“An ITV poll has recorded the highest support for independence ever recorded with 39% of Welsh people saying they would now vote ‘yes’ in a referendum” #indyWales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 https://t.co/dJgoViaX7s

— YesCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 (@YesCymru) March 4, 2021

Brexit seems to have let the nationalism genie out of the box

Brexit seems to have let the nationalism genie out of the box

Or maybe it’s other folks nationalism that they want away from, ever consider that?

There was a piece on this in tonight’s ITV news.

I think it came across as there is a growing dislike of Westminster government as much as anything else.

I live in the SE but I sympathise with them. It’s easy to say “but they voted for Brexit” just like England did but I’m sure there are a great many that feel totally alienated by the whole mess. Just like a lot of the “Pro Brexit” English do.

I think it came across as there is a growing dislike of Westminster government as much as anything else.

This is something the brexiteers seeded, the belief that experts, elites, distant bureaucrats etc are the problem

Now it’s biting them in the arse

Yes, I think this is actually: “we don’t want to be governed by the Muppets in Westminster”

To be fair, a sentiment probably shared my most people in England by this point.

It is difficult to interpret these numbers. You could ask the most outrageous question, but if posed as if it is a serious issue, you would get a significant number saying yes. The number may have gone up a bit, but there is still a long way to go.

Here’s a link for the interested, yes.cymru are attempting to make/keep independence a separate issue from party politics, it will be interesting to see how that goes. Not sure about the website design if I am being honest, maybe it works better on a small screen.

It’s an interesting question…I was brought up in Wales, and am now back living here, and my own view has changed. I used to be “no, stupid idea”, and am now “hmmm…dunno..worth thinking about”. For me to vote “yes” it would have to come with guaranteed entry into the EU.
However, I think it’s a very long way from 39% apparently supporting it to a majority actually voting for it. (And if Brexit has taught us anything it’s that a decision like that shouldn’t be made on a simple majority, but on a supermajority…say 60%).

+1 on so much being a reaction to the Westminster politics and decisions.

Best not ask Northern Ireland the same question… For historical and contemporary reasons.

And if Brexit has taught us anything it’s that a decision like that shouldn’t be made on a simple majority, but on a supermajority…say 60%

But brexit has set precedence for 50.000000000000001% being adequate. WM will have a tough time explaining why any future referendum needs to be 60% when they themselves considered 51. 8% in an advisory referendum to be an absolute mandate. Every time they try to address it it will look like they are trying to stop welsh/scot/NI independence and support for independence will grow as a result.

I’m in Scotland and was very Pro-union as the only viable means to remain in the EU, as explicitly promised by WM. Since brexit I’m now in the “how much worse could it be?” camp and prepared to take the gamble now given the positive rumblings from the EU.

<span style=”font-size: 0.8rem;”> All hail Boris, last PM of the UK! </span>

Cymref and Cymrexit roll better off the tongue.

Yorkshirexit? (Yes I don’t doubt the rest of the UK would vote for that.)

Can we just expel Westminster from the UK and carry on without them?

As an Englishman born and bred it seems poor form that the Scots, Welsh and even Yorkshire can consider the option of freedom from the tyranny of Westminster but we do not have that option.

Yes, I think this is actually: “we don’t want to be governed by the Muppets in Westminster”

To be fair, a sentiment probably shared my most people in England by this point.

I suspect this is the underlying sentiment.

I’ll be honest, 39% as a high feels like a non story to me. I’d expect that sort of headline in the Mail, whipping up division, rather than a piece raising it for discussion (not a fan of ITV news so not sure how the story was presented)

Can we just expel Westminster from the UK and carry on without them?

As an Englishman born and bred it seems poor form that the Scots, Welsh and even Yorkshire can consider the option of freedom from the tyranny of Westminster but we do not have that option.

I’m up for this. Vote WCA!

Bottle.

Genie out of the bottle.

FFS!

As an Englishman born and bred it seems poor form that the Scots, Welsh and even Yorkshire can consider the option of freedom from the tyranny of Westminster but we do not have that option.

You do have that option though, just create a party that stands for such a change and vote for it

And if Brexit has taught us anything it’s that a decision like that shouldn’t be made on a simple majority, but on a supermajority…say 60%).

No, that can’t work. It has to be a simple majority vote. Can cause some friction if it’s close but it’s the least worst option I think.
Do you want to leave? Requires 60% to do so.
Do you want to remain? Requires 60% to do so.
It’s just how you phrase the question that gets you your answer (if it’s closer than 60/40)
.
You could argue that to change the status quo should require the 60%+ in any vote but can you imagine the fallout if a 59/41 decision was ignored by the powers that be? Or a 52/48? If people express a desire for something that should be enacted.

This is something the brexiteers seeded, the belief that experts, elites, distant bureaucrats etc are the problem

Now it’s biting them in the arse

A bit like how the English newspapers & media have ben pushing the “Scots are living beyond their means and the English are paying”, and then wonder why when polled the English would vote for Scotland to leave.

