Viewing 40 posts - 41 through 80 (of 103 total)
  • Boris launches his leadership bid
  • binners
    Full Member

    There were 2 telling quotes about Johnson from people who have worked with him, both saying the same thing.

    “everyone likes him, apart from those that know him”

    and

    “the more you get to know him, the less you like him”

    I don’t think he’s got a chance. The Tory party never elect the clear favourite for the leadership. Especially when said favourite seems to regard it as a formality/birthright

    The membership would elect him in a heartbeat, but its not their gift to give. He has to get past the MPs first to end up on the ballot. Boris isn’t just disliked, he is absolutely loathed by a significant number of them. There is enough of an ‘anyone but Boris’ rump to unite to stop him. Not least because a lot of them reckon, probably correctly, that his promotion to PM would be such an absolute disaster it would mean the Tories out of power for a generation

    Anyway…. I’ll just leave my illustration I did of him during the referendum to reflect my view of him…

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    a) Brexit – no win, it’s just a stupid thing to do
    b) No Brexit – no win, as there’s a serious democratic deficit there
    c) Second referendum – no win, as it either ratifies the first one, so see a), or it’s 52-48 to Remain, so no-win as the same arguments will rage on [snip]

    Agree re C, plus to be meaningful the choice would have to be between No deal and remain. I think a referendum would be a disaster. It’s just making Cameron’s mistake a second time.

    Not so sure those are the only ways out though. May could try one last time and legitimately argue she gave it her bast shot and it’s not currently possible so she’s withdrawing Art 50 and leaving it to a future administration to leave if they think they can. She can point out that any party is able to campaign and win an election and do it themselves. Then she resigns and takes the blame.

    Alternatively she could leave Art 50 going and at the next election Lab and Con both campaign on a remain ticket. People still have a Brexit option via UKIP or the Brexit party. If a remain party won they can revoke Art 50 in accordance with their Manifesto promise.

    The Tory party ought to be toast over all this but who knows, Corbyn/Momentum haven’t come out of this well either…

    everyone is fairly certain that the Tories are going to appoint someone from the Eurosceptic right of the party.

    Bet they don’t.

    P-Jay
    Free Member

    TBH, the entire thing is no-win:

    a) Brexit – no win, it’s just a stupid thing to do
    b) No Brexit – no win, as there’s a serious democratic deficit there
    c) Second referendum – no win, as it either ratifies the first one, so see a), or it’s 52-48 to Remain, so no-win as the same arguments will rage on
    d) General Election – no win, as Corbyn may win on a Remain ticket, so Brexit may be canned (good), but then he’d be PM (bad). Or the Tories win on an even more right wing, hard Leave ticket, so a no-deal exit is more likely (very, very no-win) and there horrific policies will continue, and get worse.

    Brexit was always no win, from the moment Dave allowed a simple in/out question, how he didn’t see it coming I don’t know. If it had gone the other way I’m pretty sure they could have put the ERG and UKIP to bed, at least for a decade or more.

    I think, sadly Brexit will happen, our best hope was Corbyn and May thrashing out a deal which involved a confirmatory vote.

    I can’t see ‘No Brexit’ happening, yeah technically we’ve passed a law against ‘No Deal’ and there’s a deadline, but no one either here or in the EU seems brave enough to call that ‘No deal or no brexit now’ bluff, maybe they’re waiting for the polls to inch a little closer to remain, maybe the EU elections next week (which are shaping up pretty badly at the moment). Maybe they would revoke A50 with some withering line about spending the next 5 years getting a deal, who knows.

    I can’t see another GE coming, the polls are scattered to the 4 winds, it would certainly be another coalition.

    For me, the answer to the UK’s political woes isn’t a new Tory leader, it’s a new Labour leader – yeah I know Corbynists won’t agree, but he’s lost one GE, lost seats in the Local elections AGAINST MAY and will likely get battered next week too. If Labour can find an Electable Leader who can actually unite people and not divide them, the Tories are dead in the water and could spend the next decade or more in opposition, again.

