So, after a nice and dry weekend, is there any lockdown anymore ? I have been playing by the rules and today had my weekly carers trip to my mum’s, she’s 88 and on her own, in our bubble, over on the west side of Renfrewshire.

Roads were mobbed, local RSPB car park and lochside roads (Lochwinnoch) rammed with car and hordes of folk…

I yesterday did a 28 mile back road and gravel ride loop from home and was stunned by the number of large groups of riders on the road and once into Whitelee Windfarm, the big groups of families all stoating about in groups of 6-20 plus…

Seems like the majority seem to think it’s all over now..

ianc – i’m in Lochwinnoch, would love to say it’s generally been fine up until now but it’s been mental since the very start – early on when the advice was “stay the f*ck at home” the park rangers eventually closed the car park at the loch to deter people & folk turned up anyway and either moved the cones or parked on the blind bend just opposite it instead… and that’s even before you take into account the wee dicks cycling down en masse with a big carry oot, who then bump into another group of wee dicks with a big carry out & they all start fighting, it’s been a pain in the arse. /nimby

A bothy reachable by car – surely some kind of oxymoron!

There are a few you can drive to.

A bothy reachable by car – surely some kind of oxymoron!

It depends if you have the key to the gate, know the long way around or just lift the gate of hinges – if any of the previous apply, there are a good few you can get a vehicle to.

feels like the moment we need to add more outdoor liberty and day trips to exercise into the can do list. Otherwise law abiding and covid cautious people are doing it already. Surely once people feel they are breaking the guidelines a bit it is easier to break them a lot. Make them feel they are off the naughty step and we might hold the line on meetings in houses etc where the real damage is done

+1.
And re the motorcyclists…. well surely that has to be one of the most covid-safe activities there is, so I really can’t get too bothered by it.
Of course its easy at the moment as there are no indoor venues available for people to go to. Will be harder to hold the line when these reopen, and we get some normal Scottish summer weather …

I’ve been out of my LA for a ride a couple of times this week, to an area with non muddy and quiet trails. This is rather than the really muddy, cut up and busy local stuff. Not right I admit but strangely it did help my grumpy, old man funk a surprising amount.
The only risk as afar as I can see (also applies to TJ’s pals) is of having an accident which requires local assistance thereby possibly spreading infection.
While I can see why they didn’t change the LA travel restrictions they surely apply less while we are not tiered?

While I can see why they didn’t change the LA travel restrictions they surely apply less while we are not tiered?

There’s a thought.

Again, perhaps down to not being able to legislate for Rule No.1, and if they did away with such clear “don’t leave the authority area” guidance, some plum will head to Findhorn for a ‘pint of milk and a quiet walk’ in their camper, on the basis it is the first quiet place they can find outside Bearsden…

While I can see why they didn’t change the LA travel restrictions they surely apply less while we are not tiered?

I can see funky new variants (current and future) and wanting to be in a position to isolate them to specific areas being the reason used, and arguably legitimately, to keep to LAs even outside of tiers (or were we levels and England tiers, it’s all blending into one in my head now). The fun and games today with the ‘new brazil’ variant being a case in point.

LD – thats within the rules is it not so long as yo did not drive more than 5 miles outside to start?

Yeah but I did and debateably plenty stuff from door. Felt very refreshing despite breaking rule no.1.
Fair point on new variants, hadn’t really occurred to me.

The fun and games today with the ‘new brazil’ variant being a case in point.

Brings a new meaning to ‘get a new Brazilian’….

Must have been 50 cars and vans at the Hayfield today plus 40 others dotted around. All local? Who knows. It was glorious though so I really can’t blame anyone and it’s not like there were any crowded areas on the 40km ride I did.

I got chatting to two ladies up at Ryvoan. They were a bit worried they’d stretched the rules by coming all the way from…..  Grantown 😊

The tiers are going to be different though from the end of April aren’t they? As in different restrictions etc.

Yes the goalposts have been moved going to be harder for some areas to drop tiers 🤔

BBC News – Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56237471

Can’t really argue with that. It’s what should’ve happened from the very start, a harder local lockdown where needed to stamp out any flare ups of infection. With the vaccine roll out infection rates should come down quite quickly I’d have thought anyway.

TBH, areas didn’t move down tiers when they should have (from a numbers perspective) because “reasons”, so they were pretty useless indicators of what level your area would be in anyway.

You just have to wait and be told.

And in the case of Glasgow there’s not even much point waiting to be told. Just assume it will stretch on forever

I’ve got leave for my 40th in the first couple of days of June. Planning on coming up from englandshire to stay at my mum and dads (haven’t seen them since last June).

I’ve played by the rules from the start and will continue to do so, but if I cant make it up then I will be well and truly gutted.

Fingers crossed.

I do think lockdown fatigue is well and truely setting in. Its inevitable really and we will reach a tipping point where the restrictions good in reducing covid is going to do such harm in mental health that the cost / benefit equation is going to change.

And in the case of Glasgow there’s not even much point waiting to be told. Just assume it will stretch on forever

Sadly I think this will be true of an awful lot of areas. 50 cases per 100,000 population means that a total of 250 cases in the entirety of Edinburgh or Glasgow will see the respective city largely shut down. Equally, around 45 – 50 cases spread across the 1,800 square miles of the Borders will have the same outcome.

Think your right there TJ. I reckon the first lockdown anniversary will be a tipping point for most people combined with the start of better weather

Definitely, it’s now been a really long time. It’s been a vastly different experience for those in the cities than those with open space

Yup, just read that link and now thoroughly miserable. Not helped by yesterday’s jag.

4 months since I did anything normal, now throughly **** off by the whole thing. People are now deliberately breaking the rules as they are going off their heads, I can see control being completely lost before long.

