What effect will it have? Will there be big sales on bikes and frames and kit as people’s buying slows down because of loss of jobs and future unknowns?

Or… will prices stay the same due to a possibility of stock running out. I read a lot of stuff is made in Taiwan etc where factories are closed down with the virus, so a lot of the stock for this season might even sell out…..? Who knows. Will it delay the release of next years bike, I’m guessing so.

Forgive me if this has been talked about already or needs to be moved!

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.
Niels Bohr.

Yes to all of that…

People will have to be less fussy for a while, buy what’s in stock rather than waiting for what they want to come into stock in many cases.

The effect will take a while to trickle through. Taiwan is actually ahead of normal capacity as they shut down roughly the same time as they’re normally off for CNY and then they’re not having the other public holidays they would normally have. They really haven’t shut down.

However there will be a glut of cheaper parts. My far eastern contacts are saying they’re pretty idle at the moment as they have little to do so they’re probably churning out ODM parts, stuff that gets rebadged. For example I have a bar supplier that we’re working with that makes for some of the top end guys, that gave me a massive lead time in Feb, and now can supply me whatever I want in very short order…. On the flip side of that, with little work coming to the factories on the OE side my suppliers are also warning of supply constraints on the 2021 models as they expect to be rammed with orders later in the year as the global market wakes from its enforced slumber.

So in essence expect higher prices on premium brands, lower prices on more generic stuff, all caveated by the fact that our prices in the UK are totally dependent on the $ price.

I’m just organising my first post CV19 import from Taiwan… We’ll see how that goes!

A lot may depend on the $ value, and that all depends on what the Orange idiot tweets.

depends on what the Orange idiot tweets

That exact phrase is used in our house almost daily!

The info on supply is interesting, but I expect demand is going to be severely dampened – potentially leading to much more unsold 2020 stock than usual?

Another question – if I have my eyes on a medium to high end Italian handmade frame (I actually do , a Colnago which are made in Italy), what are the chances of those going on a massive sale 😁😆🤔.

According to the Guardian today, sales of bikes have risen, though presumably most of those are going to be low-end things bought by folk who don’t normally ride to facilitate exercise. Fingers crossed some of them get into cycling and upgrade in the future.

I expect demand is going to be severely dampened

Those that wanted a new bike this year may still want a bike next year? MrsP had a bunch of demo events lined up that all got cancelled. She hasn’t bought a new bike for ages and doesn’t want to take a punt on something without riding it, so new bike is on hold for a while.

I think I posted it in the coronavirus thread a month or so ago. But, I was out for a ride with someone who deals with the biggest uk distributor and he said that 2020 production was already way behind and there was talk of missing out “2021” and going straight to 2022 ranges

The info on supply is interesting, but I expect demand is going to be severely dampened – potentially leading to much more unsold 2020 stock than usual?

This. It entirely depends on supply & demand IMO. If the stock is there, but people aren’t buying (for whatever reason), OR there’s too much stock/choice, suppliers are going to have to lower prices to make sales and get cash flowing. It’s going to be exactly the same for a lot of industries I think, where companies are sitting on a lot of stock they currently can’t shift.

Interesting insight in Ben’s post.

I am in the market for a new MTB and had a few test rides and demo’s lined up for spring but these obviously got canned. For now I plan to hold off and see what happens with my job before doing anything.

I would imagine a lot of people are in the same boat.

Supply will be restricted, demand will be dampened. Prices will probably stay the same.

According to the Guardian today, sales of bikes have risen

also according to the guys in the shop i left in january, they’ve sold all the new stock they had at the start of lockdown and bikes that were already on the shop floor, long may that trend continue as they need this to survive. workshop fully booked too i hear

Supply will be restricted

I guess we just don’t know what the supply is for everyone.

The idea of missing MY2012 would make sense, obviously the 2021 bikes are already designed and in production – so that might just mean changing the dates on the relevant Powerpoints, spreadsheets etc?

According to the Guardian today, sales of bikes have risen

Were they quoting the Brompton chap who claimed they were up 15%?

I wouldn’t hang about if you know you want something this year.

Its worth noting that Taiwan may be somewhat an exception. If your bike is made in cambodia, vietnam or one of those kind of places who knows how they’ll fair. Taiwan seems to have done an exceptional job and any shortages/significant delays will be minimal if its an exclusively (or near enough) Taiwan made product it seems.