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    IHN
    Full Member

    For me, the answer to the UK’s political woes isn’t a new Tory leader, it’s a new Labour leader – yeah I know Corbynists won’t agree, but he’s lost one GE, lost seats in the Local elections AGAINST MAY and will likely get battered next week too. If Labour can find an Electable Leader who can actually unite people and not divide them, the Tories are dead in the water and could spend the next decade or more in opposition, again.

    I hadn’t considered this, but I think you’re right.

    Question is, who…?

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    our best hope was Corbyn and May thrashing out a deal which involved a confirmatory vote.

    Corbyn/May want a deal because they can draw a line under brexit before the next GE which both main parties need but their MPs clearly won’t accept it. May’s deal is dead, we’re remaining. We just don’t know how yet.

    For me, the answer to the UK’s political woes isn’t a new Tory leader, it’s a new Labour leader

    I like this, but it won’t happen. And if it did wouldn’t that mean Labour either campaigning for Remain in a GE (or forming an ad-hoc coalition for remain and calling off Brexit) and taking the blame for doing it? It would be my preferred solution, but why would they? In the national interest? (Chortle.)

    P-Jay
    Free Member

    Agree re C, plus to be meaningful the choice would have to be between No deal and remain. I think a referendum would be a disaster. It’s just making Cameron’s mistake a second time

    As far as I can see, and I’m been wrong so many time before there is no kind of 2nd Ref Leave can win, and it’s not a ‘best of three’ type thing as Leavers keep saying.

    Ref 1 was “In/Out” but as “out” was only a theoretical position it was all things, to all people – don’t like Darkies? Then it’s a closed boarder, think annoying legislation is stopping you from exploiting your fellow man for money? Then it’s an open boarder and a trade deal with the US, China and the Middle East, think open boarders is under cutting your members wages and prospects? Then it’s the single market without FOM and a dozen other possibilities – we couldn’t have all of those things, but that’s what leave Promised.

    Forgetting the polls are suggesting that a simple rerun would go the other way, if it’s:

    Remain – No Deal, Remain wins.
    Remain – May’s Deal, Remain wins.
    Remain – as yet unnegotiated Corbyn Deal, remain wins.
    3 way between Remain, No Deal and Deal Remain wins by a country mile.

    The biggest danger of course, and the one I’m vary cautious of when Corbyn walks about Ref2 is Deal v No Deal, that’s the one when we’re offered the choice of Vote for something you don’t want, to avoid something you really don’t want.

    IHN
    Full Member

    Remain – No Deal, Remain wins.
    Remain – May’s Deal, Remain wins.
    Remain – as yet unnegotiated Corbyn Deal, remain wins.
    3 way between Remain, No Deal and Deal Remain wins by a country mile.

    Sauce?

    P-Jay
    Free Member

    I hadn’t considered this, but I think you’re right.

    Question is, who…?

    Tom Watson would probably be the obvious choice Jess Phillips would probably get a look-in, but I don’t know if she’s a bit too down to earth to seem State-personly enough (is that right?) to be seen as PM by voters. David Lammy is probably a bit too divisive.

    Keir Starmer is probably the perfect Centric Labour Leader, apart from the fact he’s only been in Politics a short while (He’s been Knighted, he’s a former QC and went to Oxford and has a handful of honorary degrees all earned prior to Politics, but he’s a self-made Son of working class parents and named after the founder of the Party). Momentum will **** Hate him though as a ‘red Tory’.

    Leftfield – Sadiq Khan, but I think he’d have to resign as London Mayor and become an MP again first.

    Really leftfield – Chuka Umunna, he was well in the running before Momentum came about.

    P-Jay
    Free Member

    Remain – No Deal, Remain wins.
    Remain – May’s Deal, Remain wins.
    Remain – as yet unnegotiated Corbyn Deal, remain wins.
    3 way between Remain, No Deal and Deal Remain wins by a country mile.

    Sauce?

    Opinion based on polls taken pretty much since the words ‘Hard Brexit’ and ‘No Deal’ entered the public mind.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    As far as I can see, and I’m been wrong so many time before there is no kind of 2nd Ref Leave can win

    That’s pretty much what Cameron thought.

