Viewing 40 posts - 81 through 120 (of 198 total)
  • English Exams
  • Premier Icon BillMC
    Full Member

    Oxford has been generous sticking to their post-interview offers but it does beg the question of who did they make the offers to? How Eton evolves into Merton.

    Premier Icon stumpyjon
    Full Member

    Kelvin, your sort of right, it’s not the fact they are independent schools, it’s the fact that for most of their subjects they don’t enter enough candidates to build up useful statistical data, so they just used the centre assessed grades which were generally inflated across the board..

    Not all private schools have seen grade inflation, same true for state grammar schools, I know of at least 2 well performing grammar schools whose results are way down from where they normally are. Also bear in mind a lot of private schools do CAIE exams which state schools aren’t allowed to do, apples and pears, the CAIE exams are known to be easier and that exam board is outside of Ofqual, their exam moderation seems to have been even more mental than Ofqual.

    Ofqual have not withdrawn the whole appeals process, just the guidance around what constituted a mock exam (which actually looked quite reasonable).

    Personally I feel sorry for everyone involved, including Ofqual, the government has done it’s usual, make an arbitrary decision on the fly, leave others to pick up the pieces and the politically interfere at the last moment when they don’t like the result. The only good thing to come out of this is they’ll never cancel exams again.

    Expecting the GCSE results to be delayed now, the fall out from them will be even bigger.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Full Member

    One thing is certain, a group of statisticians will be having a pretty hard weekend running code on the effects of alternative appeals processes.

    I still think my suggestion may have proved more reliable.

    I noted that only 0.3% of exams dropped three grades from predicted. I can easily believe that this is aligned with annual data. But 0.3% of 750k sittings is 2250 results. If independent distributed, the probability of at least one of three being downgraded is 1-0.997^3 which is 0.89%. Hence about 2500 pupils will have received at least one three-grade drop. Some two drops and some all three.

    Algorithms are poor at dealing with outliers because the assumptions at the extremes tend to be poorly known or violated. Social media is ALL about extremes.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Social media is ALL about extremes.

    Turns out that is a very unpopular opinion to hold just now. Still, the abuse I got for trying to put some info and perspective on what has undoubtedly been a shitshow for those unfortunately affected by it has led to me finally coming off FB, so there’s a silver lining to the cloud.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Full Member

    I don’t do FB and Twitter for anything other than a few photos. But I do do perspective and read source material.

    And yes I agree it is terrible for some. My nephew has been downgraded from a distinction in one of his subjects to a U.

    Premier Icon binners
    Full Member

    My nephew has been downgraded from a distinction in one of his subjects to a U.

    I was reading similar horror stories in yesterday’s Guardian. How is that even possible? It shows just how catastrophically wrong they’ve got this.

    My own 16-year-old daughter is now ridiculously anxious about her GCSE results next Thursday. Her projected grades and her mocks results were great, but with examples like this of such bizarre anomalies, its no wonder she’s so worried.

    What I find unforgivable about this utter shambles is that nobody responsible for this total shambles seems to care about both the short-term and long-term effects of this on so many young people

    Its a disgrace

    Premier Icon colournoise
    Full Member

    look into who developed and applied the algorithm and surrounding rules, and how they are linked to Gove& Cummings

    Deliberately tough to find out. Those involved had to sign an NDA and those that refused to do so were excluded from the process. Which in itself obviously stinks – why does this algorithm need to be secret?

    Premier Icon colournoise
    Full Member

    My own 16-year-old daughter is now ridiculously anxious about her GCSE results next Thursday. Her projected grades and her mocks results were great, but with examples like this of such bizarre anomalies, its no wonder she’s so worried.

    The whisper is that 97% of next Thursday’s grades will be affected by the algorithm – much higher than for A Levels. The clusterfun looks set to continue and escalate.

    Premier Icon BillMC
    Full Member

    For people without capital, education is almost the only route to improve your lot and do something you’re interested in, or used to be. I cannot imagine the fury of these students, parents, teachers. Maybe it’s a strategy that the state school students are to ‘study out to help out’ in the new universities, like Mr Cleverly at Thames Valley.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Full Member

    why does this algorithm need to be secret?

