Political pundits from the Guardian to the Telegraph are suggesting that Trump could benefit significantly from the criminal charges :

https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/960267/teflon-don-could-trump-benefit-from-indictment

The BBC midday news also suggested that Trump could see political advantages from any attempt to prosecute him.

Edit: That link might be behind a paywall so this one should work;

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theweek.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld-news%2F960267%2Fteflon-don-could-trump-benefit-from-indictment

The BBC midday news also suggested that Trump could see political advantages from any attempt to prosecute him.

The polling suggests otherwise.

Democrats polled 88% that this should disqualify him from being allowed to run (and presumably the other 12 are split between “let him, it’ll be a car crash” and “would say no regardless because it’s still a democracy”.

Republicans it’s 23%. How many of those 23% would continue that thought to the point of not voting for him in an election is debatable, but US elections are won in a swing state by 49/51% seemingly every time. It doesn’t take much to tip that.

Caveat, that’s people who identify one way or the other. Could well be that the middle ground is somewhere in between, but that would mean he’s done for (if 23%-88% of swing voters don’t think he should be allowed to run, then they’re certainly not voting for him).

‘Could’ is doing some heavy lifting in The Week article.
Just as easy to say and pontificate that ‘…trump is unlikely to see any advantage or benefit from criminal charges’.
I think it’s likely that criminal charges will turn most undecideds against trump and ‘soft republicans’ will back any candidate other than him.

Trump lost the popular vote in both presidential elections. The last midterm was a disaster for the Republicans and candidates who went full MAGA underperformed the generic Republican vote. To win the presidency back, he has to persuade people who voted for Biden to switch their votes, or at least not vote. Trump being indicted might energize his base but it will also energize the Democrat base and it’s not going to make anyone who voted against Trump suddenly decide to vote for him. Being indicted is never going to help him get elected.

You can argue this will successfully gin up the cult-dedicated Fox Nation subscribing type base but those ppl are already in the bag. And they turn off everyone else. -end-

— Amanda Carpenter (@amandacarpenter) March 31, 2023

some heavy lifting in The Week article.

What on earth are you talking about “heavy lifting” in The Week article?

They are simply quoting political commentators. Some of them, such as the Guardian’s Washington D.C. bureau chief, are fairly well qualified to express a credible appraisal of how the latest development might affect Trump’s political ambitions.

Obviously I don’t expect you to agree with them because presumably you believe that you are better informed.

But I don’t think that quoting is variety of very different sources amounts to “heavy lifting” by the Week.

Is “heavy lifting” now the term to be used when you can’t deny the premise of a point??

Trump being indicted might energize his base but it will also energize the Democrat base and it’s not going to make anyone who voted against Trump suddenly decide to vote for him.

Which presumably is why the Guardian’s man talks about “at least in the short term”, ie, securing the Republican nomination I imagine.

I guess it also largely depends on how things pan out – acquittal is likely to give him a boost. BBC News mentioned that legal issues surrounding political funds are historically very difficult to prove in the US.

BBC News mentioned that legal issues surrounding political funds are historically very difficult to prove in the US.

We don’t know what the charges are. They may be tax violations rather than campaign fund violations.

My own guess: this case will turn out to be about Trump cheating on his taxes (again): allegedly creating false invoices so as to convert his payoff to Stormy Daniels into a legal bill to his lawyer – and then deducting the fake legal bill from his taxable income.

— David Frum (@davidfrum) March 31, 2023

He’ll get away with this won’t he?

As mentioned above though, he has all the votes he will ever get and is doing nothing to win over Dem votes. Probably the best we can hope for. Noisy but impotent outside of the True Believers he already has.

BBC

Well, whether s/he had/not an affair is really a non-issue where two consenting adults are concerned IMO and especially where money exchanged hand for the purpose. Not because of who she is btw. She has taken the money if that is true then she broke the agreement between them. i.e. one of the unspoken rules.

I think she has just put her life in danger by getting herself entangled in a highly polarised politics. If not careful the danger might come when she least expected.

Democrats that want to end Trump political career doesn’t have a clue how to do it properly but this will backfire, even if Trump is guilty of having an affair or paying money to cover up.

Every one keeps going on about swing voters, but that really isn’t how the last election played out, there were **** all republicans voters who swung to Biden, in fact Trump got better numbers than in 2016. However the anti Trump vote energised more traditionally disenfranchised voters to vote dems who increased their numbers even more.

IMO it is about keeping those voters engaged that is going to win the next election again or not, and I doubt this will be enough to keep them onside when they are continuing to suffer financially. The dems need to deliver more on the day job rather than relying on whatever the US version of “Westminster bubble politics” is.

