And the seat wasn’t contested by the Greens and Pliad Cymru, the majority is only 1400, its not a resounding win

Actually that’s just something brexiters are trying to console themselves with, pc & greens combined got <5% vote last time there.

I think a lot of this is wishful thinking from remainers who’ve had very little to cheer for the last few years. At a General Election, a proper ‘remainer alliance’ would have to involve the labour party, and with the present leadership, that is simply never going to happen. They don’t do co-operation as idealogical purity must trump everything, including actually getting elected

I still think that Johnson is getting ready to call a general election, more so now his majority has been reduced. With the labour party in its present shambolic state, who wouldn’t?

He’s got Dominic Cummings in specifically for this reason. To employ the same dark arts and dodgy practices (Cambridge Analytica) that won the referendum to get himself a majority.

Depressingly, given the state of what nominally passes for HM Opposition, he’ll successfully split the vote (actually – they’ve done that themselves on Borises behalf) and walk it

Then we really are ****ed

I see that today its the announcement of where they intend to open ‘Freeports’

Its a catchy name, but lets call them what they actually are, eh? Tax havens.

Still a win for Remain and a loss for Leave.

The calculation that Johnson and Cummings need to make is how many votes can they take back from Brexit party with a No Deal approach compared with votes lost to Lib Dems – especially in suburban Tory areas. Given FPTP it’s not a national numbers game – it’s multiple local numbers games.

The worrying thing is that Cummings as a non-ideological advisor he can employ win by any policy tactics and the supporting mechanisms to assess and promote whatever will work.

What we don’t know from last night’s results is how the votes moved between parties. Labour’s vote dropped from 7335 to 1680 for example. Not all of them will have backed the Lib-Dems, some will have gone to the Brexit Party. There’d have to be some adjustment to allow for the differing turnouts. Somewhat surprisingly the constituency used to be a Labour stronghold.

At least its shown that lib dems, greens and plaid can work together for remainers, but Labour won’t join in and are going to be the biggest loosers in any GE from what I can see.

Labour’s vote dropped from 7335 to 1680 for example. Not all of them will have backed the Lib-Dems, some will have gone to the Brexit Party.

Labours know they’re are haemorrhaging support, and their own stats show that they are losing 4 voters to the Lib Dems to every one thats going over to Farage. You’d think that would inform their subsequent strategy. Unfortunately it would appear that there isn’t one.

Boris (or the delightful Mr Cummings) will certainly have one

At least its shown that lib dems, greens and plaid can work together for remainers,

I doubt they would cooperate in the same way in a GE. Tories would take that seat back in those circumstances.

The lesson for the Tories is that Farage will keep eating into their vote share

Farage has promised to put up 100s of GE candidates.

His ego is so great that he will find it hard to back down.

Actually that’s just something brexiters are trying to console themselves with

I think they will come away from today’s vote with a spring in their step TBH. Clear leave parties have damn near 50% of the vote and that’s with an MP who was recalled by his constituents for being a cheaty cheating tosspot, and without combining their campaigns**. Clear remain have scrapped in with a teeny majority (less than the combined leave vote) and with a massively unpopular opposition leader, and with having two national* parties bowing out.

Yes, it’s a good thing that Johnson majority is down to 1, and there are all sorts of rumours of Tory MPs defecting, but again that only plays to the Johnson/Cummings election strategy of “We don’t want to have an election, we really want to get on with things” nudge nudge wink wink…

There is little cheer to come from this election as a remainer.

*yes, I know, I mean nationally recognised…

** don’t think for a minute, that having worked together before, Cummings and Farage aren’t cooking up an agreement as we speak….

1. This was a Leave voting constituency, now electing a staunch anti Brexit party.

Cummings was on the official Leave campaign and hated the secondary Aaron Banks/UKIP campaign.

His ego is so great that he will find it hard to back down.

What if he targets seats where the Conservatives normally perform poorly, but Brexit Party was well received at the EU elections? Or where the Conservatives have a candidate he doesn’t like? He could choose to target Labour and the more sensible Tory MPs… perhaps reducing Johnson’s “Conservative” majority, but increasing the balance towards No Deal Brexit nutters in parliament?

…or he might just split the pro Brexit vote three ways and allow in the libdens.

Ironic that if the conservatives had supported the lib den PR bill way back in 2010, they would have won this byelection.

…or he might just split the pro Brexit vote three ways and allow in the libdens.

Lots of seats that can happen, yes… but not nearly enough for them to get past much more than 50 seats. At this point I would very much like to be proven wrong though.

the lib den PR bill

It wasn’t PR, and it wasn’t a LibDem bill… but you are right, it could have changed things dramatically. Although it might have resulted in a Brexit Party win… many of yesterday’s votes were tactical… there’s no way of knowing what people’s real first preference would have been if we had a different voting system in place.

Cummings was on the official Leave campaign and hated the secondary Aaron Banks/UKIP campaign.

Cummings hates everybody who he thinks isn’t as smart as he is, and thinks that he’s generally the smartest person in any room he’s in…But, above all else he’s a pragmatist who above all else wants Brexit to happen, and those around him generally understand that if you follow what he says, then you’ll mostly get the result you’ve asked for. If you’re relying on a split Tory/Brexit party vote for the upcoming election for a remain win, I’d make your peace with Brexit now to avoid disappointment.

that’s with an MP who was recalled by his constituents for being a cheaty cheating tosspot,

Clutching here! the Tories have just elected a f— business PM , who’s admitted to taking coke & cannabis has just left his family in the latest of a string of affairs and fatherless kids… While farage has had to pay back many multiples of Davies has in fraudulent expenses. Brexiters have no qualms about voting for cheaty cheats.