    It isn’t. Ofqual published a 300 page interim report on the methodology and performance. The interesting point is that it is “interim”. Maybe they plan an update based on the errr feedback.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-gcse-as-a-levels-in-summer-2020-interim-report

    I’ve read it. Spare a thought for the poor statisticians charged with producing something that sounds simple but is technically challenging. Especially as I have said when it comes to outliers in large populations.

    Prediction to within one grade is 1
    Actually very good. Better than teacher performance in fact. The mistake was not to adopt this as the mantra rather than retain absolutes for decision making. Hence passing the problem onto universities.

    Which looks like it’s going to happen anyway.

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
    Full Member

    So if i understand right, it’s a bit like taking the results of the last however many 100m world championships and working out what the average time would be for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. Then run the race and see who comes in each position, and then assign them the time for that. No need to time it any longer.

    It does mean that Usain Bolt’s no longer the fastest man in the world, because stats say 100m runners can’t run that fast. Seems fair.

    Premier Icon convert
    Full Member

    Then run the race and see who comes in each position, and then assign them the time for that. No need to time it any longer.

    Not quite – The race would not be run and everyone would binge watch netflix in the athlete’s village. Instead, David Coleman would have been asked to decide the rank order he thought they would have come in the race and then the algorithm would have assigned them a time for their predicted position. If last year one of the athletes had snapped his hamstring and limped over the line 10 minutes after the penultimate placed athlete (a la Derek Redmond) one of this years athletes would also be given a time of 10min 10secs too – to make it fair for everyone.

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
    Full Member

    Instead, David Coleman would have been asked to decide the rank order

    Quite extraordinary!

    Premier Icon colournoise
    Full Member

    why does this algorithm need to be secret?
    It isn’t. Ofqual published a 300 page interim report on the methodology and performance. The interesting point is that it is “interim”. Maybe they plan an update based on the errr feedback.

    Absolutely correct. Apologies. I got caught up in the (commentaries on) reports of groups being denied participation in its development due to refusal to sign an NDA.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Full Member

    For the 100m, every country would provide a predicted time for their athletes. All the times would be ranked and then adjusted to match their previous country’s performance. Never won a silver medal In the past? Too bad, your country will do poorly due to its historic performance. Jamaica has had a good sprinting team, but an exceptional athlete will be downgraded. USA might fare better

    Of course if your from that (private) sprinting nation, the Faroe Islands, well there are no previous predictions, so if you said 8.99 was your time, congratulations! You just won gold.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    it’s not the fact they are independent schools

    Yes it is. Oh, you mean that’s not the reason given? Right you are. I understand (just about) how the algorithm works… I’m suggesting that the big f obvious flaw that it downgrades state school pupils and not private school pupils should have meant that it was not fit for purpose, and another methodology sought. Unless those involved, and those who gave them the task, didn’t care, or worse, were content with, baking that unfairness into the system.

    Premier Icon stumpyjon
    Full Member

    Kelvin, I don’t think that’s right at all, the current government don’t give a monkey’s about anyone. I also think you’re giving them far too much credit to think they even assesed the impact of the grading process, yet alone thinking, hey that works, it gives private school kids the advantage.

    TiReds post above explains what happens at the bottom of the grading structure. I’ve explained what’s happened at the top, small schools, CAG used rather than algorithm, different exam board to state schools. If you want to go all reactionary have a go at the fact the exams open to private schools (which have a reputation for being easier) are outside of Ofqual and not available to state schools.

    Premier Icon dannyh
    Full Member

    Isn’t it about time Gavin Williamson (aka Private Pike) threatened an exam board with a pint-sized aircraft carrier or something?

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    If you want to go all reactionary

    The bias against state schools can happen more than once, be it deliberate or uncaring.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    The waters are being tested for a Uturn…

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    When IDS is proposing a human solution, we really have gone down a rabbit hole.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Full Member

    The idea of Iain Duncan Smith doing something ‘in a human way’ is a bit worrying. I presume he means internment camps.

