It’s a fascinating negotiation tbh. Shame there’s no crystal ball to see the options play out over a decade or more.
A no deal at this stage is probably best for the long term but can we commit to the short term pain.
Who’s calling the outcome?

No deal will be hugely damaging long term for two main reasons

1 London will lose its financial services leading to a huge balance of payments problem

2 tariffs will increase food poverty and push inflation up
Lots of other bad effects as well

Nothing. Prevailing narrative ‘wins’. Takes all. In a race to the bottom it just has to play out until that ‘bottom‘ is reached. I’m no longer an optimist.

That is probably why I would seriously consider independence for Scotland in another vote, I feel that Westminster is absolutely toxic and the present administration are the most incompetent bunch of yes men I have ever seen and run by an absolute charlatan, and if we are to endure a decade of pain I would rather a bit more pain for at least a bit of light at the end of the tunnel hence the independence vote, also it has to be said that the lying machine within Westminster needn’t bother pointing out do not vote to leave for this that and the other because quite frankly I only watch the clown to see how big his lies are (I am at a loss as to how anyone believes one word that comes out his mouth)

Why is no deal best long term?

And as for short term pain – who’s going to bear the brunt of that? Pain can be dealt with if governments step up to soften the blow. But this lot won’t – they are Tories, and the main principle of Tories is that they don’t do that.

It’s a fascinating negotiation tbh

Except it isn’t, is it? It’s achingly predictable. It’s an FA Cup tie with a third division side playing the premiership leaders.Until yesterday

A no deal at this stage is probably best for the long term

No deal has always been the worst possible scenario, which is why even the most hardline Brexiteer went to great lengths to promise that it could never happen.

Of course this flips on its head if you’re a hedge fund speculator who’s bet billions against the pound. In which case you’ll clean up and make an absolute killing as our currency goes in to freefall.

Money you can then spend on acquiring British companies who’s share prices have collapsed, which you can then asset strip.

Have a guess who provided all the money for both the Leave campaign, Borises leadership campaign and the Tory’s election campaign?

Go on… take a wild guess?

A no deal at this stage is probably best for the long term but can we commit to the short term pain.

Short term pain for no long term gain. Not exactly the “win-win” Johnson promised when he dismissed the short, medium and long term damaged the Cameron government warned we would have to accept if we swapped EU membership for a new relationship without a replacement trade deal. The government spelt it out… Johnson called it “Project Fear” and said that there was no chance whatsoever of us leaving without a trade deal. Now he is overseeing the very damaging exit situation that he promised the voters would not happen. Bait and switch.

Molgrips, no deal now doesn’t really mean no deal forever but let’s agree that no deal will be a shitty short term mess💩, captain starmer can finally emerge from the Brexit shadows and use that chaos to win the next election for a strong labour government that will be supporting those most in need.

We will also be able to rejoin the EU whenever we are ready, fully committing to the euro and perhaps creating a better relationship through our experience.

The UK needs some humble pie, let’s gobble it up while we have a chance for real change, nom nom nom.
We really don’t want Basil Fawlty to secure any sort of deal right now.

Sometimes you have to burn the house down 🔥

Super fascinating.

I for one love working for a successful manufacturing company that is dependent on exporting worldwide and let me assure you I love trying to sort out exciting things like REACH, supply chains and suchlike all the while having absolutely no idea as to what the plan is.

I am of course reassured that conservative government will absolutely be committed to getting a great deal (in fact the ‘easiest deal in history’).

The tories have a great track record in this area. Oh wait – my mistake.

I just hope all those keen on some ‘short term pain’ actually experience the short term pain. Its all very well being keen on job losses it it isn’t your job…

Sometimes you have to burn the house down 🔥

Oh great! Disaster socialism! 🙄

I’d rather we opted for a course of action that didn’t involve a monumentally damaging financial shitstorm

The Ayn Rand idea of ‘creative destruction’ is a myth. In reality it’s just destruction

We will also be able to rejoin the EU whenever we are ready

We’re not joining the EU in any of our lifetimes (not as the UK anyway), we have burnt through all the goodwill over the last 4+ years. Bridges well and truly burnt (at the Westminster level anyway).

Perfect isn’t available peepole, do you really want Basil Fawlty securing a deal? Is your secure little bubble worth that long term pain for future generations.. we need a no deal next year to kick start a new UK movement.

We can rejoin the EU when we are ready👍

Nothing you are saying is grounded in reality. No deal will destroy many UK sited businesses, and force others to relocate. Those jobs won’t be coming back, and real people will be hit hard. We are not rejoining the EU, and the damage of No Deal will be felt by real people for no long term gain to them. We will not be rejoining the EU in their lifetimes.

