@THM – the fact you’ve not replied can only lead me to assume you were trolling… trolling on child poverty?..very crass…

On the contrary, child poverty is an awful thing hence I am relived by progress made in absolute and relative terms over recent and long term periods (tough to combine that with the capitlaism (sic) is awful narrative hey).

As for the projections, it’s a little more complicated though isn’t it? Why is relative poverty expected to increase? Because, earnings growth is expected to rise more strongly….so not quite so black and white as some would like to present. Oh unless THEY were trolling…..Very crass.

Haha… you clearly haven’t read the data and are now just trying to justify your crassness with waffle….

Again on the contrary I have the research in front of me now, do you?

trying to justify your crassness with waffle

Hmm, is it waffle to point out that if average wages fall, poverty, as commonly measured, goes down?

It’s been widely accepted for some years that neither relative or absolute measures of poverty (before or after housing costs) are wholly reliable in isolation, as both can lead to perverse results – but nobody has been able to come up with an alternative measure that doesn’t.

Plus absolute measures are the product on contradictory individual trends that make simple observations fraught with danger. But never mind….

Did anyone else notice the announcement on Thursday last week of widespread job losses and office closures at HMRC?

Over 130 offices from 170 to close, many thousands of jobs to be lost, no local offices left, just strategic sites in (expensive) new city centre locations..? Many offices will close well before the new ones are built, so staff will have little choice but to leave, on expensive exit packages. Huge swathes of the UK will have no coverage by tax inspectors, so who will police the evaders and avoiders?
Who will balance the system, so that those who are honest and pay their taxes are not undercut and competed out by those who avoid or evade?
Where will the deficit closing tax come from now, Mr Osbourne? Oh, silly me, of course he doesn’t want his rich pals to actually pay tax, the whole system is just a burden on (rich) society.

Again on the contrary I have the research in front of me now, do you?

Yes yes I do, if by research you mean a paper aeroplane, it is better than your research though in two ways, it exists and it has a point.

Who will balance the system, so that those who are honest and pay their taxes are not undercut and competed out by those who avoid or evade?

I suspect the answer there is better automation and integration. Much like DVLA databases are increasingly linked together, and thus there is no need for a paper tax disc, paper driving licence counterparts, address changes can be dine online rather than pay posting the licence in etc.

It’s not a huge leap before paper tax returns are extinct, and I would suspect its likely they will be linking your tax in to other databases like your credit score and banking details (especially offshore accounts) with complex algorithms to identify people who may deserve further scrutiny.

The banks fight tooth and nail to protect their data, especially the offshore stuff. Then, the whole point of the grey economy is that it is out of sight of the state. ‘Salesmen’ of wonderful new systems will tell you how powerful their analysis tools are but if the data isn’t there in the first place, how can it be worked?
If there’s no-one there to carry out the tax inspection, how will the expensive data systems make any difference?
Effective and fair taxation should be at the heart of any decent society, paying for the structures that we all need; everything from health and social care to buses, even to libraries.

Yes yes I do, if by research you mean a paper aeroplane, it is better than your research though in two ways, it exists and it has a point.

Boom, tish…

Keep them coming, it’s a slow afternoon.

Effective [efficient] and fair taxation

Does not exist here sadly, it’s a buggers muddle made worse by the shenanigans of successive chancellors. Osbourne is merely the latest in a long list of muddlers and medlars.

Personally, I think the automated tax return system works very well and is much better that the old people-intensive version. Well done HRMC.

Hmm, is it waffle to point out that if average wages fall, poverty, as commonly measured, goes down?

@nifan – good point well made, in defence of not cutting public services and how the figures will hide the fact levels of poverty will get worse…