Expectation management from Labour?
10pts would be more believable, but it could well still be much closer, polling from the red wall for Tories is bad ATM, so assumption is they won’t win Wakefield.
Rwanda & ECHR policies will appeal to a certain demographic tho.
Tiverton is more critical for Tories it’s been Tory for 30 years and they won by 20,000 votes last time
Wakefield as a recent Tory acquisition, they are less likely to be worried about (tho like many red wall seats it’s been slowly switching from red to blue since the 80s)