Hugh fearnley-whittingstall has tactically voted lib Dem so based on my analysis they will win the posh one.

Posted 5 days ago

Are we even allowed to talk about them here?

Well so not to upset a couple of people how about a compromise – talk about them but just don’t mention the leader of the Labour Party’s name?

Posted 5 days ago

Are we even allowed to talk about them here?

Sort of conventional (and legal) that there is no party political election coverage during polling days.

So probably best to take a hint from the main stream media and hold off any comments on election performance until the polls close this evening.

Posted 5 days ago

Wakey is a Labour shoe-in given what’s happened recently

Tiverton is a close call but with an aging population and a pension increase/bribe imminent, the Tories might just hold on

Posted 5 days ago

Tiverton is a close call but with an aging population and a pension increase/bribe imminent, the Tories might just hold on

Yeah, wouldn’t be surprised, disappointed, but not surprised

Posted 5 days ago

I hadn’t paid much attention until this morning but now I have ;looked I’m really surprised by the number of candidates in the Tiverton by -8!

I couldn’t give a monkeys about UKIP splitting the vote but what are Labour/LD/Greens doing?

Posted 5 days ago

I couldn’t give a monkeys about UKIP splitting the vote but what are Labour/LD/Greens doing?

Theres a kind of unofficial agreement between labour and the lib dems where they’re fielding candidates for appearances, but labour aren’t actively campaigning in Tiverton and the Lib Dems aren’t in Wakefield

Don’t know about the Greens.

Posted 5 days ago

Well in the SW Moggy could be losing his seat
Results in Tiverton might give some indication how likely that really is

Expected losses for the Tories include environment secretary George Eustice's Cambourne and Redruth seat. Jacob Rees Mogg's North East Somerset seat is one of the four 'at high risk' seats the Cons are currently only set to retain by a narrow marginhttps://t.co/Dl7wCkjRd4 pic.twitter.com/qwLF7Shve2

— YouGov (@YouGov) June 23, 2022

Posted 5 days ago

First I’ve heard of that “Conservative celtic fringe”. Looking at the map, not very fringe-ey, or celtic.

Posted 5 days ago

Bless my soul! I never knew old Moggy was from just south of Brizzle! Shows what I know, I always thought he was a silver-spoon-up-the-arse from Eton way, just how wrong can a man be.

Posted 5 days ago

Looking at the map, not very fringe-ey, or celtic.

It seems to be a recent invention and a bit of a stretch. I think the media wanted something similar to the old red wall and that was their best name

Posted 5 days ago

I think just calling it the SW is more informative!

Whats depressing is that thanks to fptp, despite getting ~40% of the vote there, they get ~80% of the seats!

Posted 5 days ago

Front page of BBC news has nothing about the elections on. Nothing.

Quite astounding.

Posted 5 days ago

standard fayre i think when its a election day

Posted 5 days ago

The polls haven’t closed yet, what is there to report on the front page? Not even the turnout is known yet.

Posted 5 days ago

Polls don’t close ‘till 10pm. See andrewreay’s post.

Posted 5 days ago

Front page of BBC news has nothing about the elections on. Nothing.

Quite astounding.

It could be a deep state conspiracy bollocks

Or

They could be following the ofcom code that prohibits them reporting on it while voting is ongoing. E.g. so you can’t report something to manipulate the behavior of people yet to vote.

Posted 5 days ago

They are not allowed to show polls or predictions till the voting is over

Posted 5 days ago

It’s there if you search.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61898785
But why not on the front page?

Posted 5 days ago

But why not on the front page?

Because the people who look at the website aren’t searching for it and driving it up the priority list

Posted 5 days ago

People are searching about an Afghan earthquake? A 1cm long bacteria. Yeah, sure.

Posted 5 days ago

Have you actually read your link :

“The weather has been warm and sunny in Wakefield, while there has been sunshine and showers in Honiton and Tiverton.”

Is that really front page material?

Posted 5 days ago

deleted – don’t want to get involved

Posted 5 days ago

It does seem more subdued reporting than normal. No hanging around polling stations taking pictures of dogs and so on.
Rather than conspiracy though I suspect its more plenty of stuff going on and the cost of popping down to either constituency is rather high especially without trains.

