Sort of agree with Taz and aracer, I don't think there's been a defintive display of what either of them can do yet so at the moment I think Armstrong's good for it.

I think armstrong has been tested 40 times since he said he was returning? Thats like once a week almost?

I am assuming that the doping thing is just "business as usual" whatever that is. I can't see why Armstrong's approach to it would differ from Contador's. The last guy who really pissed me off was Ricco, that attack was just so spectacular and exciting, and then he got busted. Brice Feuillu has the potential to be very irritating for the same reason, but presumably we'd have had a positive from his stage win if we were going to.

The pot is simmering, it's got to boil over soon 🙂

Personally I reckon the deal was Armstrong was to get some early stages and then ride for Contador in the later part, but these are A types so who knows what will actually happen.

So is there no hope that Nocentini can hold on to the lead?

It was and still is all talk of Armstrong Contador, but the reality is this fella after 9 stages is leading them.

Also am I right in thinking this is Nocentini's first tour? It looks that way from his rider profile.

FWIW, I want Armstrong to win.

Personally I reckon the deal was Armstrong was to get some early stages and then ride for Contador in the later part, but these are A types so who knows what will actually happen.

My thoughts are the pair will stay within a few points of the malliot jeune until the final stages when Brunyeel will have to say 'may the best man win' and it really will end as a 'let slip the dogs of war' moment in the alps.

As I've said in this and previous threads (agreeing with tinsy) Armstrong will win…

Maybe I'm missing something here but going from recent results:

Spanish National TT Championships – Contador wins time trial

Prologue – Contador beats Armstrong
Stage 3 – Armstrong gets 40 odd seconds on Contador due to being in the right place at the right time.
Stage 4 – TTT – Astana have the strongest team and put time into everyone else
Stage 7 – Contador leaves everyone standing – check the video – no-one was getting close to him – Armstrong had to sprint just to cover the attempted chase – there was no way he'd have caught Alberto.

I haven't seen anything that suggest that Armstrong still has it. Sure he's a great rider, and can keep up with the top few in the mountains if he has protection, but there is a big difference between being able to keep up, and having the strength to be able to attack and get away. That's what Armstrong used to be able to do with ease – doesn't look like he can any more. Armstrong hasn't shown anything so far – in fact the only GC contender who has is Contador.

If the roles were reversed, and Armstrong had beaten Contador in the ITT, and left him standing on stage 7, we'd all be on about how he was dominating the tour once again. The fact is he hasn't thus far, and in my opinion can't any more.

I think armstrong has been tested 40 times since he said he was returning? Thats like once a week almost?
and…?
means nothing. Not just referring to Armstrong but all other riders. Sorry but this whole 'been tested lots therefore must be clean' bit doesn't wash. We got lucky with Cera last year, but as with all other sports, the dopers are one (or more) steps ahead of the testers…IMO of course (with a huge amount of historical evidence to support it)

So is there no hope that Nocentini can hold on to the lead?

It was and still is all talk of Armstrong Contador, but the reality is this fella after 9 stages is leading them.In a word. No. He is only leading because they are letting him.

I thought Armstrong had showed in previous years that he was happy to not sit in yellow, as it avoided the discussions and team effort on whether to defend it.
Sure both he & Contador are more than happy to let someone else have it 'on loan' for a week or so, before the big hitters kick off in the Alps and the fun really starts.

C'mon Cav, need a couple more to match last year now 😀

Sorry but this whole 'been tested lots therefore must be clean' bit doesn't wash.

AndyP your words hold a grim truth. I've been following Armstrong on twitter and as much as I admire him he's pretty cock sure about the tests he's had. Can't help thinking that sport has suddenly become extremely clean all of a sudden 😉

Who would have thought, for example, that a 6'5" man would become the world's fastest sprinter?!

Would hate Armstrong to be done for drugs as I'm a massive fan, but things that are too good to be true usually are!

Watching the ITV4 coverage last night was once again fasinating

Armstong seems pretty adamant that he can beat AC.

AC seems pretty mad about the whole situation. Reckon neither will follow team orders and I really hope that we get a full blown shoot out in the Alps (ie hope that a deal is not done)

Oh and hopefully Cavendish in Green 🙂

I think we are lucky they are both on the same team, when it does come to crunch time, it will be those 2 against each other, if they were on differnt teams I dont think the bunfight would be as interesting.

Its probably best not to forget there are lots of other riders still with a shout, who knows what could happen….

There is no way on this earth that Armstrong is doping. People may well doubt his past (I for one think he's always been clean)

But think how much he would lose if he was found to be doping this time around, he has no need at all to do it, his Livestrong foundation would crumble around him, in turn millions of dollars worth of cancer funding would be lost.

His sponsorship deals as the most famous cyclist of all time would also disappear. He would have to be incredibly stupid to be doping, and thats one thing Armstrong is not.

Odd crashes aside, not only are the other riders not really in with a shout, not even Lance is in with a shout.

Winner will be Contador, or possibly Contador.