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
    Full Member

    It’s a spelling mistake. He means humane. He want students from disadvantaged communities ‘treated’ in a humane way. Allowing anaesthetic before they are sterilised, or something like that.

    Premier Icon dazh
    Full Member

    So Scotland are using teacher assigned grades, and now Northern Ireland. Leaving England once again to be the guinea pigs in Cummings grand experiment of ‘data-led’ government. When are these people going to understand that data, algorithms, technology and clever people with their statistical models can not solve every problem? I see this stuff at work all the time. Bosses who know bugger all asking if we can use AI or ‘Machine Learning’ to solve problems which are completely unsuited to it, and then channeling the lion’s share of R&D money to people who are only too glad to spend it in the belief that everything can be automated. It can’t, and tragically the people who are now finding that out are 18 and 16 year old kids who are seeing their dreams and future plans torn to shreds. Never in my life have I seen a single government policy/action cause such widespread distress and outrage. Boris is done after this, this is his poll tax.

    Premier Icon nickc
    Full Member

    This is what happens when you champion statistics over people’s lives.

    Premier Icon DrJ
    Free Member

    look into who developed and applied the algorithm and surrounding rules, and how they are linked to Gove& Cummings

    Speaking of Cummings …

    Dominic Cummings’ blog reveals he’s behind the A-Levels ‘class war’

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Dazh has it bang on. Moderating involves comparing the work of pupils at different schools/colleges given the same mark/grade, to ensure consistency. What has happened is not moderation, it is capping results to fit an expected distribution of results nationwide… a capping that just happens to not be as harshly applied to the pupils at schools used by the shower in charge of our country right now.

    Premier Icon oldnpastit
    Full Member

    Tories have just given all the private school kids a nice little boost to their futures, at the expense of everyone else.

    A ****-you to us all.

    Premier Icon stumpyjon
    Full Member

    This isn’t data led government, it’s make something up on the fly, leave it to someone else to try and come up with a workable solution, then criticise the solution, demand a different outcome and expect the numbers to back it up. Whats worse is the decisions are now being driven by emotion, should’ve got the algorithms sorted, issued the results to schools in advance (using NDAs), get real world feedback and fine tune the algorithms. Reduce the number of outliers (there will always be some, there are when exams are run, it’s not a totally fair system either).

    For many the U-turns are too late, universities have an admission cap inn place this year, by the time grades have been appealed and approved many of the sought after courses will be filled.

    Premier Icon miketually
    Full Member

    U turn upcoming at 4pm?

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Full Member

    Indeed. Any sightings of a crestfallen Frank Spencer trying to style out his u-turn?

    Premier Icon frankconway
    Full Member

    And…yes, it’s a screeching U-turn; what took them so long?

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Full Member

    Oh, they had to wait until it was confirmed that the pupils had lost their places at their first and second choice universities.

    Premier Icon kentishman
    Free Member

    So where does that leave the students that were moved up by a grade. As my son was given a C but teachers predicted a D.

    Premier Icon mefty
    Free Member

    So where does that leave the students that were moved up by a grade. As my son was given a C but teachers predicted a D.

    He will get a C – statement says better of two systems applies.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    statement says better of two systems applies

    Good move.

    Glad I’m not involved in Uni admissions for this year. Now, will the cap on numbers be removed/raised?

    Premier Icon colournoise
    Full Member

    So the plebs get their assessed grades, and the fee-payers get to keep their upgrades…

    And schools that played strictly by the rules and pre-applied a 3 year trend to their own submissions will lose out relatively, while the chancers get their kids a nice boost.

    So not ideal, but there was really no other way.

    As usual though, dealt with badly. Just an announcement about grades. No advice for universities etc. (although there’s a strong whisper the cap on places will be scrapped). More confusion to come but at least we’ve avoided GCSEs being another huge shitshow on Thursday.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    So not ideal, but there was really no other way.

    Least worst way out of this mess.

    Premier Icon richardk
    Free Member

    You really think the GCSE results will be out on Thursday?  A last minute U turn doesn’t inspire confidence in getting results out on time this week (like I had any confidence in this approach left…)

Viewing 40 posts - 81 through 120 (of 198 total)

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