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  • Brexit 2020+
  • theotherjonv
    Full Member

    Hmmm, Oxford Politics Prof on PM said that the results in the swingy-leave seats indicates that labour are getting the message to them about right, and don’t scare ’em still seems to be the right tactic as it stands.

    She also said that it’s not clear cut; that while there is a projected lead based on calcs (noting not all areas are voting so extrapolating can be difficult) that calc doesn’t have SKS much different to Ed Milliband’s labour prior to 2015 and we know how that turned out.

    She also said that in the end it’s the party that voters trust with the economy that wins. Given the debacle of the Truss days I’d hope that is obvious but in 12-18 months time if energy comes down, CoL pressures ease…… I’m starting to get scared again.

    Anyway, I said I was fed up of circular arguments. Opinions are like aresholes, everyone has one and I don’t want you waving yours in my face over and over, and I assume v/v.

    (noting I have a very nice, sat-down-wiped one)

    nickc
    Full Member

    Lib Demand green gains in the councils show this

    Isn’t this just the tactical voting that everyone wants? Some of those Lib Dem gains and holds like Chichester, Chlemsford, and Cotswolds didn’t have Labour candidates standing in them

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Isn’t this just the tactical voting that everyone wants?

    Yup, looks like voters are getting wise(r).

    labour doing well in the “red wall” seats but much worse in those seats where lib dems and greens

    So… where Labour can take seats of the Tories, their vote in local elections are up, and where LibDems can take seats of the Tories, their vote in local elections are up. I find this promising. And we might even get a second Green MP… fingers crossed.

    Back to Brexit… none of these parties are standing on a platform of magically undoing it. Closer working relationship, and talk of Single Market (“when the time is right”… ie no time soon) is as close as it gets.

    much different to Ed Milliband’s labour prior to 2015 and we know how that turned out

    Completely different set of seats? Were London seats up for grabs in those local elections?

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    The crucial part of that sentence you missed is, ‘in a FPTP electoral system’.

    In functioning democracies the wording of manifestos is crucial because if they go back on one of their red lines they will be severely punished at the next election and quite possibly for several elections after.

    As they should be.

    Well, Scotland does and at least part of what we are talking about here is what happened in Scotland.

    Do we? News to me, in that case I’m sure bus re-regulation is just around the corner as well as that national travel card, national energy provider and whatever else has been promised to us over the years and didn’t materialise.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    Do we? News to me, in that case I’m sure bus re-regulation is just around the corner as well as that national travel card, national energy provider and whatever else has been promised to us over the years and didn’t materialise.

    Don’t think I said Scotland has a functioning democracy. For one thing, it’s missing some key responsibilities.

    It’s definitely got the basis of a functioning democracy with it’s own parliament that uses the D’Hondt system. It just needs to have everything devolved to it so that the distorting power of the independence question means that it can start to function as it was meant to, with coalition governments and frustrating compromises for everyone.

    At the moment it suffers from the same problem FPTP does with the, ‘Well, who else are they going to vote for?’ problem. Post independence that is no longer an issue.

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    The same parliament that you’ve been giving the Lib Dems a kicking for the last however many pages for not fully delivering a manifesto commitment? That parliament yeah?

    So why is it okay for SNP to continually promise the earth, go back on it and get re-elected but the Libs aren’t to be trusted over things that happened 13 and 26 years ago?

    If you can’t be consistent then your argument is worth nothing.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    If you can’t be consistent then your argument is worth nothing.

    Almost a nice gotcha, but it completely misses my point which is that the Lib-Dems stand for nothing. They are for getting into government and against not getting into government. Therefore, if you vote for them on the basis of something they promise they are going to do, prepare to be disappointed.

    The SNP have a central tenet which is independence. If they ever got to the point of being able to deliver independence but then turned around and said, ‘Actually, the Union seems OK so we’re just going to stick with that’ then I would put them in the same box as the Lib-Dems and never consider voting for them again.

    As far as how truthful the SNP were, you’d have to look at each broken commitment and then check it against their manifesto. Were they absolute red-line commitment statements or did they leave themselves wiggle room?

    It could be they flat out lied purely to maximise their seat count but I generally assume independence is the red-line commitment and everything else is a nice-to-have.

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    In case you never noticed they weren’t just elected for the sake of independence, they have a country to run.