We’re not joining the EU

Well, not England. Some of the other bits “might” have a shot.

The UK can rejoin the EU when it’s ready, it isn’t a lottery, if you meet the criteria you join the ‘all welcome’ club.
You don’t want Boris getting a deal this will be bad news for the UK in the long term.

UK would be vetoed from rejoining

We will not be rejoining the EU in their lifetimes.

We will. From a personal point of view I will not lie down and die in front of these lying b*stards.

Oh great! Disaster socialism!

I’d rather we opted for a course of action that didn’t involve a monumentally damaging financial shitstorm

I understand this, but in reality the collapse of everything in this country started a long time ago, its just people either try ignore the worsening situation around them by trying to live ‘as normal’ lives as they can, and hope they can hold onto what little they have left, or you have enough money and access to privilege as whatever happens will not affect you.

In a race to the bottom it just has to play out until that ‘bottom‘ is reached.

The bottom is when you choose to take action to stop the rot. Don’t expect some naturally occurring phenomena to throw up a sign in bright lights and state ‘THIS IS THE BOTTOM, LIBERALS AND SUCH TAKE ACTION NOW’, because that isn’t going to happen.

Sometimes you have to burn the house down

The house is already on fire, as above its up to us to stop f**king around and put it out.

The UK can rejoin the EU when it’s ready, it isn’t a lottery, if you meet the criteria you join the ‘all welcome’ club

is bollocks.

Fact check for you – suggest you read this from The Institute for Government…
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/article-49-rejoining-eu

All the UK has is the right to apply to re-join the EU; any such application can be vetoed by any EU member state – so Poland or Hungary, for example, could exercise that veto and the application would be rejected.
The EU can impose any pre-conditions it sees fit before considering an application to
re-join
In addition, the various concessions which the UK has negotiated with the EU would not be re-instated; there would be no preferential treatment so the contribution rebate, for example, would be a thing of the past.

No apologies for pissing on your chips; let me remind you of the 4 Fs – First Find the F______ Facts.

We don’t want that preferential rebate deal FFS, that’s no good for the EU. We will accept the EU criteria because the UK won’t be crying about the nasty EU anymore, demanding rebates and perks, we will commit to the euro and build a new stronger relationship with our neighbours. Nobody will veto our rejoining and the EU will welcome the grown up version of the UK with open arms (as has been stated many times)

Take your pissy chips and shove em up your arse👍😂

That’s an ignorant response which probably should be flagged to the mods because of the last sentence.

In addition to your ignorant attitude you clearly don’t want to educate yourself.

So you want to swear at me, piss on my chips and slip in some ad homs but then cry like a child when I bend you over and slap your bum cheeks in a jovial manner. Jog on captain ironic🙋

Sometimes you have to burn the house down 🔥

You really don’t.

Can I suggest you step away from the keyboard for a while?

Yawn.

Matt, the house is getting destroyed either way, Boris getting a deal now is very bad news for the UK.

Boris getting a deal now is very bad news for the UK.

Fixed that for you

Brexit just got real

William Shatner just said he can no longer import to the UK from 1st of Jan

Even better a 4 way argument I’ve been having with a brexiter for the last 4 years (I’m that sad) just got quote tweeted by Shatner himself (who took the nickname of the brexiter as an insult)

False facts? What is false? Oh btw, it’s the US; I’m a Canadian 🇨🇦 citizen living in the US🇺🇸 Wouldn’t want someone to accuse you of providing false facts while you are chiding me about them, would we?🤷🏼‍♂️ https://t.co/ODouB2jCyA

— William Shatner (@WilliamShatner) October 17, 2020

I’m having a major trekie moment right now

Most of exsee’s posts were around 3-4pm in the afternoon which really begs a question.

Is mid afternoon too early to be properly on the piss/charlie?

https://www.icaew.com/insights/tax-news/2020/july-2020/changes-to-vat-treatment-of-imported-goods

worth reading and understanding what this means. If you want to buy anything from abroad, that company has to register for UK VAT. How many companies are going to do that!

Apologies if this has already been posted, but here is an interesting view from the US from CNN….

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/special-relationship-election-analysis-gbr-intl/index.html

The short version: so much rides on who will be the US president for the next 4 years that the govt will stall and wait until the results of the election are clear.

The short version: so much rides on who will be the US president for the next 4 years that the govt will stall and wait until the results of the election are clear.

Wasn’t the Brexit ‘no deal/hard exit’ plan always Bannon/Trump?