    If there’s another referendum Leave won’t even need to mention the EU. The whole referendum can be about “We told you once, kick the establishment in the bollocks.”. Personally I think Leave will walk it. But it really doesn’t matter, the polls are still about 50:50. (Full Fact covered this on FB yesterday.) Whatever we guess it’s tight and a Leave win means leave, and a Remain will means it hasn’t been put to bed and it’s best of three.

    (My political predictions are almost always wrong.)

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    Tom Watson would probably be the obvious choice Jess Phillips would probably get a look-in, but I don’t know if she’s a bit too down to earth to seem State-personly enough (is that right?) to be seen as PM by voters. David Lammy is probably a bit too divisive.

    Keir Starmer is probably the perfect Centric Labour Leader, apart from the fact he’s only been in Politics a short while (He’s been Knighted, he’s a former QC and went to Oxford and has a handful of honorary degrees all earned prior to Politics, but he’s a self-made Son of working class parents and named after the founder of the Party). Momentum will **** Hate him though as a ‘red Tory’.

    Leftfield – Sadiq Khan, but I think he’d have to resign as London Mayor and become an MP again first.

    Really leftfield – Chuka Umunna, he was well in the running before Momentum came about.

    All great candidates. All candidates Momentum would block. The left have finally totally taken over Labour after 100 years when they thought they’d lost the battle for good in 1997. They aren’t gonna throw it all away now.

    fingerbang
    Free Member

    Copied off daily mash:

    Boris Johnson

    There will be voters in the next election who were not yet born when Boris Johnson began his epic run for Conservative prime minister. The blonde buffoon, who is secretly incredibly evil, **** over the entire country to get back at David Cameron and would happily cause nuclear war to reduce sales of Cameron’s memoir. Odds: 8-1.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg

    The choice of Tory members who just want to watch the world burn, Rees-Mogg was a laughing stock at Eton. At Eton. Imagine how much of a bellend you would have to be to be a laughing stock at Eton. Hobbies include sticking pins in the feet of six-year-old chimney sweeps. Odds: 40-1.

    Michael Gove

    The sentient bacterial colony inhabiting the once-living body of Michael Gove cannot understand why it is not already prime minister, since it has the backing of ‘the Murdoch’. It blames humans. They are illogical and weak and must be culled. Odds 5-2.

    Amber Rudd

    Remember when Jeremy Corbyn got put on the Labour leadership ballot as a polite gesture to the party’s left? That’s what Amber Rudd is to the Tories now. That’s how far right they’ve gone. Odds 100-1.

    Daenerys Targaryen

    Burning thousands of innocent people to death just to prove you deserve to be in power is Tory to the core. However Daenerys may face opposition from the Tory grassroots, particularly women, because she is a woman. Odds: 9-1.

    Nigel Farage

    Oh, just give it to him. He’s run your **** party for the last nine years anyway. Odds: Evens.

    Cougar
    Full Member

    In fairness to Amber Rudd

    That’s not a clause I ever thought I’d read.

    no one either here or in the EU seems brave enough to call that ‘No deal or no brexit now’ bluff

    You know, I never understood this as a bargaining tactic. It’s a like going through a divorce where you threaten to leave empty-handed if your partner won’t agree to half the house.

    The UK: “if you don’t give us what we want* we’ll leave with nothing.”

    The EU27: “Awesome. Bye!”

    (* – once we’ve worked out what we want of course, we’ll get back to you on that)

    Question is, who…?

    Tom Watson.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    You know, I never understood this as a bargaining tactic. It’s a like going through a divorce where you threaten to leave empty-handed if your partner won’t agree to half the house.

    The UK: “if you don’t give us what we want* we’ll leave with nothing.”

    The EU27: “Awesome. Bye!”

    It’s because everything’s reciprocal. If the UK leaves with nothing the EU also leave with nothing.

    The one time the EU have conceded anything in this whole process was when they wanted a long extension and May wanted a short one and for a short period they really believed the UK could leave with no deal by default: They conceded the short extension. Leavers have used this as evidence that the EU would have conceded more if they’re really thought we would leave with no deal and they have a point IMHO.

    zippykona
    Full Member

    Tom Watson ,so real he didn’t have to change his name from Stephen.

