Viewing 40 posts - 18,881 through 18,920 (of 19,094 total)
  • Donald! Trump!
  • Premier Icon Northwind
    Full Member

    What’s that graphic showing? I can’t find a source but I’m guessing that it’s a total of the early votes so far, and some sort of polling to apply a voting expectation for those?

    Premier Icon dissonance
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    All it seems to be showing is that there is, unsurprisingly, an increase in early/postal voting across the board.
    What does make it a bit of an outlier was it was being claimed it was more democrats doing early/postal voting.

    Premier Icon inkster
    Free Member

    I’m guessing that a lot of OAP republicans are getting their votes in early because they know there’s a good chance they’ll die of coronavirus before polling day.

    Premier Icon piemonster
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    What’s the source? Because I can’t find it on TargetSmart website or Twitter as yet?

    Edit, you can select by state here https://targetearly.targetsmart.com

    Premier Icon tinribz
    Free Member

    Think it might just be affiliations of early voters. Don’t understand why you must register a party but meh usa. So not necessarily what they voted?

    Premier Icon Jamze
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    It’s modelled (i.e. they predict who they voted for). This is the National view…

    ‘TargetSmart has developed a proprietary partisanship classification model to determine the likely political affiliation of a voter. This predictive model is trained using survey data and incorporates various data points such as vote history, party affiliation (where available), consumer interests, and demographic information to make a prediction of how likely a person is to align with the Democratic party. Those marked as Unaffiliated did not fall into a score range where we could make a confident prediction of affiliation.’

    Premier Icon 13thfloormonk
    Full Member

    It’s a threat to wherever he chooses to go next. I’d like to think that most places would allow him to be extradited back when SDNY indicts him, but he could grease a few palms to stall that.

    Well he’s just had another golf course approved in Scotland, right next to the one he had approved last time with the promise of new houses, hundreds of jobs etc. which never transpired.

    So whoever’s palm he greased last time is obviously still on the books… ☹

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Full Member

    Yeah, it’s from trumps press sec

    As Jamze points out its not really party registration (michigan doesn’t record that data)

    Even then its assuming registered republicans will vote trump, with his poll numbers amongst oaps through the floor, that’s a big gamble!

    Premier Icon Jamze
    Full Member

    Got her Twitter account back then. She was claiming to Hannity she was permanently banned.

    Premier Icon Jamze
    Full Member

    Trump’s hotel in DC

    Premier Icon tjagain
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    Well he’s just had another golf course approved in Scotland, right next to the one he had approved last time with the promise of new houses, hundreds of jobs etc. which never transpired.

    So whoever’s palm he greased last time is obviously still on the books…

    IIRC last time the council ruled against and were overruled by Salmond / some government flunky

    Premier Icon hols2
    Free Member

    Premier Icon Superficial
    Free Member

    I don’t know, I think a mostly red graph might encourage some otherwise complacent dem-leaners to votes.

    There’s been too much triumphant celebration by the left but I think it’s premature and also potentially risky. Yes, the polls look good right now but if people become complacent then that margin narrows very rapidly.

    Premier Icon Jamze
    Full Member

    Probably the more reliable bit to take from all the targetsmart stuff. 4.5 times the ballots received at this point compared with 2016.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Full Member

    The real worry is that trump will use mail in and early votes as a way to block one’s he thinks will hurt him

    In many (all?) states counting doesn’t start until election day, so there’s ample opportunity for him to dismiss mail in voters etc he has spent ages telling us are fraudulent anyway

    Premier Icon Jamze
    Full Member

    In many (all?) states counting doesn’t start until election day

    I read a NYT article that said most states are now processing and counting mail-in ballots as they come in. Certainly lots of people posting pics of their vote being confirmed as counted on Twitter and stuff.

    ‘Does returning one early mean that it will be counted early?

    Generally, yes.

    “Early arriving vote-by-mail ballots are typically the first ballots counted,” said Chris Miller of the California secretary of state’s office.

    Ballots will be processed as they come in. Legislation passed in response to the pandemic allows for mail-in ballots to be processed and counted sooner than in previous years, up to 29 days before the election.’

    Although is this the type of legislation the Republicans are fighting in the courts?

