Visit a kiosk and pay 10% fees? Wow this crypto really is everything it’s cracked up to be 🙂

So when is Bitcoin going to hit $40K?

So, how are all the BC fanatics doing?

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/cryptocurrency-market-bitcoin-ethereum-price-crash-a8491001.html

I do admire the optimism on the last page from some posters.

I wonder how much everyone lost in the end?

At least the buzz around blockchain is dying down as people realise it is actual hot garbage.

“The disconnect between the hype and the reality is significant — I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Rajesh Kandaswamy, an analyst at Gartner Inc. “In terms of actual production use, it’s very rare.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-31/blockchain-once-seen-as-a-corporate-cure-all-suffers-slowdown

My mates talked about investing in Bitcoin 6 months  ago saying “if you do your research it’s fine.”

Funnily enough they don’t talk about it anymore.

 saying “if you do your research it’s fine.”

In fairness that was and is an accurate statement.

Bitcoin is causing a lot of heartbreak and suicides due to the speculative nature of it. It is hail mary money, only put in what you are happy to lose. Its best not to get involved at all for most people.

Millenials think it could be the answer to their problems but ultinately it is just a form of high stakes gambling.

A fool and their money are easily parted – or something like that….

There was a fascinating article in the FT a few weeks back analysing the complete BC block chain to see who owned what. Still completely dominated by a small number of whales who can control the price working together (as they own over 60%). The utopian ideal of democratised currency is a complete fallacy.

The Chainalysis data quantifies this distinct shift in the make-up of bitcoin owners from longer-term investors — those who held the asset for more than a year — to short-term investors who have traded more recently, by analysing how regularly coins have changed hands.

Last November — before December’s pricing peak — the amount of bitcoin held for investment was roughly three times that held by traders.

However, by April 2018, the data show the amount held by investors — about 6m bitcoin — was much closer to the amount held by short-term speculators, with 5.1m bitcoin.

Indeed, Chainalysis estimates that longer-term holders sold at least $30bn worth of bitcoin to new speculators over the December to April period, with half of this movement taking place in December alone.

“This was an exceptional transfer of wealth,” says Philip Gradwell, Chainalysis’ chief economist, who dubs the past six months as bitcoin’s “liquidity event”.

Mr Gradwell argues that this sudden injection of liquidity — the amount of bitcoin available for trading rose by close to 60 per cent over that period — has been a “fundamental driver” behind the recent price decline. At the same time, bitcoin trading volumes have now fallen in tandem with the prices, from close to $4bn daily in December to $1bn today.

So will the price of bitcoin ever surpass December’s peak? Part of the answer lies in who holds bitcoin now that the hype has died down.

Born in 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis, bitcoin is rooted in a libertarian quest for a means of exchange that is unshackled from the central banking system. Proponents — among them, computer experts and political activists — heralded the arrival of an alternative monetary system that could replace fiat currency.

But despite the recent crypto boom, there are few signs that this is happening. According to research published this month by Morgan Stanley, only four of the top 500 US e-commerce merchants accepted cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2018, compared with three at the beginning of 2017.

Chainalysis notes that the “vast majority” of transactions it analysed showed bitcoin being received from exchanges and rarely sent to merchant services to pay for goods or services.

Only a finite number of coin — 21m — can be created. Of this, about 4m are yet to be mined. Just as physical coins can be lost down the back of a sofa, so can bitcoins if users lose or forget the passwords needed to access their online wallets. The Chainalysis data separates out coins it deems to be lost or unused for years — which total 3.7m bitcoin, worth about $28bn.

The proportion of bitcoin it estimates to be held by groups such as exchanges or merchant services held steady between December and April at about 2.2m bitcoin.

Critics argue that bitcoin’s volatility and a lack of fundamental underpinnings disqualifies it as a reliable store of value, and that this is unlikely to change. This leaves droves of new opportunists dabbling in what has been dubbed a “Wild West” marketplace, with regulators still weighing up how best to tackle the space.

“Speculation remains the primary use case for these digital assets; merchant or institutional adoption does not appear to be a primary driver of price,” says Preston Byrne, an English structured finance lawyer and cryptocurrency observer.

Given this breakdown in bitcoin owners, most market watchers do not rule out another rapid price run-up. However, they say this would likely be the random movement of pure speculation or market manipulation rather than anything else.

“It’s very important to stress, this is not in any sense a rational market,” says David Gerard, the author of Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain.

“It’s very thinly traded, very badly structured . . . and it’s stupendously manipulated,” he adds. “Anyone who goes in not realising just how manipulated the crypto markets are will get skinned.”

Some argue there is an art to trading bitcoin regardless — but it is a stressful business that takes nerves and can be addictive. Donnie, a.k.a bitcoin Dad, puts his successes down to careful research, “patience” and avoiding the trap of obsessive, leveraged day trading.