    Your argument, as I said, is completely inconsistent.

    theotherjonv
    Full Member

    Late back to this but:

    Completely different set of seats? Were London seats up for grabs in those local elections?

    AIUI it’s a sophisticated algorithm that takes info on the seats that were actually contested, etc, and extrapolates that into an estimate of what the GE result would be. So it shouldn’t matter what seats are actually feeding the machine, it normalises for that. Yeh, maybe.

    On that basis, that’s where they said Labour are similarly positioned compared to Ed Milliband’s Labour at that time (was that the threat of the coalition of chaos? Thank goodness we had stability instead!)

    I’m not sure whether it is that possible to use the old algorithms, because I think we have definitely seen tactical voting to get Tories out this time rather than true voter allegiance. I did, and will do in a GE as well.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    In case you never noticed they weren’t just elected for the sake of independence, they have a country to run.

    Your argument, as I said, is completely inconsistent.

    You forgot to add, ‘imo’.

    Like I said, if you’ve got the inclination to definitively prove me wrong, go back through their manifestos and check the wording on each of the pledges and compare it against their actions in government and then come back and post your proof. As I did with the Lib-Dems.

    Saying that, while it may be justification for some people to refuse to ever vote SNP again, they haven’t personally burned me as the Lib-Dems did so even if you definitely prove that the SNP have gone back on one of their red line pledges it may not change my view.

    The reason for that is that until they betray their central tenet (independence) it’s difficult to see that they have really crossed one of their own red lines. But there might be something out there that I feel strongly enough about to change my mind.

    The Lib-Dems have no central tenet beyond getting government jobs.

    Labour and the Tories have a chance of an absolute majority or at least being the biggest party. They can afford to not have a driving cause (even if they are supposed to have one). The Greens have the environment. Say what you like about Reform/UKIP/BNP, they have a central tenet, even if it is abhorrent.

    The Lib-Dems are just a vacuum of principles and until they find something to define themselves they should just sit down and put their heads on the desk.

    intheborders
    Free Member

    In case you never noticed they weren’t just elected for the sake of independence, they have a country to run.

    They might have, but their #1 Manifesto commitment is independence.

    I don’t hear of Unionist friends/acquaintances supporting the SNP so I reckon we can pretty much assume that folk who vote for them either want independence or don’t care either way. And with the Govt in Westminster 100% against independence plus I believe that if they thought they could get away with it they’d remove devolution, it’s bloody difficult to ‘run’ the country when you’ve only a percentage of the ‘levers’. It’s like driving, but relying on someone else turning right, switching on the wipers and supplying the tyres (that you’ve paid for).

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Someone’s got themselves a big fat Brexit Benefit…

    https://twitter.com/carolvorders/status/1655194771655196672?s=21

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    they haven’t personally burned me as the Lib-Dems did so

    I think this is probably 90% of your beef with them. Don’t get me wrong, I’d be pissed too especially if I was in the 98-2000 cohort that got screwed on fees. But whilst they didn’t deliver exactly what they said they would, if you look at it objectively, they still improved things for a lot of students over the years.

    it’s bloody difficult to ‘run’ the country when you’ve only a percentage of the ‘levers’

    Oh give over, it’s only hard to get bus regulation over the line when your #1 and #2 donators were Brian Souter and Ann Gloag, don’t kid yourself that it was anything more than that. They knew it was never going to happen but it was the hot topic of the day.

    They constantly promise investment in public transport that either comes to nothing or is value engineered such that what’s promised isn’t what’s delivered (EGIP was one example but I forget the exact details).

    But as I say, people keep voting for them and they keep doing the same thing. At least the Libs can claim to have an excuse as it was done in the name of compromise.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    I think this is probably 90% of your beef with them. Don’t get me wrong, I’d be pissed too especially if I was in the 98-2000 cohort that got screwed on fees. But whilst they didn’t deliver exactly what they said they would, if you look at it objectively, they still improved things for a lot of students over the years.

    Sure, but it also made me analyse the Lib-Dems and exactly where they stood on the political spectrum. My own personal experience is one thing but the main problem is you can’t vote for them based on something they say they are going to do. They have no central tenet and therefore they can and will sacrifice literally any of their manifesto commitments.

    The only reason you can have to vote for them is either tactical if the most important thing is to keep the party you really hate out or if you just think they seem like a decent bunch of people, even if you can’t hold them to anything.