I think it more likely that Kloden and Leipheimer will overtake Armstrong than Armstrong overtaking Contador.

want a fiver for charity on it glenp?

Warton – I agree

Glenp – I agree that I think AC will win. Don't think for one second it is a clean cut as you imply. Or maybe I am just hoping. Before every six nations I think Scotland can win 😀

Somebody will have to start attacking big time when they get to the Alps & see if they can finish off some of the big names, enough for them not to come back on all the downhill finishes

If they all hold back for much longer it'll be a one day tour [on Mt Ventoux]

Poor course selection this year IMO

The course has been badly designed.

Not sure why they have 'sanitised' so many of the mountain stages by not having mountain top finishes.

Reckon it will go to Ventoux. Exciting but dull at the same time????

Fiver on what? Contador to beat Armstrong? No problem!

Although if you want to maximise the potential money to charity you can still get 7/2 on Armstrong…

For that matter Leipheimer is 50/1 – as a bet on Contador being unable to finish for a crash or somesuch that's worth a fiver.

Taz, I agree, the pyrenees were a waste of time, and pretty much all of the alps will be to, although the ventoux saturday is going to be an amazing day of cycling

Already told Mrs Taz I will be sat firmly in front of Euro Sport for that Saturday :D.

Wonder if she will agree to fetch me beer???

glenp your on for a fiver for charity bet….

I don't think the outcome is anywhere near as clear cut as glenP thinks. Armstrong, Sanchez, Evans, even Andy Schleck will make pretty sure he gets a run for his money. Favourite certainly, winner? Maybe

I really can't see where anyone [except Armstrong] can find the required time

How about the theory that Astana are playing poker (or should we say Chess on Wheels) and the media love the fictional rivalry between the two…

It would be great to see Saxo Bank, Cervelo , Garmin and Rabobank working to shred Astana but, based on previous experience, the big hitters will sit there playing poker face until all they are racing for is second place.

I get the feeling that it's just fodder for the press. Alberto is the future and Lance is the past. I think there is enough publicity for Lance and Livestrong. Just looking at Lance's calendar tells me that he's not so serious when he says he is going for the win, or rather, what he says and what he realistically can do are not the same. Didn't he used to focus his whole year on the tour, this year he's put in a fair few races. Not quite the same training regime as the younger, fitter Lance.

Secondly, Alberto is the future, if Astana give the win to Lance, I would be looking for another team.

Vamos Alberto!!

Its still all going to plan……

On the 'Rest Day' Armstrong, Cav, Wiggins and Hincapie all road together – they're up to something IMHO!

Few new signings for next years 'Livestrong' team 🙂

Yip! It appears Astana (as we know it) could be history

Acracer: What exactly is everybody basing the theory that Armstrong is slower in a TT and in the hills on? Just on the "prologue" TT and one attack in Andorra? Yes Contador might be ahead on that basis, but the gap in the TT certainly wasn't big enough for it to be totally implausible for Armstrong to turn it around after a couple of weeks. Meanwhile if you think that attack in Andorra proved anything much, you really don't understand bike racing

Personally i'm basing this on Contadors proficiency at time trialing (remember the olypics?), Armstrong being 13 years older, Armstrongs weight at 74 KG and Alberto's at 64kg – you sound pretty young with your racy name n'all you can probably recall GCSE physics! And i do understand that Armstrong's hands were effectivly tied when Contador attacked – 🙄

So that's what i'm basing that on!

Although it must be said that it is unlikly that Contador will be climbing like he did in the 2007 tour – i'm not alone in thinking that his display that year was dubious to say the least.

if Astana want the publicity they'll let Lance win, simple as that…

It would do wonders for Lance's image if he worked for Contador to help him win.

but it's Lance we're talking about here. He'd rather die than lose. I personally think he's playing a waiting game and has his plan right close to his chest. At some point he's going to try pull out a lead.

Lance Armstrong rides for Lance Armstrong and no team instructions are going to make any difference to that.

I'll take that fiver bet. I reckon lance will win and to be honest, it's a race I'm looking forward to watching.

Either way it certainly isn't boring this year!

One of the things I admire but not neccesarily like, (if that makes sense) about LA is that he is so focussed and driven.

He says he is there to win. Not much will get in his way of pursuing that goal.

Suporting Contador would win him some short term accolade. Longer term a win would cement him as legend of the sport (even more than he is already) and ultimately be a launch pad for whatever are his next projects (Livestrong, Politics, ???)

All that aside. Most captivating TdF for some time. Got to be a good thing.

Here we go!!!! Clickety-click!

Thought I might bump this one back to the top. Any changes of opinion after that little display from Contador? Pure class, so fluid.

Contador to win!!! rock on what an awesome stage today watched it live on ITV4 and was jumping around the living room so excited! As for Wiggo (as he calls himself!) what an outstanding display from an Olympic 4k pursuiter! Having lost 7k in weight since Beijing! WOW!!

Contador to win!!!

no sh1t..;)