Agree with TJ and Grantyboy above – this last year, of which we’ve been under effective house arrest for circa 9 out of last 12 months has been narrated by “stay home to look after granny”. Well now granny has been jabbed and in the news yesterday it was quoted as 80% drop in likelihood of serious illness.

Once people have their vunerable loved ones inoculated and it becomes “stay home to protect someone else’s random vulnerable person” then people will become far less accommodating of any further lockdowns

Sadly I think this will be true of an awful lot of areas. 50 cases per 100,000 population means that a total of 250 cases in the entirety of Edinburgh or Glasgow will see the respective city largely shut down. Equally, around 45 – 50 cases spread across the 1,800 square miles of the Borders will have the same outcome.

Surely the main consideration for determining restrictions should be hospitalisations rather than cases?

That’s a very good point. If there were a 1000 people with only flu like symptoms but nobody requiring hospital treatment why would there be the need to lockdown?

Edit – I suppose mutation is one reason.

National is easy to understand though. Lockdown in borders, d&g, Highland etc as regions will be more frustrating. Imagine commuters from Peebles to Edinburgh cause borders to lockdown when there’s no cases in newcastleton or eyemouth. How granular do you go?

If there were a 1000 people with only flu like symptoms but nobody requiring hospital treatment why would there be the need to lockdown?

That was my thinking. Obviously it’s not quite so simple as there are concerns about new variants and high community prevalence is not a good thing so we’d need to keep some measures to reduce community transmission. However, high levels of restriction would be hard to justify for a virus which does’t cause serious disease and the vaccines are going to get us to that point in the not too distant future.

SG are going to have to change their tune about restrictions.

Every park in Edinburgh was full of folk, in groups or pairs, having picnics and/or tinnies yesterday.

Against the rules obviously, but so prevalent enforcement is now impossible.

As the science crew have said, meeting folk outside is essentially harmless, so they’ll need to allow it so they are taken seriously when enforcing other rules like mixing inside or travel.

TBH, areas didn’t move down tiers when they should have (from a numbers perspective) because “reasons”, so they were pretty useless indicators of what level your area would be in anyway.

You just have to wait and be told.

There never were strict rules on numbers for the transition up/down. Some rough criteria were suggested but it had to be judgement call – if an area went from 0-99 in a week and the threshold was 100 you wouldn’t wait till next week to change, similarly if its taken 6 weeks to go from 120-99 relaxation is bound to great a bounce. Add to that the effects of the neighbouring areas etc. and that the criteria are not just about case numbers but things like test positivity rate and you end up with some sort of dashboard for each area and only move down when almost all the indicators are looking good, but move up as soon as a few indicators look bad.

I think if we remain on the current trajectory its going to be hard to justify not moving back to the old level 4 restrictions – I think that is effectively the plan on 15th March though? Its difficult for them to bring that forward: they’ve promised schools go back as soon as possible, and that’s hard to just do overnight so I think we have 2 more weeks of this.

How granular do you go?

I live in East Ren. If I open my front door, and cross the road, I’m in Glasgow. Half a dozen steps takes me into a different LA area. The nearest supermarket to me is in Glasgow rather than East Ren. It’ll be impossible to be granular about any localised lockdowns

The other complicating factor is if England unlocks much more quickly, which seems likely. It would be pretty easy to exceed those case numbers just from movement of people from England (whether officially permitted or not). Can’t see that ending well.

There never were strict rules on numbers for the transition up/down.

There were – they just weren’t known outwith the group of people making the decisions.

Some rough criteria were suggested but it had to be judgement call – if an area went from 0-99 in a week and the threshold was 100 you wouldn’t wait till next week to change, similarly if its taken 6 weeks to go from 120-99 relaxation is bound to great a bounce. Add to that the effects of the neighbouring areas etc. and that the criteria are not just about case numbers but things like test positivity rate and you end up with some sort of dashboard for each area and only move down when almost all the indicators are looking good, but move up as soon as a few indicators look bad.

All this can and probably was in some sort of decision making process – it’s just likely that the process/thresholds changed quite frequently and it was never openly published.

There’s no reason why it couldn’t be made available – although expecting joe mcpunter to understand it may be a challenge.

Well that has burst my ball.I am in Angus, we are lumped in with Dundee because of the gouging of the NHS. Chances of having any normality back this year are slim,vaccine or not.

I am in Angus, we are lumped in with Dundee because of the gouging of the NHS

Where do you get that idea from? Dundee City is separate from Angus.

As of yesterday Angus was on 52 cases per 100k people and Dundee City 66/100k people.

During the last lockdown it went on hospitals. So Angus, which is fairly spread out was part of Tayside when levels were considered because the hospital you would go to was Ninewells in Dundee.

All primary kids back on the 15th March with blended learning for secondary up to April. Looks like I’ll be back in school full time from the 15th.

Other restrictions might be loosened quicker than first thought.

Our model for blended looks brutal, numbers mean teaching all of say; third year, one day so same lesson 6/7 times. Thankfully only for a couple of weeks.

During the last lockdown it went on hospitals.

No it never otherwise we would have been in tier 2 with South Ayrshire. (or they would have been in tier 3 with us)

@duckman no idea what our blended learning looks like.

This round of blended learning will be very challenging to plan. I have already this afternoon spoken to parents who would prefer to keep their kids off full time until they are back full time. If uptake is only going to be 60%, we need to know this for planning. Parents in S1-S3 will (understandably) want Maths & English as a priority, but so will Senior Phase. With 2m social distancing it will be very difficult. I’d like to se the SG exemplars – for the last round I thought they were quite good.