He’ll get away with this won’t he?

I think Michael Cohen mentioned in his book that DT had expensed the payments so that he got the Trump corp to pay for them, so effectively avoided paying tax on a “benefit in kind”.

The Trump corp has already been found guilty of exactly this with all of the free houses/schools/cars for various Trump executives.

I know that if I tried to expense paying off a porn star my employer would not approve my expenses claim – Concur doesn’t even have a category for that. And if they *did* approve it I feel like HMRC would be very unimpressed.

If he doesn’t get prosecuted it seems like one law for Trump and another one for the rest of us.

If he doesn’t get prosecuted it seems like one law for Trump and another one for the rest of us.

Couldn’t agree more but I’m no longer naive enough to think we are all equal, power really does buy a near immunity for all but the most egregious of transgressions here and in the USA. Boris, Trump etc etc.

he has all the votes he will ever get and is doing nothing to win over Dem votes.

It depends how it goes. Plenty of people are likely to see this as purely politically motivated, which of course is what it is – the fact that the District Attorney is a Democrat isn’t some sort of weird coincidence.

If he is seen to be the victim of a politically motivated trial, and he’s very good at playing the victim, it could certainly win him votes from independents/undecided/swing voters.

At the 2020 presidential election Trump received over 10 million more votes than he received in the 2016 presidential election, so despite all the incompetence and blunders he has the ability to make people vote for him who previously hadn’t.

No one knows exactly what these charges relate to but even if he is not acquited it looks possible that it might just result in a fine and not bar him from standing.

Pursuing him for insurrection and sedition would be a whole new ball game. For a start many Republican lawmakers, included the hard-right Republican vice President, were horrified by his behaviour.

It wouldn’t be seen so much as a politically motivated trial but more one in defence of democracy and the constitution.

The maximum penalty for sedition is 20 years, a guilty verdict would bar him from standing next presidential election.

If the US judicial system can’t pursue him on such a serious charge then he is above the law in a meaningful way.

It wouldn’t be seen so much as a politically motivated trial but more one in defence of democracy and the constitution.

But according to one particular loudmouth supporter, America isn’t a democracy anyway, it’s a Republic. Hence no need to defend it from anyone other than Far-Left Libtards.

What I’d love to see happen:

Loudmouth supporters aside I think it is fair to say that most Americans pride themselves in living in a democracy, and passionately believe in the supremacy of the US constitution.

“If he doesn’t get prosecuted it seems like one law for Trump and another one for the rest of us.”

He’s not being prosecuted by the government, he’s being prosecuted by the State of New York. Technically the charge will probably be classed as money laundering.

New York is one of the Worlds leading financial centres, they don’t look lightly on that sort of thing.

It’s only political if you make it so, either as a pathetic defence or as an attempt to rationalise the best way to get Trump.

It’s all about the rule of law and the need for it to be re-established in the US. Likely the other cases regarding election interference in Georgia and insurrection in Washington will drop on his doormat before this case has been resolved and he’ll be facing a triple threat.

And as I mentioned earlier, let the cosplay militias go apes**t too If they want to. Lock him up, Lock them up too if they break the law. If they come out all guns blazing then shoot them.

If the 2nd amendment notion that citizens need to be armed with military grade weapons in order to protect themselves from government tyranny isn’t challenged now then the US is doomed. There will come a point when the US will start to sink under the weight of guns, never mind rising sea levels.

The question is… Was a 5 minute wriggle with a porn star worth it?

What it’ll probably be like:

They are really terrified that he’ll win another election aren’t they. Still amazes me what the Bush family and the Clintons got up to and got away with. Its naïve in the extreme to believe that Trump is the first one to do something dodgy. The rest just got away with it. They’re all cut from the same cloth.

“The rest just got away with it. They’re all cut from the same cloth.”

IIRC, neither Bush nor Clinton tried to mount an insurrection at the Capitol Building…

The prosecution may boost support for his run for the Republican candidacy, but hurt his subsequent chance in the presidential election.

Which I quite like

^^ Ditto.

The problem is that he is consistently underestimated. Plenty of people dismissed the possibility of Trump ever becoming US president.

I guess much would depend who the Democrat candidate will be. Trump was significantly helped by the fact that the Democrats chose Clinton in 2016.

(Unashamedly stolen from Twitter).

If we are doing that. From the daily show.
“Hard to believe that Donald Trump having sex resulted in something worse for him than Don Jr.”

^ bravo

Plenty of people are likely to see this as purely politically motivated, which of course is what it is – the fact that the District Attorney is a Democrat isn’t some sort of weird coincidence

Plenty of people are likely to see it that way but it was the grand jury that decided to charge, not the da.