    They are pretty much alone in this because Labour and the Tories (and the SNP) are fighting to be the largest party. There is a strong, ‘Who else are you going to vote for?’ attitude and it works because, well, who else are you going to vote for?

    The other small parties have a central tenet that they base their policies around, and you can be fairly sure that they won’t do anything that goes against that. A vote for them shows you feel very strongly about a particular issue and if the main parties think they are shipping votes to single issue parties they will start moving in that direction.

    I just really don’t see what function the Lib-Dems fulfil.

    intheborders
    Free Member

    Oh give over, it’s only hard to get bus regulation over the line when your #1 and #2 donators were Brian Souter and Ann Gloag, don’t kid yourself that it was anything more than that. They knew it was never going to happen but it was the hot topic of the day.

    You’ll have to remind us when bus regulation was a “hot topic” – and with who?

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    Which is fair and perhaps goes some of the way to explaining how they’ve lost so much of the vote share. Thing is, they probably still consider themselves a main party (when have they been anything but?) rather than a fringe party that needs a gimmick.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    Which is fair and perhaps goes some of the way to explaining how they’ve lost so much of the vote share. Thing is, they probably still consider themselves a main party (when have they been anything but?) rather than a fringe party that needs a gimmick.

    Yeah, I’m sure that’s what they are thinking (and why Jo Swinson decided to lead with ‘I can be PM’ in her pitch). To me that just seems delusional though.

    I wouldn’t say something like electoral reform is a gimmick. I’d say if a party chose to focus on this one issue they would find a hardcore of support that would bleed votes from Labour (maybe even Tories but less so).

    Once the D’Hondt system was implemented UK wide the Lib-Dems might actually be successful.

    Like I said, the most successful party this century has been UKIP. And they achieved all their goals without ever winning a seat.

    If the Lib-Dems got themselves a purpose even I might vote for them.

    dissonance
    Full Member

    Like I said, the most successful party this century has been UKIP. And they achieved all their goals without ever winning a seat.

    Just because you say it doesnt make it true. Without the existing support within a large part of the conservatives mps and the foreign owned right wing media UKIP wouldnt have got anywhere.

    welshfarmer
    Full Member
    ratherbeintobago
    Full Member

    To defend the Lib Dems they do believe in liberalism, which is different to either the increasingly authoritarian Tories, or the Labour Party that tried to introduce ID cards (cards themselves not so much ado a problem, big database linked to them OTOH) and is currently refusing to say it’ll repeal the Tories suppression of the right to protest.

    Electoral reform, while it’s noble, doesn’t really grab people’s attention. And d’Hondt isn’t a voting system, it’s a way of allocating seats under proportional voting systems.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    Yeah I’m fairly sure both the EU and much of the UK govt and opposition feel that rejoin is inevitable eventually, they are just playing it steady. The EU can both look like the good guys and look really important if we come back to them.

    The article is not specific about the ties, but talks about future security, and foreign policy arrangements could be high on the list of new partnership talks after the EU leaders praised the leading role the UK has played in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

    A deal on science and satellite communications is already on the cards, with talks reopening recently on the UK’s participation in Horizon Europe, the EU’s €95.5bn (£83.3bn) science and research programme.

    This is the kind of thing I was talking about re “moving closer”.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    Just because you say it doesnt make it true. Without the existing support within a large part of the conservatives mps and the foreign owned right wing media UKIP wouldnt have got anywhere.

    I think you’ve missed the central point I’m trying to make. In a FPTP system the chances of a small party (one that isn’t Labour or Tories) becoming the largest party is close to nil. Therefore what is the point in them?

    The point is to bleed voters from the main parties and force them to adopt your policies to try to entice those voters back. The Tories were bleeding support to UKIP so those voters had to be appeased. Even after the vote the Tories were still so scared of losing votes they continued trying to out-UKIP UKIP until they were virtually indistinguishable.

    Winning in political terms isn’t like a football game where it’s easy to look at the final MP tally and say ‘We won’ (unless your objective is simply to be on the winning side.

    Instead, for non-political people, winning is about getting the outcome you want regardless of who delivers it. Or at least it should be. Too often people view it as a football match, hence so many people here saying the only important thing is to beat the Tories.