If you’re relying on a split Tory/Brexit party vote for the upcoming election for a remain win, I’d make your peace with Brexit now to avoid disappointment.

Sadly this is true despite 3 years of national humiliation & chaos, Brexit has become a cult, the Tories, once the party of business are now openly admitting they will shaft the economy.
And the cultists love it
Strange times

1. This was a Leave voting constituency, now electing a staunch anti Brexit party.

Try reading the succesful MPs website,no mention of stopping Brexit and in the speeches I heard from her and the LibDem leader all that was mentioned was stopping a No Deal Brexit,so maybe equivocation is catching 😉
https://www.janedodds.wales/my-plan

even the torygraph, johnson’s personal fanzine are acknowledging that No Deal Brexit being pushed by Johnson will be terrible for Welsh farmers

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/30/store-welsh-farmers-brexit/

No Deal is the core Johnson message and that is a dangerous game to play

He’s got Dominic Cummings in specifically for this reason. To employ the same dark arts and dodgy practices (Cambridge Analytica) that won the referendum to get himself a majority.

Not sure if it’s him but the Tories have already started harvesting potential voter data on Twitter & Facebook using these ads…

T W E N T Y
T H O U S A N D
M O R E
P O L I C E.

🗣Let Boris know where you'd like to see more – https://t.co/8AkT4hRd0g

👍 Like if you want more officers on the streets. 👮‍♀️👮‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/F0HKCVLTB9

— Conservatives (@Conservatives) July 31, 2019

PM’s Common’s majority has now reduced to One … 😬

The next GE will be fun with NO majority and a 4 horse race … 😃

Boris has managed to magic up billions of quid. When there’s over 120,000 kids officially homeless, 250,000 kids lost school meals under may, 20,000 less cops. Where the **** is this money coming from?😡

Where the **** is this money coming from?

I imagine mostly Hammond’s head room because brexit will be the amsumz so who needs a contingency?

Where the **** is this money coming from?

Something, something, the side of a bus?

Where the **** is this money coming from?

ooh ooh, I know, is it The Magic Money Tree?

I’m loving all the right wing pundits who’ve spent 3 years lionising garage, 3weeks lionising Johnson

Now complaining there is no Brexit alliance.

Farage has pledged to contest all 630 seats, he’s in America right now fundraising to do just that.

The populist genie is out of the bottle & you can’t put garage back, his ego is too huge!

We all knew Liz truss wasnt the brightest but stil….

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1157696024900788224?s=19

That’s high quality skewering by Eddie Mair – and Truss deserves it; another politico who exemplifies the ‘Peter principle’ of being promoted to the level of one’s own incompetence – Peter Drucker, if you’re interested.

On dear Johnson is in trouble

farage is going to snatch his votes away in every seat

Our first slate of 50 Prospective Parliamentary Candidates to fight a Brexit general election.

100 more will follow next week, watch this space. pic.twitter.com/xGG7qk84Zp

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) August 3, 2019

On & this is being paid for by his far right American backers

https://eutoday.net/news/politics/2019/world4brexit

Our first slate of 50 Prospective Parliamentary Candidates to fight a Brexit general election.

100 more will follow next week, watch this space. pic.twitter.com/xGG7qk84Zp

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) August 3, 2019

We need Treebeard and the Ents to save us!

Why is Cummings announcing government policy and saying what parliament can and cannot do?
Its more like a junta has taken over and BJ is just their front man.

On dear Johnson is in trouble
farage is going to snatch his votes away in every seat

Ok me looking into the crystal ball into the future …

While those two cannibalise each other’s votes, Lib Dem and Labour (Green etc) will form an alliance to snatch a GE win from them. Then the winner celebrate in big style to demonstrate they prowess.

But after their celebration they will notice they face the same problems to govern so they call for the help of EU army to assist them. For the first time in history there will be foreign army setting foot in UK soil to quash a rebellion.

The charade continues for another decade or so … The End. 😆

Do you ever worry about the varying relationship between your effective vocabulary and your grammar?

Do you ever worry about the varying relationship between your effective vocabulary and your grammar?

😅

Our grammar is rather different in the far east …

So is your grasp on reality. There is no EU army.
I’d take that crystal ball back where you bought it if I were you.

So is your grasp on reality. There is no EU army.
I’d take that crystal ball back where you bought it if I were you.

That is the “reality” of crystal ball so not going to argue with crystal ball.
No refund as it is a crystal ball … hang on … I would have seen that in the crystal ball before buying. They must have seen me coming 😂

…so they call for the help of EU army to assist them…

What EU Army?

https://fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/

Grammatical differences are one thing, attempting to get away with posting absolute rubbish is quite another.

What EU Army?

https://fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/

Grammatical differences are one thing, attempting to get away with posting absolute rubbish is quite another.

You need to ask the Independent newspaper …
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-army-angela-merkel-macron-germany-france-military-european-commission-juncker-a8633196.html

Other info … not sure if they are true but there you go …
QUARTZ
EUobserver
EU Parliament

Somewhat surprisingly the constituency used to be a Labour stronghold.

The constituency hasn’t been held by Labour since 1979 ( 4 decades ago!) and in the 101 years that the current constituency has existed Labour have only held it for 42 years, with the Liberals/Lib Dems and Conservatives holding it for the majority of the other 59 years.

It is an extremely rural constituency, traditionally the kind that votes Conservative or Lib Dem.

Prior to the amalgamation of the constituent areas (Radnorshire and Breconshire) the individuals constituencies had only ever been held by Parliamentarians/Whigs/Liberals or Tories/Conservatives.

It was actually an achievement for Labour to hold the constituency as long as they did, one that went against historical precedent.