    Premier Icon hols2
    Free Member

    There’s been too much triumphant celebration by the left but I think it’s premature and also potentially risky. Yes, the polls look good right now but if people become complacent then that margin narrows very rapidly.

    My impression is that anti-Trump voters are incredibly energized to throw him out and want this to be a landslide so they’ll turn out even if they think it’s a safe victory. However…

    Premier Icon hols2
    Free Member

    Premier Icon Northwind
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    Re odds, just think of it like any other odds. A lot of people do seem to be treating a 10% chance of more trump as pretty safe, but would you gamble your house on a 90% bet, or your health, or your life? Probably not.

    Premier Icon hols2
    Free Member

    A lot of people do seem to be treating a 10% chance of more trump as pretty safe, but would you gamble your house on a 90% bet, or your health, or your life? Probably not.

    An election is a bit different to gambling though, so I’m never really sure what people intend by making this analogy. In gambling, you are participating willingly and generally aren’t forced to go all-in on a single bet. For example, if Japan was playing South Africa at rugby and someone offered you 50/50 odds, then putting a solid bet on South Africa would be smart. They aren’t 100% certain to win, but they would be very strong favorites. You wouldn’t bet the house, but betting a month’s pocket money would be reasonable.

    In an election, you are basically a participant whether you like it or not, beyond whether you actually bet money on the outcome. The outcome will affect you whether you vote or not, but for most voters, their vote won’t count for much so whether a rational person would make the effort to vote is more complicated. If you live in California, staying home on election day because the weather sucks is not going to make any difference – the state is utterly dominated by Democrats. If you live in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, etc., your vote is much more valuable, so you have much more interest in voting. Having said that, if I lived in California, I’d definitely vote on the grounds that the bigger the victory margin, the easier it will be for Biden to govern. I suspect a lot of anti-Trump voters feel the same way.

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Full Member

    It’s just a good way to revisualise probability, that’s all. And generally pretty good when people say things like “the polls were wrong last time” or “don’t worry, it’s going to be at least 51% for remain”

    Premier Icon hols2
    Free Member

    The New York Post is running with it, it’s not some internet horseshit.

    Rudy Giuliani gave it to his friends at the Rupert Murdoch owned Post, it wasn’t written by journalists. Management wanted to put journalists’ names on it to try and give it credibility, but they refused so they put the name of an ex-Sean Hannity staffer who is friends with Steve Bannon. The Posts’ own journalists are leaking to the NY Times because they know it’s bogus and don’t want their names associated with it.

    So, no, it’s not internet horseshit, it’s Russian horseshit passed on by Rudy Giuliani (Trump’s lawyer) and Steve Bannon (former Trump strategy advisor).

    Premier Icon GrahamS
    Full Member

    Moderator Kristen Welker of NBC released the six topics for the debate Friday

    Trump is already crying at his Wisconsin rally that Welker is “extraordinarily unfair” and Tweeting much the same:

    Surely the “boo hoo, everyone is against me” narrative is starting to irritate even Republicans?

    Premier Icon Superficial
    Free Member

    Surely the “boo hoo, everyone is against me” narrative is starting to irritate even Republicans?

    It’s politics. You win the game by getting everyone (political allies, media, celebrities and ultimately voters) to support your campaign. If everyone is against you, then you’re just losing the game. Moaning about it makes them you sound impotent.

    The GOP seem to have stuck by Trump for way longer than I thought they would. They have no self-respect at all.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
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    Rudy Giuliani gave it to his friends at the Rupert Murdoch owned Post,

    So Rudy admits he had a laptop he claims contains child porn in his possession for a significant period of time, but chose not to alert the police or FBI so they could make proper enquiries, but instead waited until he could pass it to a mate on a newspaper during an election. Ok, then.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    If Trump loses… he’s not going to stop moaning… and his supporters won’t stop buying into it… I know he didn’t need a majority of votes to become president… but he needs even fewer to sow division for years to come. A Trump loss won’t be a clean break from his presidency for Americans.

    Premier Icon Superficial
    Free Member

    A Trump loss won’t be a clean break from his presidency for Americans.

    Good. Let’s hope the GOP vote is completely split between a more moderate candidate that can appeal to the undecided voter (Mitt Romney has been vocally anti-Trump), and the white trash Trump supporting racists.