Do you think that if the D.A. had been a Republican we would be in the same place? I believe that it is the D.A. who decides what a grand jury investigates.

No, not at all. Also NY is obviously a pretty liberal place.

The question is… Was a 5 minute wriggle with a porn star worth it?

The detail I’m enjoying is that he’s not being indicted for cheating on his wife with a porn star, or the fact that he lied about it and paid her off so he could get elected, it’s because he claimed it as a business expense the greedy little turd

Is anyone else wondering what face he’s going to go for on the mugshot? A smug ‘**** you’ smile? Or an attempt at stern and presidential?

Or scowl like a petulant adolescent

Do you think that if the D.A. had been a Republican we would be in the same place?

Equally, its highly likely a Republican DA would turn a blind eye to “obvious/flagrant” white collar crime by one of their own…

No one is naive enough to dispute that there’s an element political motivation to this but Republicans do this all the time and shrug their shoulder (at most). It’s in the Democrat make up to get hung up about shit like this but, frankly, it’s karma…he’s had this coming for a very long time (and, for the record, he’s still innocent until proven guilty…………)

It’s in the Democrat make up to get hung up about shit like this

The issue isn’t about getting hung up, the issue is the effect it will have on Trump’s political ambitions.

Central to Trump’s appeal is the claim that he is anti-establishment, and central to this narrative is the claim of deep state left-wing conspiracies.

If you wanted to bolster that narrative hounding him over relatively minor stuff that happened a few years ago would be quite a good way to go about it.

I say relatively minor because it is in comparison to the charges of perjury and obstruction of justice which Bill Clinton faced. And certainly relatively minor in comparison to charges of sedition which he should be facing.

What happened at the United States Capitol should result in Donald Trump’s political career being permanently destroyed, and the evidence is overwhelming. So why is he being pursued over minor stuff which could possibly play into his tiny hands?

It will be interesting to watch how he deals with being tried with a female judge.

Will he be able to keep his mouth shut when admonished or fight back and end up inside for an indeterminate stretch due to contempt and an inability to apologise to a woman in charge?

So why is he being pursued over minor stuff which could possibly play into his tiny hands?

the rest of it is in the post i reckon. this is the start. maybe the USA needs to have that serious conversation that the proud boys and the rest of the gravy seals think is their due. maybe this is how it happens.

So why is he being pursued over minor stuff which could possibly play into his tiny hands?

There’s at least three different entities pursing him for various misdemeanors. Are you suggesting they should coordinate their actions? The very fact that there isn’t such coordination should dispell myths of some great anti-Trump conspiracy 😄

Quite right vlad, It will be quite difficult to characterise the forthcoming case in Georgia relating to election interference as partisan or conspiratorial. It was the Republican Secretary of State (Brad Raffensperger) who blew the whistle.

Are you suggesting…..

Well I thought I was suggesting that he should be prosecuted for something which will end his political career, ie sedition/encouraging insurrection, rather than something which a fair few people believe he might possibly milk for his own benefit.

However for whatever reason the fact that I have to repeatedly make the same point suggests that I have obviously failed.

Still, never mind 😀

Edit: Just to be clear my original comment was made in support of this comment made by someone else:

I’m just not quite sure why this is actually so very naughty. I’d far rather see him brought down for what happened on Jan 6th where people died and democracy was properly threatened. That’s what should be sending him to prison.

I am not in the least bit bothered that he is being pursued over Stormy Daniels payment. However as the story has unfurled it has become clear that quite a few pundits believe that Trump could benefit from the belief that he is being victimised.

It will be quite difficult to characterise the forthcoming case in Georgia relating to election interference as partisan or conspiratorial

Sadly not true or more accurately it should be but it wont be. Any semi sane republican will be accused of being a democrat/radical left/liberal/RINO.

Well I thought I was suggesting that he should be prosecuted for something which will end his political career, ie sedition/encouraging insurrection,

You do realise this is still a thing, don’t you? Or if you’ve learnt that the “authorities” (DOJ?) have definitely dropped any possibility of charging him for something related to Jan 6, please do tell cos I may have missed that…

EDIT: as of a few days ago, DOJ still investigating:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/your-guide-to-all-of-the-investigations-into-trump

“maybe the USA needs to have that serious conversation that the proud boys and the rest of the gravy seals think is their due. maybe this is how it happens.”

The sooner the better, it might get a bit messy but if the cosplay militias aren’t put firmly back in their box (rectangular if needs be) then things will get far worse in the not too distant future,

The greatest threat to US democracy is morons with machine guns. As I said earlier, without access to military grade equipment ,I don’t think the ‘reveloutionaries’ would have had the confidence to invade the Capitol Building.