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/07/31/you-aint-seen-nothing-yet-steve-bannons-brexit-catastrophe-is-all-part-of-his-wider-plan/

Apparently Gove is still hoping ‘EU leaders appreciate importance of reaching a deal’…

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-less-than-50-chance-of-eu-trade-deal-says-michael-gove-12107413

Public schools seem to have a lot to answer for, preparing idiots for an empire that no longer exists.

They do indeed. As Malcolm Tucker referred to them on the Thick Of It – six-toed born-to-rule pony-****ers!

Its all still just a bloody game to them as there are never any consequences to any of their actions. They just stroll off and leave everyone else to clean up their mess, Bullingdon style

Andrew Ransley was good, iff terrifying in the Observer today. Apparently even Gove is now belatedly realising the true damage of No Deal

Boris Johnson is dancing with danger by threatening a crash-out Brexit

But this is a truly scary quote:

The most fanatically Brexity people around the prime minister will be entirely relaxed – delighted even – if that is the outcome. A nightmare for many, it is a dream for them. They smack their lips at the thought of the hardest of hard Brexits. As one senior Tory puts it: “Boris will have Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain in his ear saying, ‘Let’s stick it to the EU and celebrate by sinking a bunch of French fishing boats on New Year’s Day’.” Similar sentiments – let’s just blow the whole thing up – can be found among Brextremist Tory MPs in the Commons.

Public schools seem to have a lot to answer for, preparing idiots for an empire that no longer exists.

Made me chuckle

Public schools seem to have a lot to answer for, preparing idiots for an empire that no longer exists.

If only it were true. But, come off it, the grand public schools know, and teach their gilded pupils, full well what the true status of the UK is.

The quote should read:

Public schools seem to have a lot to answer for, preparing cynical idiots and cynical (relatively) intelligent people to keep power secure in their hands by appealing to thickos by championing an empire that no longer exists.

That is closer to the mark. When you realise that the Eton-Harrow- Winchester set study the ‘other’ 99.99% of the population it is a kind of detached ‘case study’. A case study to prepare them in techniques to manipulate said 99.99%. That is when you realise what really goes on with this ‘born to rule’ crap. It is a pragmatic, cynical, cool appraisal of what base motives amongst the population can be appealed to. Nothing more, nothing less.

This article by William Keegan is equally relevant in the Coronanomics thread.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/18/livelihoods-crushed-vice-disease-brexit-leave-campaigners-pandemic

mrmo
Free Member

https://www.icaew.com/insights/tax-news/2020/july-2020/changes-to-vat-treatment-of-imported-goods

worth reading and understanding what this means. If you want to buy anything from abroad, that company has to register for UK VAT. How many companies are going to do that!

Wait, seriously? There’s not some key thing we’re missing because it’s said in tax-inspector-ese not english? Because none of this makes any sense. Does the UK even have the right to insist that companies selling to here from abroad have to pay VAT?

The current system is crap- or rather, the usurious fees are. (i’m just going through a thing with fedex where tehy delivered an item, then billed me a month later for import dutues, which they’ve got the maths wrong on but are saying I can’t appeal unless I show them the packaging, which I’ve thrown out.) but if this is really what it looks like, it’s just a way to shut the whole thing down. And it’s not like a lot of overseas-sold stuff can easily be located in the UK so we can’t just switch to a UK captive-market system.

I

You don’t want Boris getting a deal this will be bad news for the UK in the long term.

Let’s be clear, Deal or No Deal are BOTH damaging for the UK economy as they both create cost/bureaucracy that doesn’t exist at the moment.

Wait, seriously?

I’m still not sure… but it’s the advice that Shatner got about his merch sales. If it really does mean that… you can see why… half of our imports are from EU/EEA countries… and I’m pretty sure that if you looked at straight to consumer sales, rather than goods imported to resell, it will be the vast majority. Now… VAT is already collected on all these goods… so, if designing a new import system, then focussing on EU/EEA imports makes sense… ask businesses in those countries to continue to collect VAT, and pass it on… and you probably need to treat non-EU/EEA countries the same if you want to avoid a WTO ruling.

Vat is collected at the point of sale to a consumer. It doesn’t feature on business to business transactions other than being recorded as vat free. It likely will mean a lot of businesses in the EU won’t bother with the UK consumer until there’s a system set up. So I wouldn’t expect to be buying anything direct for a few years.

Yeah, we knew that already… the question is whether this also replies to businesses outside the EU/EEA selling direct to UK consumers… as when buying direct from USA based brands and shops… that’s that claim we’re confused about…