I work in purchasing for one of the bigger companies. I’m working from home, on my laptop which is slower than my office PC, but it’s currently taking me about three times longer to put orders through to our suppliers. (We work with just about every distributor and supplier). I’m guesstimating that we are seeing about four times more orders coming in than normal.

The Orbea and Hope factories are closed – everyone else is open and working hard. Our retail shop has been busier than anyone remembers.

There is no trend – cheap bikes, expensive bikes, parts, accessories. The only we aren’t selling are home trainers, because we can’t get any.

I doubt that there will be big sales at the end of the season.

I wonder if it might burst the eMTB bubble. Let’s face it, they are basically very expensive toys and it’s hard to imagine that the market for very expensive toys will be as buoyant after all this. Even those who have the cash might be more minded to keep a bit more in reserve for a rainy day. Who knows though?

I think that could be true. I was already concerned with what the eBike pricing would do to the wider bike market, now we’re all going to need to pay several thousand more in tax over the next few years maybe it will reign in some spending. I think credit will take a hit too, rates will go up, popularity of incurring debt will go down. That would slow the eBike boom alot.

I wonder if it might burst the eMTB bubble. Let’s face it, they are basically very expensive toys and it’s hard to imagine that the market for very expensive toys will be as buoyant after all this. Even those who have the cash might be more minded to keep a bit more in reserve for a rainy day. Who knows though?

Care to elaborate on why they are just ”expensive toys“? Are they any more of an expensive toy than what a non cyclist might think any midrange bike is?

I demoed one from Peddlers in Redcar just before the virus and loved it! I’m more keen for one than ever now. Get as much riding in before the second wave of the virus hits.

Another question – if I have my eyes on a medium to high end Italian handmade frame (I actually do , a Colnago which are made in Italy), what are the chances of those going on a massive sale 😁😆🤔.

Poor taste, have a word with yourself.

Care to elaborate on my they are just ”expensive toys“? Are they any more of an expensive toy than what a non cyclist might think any midrange bike is?

Agreed, the average poster on here has thousands of pounds worth of bikes.

I’m out and about working every day. It is noticeable the amount of people out on bikes, and the amount of ‘new’ looking bikes being used.
Mostly Carrera, and a few Giants.
No idea if these are bikes that have been bought recently, or ones that have sat in sheds for months/years, but they look very shiny, so I’d guess at the former.
I’d say Halfords is doing well with new sales.

Care to elaborate on why they are just ”expensive toys“?

If the idea is to get as much exercise as you can in a limited time, then making it easier for that limited time isn’t the best use of it?

Anyway, that’s a separate discussion, and haven’t we had enough of it by now?

There has been some, half-joking chat about an e-bike allowing access to trails that would usually be driven to.

And after lockdown we’ll all be fatter and less fit, so maybe e-bikes will be more popular?

If the idea is to get as much exercise as you can in a limited time, then making it easier for that limited time isn’t the best use of it?

Replace the word exercise with fun and re evaluate.

Ebikes are going nowhere. I can see peoples buying habits changing after this and just having one big MTB purchase every 3-5 yrs and ebikes fit that category perfectly

On credit, its already started. I was looking at CX bikes and clicked through to the Klarna option and it said they were only accepting applications with a salary of £60k

Care to elaborate on why they are just ”expensive toys“? Are they any more of an expensive toy than what a non cyclist might think any midrange bike is?

Yes, they are more expensive to the tune of the motor/battery plus the R&D costs. So currently about £2K compared with a similar spec analogue bike. You are right that all mid-high end MTBs are expensive toys though and maybe it would just be better to say that the market for expensive MTBs is likely to be depressed for a while. But, as Ben say, eMTBs are a way of trying to get consumers used to paying a fair bit more for their toys and that might be a harder sell once all this is over. The eMTB market is also slightly different in that companies have recently spent a lot on developing models in the expectation that the market will be buoyant for a while at least.

This isn’t meant as any comment on the merits (or otherwise of eMTBs) but I wouldn’t want to be in the position of having just sunk a load of R&D costs into developing a new eMTB (e.g. Santa Cruz) just as the market for expensive MTBs in general is looking like it’s going to take a hit.

Who knows though, maybe all this will drive up interest in cycling.

