cleared that up.

I denounced others doing something different and drawing causal links. So we agree. Now you can direct your misplaced ire to the correct places.

You will note that I deliberately avoided making direct causal links but did suggest looking at LT trends for a bit of perspective too. You could try the same if you like?