But others are unconvinced that bitcoin millionaires actually show investment nous, drawing parallels with gambling.

“It’s the luck of the draw, where everyone who won the draw seems to feel like they deserved it for being smarter,” Vitalik Buterin, the Russian-Canadian programmer who invented the smart-contract blockchain Ethereum, told the Financial Times recently.
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<h2>Whale watching</h2>
The Chainalysis data also show that the bitcoin marketplace is skewed in terms of wealth distribution. A small cluster of investors — known colloquially as “whales” — capture a hefty proportion of the market, which stands at odds with bitcoin’s mission to democratise finance. This brings its own risks.

Overall, some 1,600 bitcoin wallets — managed by both speculators and investors — contained at least 1,000 bitcoin each in April, according to Chainalysis, collectively holding nearly 5m bitcoin, or close to a third of the available total.

Of those, just under 100 wallets owned by longer-term investors contained between 10,000 and 100,000 bitcoin — so between $75m and $750m at today’s prices.

“This concentration of wealth means that bitcoin is at risk of volatility, as the moves of a small number of people will have a large effect,” says Chainalysis’ Mr Gradwell.

However, the situation suggests bitcoin’s volatility is “of low risk to the wider financial system”, he adds, as “only a small number of people will face large changes in crypto wealth”.

Still, there are opportunities particularly for the larger players to engage in market manipulation, due to the dearth of regulation and existence of informal over-the-counter markets — and this leaves smaller players at a disadvantage.

“When you build up a big enough position in any asset you can move the price,” says Dr Garrick Hileman, head of research at Blockchain and co-founder of Mosaic.io, a platform for market intelligence on crypto. “A number of these larger holders do communicate with each other, they know [each other], they take stock of market activity.”

Analysts at Morgan Stanley echoed this concern in a note this month, saying that it was “noteworthy” that the more sophisticated investors were “willing to give up traditional investor rights for potentially faster liquidity”.

Nevertheless, some point out that the excitement and influx of fresh funds into the market has allowed its infrastructure to mature — albeit gradually — which could be a boon for those looking to trade bitcoin more safely in future.
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<h2>Trading places</h2>
Buying and selling bitcoin had traditionally been challenging for all but the most tech-savvy. As last year’s cryptocurrency frenzy heated up however, some consumer finance businesses rushed to capitalise on the zeitgeist and offer their customers access to digital coins through apps they were already familiar with using.

Many exchanges have strengthened their due diligence processes in response to customer concerns and invested in bigger customer services teams. Transaction fees have come down as technology has improved — but hacks are still commonplace.

Institutions have also been making inroads. These include prominent US futures exchanges, such as the CME Group and Cboe Global Markets, which now offer bitcoin futures. Meanwhile, Nasdaq’s chief executive, Adena Friedman, said this year that the group would consider offering cryptocurrency exchange services in future.

Alternative funds are also muscling in. Morgan Stanley data show there is now more than $3.5bn in estimated assets under management across 250 dedicated crypto-funds, although the pace of the creation of new funds has slowed recently.

A more formalised over-the-counter market has started to develop, with players such as Cumberland, an arm of Chicago-based DRW, and Goldman Sachs-backed Circle growing rapidly.

Much of the future of bitcoin trading will depend on the approach that regulators take, experts say. There are stirrings across the world, though to date, little coherence. Asian financial centres such as Tokyo are now regulating crypto exchanges, while China has banned them outright. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission last month announced a criminal probe into potential bitcoin price manipulation.

Banks in particular have been reticent to engage with cryptocurrencies and the companies that handle them, partly due to the difficulty of conducting anti-money laundering checks on transactions.

“Bank compliance officers really, really hate cryptos . . . be prepared to demonstrate the provenance of every penny from every crypto,” says Mr Gerard.

Mr Hileman predicts that one day there will be a “legitimate regulated retail investment market” in bitcoin, although not anytime soon. “We’re talking years,” he predicts.

Any more widespread adoption of bitcoin would need regulators, central banks and tax regulators to allow the transfer of wealth movement from the current financial system into the new one, says Gavin Brown, senior lecturer in financial economics at Manchester Metropolitan University and director of cryptocurrency hedge fund Blockchain Capital.

Nevertheless, there are those who still hold unwavering faith in bitcoin.

Sunnie, who has been investing in bitcoin since she started working for a crypto exchange back in 2014, did not cash out in December, burnt by a previous experience in 2016 when she sold thinking the price was high.

With 50 per cent of her assets currently in 10 bitcoin — bought initially at $3,000 a piece — she believes in its potential as the first project that uses burgeoning blockchain technology.

