At the current rate of deterioration in the global weather systems patterns!

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  • At the current rate of deterioration in the global weather systems patterns!
  • Premier Icon GrahamS
    Subscriber

    GrahamBS

    I like that loum. Very “clever”.

    Junkyard
    Member
    kaesae
    Member

    nealglover, you can take an ass to the waters of common sense, you can beat it with the stick of common sense! but unfortunately you cannot make it drink!

    The weather is unpredictable and floods are happening all over the country, is it stupid to take simple measures that could greatly increase your chance or the chances of others to survive?

    Do what ever you think you should and good luck!

    nealglover
    Member

    nealglover, you can take an ass to the waters of common sense, you can beat it with the stick of common sense! but unfortunately you cannot make it drink!
    The weather is unpredictable and floods are happening all over the country, is it stupid to take simple measures that could greatly increase your chance or the chances of others to survive?

    It would be fairly stupid yes.

    These floods are no different to the floods that happen every year round here (often 3 or four times a year) for my entire life, and long long before it too.

    As I said before (you chose to ignore it so ill say it again) the recent floods are nowhere near as bad as the floods in 2000 and the floods in 2000 were nowhere near as bad as the floods in 1625.

    So in fact, the Evidence shows that the floods are getting Less Severe wouldn’t you say ???

    (I would like an answer to that question please)

    During the last week, My house was cut off by flood water.

    I got wet legs as I had to walk through the flooded road to get to the shop (and the pub)

    But if you want to build an Arc with its own alternative power supply and stocks of food, you go ahead.

    You will need to park it after a couple of hundred yards and walk the rest of the way to the pub though, as it was only the bit of road near the Beck that flooded, at least you will have dry shoes though.

    piemonster
    Member

    Kaesae seeing a new response to his thread

    kaesae
    Member

    Thanks piemonster, don’t worry if any catastrophic event does happen, the Tories will mobilize all available resources and save themselves!

    Hahahahahaha!

    CountZero
    Member

    nealglover, I would not assume that what we have seen so far are the worst we will see over the next couple of years, normally I would gleefully wind you up, but this is very serious.

    I would advice that you review your safety procedures for flooding and also invest a small amount on the right equipment, would it be too big a deal to buy some life preservers or other relevant kit?
    I’ll certainly take those suggestions under advisement.
    When I was a kid, the road that the one I live in now connects with used to flood regularly, and the high street, which has the River Avon at the bottom, also used to flood, to the point that a tractor and trailer used to ferry pedestrians across the flooded river. Then they dredged the river, to a depth of around five meters, compared to a depth that was shallow enough for me to wade into and catch crayfish.
    The river hasn’t flooded significantly since the early 1960’s.
    Most of the flooding in recent years, while changes in weather and climate can certainly be held partially responsible, can mostly be blamed largely on more and more land being concreted over, housing estates being built on flood plains, inadequate drainage, ditches being ignored and allowed to fill up with garbage and detritus, all of which leads to one devastating situation for those whose house happens to lie on a flood plain.
    It’s called that for a very, very good reason!
    Coastal erosion along the south coast is as much due to southern England still sinking, while Scotland is still rising, as a result of the retreat of the monster ice sheets from the last ice age, when I would have been able to look North from my house at a sheet of ice a mile high, creaking and groaning in the dark. It stopped around the line of the M4.
    What caused its retreat, kaesae? Man made global warming?
    Oh, BTW, I wasn’t serious about taking notice of the flood risk, I live around 190 feet above sea level, it ain’t going to flood up here. ๐Ÿ˜€

    nealglover
    Member

    I will post it again Kaesae as you seem to have missed it (again)

    As I said before (you chose to ignore it so ill say it again) the recent floods are nowhere near as bad as the floods in 2000 and the floods in 2000 were nowhere near as bad as the floods in 1625.

    So in fact, the Evidence shows that the floods are getting Less Severe wouldn’t you say ???

    (I would like an answer to that question please)

    piemonster
    Member

    Thanks piemonster, don’t worry if any catastrophic event does happen, the Tories will mobilize all available resources and save themselves!

    Hahahahahaha!

    [video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNLwHWFpPsI[/video]

    kaesae
    Member

    nealglover, as a member if my race I feel a certain obligation to warn you of what I perceive to be a very real threat.

    However the warning is all that I consider I am obliged to give you, since I am in a generous mood I will also say this.

    At what point in the recent history of our race, let us say for the last 2,000 years as an approximate figure or time frame. Has the weather on this planet been as hostile, unpredictable or potentially lethal as it is now?