Old but still relevant.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/vote-yes-scots-and-set-the-english-free

Yes Cymru can get in the sea as far as I’m concerned. They’re big on stickering everything in sight, and bluster but light on details.

For me the real lesson of Brexit is more important than what you’re leaving is where you’re going!

I’ve tweeted them, I’ve emailed them and never got a response. It’s a simple question. Where do they’d want to go? A fully independent Nation without a single trade deal with any other country in the work, no currency and a huge deficit of tax income? Be just an independently governed country ‘under the crown’ like Mann or an independent nation within the EU or something else?

Each option would have a huge impact on the future of Wales, most would mean a generation of economic hardship whist we find our place in the world.

Based on their SM output and more perhaps more importantly the beliefs of their most vocal followers they’re all dreaming of a Socialist Utopia, where we have a new, low value currency so we can compete with Asia and Eastern Europe for manufacturing jobs.

39% isn’t a majority, and 39% of People in Wales don’t want to leave, it’s a gross misinterpretation of the data.

For me the real lesson of Brexit is more important than what you’re leaving is where you’re going!

Very true. A clearly defined, pre agreed where you are going!

So long as I wont need a visa to pop over the boarder to ride my bike I dont mind what they do 🙂

Border!!

39% isn’t a majority, and 39% of People in Wales don’t want to leave, it’s a gross misinterpretation of the data.

Pre the 2014 campaign, support for Scottish Independence was running lower than 39% in the polls. Often in the low 30’s.

Cymru can get in the sea

That’s not how independence works. We’ve gone through this already.

where do they’d want to go?

Some info here
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/yescymru/pages/17/attachments/original/1611574926/independence-in-your-pocket-jan-2021.pdf?1611574926

Yes Cymru can get in the sea as far as I’m concerned. They’re big on stickering everything in sight, and bluster but light on details.

Yeah but

Yes Cymru aren’t a putative government, are they? They aren’t even a political party. It’s up to the political parties to decide that. So you’d need to contact Labour, Plaid etc and ask them what they would do for an independent Wales, if the country were to vote for it.

It puts them and the respective parties in a somewhat different position. If you’re a YC supporter it would make sense to make yourself a Plaid supporter.

I’m just here for the grammatical errors winding up scottroutes

Intresting pendantry here.

I agree @molgrips. Going independent means being independent through left-wing, right-wing and every other -wing governments. yes.cymru does host meetings and discussions in which the economy of a future independent Wales is discussed, I have been to one. But at the moment it seems to be acting as a platform/forum for different people and groups to discuss their ideas about independence. You have to drill through a bit to get to more specific stuff.

a generation of economic hardship whist we find our place in the world.

Hear this a lot as a sentiment but it hides a bigger truth and is frankly only about the immediate future. It is a fudging of the truth that many unionists roll out. How many years of economic misery has Wales suffered? How many more is it going to suffer under eternal Tory rule. Sorry but Scotland’s had generations of unionist rhetoric which was total bull. We could still be in the EU today but aren’t because of the greed and avarice of the Tories.

Intresting pendantry here.

Where?

But at the moment it seems to be acting as a platform/forum for different people and groups to discuss their ideas about independence. You have to drill through a bit to get to more specific stuff.

This is entirely reasonable and probably a good idea. This way, you get a better discussion of the issues and a fair representation of support without it being tied to a political party. There are undoubtedly people who might support independence but don’t like the idea of an SNP government; likewise some who vote for the SNP as an alternative to the others but aren’t in favour of independence. Separating the two is probably a good idea.

I was thinking about independence whilst I was on my bike ride earlier (in Wales naturally). Wales doesn’t have a lot of natural resources, really – but it did. And riding around the places that used to have them, I see a distinct lack of money. So where did it all go? To the rich, of course. Now – this could easily be used as an anti-English statement, but it needn’t be. The issue is NOT that it went to England, it’s that the money went to the rich who in most cases happened to be English or even Scottish. Why? Because these aristocrats owned the land and the mineral rights. And this is the main problem I have with the UK – it’s massively unequal, because of the way the system has been since Norman times. Of course it’s not unique in this. But then look at a country like Norway – it found huge oil reserves and they were exploited for the benefit of the people, rather than funnelled into private pockets.

The older and wiser I get the more fundamentally opposed I become to the way the UK is run. So whilst I despite nationalism on the one hand, I also despise the UK’s inequality. And a smaller independent country such as Wales is likely to be more equal, even if it’s poorer overall. Most of that YC pamphlet up there is rubbish, but it does make the point that smaller countries can change and adapt much more easily – due to far fewer vested interests – and this can be a great benefit.

But brexit has set precedence for 50.000000000000001% being adequate. WM will have a tough time explaining why any future referendum needs to be 60% when they themselves considered 51. 8% in an advisory referendum to be an absolute mandate.