“If bitcoin can survive under such a high rollercoaster period, I have faith in it,” she adds. “When I reach six figures I’m probably going to cash out what I have and completely retire. The price will go to the moon again — maybe higher.”

In fairness that was and is an accurate statement.

Really, can I have a go on your crystal ball please.

Michelle Mone and her Equi Capital crypto currency scam

I’m still in. Don’t mind talking about the losses.

I don’t think it’s over at all. If it was it would be way way down now.

Who knows.

You have to be able to deal with it

It’s not down because the exchanges manipulate the price.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mystery-behind-tether-the-crypto-worlds-digital-dollar-1534089601

I hope it tanks into oblivion and we never hear from it again. Nothing personal, I just don’t understand what the hell all this is and I’m hoping I never need to learn.

somafunk

Michelle Mone and her Equi Capital crypto currency scam

Aye, she’s a right piece of work. If you see her name attached to something, run a mile.

Crypto-currency won’t die but it’s good the hype around it is dying away, it was a crazy bubble that was always going to burst so only a muppet would invest life savings etc. I’m sure it will rise again, possibly not just as fast (unless everyone forgets in 5 years or convinces themselves this time it will be different…). The ICOs and sheer number to different crypto-currencies that emerged didn’t help either. I’m sure there will still be a need for a block-chain based non-government controlled currency in the future though but lack of regulation is also it’s Achilles heel.

It’s an interesting concept for sure, and has proven itself to be a minimal player in the wider Currency trade sector.

Its constraints are limited to those who own the most and those that accept it as a viable payment receipt system.

As is I know of three friends who are all in for £30k plus and are looking to continue to invest, but my mates are traders so will wait for some more volidity before buying more.

Thier motivation, as with any new scheme, is to make money. They’re experienced traders who understand Risk, one hopes to use it as a University funding model for his daughter… the other two will probably buy a car or two with it if they all manage to capitalise at the right time.

An experienced trader who understands risk with his daughter’s university fund in cryptocurrency. That’s certainly different.

A colleague waxed lyrical about it. Told me I was wrong about every opposing arguement I gave.

He lost $40k of his own cash plus all his “earnings” on paper he was mortgage free if the daft gype hadn’t got greedy. We all told him to cash out before bubble burst – he said it was only a blip and it was going to rise to the sky and he wanted to be a millionaire .

Right from the start  we had pointed out tthat history generally says quick gains are quickly lost and sure as shit history repeated it’s self

Last new year was a bit shit as I was stuck in Angola with a lad who was damn near suicidal at his loss.

Really, can I have a go on your crystal ball please.

You don’t need a crystal ball to see through all the BS.

Read the FT article above; with such a skewed holding it’s always going to be speculative instrument rather than a currency of any merit. The data has always been there for anyone to look at, just no one did as the fools were too busy jumping on the bandwagon to ask where was it heading before hand….

Blockchain will end up being used in various places, but the BC currencies will all disappear into obscurity over the next few years.

I suspect it will go the way of all those .com internet businesses.

I believe in Bitcoin! I am doing it. I’ll keep you posted!

(Last time I decided not to take a risk is when Steve Jobs rejoined Apple. I had 5 grand saved, and decided to keep it for a house deposit instead of stocking up on Apple.)

I saw an interview with Bill Gates (not that I respect him…) and he reckon crypto ccys had an exciting application in aid payments – aid could be paid directly to those organisation that need it rather than being filtered through ‘corrupt’ governments.

Not lost anything yet.

But I did cash out my original stake between Dec-Jan to make sure I’d always be in the black!

Would have been 4.5x up if I’d cashed out my entire stake though 😀

Btw, I don’t hold just BitCoin so I’ve not done too badly due to diversification. Still, waiting for someone to do something exciting with it instead of it just being a vehicle for speculation.

Another good article in the FT yesterday…

A once-in-a-lifetime chance has emerged to invest in SchadenfreudeCoin — a decentralised digital token pegged to the smugness of No-Coiners who were never sucked into the ailing cryptocurrency fad.

The highly scalable, next generation, disruptive new coin comes with the backing of social media celebrities and provides the perfect hedge against the declining value of bitcoin. Hand over your bank details now.

It’s a joke, but only just. Those of us accustomed to the daily lorry-load of cryptobabble emails can attest that it is scarily close to the real world of PR foisting untested and unregulated financial products on to naive investors. And given the levels of crowing from the crypto holdouts, a SchadenfreudeCoin could even be quite lucrative.

The stream of asinine crypto promotions is waning, however. It will probably soon dry up altogether, given the asset class’s dreadful recent run. From a peak of about $20,000 per coin in December, bitcoin — the biggest of thousands of digital coins around the world — has tanked to around $6,000.