On credit, its already started. I was looking at CX bikes and clicked through to the Klarna option and it said they were only accepting applications with a salary of £60k

That’s bonkers – the “high earner,high spenders” are going to take the biggest hit from furloughing and economic downturn. Put away the tiny violins, they’ll still be eating; but someone making 60k who cant stump up the cash for a bicycle is going to be up to the eyeballs in mortgages, car payments and so on.

Someone on a lower wage with minimal savings who nevertheless has the ability to spend £50-100 a month on their main or only hobby should be exactly who they want as customers surely?

I don’t know enough about economics to be able to predict what the effects of pumping £300bn into the economy will be. That’s just printing (lots of) money, right? There are a few signs that it has had a dramatic effect on the availability of credit (mortgage lenders requiring up to a 40% deposit for new loans etc). Maybe that’s just a short-term thing, but if we move to a situation where people can only buy bikes if they have the money in the bank I can see that changing the market a fair bit.

As I say, I’m not an economist, but if you print lots of money I would have thought that one thing you would have to do is push up interest rates (to control spending) otherwise don’t you just end up with hyper-inflation?

As a slightly different perspective, I think there might well be a surge in buying things in general, including bikes once all this is over. I suspect that we* will be encouraged to spend like crazy once all the restrictions are finally lifted as the worlds governments try to kickstart the economy and suggest that the best way to support all the struggling businesses is to buy stuff from them. I for one intend to make a new bike purchase that I’ve been talking myself in and out of of years now. I see it as – this virus is showing very clearly that we don’t know what’s around the corner so may as well enjoy the things that we enjoy while we are able to, and I very much doubt that I’m the only person who thinks that way.

That’s bonkers – the “high earner,high spenders” are going to take the biggest hit from furloughing and economic downturn.

Slightly off topic but a lot of employers are going to get a bit of a nasty shock if / when they read the back up documents regarding the furloughing of employees and the 80% government payment. It is solely for businesses where the employees are unable to work because of the shutdown. Employees working from home are not eligible. Most high earners will probably be working from home on full wage or negotiating temporarily delayed wage payments.

I’m holding off buying some new forks for the bouncy bike as I don’t want 3-6, maybe more, months of the warranty being lost sitting on my garage.

For the Ebike chat, I’m doing my one hour ride from my house up to the local sport which I usually dont ride cos the runs are short and the hill is steep, its perfect ebike territory. An ebike would even open up cycling to my nearest good spot which is 18miles and 1500ft one way.

For the buying of goods, I am wfh and still getting a full wage, I am not spending as much as cant eat out, go for drinks or even put fuel in the car. I have made lots of purchases from different bike stores both online and LBS this week: Clothing, tools and bike parts have all been on the list of things ordered and delivered, currently shopping for carbon bars

Slightly off topic but a lot of employers are going to get a bit of a nasty shock if / when they read the back up documents regarding the furloughing of employees and the 80% government payment. It is solely for businesses where the employees are unable to work because of the shutdown. Employees working from home are not eligible. Most high earners will probably be working from home on full wage or negotiating temporarily delayed wage payments.

wrong thread I know – but my situation is WFH possible [for most things, and its a bit of a faff], but pretty soon there will be no work to do as there are no new orders. Is this OK?

My understanding is that you should be ok. The question largely seems to be, would the employee usually be sacked / made redundant in that situation. Here’s thelink to the guidance which should be of some help.
Ultimately the decision to implement the scheme is up to the employer though as they have to make the claims.

At the end of this probably quite a few workers will still have jobs, and a lot more no jobs, as office based management and staff are culled, because basically they have managed through out Covid without them, offices will down size as more VFH is implemented, company cars will be seen as an overhead not really required with the advent of video conferencing etc.

There will be more leisure time, warmer weather, less pollution and comuting due to the above, so an excellent chance for Bike suppliers, and shops to launch a concerted advertising campaign to get bums on bikes, electric assist or people power assist.

There will be more leisure time, warmer weather, less pollution and comuting due to the above, so an excellent chance for Bike suppliers, and shops to launch a concerted advertising campaign to get bums on bikes, electric assist or people power assist.

Or, we’ll go back to work, shops, restaurants and offices will re-open and re-employ those laid off. The good weather will end, and all of those bikes will gather dust and people will slob away as they always have done. Except they’ll have got used to drinking every night. And afternoon. And won’t know where their underpants are because they haven’t worn any for weeks.