Posted 5 days ago

deleted – don’t want to get involved

Shame the current crop of tories don’t take the same philosophy

Posted 5 days ago

I mean…

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 42% (+2)
CON: 31% (-3)
LDEM: 10% (-)
GRN: 5% (+1)

via @SavantaComRes, 17 – 19 Junhttps://t.co/5ksWvd9Km0

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 23, 2022

Also

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 36% (-2)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
GRN: 5% (-3)
REF: 4% (+1)

via @KantarPublic, 16 – 20 Jun
Chgs. w/ Mayhttps://t.co/5ksWvd9Km0

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 23, 2022

!!!!

Posted 5 days ago

Yeah there’s a big difference between a poll giving Labour a 2% lead and one giving them an 11% lead.

I’m not sure why such a difference when both were carried out about the same time. I believe that disaffected Tory voters were creating issues for pollsters by not revealing who they would vote for instead.

I would be suspicious of methodology of the 11% Labour lead one as there has only been one other poll in the last couple of months which put Labour on a double digit lead, and that one was also by Savanta and it was also 11%

Posted 5 days ago

The nicotine-stained man-frog is presently on Newscast saying that he’s ‘mobilising’ to get the UK out of the ECHR

Fair play to Victoria Derbyshire for calling out his bullshit

He’s worried that Boris wasn’t committed to Brexit and was only using it as a piece of political opportunism

Surely not?

Posted 5 days ago

Pot kettle

Posted 5 days ago

From the Beeb:

The Liberal Democrats believe they have won the by-election in Devon.

Blimey, let’s hope so!👍

Posted 5 days ago

Worth staying up for and now feeling like crap. Well done Labour, fantastic job Lib Dems! Particularly nice to see that smug Tory candidate for the Devon seat get wiped aside!😆

There is hope.😁 If tactical voting/ unofficial “coalitions” are what it takes, count me in.

Boris, enough, how sod off and take your conservative party UKIP Party with you.

Posted 5 days ago

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/24/tories-lose-byelections-wakefield-tiverton-honiton-labour-lib-dems

Boris, enough, how sod off and take your conservative party UKIP Party with you.

Annoyingly, he’s safe for the moment. The backbenchers might start plotting a bit, especially with him out of the country for a week (strategically hiding…) but the VONC stuff is safe cos he won the last one and short of a change in the rules, they can’t hold another VONC for a year.

But it does put a lot of pressure on him. See what BS and blister he comes up with this time.
Delivering on Brexit, best employment ever yadda yadda whiff whaff….

Posted 5 days ago

Well…..that’s cheered me right up

Jacob Rees Mogg’s North East Somerset seat is one of the four ‘at high risk’ seats

As has this. The sooner this **** clown is shown the door, the better. I really can’t understand why on earth anyone would vote for him to represent them

Posted 5 days ago

Well. That’s the first good news we’ve had for quite some time. Like a pair of sweetcorn kernels in the steaming bucket of shit that uk politics really is.

Posted 5 days ago

Oliver Dowden has quit as apparently “someone must take responsibility”. Or has been told to.

Posted 5 days ago

Surely this must be the end?

I’ve been saying that since Donald Trump mocked the disabled reporter. And two impeachments and partygate and Jennifer Arcuri, and and and. But I keep being surprised so I have no faith that he’ll go.

Still, this is a good day for sanity.

Posted 5 days ago

Fewer Tory perverts on a Friday clears the morning air.

They do seem to fall like this.

Posted 5 days ago

The Tory candidate in Tiverton did seem particularly awful which probably didn’t help. The q&a I saw with her looked like a comediene parodying thick grasping tory of the worst kind, a sort of younger Nad type of thing.

Posted 5 days ago

Haven’t seen the turn out figures, need to see how many Tory voters actually voted against and how many just didn’t turn out.

Shows how effective unofficial pacts can be, of course.

Posted 5 days ago

Turnout was down 24 to 40% in Wakefield &
52%, down 20 in Tiverton

So pretty standard for a by election but makes it difficult to really judge what it means

Interestingly the pollsters & pundits got the Wakefield results pretty accurate, but everyone understimated how bad it was for Tories in Tiverton

Especially if you consider that the MP there was ‘only’ looking at porn V compared to ex wakeyMP

Posted 5 days ago