    Mounty_73
    Full Member

    BJ is a bloody idiot IMO but I dont care who gets in as long as its not Gove!!!

    Now the rest of Europe can laugh at us a bit more now!

    PJM1974
    Free Member

    This Spectator blog sums up the clash between pragmatism, ideology and the impasse where we find ourselves: Swivel-Eyed Loons

    In short, most Tory MPs were broadly supportive of May’s Withdrawal Agreement, but the grassroots activists (which have latterly been quietly usurped over by BluKIP) have a stranglehold over policy.

    It’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next decade or so. Regardless of whether one thinks that Brexit will/will not happen, the demand from activists who have little or no care for the impact on the economy will only grow louder as reasonable voices leave the party in disgust. Party finances are reportedly in a shoddy state, I would not be surprised if the reason why the Conservatives aren’t contesting the Euro Elections (remember to vote on the 23rd May for your choice of unelected EU bureaucrat) is because what’s left in the kitty is earmarked for a GE in the not too distant future.

    Boris lacks both the attention to detail and the intellectual muscle to think up a strategy to pull the party out of the mire, so expect his premiership to be littered with meaningless populist soundbites and cronyism. Although it makes me sick to say this, I’d rather see Gove than Johnson at No 10.

    Cougar
    Full Member

    It’s because everything’s reciprocal. If the UK leaves with nothing the EU also leave with nothing.

    Yeah, but those two “nothings” aren’t directly comparable. We’re one country out of 28, the EU will lose (proportionally based on MEP numbers) a tenth of its membership, the UK will lose nine tenths of ours. It’s like me threatening never to shop at Tesco again and expecting Tesco to come begging me not to because of their lost profits. It’ll hurt the EU, sure, but it’s a drop in the ocean compared to how it’d affect us. As a bargaining tool it’s a really, really stupid one.

    P-Jay
    Free Member

    You know, I never understood this as a bargaining tactic. It’s a like going through a divorce where you threaten to leave empty-handed if your partner won’t agree to half the house.

    The UK: “if you don’t give us what we want* we’ll leave with nothing.”

    The EU27: “Awesome. Bye!”

    (* – once we’ve worked out what we want of course, we’ll get back to you on that)

    No deal is bad for both sides, it just hurts us a lot more – the EU doesn’t want to let go of 14% of it’s total GDP, but we’re straying into EU Ref thread spin-off number 893 here.

    P-Jay
    Free Member

    zippykona

    Subscriber
    Tom Watson ,so real he didn’t have to change his name from Stephen.

    Do you fancy expanding on that?

    DrJ
    Full Member

    It’ll be Sajid Javid.

    You think brexiters will vote for a <church bell> ?

    kimbers
    Full Member

    Do you fancy expanding on that?

    I believe thats a yaxley-lenon reference

    jimster01
    Full Member

    Rudd with odds of 100:1, I’ll slap a fiver on those odds, has the same background as Maybot, shit Home Secretary.

    JRM would never stand for leader, he may be held accountable.

    Private Eye

    salad_dodger
    Full Member

    Next Labour leader will be Rebecca Long Bailey I reckon. Unfortunately.

    perchypanther
    Free Member

    You think brexiters will vote for a <church bell> ?

    Did you just call the Home Secretary a massive donger?

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    You know, I never understood this as a bargaining tactic. It’s a like going through a divorce where you threaten to leave empty-handed if your partner won’t agree to half the house.
    The UK: “if you don’t give us what we want* we’ll leave with nothing.”
    The EU27: “Awesome. Bye!”
    (* – once we’ve worked out what we want of course, we’ll get back to you on that)

    It’s because everything’s reciprocal. If the UK leaves with nothing the EU also leave with nothing.

    It’ll hurt the EU, sure

    See? You *do* understand it.