True, anyone who bought before November last year is at least still flat on their investment. Fans still recommend holding (“HODLing” in the market’s parlance), a comparatively easy task given how hard it can be to liquidate positions. Still, the glum tone among the true believers who once castigated holdouts as “Keynesian bag carriers” is clear.
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“Sadly, I have to report low conviction today,” one crypto trader laments in an emailed note. “There’s also the issue of tepid fiat-crypto exchange volumes which speaks to low retail demand and a lack of fresh retail capital entering the ecosystem.”

That is a telling comment. The market, even according to its supporters, relies on drawing in new blood. It cannot thrive and has no fundamental driver for further gains without it. “Bust is the word,” said the chief executive of IG Group, one of many retail brokers that happily rode the wave of huge buying volumes towards the end of last year but that now thinks the frenzy has passed.

The last thing crypto buyers sitting on losses need to hear right now is “I told you so”. Only the hardest of hearts can fail to feel sympathy for investors who have lost their savings for college or whose first foray into financial markets has left them ruined. Nonetheless, it’s hard to sympathise with the buyers who disregarded the pleas of (most) regulators, central banks and the bulk of sane financial advisers to steer clear. Particularly tiny violins will squeak for the professional bankers who jumped in.

In April, I was invited to moderate a discussion about the prospects for cryptocurrencies. The panellists broadly, though not universally, agreed that they were limited, but that something may be possible to salvage from the underlying technology.

One asked for a show of hands among the audience, which comprised roughly 120 bankers — sales and trading types — and other financial intermediaries, to determine how many had bought into the craze. At least two-thirds raised their hands, many had sold close to the top, and almost all were still in the black.

Did they believe the hype? That crypto was about to wash away the antiquated fiat money system from which they drew their livelihoods? Unlikely. They just did what they do best and found a greater fool with less information and fewer market smarts, and piggybacked on their flows.

Crypto is limping on, but has proved itself to be more than small enough to fail. The price crash has had zero ramifications for financial markets so far.

Of course, there is one shining city upon a hill that is keeping the faith: Venezuela. President Nicolás Maduro this week launched a new national currency pegged to an oil-based crypto coin. As one observer noted: he may as well have pegged it to unicorns.

I suspect it will go the way of all those .com internet businesses.

I wouldnt be suprised either.

Certainly if the Regulators put some effort in and get some control mechanisms in place.

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/tiny/u-k-identified-key-risks-related-to-cryptoassets-and-commits-to-mitigate-them/

Better cash out and buy those Lambos soon folks.

Currently at 57% ROI in a year. If I’d cashed out on new years eve at 900% ROI, I’d be living in a new house right now. But I didn’t.

XRP recently doubled in price following speculation they were about to make a real world application announcement. They didn’t, but it shows what might happen.

Also, electroneum.

Looking good…

Just another $5000 to go and sanity will be restored.

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2bQtC5U]Bitcoin[/url] by Ben Freeman, on Flickr

Does anyone on here know the actual mechanism for renumeration for securing blocks?

I know 12.5 bitcoin per block solved/secured/mined, but I heard the amount paid each month is a fixed USD amount and the size/number/complexity of the blocks to be solved are set dependent on the computing capacity available at the time.

Anyone closer to this than me?  I’m quite far away, and my google scalpel isn’t sharp enough.

Does anyone on here know the actual mechanism for renumeration for securing blocks?

Trade bitcoins for shitcoins/tether.  Get left holding the bags.  Sell your mining rig on eBay to try and pay your electricity bill.

electronium

Anyone still think crypto is the future?

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-11-23/crypto-losses-near-700-billion-in-worst-week-since-bubble-burst

It will remain in the future yes, will it replace normal currency, no but then only crazy people or those trying to flog bitcoin ever thought it would. Block chain is certainly here to stay and quite a few systems are starting to use it, we’re even using it as the basis of payments systems for traditional banks.

cheers torso, no interest in it for myself, needed to understand for work. I had another go on google and found what I needed to.

Ned, just ask anyone who is punting blockchain how you store personal data in one given GDPR, and how do you keep that personal data secure given it is (supposedly) immutable.

When Wal-Mart and TradeLens solutions are held up as examples,  ask if these are actual distributed ledgers,  or is all the data centralised in IBMs datacenters just like a conventional database would be.

etc. etc.

All the promises of Blockchain are the promises of Bitcoin. So don’t feel too bad about missing out.

Have to say I’m very much enjoying watching Bitcoin et al crash and burn.

and now even the Chinese can’t break even mining the stuff!

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-price-crash-cryptocurrency-mining-bankrupt-china-bitmain-giga-watt-a8646821.html

Be interesting so see what the profit margins are like for the guys using immersion cooling and ambient air cooling.

Non existent. Bitcoin mining has become centralised for this reason.

The cryptopocalypse cometh.

https://twitter.com/ncweaver/status/1064860941806792704