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  • After the Goldrush – Bike sales?
  • Premier Icon gazzab1955
    Subscriber

    If the stories in the press and anecdotally are true and bike sales have been through the roof during “lock down” will we see lots of sales in the Autumn when new stock arrives?
    After all if everyone and his mother has a new bike surely there will be less people around needing a bike at the end of the year and shops (LBS or online) will need to do something to entice folk to buy.
    An alternative view is that lots of new bikers have bought their first bike during “lock down” and will want something better when normal supply resumes, ergo demand will go up on the top end bikes. I have heard stories of people buying any bike they can get their hands on, definitely not the way to choose your next ride, which could also increase demand on the better bikes.

    Discuss

    dumbbot
    Member

    Depends how many people still have jobs come the Autumn. I have a real urge for a new bike but for once in my life I’m going to be sensible and just wait, save up some cash and see how things play out with the economy.

    Premier Icon cynic-al
    Subscriber

    Lots of factors…

    Known: folk may give up riding in crapper weather, or those who haven’t managed to get a bike in may be less interested

    Unknown: supply may still not meet demand.

    Also those who lose their job may be sell sh making demand lower.

    I’d expect bikes will be in higher demand than normal tho.

    kerley
    Member

    I would think sales will be lower than normal come winter although guess they are pretty low at winter anyway. Will also be lots of second hand bikes for sale as people didn’t use them as much as they thought they would, found out it is not always nice weather to ride it and need some money due to recession/loss of job. With more second hand seldom used bikes around less people will be buying new.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Subscriber

    Not just bikes. Groupset are out of supply. Even major retailers are struggling to source. And this from the horses mouth

    Premier Icon simondbarnes
    Subscriber

    will we see lots of sales in the Autumn when new stock arrives?

    No. There is no 2020 stock left (all gone weeks ago) and lots of 2021 stock already pre-sold to customers. Lots of 2021 models now looking at Feb / March availability for orders placed now.

    I’m really struggling to find ANY bike that will fit me… After 10 years away, I appear to have chosen literally the worse time return to mountain biking!

    Although I couldn’t care less if it’s women’s specific or not, just finding anything small enough to fit me is proving massively challenging.

    You can not get a lot of stuff at present ordered a pair of Shimano 540 pedals from LBS they are not due in till August and a lot of 2021 Treks are slowly being introduced I have Domane ordered not here till end of August.

    What do people think about the “shed factor” that apparently loads of the people that buy bikes and never use them just leave them languishing rather than sell them?

    Wonder if that’s the reality rather than the deluge of bargain second hand stuff people are expecting to see? I guess it depends on how bad the recession is?

    Premier Icon fossy
    Subscriber

    Stocks of components seem to be “iffy” at best in most on-line retailers.

    Love a bit of Neil Young.

    Sales? You’re having a laugh!.

    Seriously, it’s bloody brilliant, aye it may cost me a few extra quid for my next bike, but it’s fantastic to see the bike shops locally doing really well, even though some are only open 4 hours a day.

    If anyone really wants a bike, I’d get it pre-ordered, cos things ain’t gonna change for a while.

    ogden
    Member

    I’m trying to find some brakes for a decent price and am struggling.

    Premier Icon reluctantjumper
    Subscriber

    If even 10% of the people who bought whatever bike they could find during lockdown decide they like riding enough to take it up full-time that’s a lot more people who will be in the market for a better bike for the next year or so. This extra demand won’t have been figured into the bike company’s projected sales numbers so supply will still be less than demand. The key will be if the gyms and leisure centres are open by the time the winter weather comes in, then we’ll know if these new riders stick with two wheels outside or retreat back to the warmth of a gym with showers and a coffee machine.

    It will be a good year or more before we start to see heavily discounted bikes unless they’re a model that is crap or has a very poor spec for the price.

    Premier Icon argee
    Subscriber

    There really isn’t that much stock around, i’m guessing the likes of pauls cycles, etc will struggle to get this years stock, let alone normal folk, bar the bikes that haven’t sold, and mostly for a reason, i.e. they’re weird sizes, or not popular.

    Premier Icon ampthill
    Subscriber

    If even 10% of the people who bought whatever bike they could find during lockdown decide they like riding enough to take it up full-time that’s a lot more people who will be in the market for a better bike for the next year or so.

    This.

    People I know are out there putting in rides in the real world. They are waiting to find a better bike in stock. Lots will drop out but lots won’t. The guy I’m thinking of is, like me, a man in his 50s who likes the outdoors. His knee stopped him running. It took lock down to do the obvious and persuade him to cycle instead

    Plus supply in China has been affected

    Plus as the furlowing stops and schools and college re open we will see the second spiked caused by “I’m not getting on that germy bus”

    I think they’ll need to be incentives for people to go to the shed and hand over bikes for repair and distribution to people who need them

    Loughan
    Member

    Not just bikes. Groupset are out of supply. Even major retailers are struggling to source. And this from the horses mouth

    Well i asked about this with the horse in the field and it said neigh comment
    IGMC

    Premier Icon cynic-al
    Subscriber

    This

    I wouldn’t be so sure.