    If as you say in 1625 there were floods far worse than the ones you have recently seen and again in 2000, then is it not reasonable to conclude that this kind of flooding is not only possible but also likely and should therefore be prepared for?

    countzero, what about the volume of the water, does it play any part in your evaluation of the current situation?

    As for not being affected by flooding or it’s effects on our culture / country. Are you factoring in crop failures to your evaluation of the problem and what about power shortages or widespread disease, any number of factors associated with flooding really?

    These are times of great change for our country, those of you that do not want to make any type of preparations for unexpected events are free to do so!

    Since I plan on going camping and climbing and hiking and canoeing as well as lots of other survival activities if I can, I have no problem using the floods and other potential events as an extra excuse to buy myself some new stuff ๐Ÿ˜‰

    nealglover
    Member

    nealglover, as a member if my race I feel a certain obligation to warn you of what I perceive to be a very real threat.

    Fine, but as you don’t seem to know what you are talking about, I’ll pass on the Life preservers thanks.

    However the warning is all that I consider I am obliged to give you, since I am in a generous mood I will also say this.

    No idea what that means.

    At what point in the recent history of our race, let us say for the last 2,000 years as an approximate figure. Has the weather on this planet been as hostile, unpredictable or potentially lethal as it is now?

    Well, in terms of flooding, as that’s what we have been discussing.

    Pretty much constantly, although in the past (as I have told you) it seems to have been much worse.

    [Quote]If as you say in 1625 there were floods far worse than the ones you have recently seen and again in 2000, then is it not reasonable to conclude that this kind of flooding is not only possible but also likely and should therefore be prepared for?[/quote]

    Well, the floods come and go.

    People get wet feet.
    Kids ride their bikes through the flood water and have a laugh.
    People who bought houses in areas that are known to flood regularly get wet carpets (not much of a shock)

    But where is the need for Alternative lighting/heat sources and life preservers.

    I live in one of the most regularly flooded areas, of one of the most regularly flooded cities in the UK.

    And the worst that’s happened in my lifetime is that I’ve had to walk through a bit of water to get to the shops, or been a bit delayed getting to work

    Your living in a dream world I’m afraid.

    druidh
    Member

    A wet dream world?

    kaesae
    Member

    Yes druidh a wet dream world!

    big_n_daft
    Member

    At what point in the recent history of our race, let us say for the last 2,000 years as an approximate figure or time frame. Has the weather on this planet been as hostile, unpredictable or potentially lethal as it is now?

    how is anyone going to know? we have more information now than could ever have been imgained before. Weather still occured in the past it is just that we (now) don’t know what happened.

    the written record for this small corner of the planet refers to extended period of worse weather than we have now causing famine and pestilence

    CountZero
    Member

    At what point in the recent history of our race, let us say for the last 2,000 years as an approximate figure or time frame. Has the weather on this planet been as hostile, unpredictable or potentially lethal as it is now?

    How about this, kaesae, this was sometime in the last 2000 years:

    Great Famine

    In the spring of 1315, unusually heavy rain began in much of Europe. Throughout the spring and summer, it continued to rain and the temperature remained cool. These conditions caused widespread crop failures. The straw and hay for the animals could not be cured and there was no fodder for the livestock. The price of food began to rise. Food prices in England doubled between spring and midsummer. Salt, the only way to cure and preserve meat, was difficult to obtain because it could not be evaporated in the wet weather; it went from 30 shillings to 40 shillings.[4]
    In Lorraine, wheat prices increased by 320% and peasants could no longer afford bread. Stores of grain for long-term emergencies were limited to the lords and nobles. Because of the general increased population pressures, even lower-than-average harvests meant some people would go hungry; there was little margin for failure. People began to harvest wild edible roots, plants, grasses, nuts, and bark in the forests.[5]
    There are a number of documented incidents that show the extent of the famine. Edward II, King of England, stopped at St Albans on 10 August 1315 and no bread could be found for him or his entourage; it was a rare occasion in which the King of England was unable to eat.[6] The French, under Louis X, tried to invade Flanders, but being in the low country of the Netherlands, the fields were soaked and the army became so bogged down they were forced to retreat, burning their provisions where they left them, unable to carry them out.[7]
    In the spring of 1316, it continued to rain on a European population deprived of energy and reserves to sustain itself. All segments of society from nobles to peasants were affected, but especially the peasants who represented 95% of the population and who had no reserve food supplies.[8] To provide some measure of relief, draft animals were butchered, seed grain was consumed, children were abandoned to fend for themselves (see “Hansel and Gretel”), and some elderly people voluntarily refused food in order to provide nourishment needed for the younger generation to survive.[8] The chroniclers of the time wrote of many incidents of cannibalism.[8]
    The height of the famine was reached in 1317 as the wet weather continued. Finally, in the summer the weather returned to its normal patterns. By now, however, people were so weakened by diseases such as pneumonia, bronchitis, and tuberculosis, and so much of the seed stock had been eaten, that it was not until 1325 that the food supply returned to relatively normal conditions and the population began to increase again. Historians debate the toll but it is estimated that 10โ€“25% of the population of many cities and towns died.[3] While the Black Death (1338โ€“1375) would kill more people, it often swept through an area in a matter of months whereas the Great Famine lingered for years, drawing out the suffering of the populace.[3]
    [edit]Consequences