    Premier Icon p7eaven
    Free Member

    Nailing colours to the mast. Any more wake up calls, America? Slight aside, isn’t it some kind of code violation to alter the stars and stripes?

    Premier Icon Jamze
    Full Member

    Rudy was flashing an LG laptop on Louder with Crowder that came up on my YouTube feed this morning. A bit puzzled how that supports the story of MacBook Pros being taken to a repair shop.

    Premier Icon richmtb
    Full Member

    Its worth remembering the Electoral college favours Republicans to a fair degree. It’s how Trump managed to become president with 3 million fewer votes than Clinton.

    The Senate is even more biased electorally because of how 2 Senators are allocated to each state.

    There’s an an interesting 3 part documentary on Netflix right now highlighting some of the “quirks” of the US electoral system. It actually makes our messed up FPTP system look fair and representative in comparison.

    Premier Icon hols2
    Free Member

    A Trump loss won’t be a clean break from his presidency for Americans.

    His hard-core supporters are never going to accept him losing as legitimate.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/trump-will-leave-behind-harsh-political-landscape/616771/

    Yet if Democrats win the presidency—and even both houses of Congress—their difficulties will burgeon the day Trump leaves office. Not only must they hold their own coalition together as they contend with the coronavirus and the economic crisis that it created, but they will face fierce opposition from the voters who support Trump despite everything. Far from being chastened into moderating the GOP’s rhetoric and cooperating with a new administration, the remaining elements of a vanquished Republican Party will likely become more extreme. It’s happened before.

    Premier Icon inkster
    Free Member

    p7eaven,

    Since the stars n’ bars has been banned from pretty much everywhere the racists have got to replace it with something.

    Why not replace it with a flag that literally says ‘we are a police state.’

    Premier Icon hols2
    Free Member

    isn’t it some kind of code violation to alter the stars and stripes?

    From what I remember, there was an attempt at making flag burning a crime but the Supreme Court ruled that it was protected speech. This would be the same, I’m pretty sure.

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Full Member

    hols2
    Free Member

    From what I remember, there was an attempt at making flag burning a crime but the Supreme Court ruled that it was protected speech. This would be the same, I’m pretty sure.

    Yeah, but the flag code isn’t law, it’s just basically “how to respect the flag 101”. But we’ve seen in the past that all those flag-lovin’ patriots don’t care when Trump disresgards all that so this is no different

    GrahamS
    Full Member

    Surely the “boo hoo, everyone is against me” narrative is starting to irritate even Republicans?

    Nah, it’s a win win for much of the demographic.

    Poor republican: I’d have been a millionaire if it weren’t for them libruls being against me personally!
    Rich republican: My success is entirely through my own efforts and possibly god’s will and comes despite the entire world being against me. “Dude you got sent to one of the best schools in the world, inherited a million dollars, then got hired by your daddy’s firm” ALL MY OWN EFFORTS. I mean, this is literally Trump’s schtick, it’s totally laughable but people who like to say the same things even though it’s equally laughable can never admit that so it works.

    Sadly “we helped you get where you are and we’ll help other people get where they want to go” doesn’t play well in the US at all. Same applies here, a bit, but as ever they do the same stuff we do but to extremes.

    Premier Icon hols2
    Free Member

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Full Member

    The maniac!

    Premier Icon scuttler
    Full Member

    Looks like Donald’s fired up on roids for a trip around the south west today

    Taking the piss out of Fauci (his distinguished record and something to do with throwing a ball which by all accounts Donald would be utterly shit at)

    Calling CNN dumb bastards

    Accusing Biden and a reporter of being a criminal

    All very presidential. I guess he never read (or dot-to-dot or whatever they use to inform him) the campaign team memo about leaving the hard core Trumpists where they are and going after the floaters….

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/19/donald-trump-joe-biden-coronavirus-covid-19-us-election-live-updates

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    I don’t think he’s listening to anybody. He sacked any grownups and surrounded himself with nutters and lap dogs. He’s running the campaign exactly as he sees fit and dissenting opinions aren’t allowed.

    Premier Icon maccruiskeen
    Full Member

    and going after the floaters….

    He probably thought that was a reference to his high fat diet

    Premier Icon Jamze
    Full Member

    Cuomo joining in too. Been a crazy day

Viewing 40 posts - 18,881 through 18,920 (of 19,094 total)

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