    Not every cyclists has to have the latest bike, like on stw.

    Premier Icon bruneep
    Subscriber

    After all if everyone and his mother has a new bike surely there will be less people around needing a bike at the end of the year and shops (LBS or online) will need to do something to entice folk to buy

    I’m sure there will be another new standard that we all must have as the previous standards were rubbish

    Premier Icon chakaping
    Subscriber

    The interesting question (to me) is whether supply will be increased for 2021, or remain at the “normal” level.

    Premier Icon matt_outandabout
    Subscriber

    I agree with the 2021 bikes/kit being a sell out, with a lot more new riders.

    I also see a lot loosing jobs, a lot loosing interest and so a busy second hand market of lower end or old bikes this winter and beyond…

    That’s a lot of ‘loosing’… 🤔🤣

    Premier Icon matt_outandabout
    Subscriber

    Doh.

    toomba
    Member

    There will be a flood of good second hand bikes come winter time. I am seeing it happen now with a couple I know buying top end bikes and all the gear in lockdown now back to work golf course opened up again so bikes being Put up for sale

    mboy
    Member

    There will be a flood of good second hand bikes come winter time.

    It’s going to be crazy! There will be some serious bargains to be had for patient cash buyers, that’s for sure…

    What do people think about the “shed factor” that apparently loads of the people that buy bikes and never use them just leave them languishing rather than sell them?

    There will be a small element of that, but not too much… I see it when people spend less than say £200 on a bike, that happens quite often. But when they spend more, if they’ve not used it within say 6-12 months, they tend to get sold back on (usually at a heavy loss) to pay towards whatever is more important at the time.

    Will also be lots of second hand bikes for sale as people didn’t use them as much as they thought they would, found out it is not always nice weather to ride it and need some money due to recession/loss of job.

    These will be the biggest factors… There’s going to be a lot of people who lose the romance with cycling, once they realise the incredible weather we’ve had in 2020 so far is the exception rather than the norm for cyclists. But there’s going to be HUGE job losses, many people who weren’t necessarily expecting it, and as such supply of 2nd hand bikes will start to outstrip demand, this will drive the prices down too and it’ll carry on for months if not years!

    Remember, for every boom there is a bust… We’ve experienced a bit of a bust for the last 2-3 years prior to 2020, the current COVID situation is the biggest boom the cycling industry has seen in living memory, and there will be another bust afterwards as a result too I fear…

    Premier Icon cookeaa
    Subscriber

    If even 10% of the people who bought whatever bike they could find during lockdown decide they like riding enough to take it up full-time that’s a lot more people who will be in the market for a better bike for the next year or so.

    It’s not going to be that many, maybe 2-5% will rediscover a love of cycling, of those only a small number will be buying a new bike within 2 years, most people aren’t actually that profligate.

    TBH the most beneficial change might be if we see people replacing short car journeys with a pedal to work/town/pub which really only needs your average punter to buy a BSO…

    Premier Icon benpinnick
    Subscriber

    I don’t think long term its going to have a huge effect (the increase in numbers cycling), see below on the weather – what I think will continue to have an effect will be Covid as we bounce in and out of lockdowns, and international travel (and hence holidays) remain difficult. Were still seeing strong sales, contrary to what you might hear factory delays are at a minimum so most stock is flowing fine if you’re on top of it, but of course time to restock is an issue when you sold what you thought would last months. Even if the factory has capacity a lot of restock orders from distributor > factory have only occurred in the last month which means its often a couple of months + before the shops will see that stock.

    Since it stopped being sunny the number of general sales which was at an incredible level has fallen drastically and almost instantaneously, suggesting to me that the while the normal coil shocked Enduro race bike we sell mainly at this time of year is back with a vengeance (we’re actually turning over more than we were during the bike rush, just off a smaller number of units), the punters stopped wanting a bike pretty much as soon as the weather stopped being day in day out sunshine. That doesn’t bode well for long term expansion of the cycle market as we’re never likely to see that sort of weather again let alone during a time when everyone is off and bored.

    Combine that with huge numbers of job losses and I would expect to see a return to ‘normal’ at best in the market overall in 2021 and with masses of 2nd hand bikes for sale it could be a tough return to earth for some retailers if they overbuy off the back of a good 2020.

    Dont think the importers will over stock in 2021 they have been burnt too many times wont help the local dealer if he cant get enough bikes in we will see.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    After all if everyone and his mother has a new bike surely there will be less people around needing a bike at the end of the year and shops (LBS or online) will need to do something to entice folk to buy

    Well my actual mother bought a bike and has subsequently gone a bit nuts buying accessories and gear!

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