    The famine is called the Great Famine not only because of the number of people who died, or the vast geographic area that was affected, or the length of time it lasted, but also because of the lasting consequences.
    The first consequence was for the Church. In a society where the final recourse to all problems had been religion and where Roman Catholicism was the only tolerated faith, no amount of prayer seemed effective against the causes of the famine, which undermined the institutional authority of the Catholic Church.[3] This helped lay the foundations for later movements that were deemed heretical by the Church because they opposed the Papacy and blamed the failure of prayer upon corruption within the church.[3]
    [edit]Cultural
    Second was the increase in criminal activity.[3] Medieval Europe in the thirteenth century already experienced widespread social violence, and even acts then punishable by death such as rape and murder were demonstrably far more common (especially relative to the population) compared to modern times.[3] With the famine, even those who were not normally inclined to criminal activity would resort to any means to feed themselves or their family.[3] After the famine, Europe took on a tougher and more violent edge; it had become an even less amicable place than during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries.[3]
    The effects of this could be seen across all segments of society, perhaps the most striking in the way warfare was conducted in the fourteenth century during the Hundred Years’ War where chivalry was tossed aside, versus the twelfth and thirteenth centuries when nobles were more likely to die by accident in tournament games than on the field of battle.[3]
    Third was the failure of the Medieval governments to deal with the crisis.[3] Just as God seemed unable or unwilling to answer prayers, the earthly powers were equally ineffective, eroding and undermining their power and authority.[3]
    [edit]Population
    Fourth, the Great Famine marked a clear end to an unprecedented period of population growth that had started around 1050;[3] although some believe this had been slowing down for a few decades already, there is no doubt the Great Famine was a clear end of high population growth.[3]
    Finally, the Great Famine would have consequences for future events in the fourteenth century such as the Black Death when an already weakened population would be struck again.[3]

    CountZero
    Member

    I also draw your attention to this:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

    The Year Without a Summer (also known as the Poverty Year, The Summer that Never Was, Year There Was No Summer and Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death[1]) was the year 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4โ€“0.7 ยฐC (0.7โ€“1.3 ยฐF),[2] resulting in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.[3][4] It is believed that the anomaly was caused by a combination of a historic low in solar activity with a volcanic winter event, the latter caused by a succession of major volcanic eruptions capped by the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, in the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia), the largest known eruption in over 1,300 years.
    Historian John D. Post has called this “the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world”.[5]

    kaesae
    Member

    If you feel that all of those facts are reasons not to make any preparations for the future, then that is your choice.

    Will climate change make it less or more likely that similar events will occur in the future?

    mt
    Member

    Well given that our countries food security is at a 39 year low. Some sort of weather event could make us vulnerable if it was Europe wide. Best get me poly tunnel and greenhouse in good order. May even sharpen up my spears.

    All I have to say is that we are Doooooooooooooooooooooomed. Which is probably true but not today.

    konabunny
    Member

    I don’t know – which events are we talking about? what was the incidence of such events in the past? What were the causes of those events? To what extent will the climate change and in what way? How will those changes affect the causes of the events we are talking about? To what extent and how? And will those changes increase the incidence? And can that changed incidence be mitigated by any individual preparations?

    mt
    Member

    ch ch chaaanges, the weather?

    piemonster
    Member

    No questions will be answered with anything but a question. And when you answer a question, expect no response other than a question. And do not expect those responses(I mean questions) to be relevant to any question or answer.

    All we know for certain is that you will be both WRONG and/or MORALLY BANKRUPT. Or both, probably both…..