    UKIP got exactly the outcome they wanted. How can that be seen as being anything but 100% successful.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    To defend the Lib Dems they do believe in liberalism, which is different to either the increasingly authoritarian Tories, or the Labour Party that tried to introduce ID cards (cards themselves not so much ado a problem, big database linked to them OTOH) and is currently refusing to say it’ll repeal the Tories suppression of the right to protest.

    Electoral reform, while it’s noble, doesn’t really grab people’s attention. And d’Hondt isn’t a voting system, it’s a way of allocating seats under proportional voting systems.

    Their record in the two governments they’ve been involved in says they don’t really believe in anything, other than getting government jobs. And there has been no indication that that has changed.

    How many chances should they be given to prove they have no principles before we finally give up on them?

    dissonance
    Full Member

    I think you’ve missed the central point I’m trying to make.

    Nope. I just disagree with it.
    The reason for the referendum (ignoring the other parties had offered but then backtracked on it) was due to internal infighting.
    The tories and especially some of their MPs were already out ukipping ukip. Some transferred across but most stayed in the tory camp.

    zippykona
    Full Member

    Happy Europe Day everybody.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    Nope. I just disagree with it.

    So you reckon that had UKIP not existed the Tories still would have ended up where they are now?

    I mean, neither one of us can prove it one way or the other but it seems obvious to me that had UKIP never existed the Tories wouldn’t have had to drift as far to the right to chase their votes. You’re the first person I’ve heard say that UKIP had nothing to do with the Tories drifting further and further right.

    politecameraaction
    Free Member

    Yeah I’m fairly sure both the EU and much of the UK govt and opposition feel that rejoin is inevitable eventually

    I’m not so sure the EU gives the slightest shit about the moaning, troublesome bastards in the UK. They’d probably rather spend their time stemming the flow of migrants from Africa, integrating the accession states in the Balkans, propping up Ukraine, or signing more trade deals with emerging markets than burn a million person-hours with us again.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    I’m not so sure the EU gives the slightest shit about the moaning, troublesome bastards in the UK.

    For us to get to that point we’d have had to come a very long way from where we are now so we we wouldn’t be like the old UK at all. We’d be cap in hand for a start.

    nickc
    Full Member

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Looks like the Tories have released that a big chunk of the “EU laws” they boasted of ripping up were in fact not only agreed to by UK Conservative governments, but suggested or championed by them… and so can’t be torn up without undoing their own hard won political gains. Still more than a bit worried about the ones they still plan to do away with… the detail will be interesting (ie just which further rights and protections will we lose).

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member
    kelvin
    Full Member

    Long grass… is Brexit not “done” yet then?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-food-shortages-supermarkets-eu-b2328871.html

    Brexit red tape risks winter of empty supermarket shelves, food chiefs warn

    Exclusive: Fears of new disruption to fresh produce supply from EU when import controls hit in October

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Oh, and is now “too soon” to have a proper investigation into how we got here?

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Just when I thought I couldn’t despise tbe odious little turd any more

    BBC News – Brexit: Rishi Sunak broke his word over EU laws, says Jacob Rees-Mogg
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65555608

    Luckily Whitehall has been working, and someone finally listened and decided to protect the country (and themselves) from unexpected (supposedly) consequences of ill considered policy pledges

    binners
    Full Member

    I don’t believe even Ree-Smug believes this shite any more, if they ever did

    This is all about the internal machinations of the Tory party and a pissing competition between the various gangs of loons and headbangers about which of the bald blokes is left in possession of the comb

    argee
    Full Member

    If Moggs is against it then i’m all for it, he’s been put into pasture after the Liz Truss debacle, he should be chased out of the country the amount of damage he and his cronies have done, and he still can’t just shut up and go quietly, nobody is listening to him, having him be against you is probably a good thing for Sunak weirdly!

    I just wish Brexit was worked out by now by actual adults, keep as much good as we can, try and make use of any potential benefits, with the Ukraine war just now, the whole EU landscape has changed as well, all the brexiteers hoping for us to go back to the good old days are going to be in for a shock i feel in the coming years.

    theotherjonv
    Full Member
    tjagain
    Full Member

    He is too right wing and not green enough 🙂

    frankconway
    Full Member

    You should read his weekly column in The New European.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    “We accept the result of the referendum. But the Brexit as delivered, far from working, is daily damaging the real interests and needs of the people of this country, in ways large and small, and as a matter of urgency its workings must be reviewed and where necessary, new arrangements negotiated and put in place.”

    Hard not to agree with that.

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