    No deal is bad for both sides, it just hurts us a lot more – the EU doesn’t want to let go of 14% of it’s total GDP,

    +1. Lots of reasons the EU want this to go away and *really* don’t want a no-deal Brexit. Another example: If Brexit turns the UK into a Basket case, that will be the EU’s mess to clear up purely because of our geographical proximity. (In the same way that the UK had to underwrite Southern Ireland a few years back.) If Brexit works out ok then places like Spain will see there’s a way out.

    but we’re straying into EU Ref thread spin-off number 893 here.

    +1. I got lured in. 🙁

    Boris lacks both the attention to detail and the intellectual muscle to think up a strategy to pull the party out of the mire

    I don’t think the party *can* be pulled out of the mire. …but the country *can* be pulled out of Brexit and I’m pretty sure it is/will be.

    PJM1974
    Free Member

    JRM would never stand for leader, he may be held accountable.

    Haha! JRM’s Victorians has been mauled by at least one prominent critic here., he’s not as clever as he’d like you to think and he has done everything that he can to avoid being accountable for his part in the unfolding Project Brexit disaster.

    Rudd(erless) has been a mixed Home Sec, her acknowledgement of damaging policy is tempered by her need to appease her increasingly rabid local association balanced against her close call during GE 2017 when she came within a couple of hundred votes of losing her seat. She’s clearly May’s anointed heir, but expect her constituency to be a key battleground in any GE.

    I cannot see Wrong-Daily as the next Labour leader, honestly I see the pendulum swinging back towards a moderate like Thornberry or Yvette Cooper.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    she came within a couple of hundred votes of losing her seat.

    Surely this alone rules you out as leader?

    PJM1974
    Free Member

    I don’t think the party *can* be pulled out of the mire. …but the country *can* be pulled out of Brexit and I’m pretty sure it is/will be.

    FWIW, I sincerely hope that you’re correct on both counts. If I get to see the Conservative party become an electoral pariah that fades into oblivion at a GE then the resulting celebrations will merit an epic piss up.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    honestly I see the pendulum swinging back towards a moderate like Thornberry or Yvette Cooper.

    I can’t see Momentum letting go, ever. I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t see how I can be.

    IHN
    Full Member

    (In the same way that the UK had to underwrite Southern Ireland a few years back.)

    Point of order, there’s no such place as Southern Ireland. I think you mean the Republic of Ireland or Eire. ‘Southern Ireland’ is a phrase many Irish find (understandably and rightly) **** annoying.

    Cougar
    Full Member

    but we’re straying into EU Ref thread spin-off number 893 here.

    … which is a good point, and one I didn’t help. <mod>Can we stay on topic please, people.</mod>

    grimep
    Free Member

    So who would make a better PM than BJ?

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Member

    I can’t see Momentum letting go, ever. I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t see how I can be.

    Momentum do not have the sort of power you envision and are not a monolithic entity able to act as one to control the party!. Starmer or Khan would both make likely future leaders. Starmer especially – his stock has risen the last couple of years unlike virtually every other politician around.

    thestabiliser
    Free Member

    our best hope was Corbyn and May

    *Walks slowly into garden with bottle of whiskey and revolver*

    Cougar
    Full Member

    So who would make a better PM than BJ?

    A potato on a stick?

    Edukator
    Free Member

    If Brexit works out ok then places like Spain will see there’s a way out.

    LOL, the Spanish are for a referendum (65%) but just 13% of those polled want out. Try speaking to a few Spanish people, every single one I’ve spoken to thinks Brexit is the Spanish for bonkers.

    duckman
    Full Member

    I am totally behind Boris for PM.
    Yours sincerely,
    Stuart Donald.
    Scottish Nationalist.

    Vader
    Free Member

    Poor old Boris, his constituency have gone all remainey on him.

    Traitors!

    ‘****, where did I put that other speech?’

    binners
    Full Member

    The next labour leader will be whoever Jeremy says it’s going to be. Soviet style. They’ll no doubt be as useless and ineffective as Magic granddad has been

    As for the Tory leadership, it’s academic. Whoever it is will be a rabid Brexiteer who is going to make the last 2 years look like a model of calm, rational, reasoned and effective government

Viewing 40 posts - 41 through 80 (of 103 total)

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