    This end result will be proved with nothing, and even if you provide evidence that this end result is anything other than correct. You will still be wrong. And this wrongness will be proved by a question not directly related to the former.

    CountZero
    Member

    Piemonster, a sussinct summation of kaesae’s various threads. Like a three year old asking a tricky question, and when answered says ‘but why?’, and says the same to every answer. That’s kaesae; ‘why?’ why?’ why?’ why?’ why?’
    ad nauseum.

    nealglover
    Member

    Keasae wrote:

    Will climate change make it less or more likely that similar events will occur in the future?

    I’m going to reserve my opinion on this, until I have heard yours.

    So ?

    (With evidence please, you know, Facts and Figures and stuff. Like grown ups use.)

    CountZero
    Member

    Keasae ยป Will climate change make it less or more likely that similar events will occur in the future?

    Yes.

    kaesae
    Member

    Here’s a question for you, obviously I only answer questions with questions and never answer a question directly. I have actually planned to answer some questions, but for some reason my threads keep getting closed!

    Are the Chinese and Russians making any kind of preparations?

    You know, like building shelters and stock piling food reserves, I’m not too keen on idiots and if I’m honest, can’t see why they seem to be the only commodity that is in plentiful supply these days.

    Nasa have sent a warning message to all of their employees. [video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQ8K3ofGWrQ[/video] I would think that what they are saying is a good idea for any sensible person!

    Perhaps I am wrong and just another fool, maybe we will see calm, the weather over the next 30 = 90 days should give us some indications of what is to come.

    Premier Icon GrahamS
    Subscriber

    Nasa have sent a warning message to all of their employees

    Yes. In America. Where they regularly get hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes.
    If we start getting those in the UK I’ll be sure to have a “family preparedness programme”

    the weather over the next 30 = 90 days should give us some indications of what is to come.

    i.e. winter?

    druidh
    Member

    We always could record the mean daytime temperature in Edinburgh over the next 90 days, extrapolate it for 30 years then apply that rate of change to the planet as a whole.

    nealglover
    Member

    I have actually planned to answer some questions, but for some reason my threads keep getting closed!

    Maybe you should try answering the ones that are already on this thread then.

    Rather than asking some more ๐Ÿ™„

    Premier Icon glenh
    Subscriber

    GrahamS – Member
    Nasa have sent a warning message to all of their employees
    Yes. In America. Where they regularly get hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes.
    If we start getting those in the UK I’ll be sure to have a “family preparedness programme”

    Due to the unstable nature of our weather, the UK has the highest frequency of tornados, per unit area, of any country in the world:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_climatology

    kaesae
    Member

    Exactly! but up until now, these have been small tornadoes. what’s the chances of a decent sized one?

    kaesae: this is your best ever thread

    nealglover
    Member

    Exactly! but up until now, these have been small tornadoes. what’s the chances of a decent sized one?

    No idea.

    Go on, What are the chances ?

    CountZero
    Member

    Exactly! but up until now, these have been small tornadoes. what’s the chances of a decent sized one?

    Very, very small. We don’t have the very large flat areas necessary to generate the storm conditions that tornados spin off from. It’s no coincidence that the vast, flat central parts of North America are called ‘Tornado Alley’.
    And have been for decades, if not centuries.
    In the same way that hurricanes are born in the Caribbean, and work their way clockwise around the east coast of America and across the North Atlantic to us, like the weather system that’s on it’s way at the moment, Hurricane Iris, I believe.
    As I understand how weather systems develop, it’s next to impossible for a storm system capable of spawning an F5 to develop in the UK.

    piemonster
    Member

    Go on, What are the chances ?

    You’re not getting this are you, you don’t ask questions. You answer them, then are either proved wrong with no evidence or ignored.

    Asking a question LOL, you silly sod when will you learn.

    piemonster
    Member

    buzz-lightyear – Member
    kaesae: this is your best ever thread

    I know it’s really made my week.

    I’m just hoping he picks up on the global populations issues, and the dual threats of agricultural fossil fuel reliance and land quality degradation.

    Premier Icon GrahamS
    Subscriber

    Hmm.. I don’t know about the others, but the flood pictured in Newcastle, Newburn and Morpeth in that gallery happened at the end of September – a few weeks before your “next 30 = 90 days” prophecy was delivered.

    Some look like they might even be from the big storm in June.

    Seems the Telegraph is being a bit disingenuous lumping them all together like that.

    (Welcome back by the way)

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