I wasn’t thinking about Westminster being generous enough to allow us to have a little vote…I was thinking about a UDI 😁

 it does make the point that smaller countries can change and adapt much more easily

And a stab at self-determination can be a catalyst for that. This has long been one of the issues for/about the SNP. On the one hand, the should promote the opportunity that independence would provide for a bit of a clean slate. ON the other, doing away with the current socio-economic structures of the UK gives their opponents something to hit them over the head with.

How many years of economic misery has Wales suffered? How many more is it going to suffer under eternal Tory rule.

This sails perilously close to the Leave mantra of “immediate pain for long term gain”. However, at some point there has to be a weighing up of the long-term consequences of remaining in the UK too. There is no status quo.

Would Scots accept some kind of federal solution?

Can we just expel Westminster from the UK and carry on without them?

That sounds like a great idea, and they could be like Rome, a city thats really a country in it’s own right. tourist peeps coming to see Queeny instead of the Pope.

A federal system would be tricky for the UK because there would be just one big component (England – unless you split it up). So unless the English regions play ball you are not going to be able to create a sane system.

A federal system means that some things remain shared. That would likely include foreign policy and the armed forces. See any problem there?

“Hear this a lot as a sentiment but it hides a bigger truth and is frankly only about the immediate future. It is a fudging of the truth that many unionists roll out. How many years of economic misery has Wales suffered? How many more is it going to suffer under eternal Tory rule. Sorry but Scotland’s had generations of unionist rhetoric which was total bull. We could still be in the EU today but aren’t because of the greed and avarice of the Tories”

Interesting how that Wales’ perceived poor economic state is blamed on Tory/Middle England rule, when large parts of Wales have had Labour/Plaid local government for decades, and yet no change is apparently evident? Maybe the Welsh ‘Red wall’ should back a different horse and embrace the change that the Tories can, apparently, bring about 😁

My house voted ourselves out of England. we’re now an anarcho-syndicalist commune. We take it in turns to act as sort of executive officer for the week. but all the decisions of that officer have to be ratified at a special bi-weekly meeting.
👑🥥🏆

Federal system is the only way I see the UK staying together

And that would have to include English regions as well

Something Labour should really get behind

Would Scots accept some kind of federal solution?

I think the ship has probably sailed on that. There’s a minority in Scotland who want no change (in fact an even smaller minority who want to abolish devolution). There’s also a proportion who either really want a federal solution or see it as a good compromise (coming either from a “well at least its not independence and it might shut them up” or a “well it would avoid the risks of independence and might reduce the influence of Westminster”). Had it been on the table in 2014 (“Devomax”) I’m sure it would have been the outright winner; probably to the effect of genuinely crippling the SNP for a generation. Brexit, the vow thats never come to anything meaningful, and absolutely no desire for political reform in England mean its so far from something that is on the table that it isn’t even talked about as an option.

My view, is the only way you could get both sides of the Scottish discussion to see this as something worth looking at would be:

1. Total restructure of Westminster, to focus only on UK wide issues (foreign, federal tax, national infrastructure etc).
2. Abolish the lords, and replace with some sort of new 2nd chamber with none of the weird chronyism it has – people would be there on merit (I don’t even need them to be directly elected; I think there would be an argument that they could be appointed based on some qualifying criteria, but with fixed numbers and much less party politics!).
3. England would need to be split into at least 5 regions + Wales + NI + Scotland. Each of those would have its own parliament – so health and education would be managed by the regions (no way would Lab/Con go for that – their major election topics are those two things!)
4. Each of the parliaments would need to have some tax raising and borrowing powers. [And you’d need to convince say Yorkshire that they want to trust some jumped up councillors with income tax. Anyone who wanted to put the voters off could point to higher rates of tax for above average earners in Scotland!]
5. There would need to be some proportional representation so people feel each person has the same power to change things.

And I think the critical issue would be that each region/nation would need to have the option to negotiate parity with the current NI position with respect to the EU.

Now even if someone comes forward with those suggestions now, it seems a bit like when you tell your boss you have another job offer and suddenly you are worth more money etc. It will sway some, it won’t sway all and many will stay to see how it is but ultimately realise that all the things they say to stop you leaving don’t fix all the underlying issues.

Major political reform will come in the next 30 yrs in the UK – not because some visionary Westminster politician has imagined a way to make the country and its democracy fairer – but because its so broken its the only hope to save it. The only way I can see it happening before irreparable damage to the UK comes about is for the Royal Family to be the visionary and force change by proposing the abolition of the formal monarchy – that seems as unlikely to me as Scotland being part of the union by the middle of the century.

Church is a cymrexiter!

Charlotte Church on independence for Wales pic.twitter.com/1XZqJOo9O9

— Phantom Power (@PhantomPower14) March 19, 2021