Is it a risk?

Let’s say this is a bike you plan on keeping some time. It might go through several sets of wheels over the years. Is the industry pretty much set on a 12mm standard?

I know very little about thru-axles (don’t even have them on MTB), so when it comes to the road and no-one even seems certain about their future, it’s a bit of a concern for me. Are my concerns justified?

Although not specifically a road bike my Specialized Sequoia has 12mm through axles front and rear. The wheelset that came with it is, hmm, very robust but very heavy so I bought a set of DT Swiss R24 Spline Disc wheels as they are one of the few that cater for 12mm TA’s front and rear. Transformed my Sequoia and I use them for less arduous rides.

If I recall at the time there aren’t many factory wheelsets that are 12mm TA front and rear; in my case I did need 142mm at the rear – your frame might be 135mm?

One of the ones I’m looking at is 142mm on the rear. I’ve no idea what that means really. Are there any kind of adapters to accommodate different standards?

I dare say there is no chance of using a standard quick release wheel under any circumstances?

You’d be stuck with through axles. In general they will be available should you manage to break one. You should be able to get hubs as well. I doubt you wouldn’t be able to get things but it would a question of convenience and cost. Hope make hubs and adaptors to fit most odd combinations – ebay, classifieds and some specialists will help with other parts. But then you’d be looking at a hand built set of wheels.

Road bike discs are here to stay. They may or may not become that popular with those hard core racers or others who seem to have an issue with them for some reason, but they make sense for the average Joe, commuters and gravel bikes, and any bike with disc brakes will have thru axels – or should have, so pretty future proofed I think.

I still don’t see what’s wrong with QRs for road/cx bikes.

Are they going to magically stop working after decades of being just fine?

No, but thru-axles are more secure, just as there are on MTBs, and if you’re starting from scratch, why not get it right from the start? It’s not like people will be repurposing all their old MTB wherlsets and now can’t.

I thought 12×100 and 12×142 had been settled on as standard? Certainly seems that way. I’ve ordered a Chinese disc frame and wheels (from different sellers) that came thusly.

Never had or heard of anyone haveing problems with a we and discs on the rear, and never had problems with a we and discs front but have heard stories of problems.

I don’t usually wee on my discs.

Is it a risk and are your concerns justified – yes.

The whole industry doesn’t seem to be able to go more than 6 months without changing axle standards at the moment. Royal PITA.

Personally, i’m holding off anything other than cheap winter bikes until it stabilises (and I find more storage space!), which is a shame, as there’s a bike or two I do really fancy.

Good article here from Cycling Weekly.

3 rear wheel standards (with a fourth on the horizon) and three front.
In what, three years?

The industry shows no sign of backing off from increasingly diverse standards any time soon.

I went for old school qr, 90/135 and post mount, purely because I think that’s what’ll be widely available for the longest time.

I like thru axles in principle, but not a chance I’d commit to anything at the mo.

I’ve gone flat mount and thru-axle, but only cheap Chinese. Certainly seems that’s what’s becoming standard, and imo they’re the best solutions. As I’m unlikely to buy dozens of spare parts it’s a bit of a moot point. YMMV.

Flat mount brakes and 12mm bolt through seems to be the way it’s going . I got a Trek Domane disc which came with a 15 mm bolt through front but Trek do fork adapters that allow you to run 12mm or qr on it .

…but Trek do fork adapters that allow you to run 12mm or qr on it

So worst case scenario, you could run quick release on them?

I thought 12×100 and 12×142 had been settled on as standard?

I think I’m right in saying (stand to be corrected) that Specialized do a 135mm TA on some of their bikes.

I came scarily close to buying on eBay a nearly-new set of wheels from one; only realised at the very last moment that they were 135mm at the rear! These ones, if I recall:

https://www.specialized.com/us/en/equipment/components/wheels/axis-40-disc-scs-ta/118017

Specialized are never, ever the guide for what’s standard. They’ve always done daft proprietary things. That’s been a huge bone of contention, as for a while they had stock of S-Works frames, but not the requisite wheels. So you couldn’t build the bike up.