- This topic has 6,282 replies, 176 voices, and was last updated 4 years ago by kelvin.
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2019 General Election
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dissonanceFull MemberPosted 4 years ago
Candidate pays deposit.
I am referring to the fees he charged candidates on top of the official deposit.
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years agoHe stops LibDem and Labour gains in currently Tory held seats, while still taking votes off of Labour in a few Labour held seats.
Don’t forget, his “party” has never seriously been a party aimed at getting MPs into parliament… he has held the Tories feet to the fire and helped transform their party into the new UKIP… this move today is to stop there being some combination of opposition parties keeping the Tories out of government long enough to hold another referendum.
dissonanceFull MemberPosted 4 years agoWhat’s the Quid Pro Quo for Farage then?
Seat in the Lords? So he can take a bunch of cash whilst not bothering to do much. Be just like the European Parliament days for him. Although downside is he would need to turn up more often I think.
That or its just what Putin told him to do.
martinhutchFull MemberPosted 4 years agoHe was demanding that Boris drop the WA and go for No Deal in return for pretty much the same thing a couple of weeks back. He said that the WA was Brexit in Name Only etc. Has Boris done a deal to move closer to that position in return for the chance of a majority?
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years agoHe’s promised that the transition period will end next year, and there is now no all UK backstop that keeps anything in place after transition for Scotland, England & Wales.
dazhFull MemberPosted 4 years agoIf only labour had spent the past 3 years making the case to the labour heartlands brexiters that this is a right wing con job that will destroy them not free them.
Have they not been doing that? Every time I hear labour talk about brexit all I hear is stuff about Trump and his mates buying the NHS, destruction of workers rights and environmental protections, becoming an offshore tax haven, sweatshop manufacturing etc.
Also why is it that when it comes to remain voters labour should ‘listen’ and be more centrist, but when it comes to leavers they should put their foot down and tell them they’re wrong. You can’t have it both ways.
stevextcFree MemberPosted 4 years agokelvin
Many target seats for the Tories rely on ex-Labour voters who no longer consider Labour as the party for the patriotic working class voter turning to Farage’s joke candidates. It makes little sense, but there you are.
Much as it shouldn’t make sense it obviously does for them.
As I said pages and pages ago … a GE or a referendum is incredibly foolish if those ex-labour voters feel no-one is listening to them except the BXP.The reality is that the BXP provides somewhere “not Tory” for people to vote that on the face of it is basically saying “vote for us and we hear your concerns”.
Meanwhile the push for the lowest bar continues in campaigning….
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoThis will still win the Tories some seats off of Labour that they wouldn’t win without a Brexit Party candidate sitting. If you can’t see why and how, well…
By way of example?
GowrieFree MemberPosted 4 years agoElectoral Calculus now has Tory majority of 114 seats – up from 90 yesterday with prediction of any Tory majority at 69% – up from 60% yesterday.
kimbersFull MemberPosted 4 years agofrankconway
Subscriber
dissonance – if candidate nomination forms have not been submitted, deposits will not have been paid; deadline is 4pm on Thursday this week.
Candidate pays deposit.This isnt about nomination
BXP ltd isnt a normal party, to be considered as a BXP candidate you had to pay Farage £100 !
dogboneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoThis will still win the Tories some seats off of Labour that they wouldn’t win without a Brexit Party candidate sitting. If you can’t see why and how, well…
But that only kicks in if more Labour voters switch to Brexit than Tory voters. I suppose this could include a fair number of ‘I dont care how but just get on with it’ crowd.
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years agoBy way of example?
How many examples do you want? Lots of seats where a Brexit Party candidate could well take enough votes off of Labour for the Conservatives to win the seat off of them.
But that only kicks in if more Labour voters switch to Brexit than Tory voters.
Yes, this is true, which might only be 20 or so seats… but those might well map closely onto the Labour seats the Tories are targeting. It’s not going to have the same effect all over the country, but that’s FPTP for you… it only needs to be a strong effect in a small number of seats to swing the election.
molgripsFree MemberPosted 4 years agoThey have been afraid for too long to tell them they were wrong
You have no idea how people work. The whole point of democracy is that it’s the other way round. In reality, the media tell people what to think and the politicians fall over themselves to agree with as many people as possible. Telling the electorate they are wrong, especially on an emotive issue.. well.. not even Labour are that daft.
mattyfezFull MemberPosted 4 years agoThe way I see it, it means the far right vote wont get diluted by BXP in Tory safe seats, so those safe seats will either stay tory or lose to lab lib.
Result – no gains for tory, potentially, if unlikely a few tory losses.
In seats where BXP do stand, they could end up diluting the far right vote between BXP and Tory, allowing a Lab or lib gain.
Equally it could go the other way and allow a BXP candidate to take the seat from Lab/Lib, HOWEVER, given how bad FPTP was for UKIP the last few GE’s, that might mean teh sum total of sweet FA.
IDS told BBC Radio 4’s the World at One programme: “Well I would hope that this is the start of the Brexit Party recognising that even standing across the board in those sort of seats will also end up helping those Labour incumbents who are sitting there worrying at the moment about the fact that they have a very, very large Leave vote, and if that is split, then that means they might just sneak through.
“Which could be the difference between us winning a majority, and only becoming the majority party and of course winning a majority is critical, if you want to deliver Brexit and Boris to stay.”
Remeber, Tories have 198 MPs currently, they need to make a net gain of seats (so no lost seats) of about 22 seats for a majority.
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoHow many examples do you want? Lots of seats where a Brexit Party candidate could well take enough votes off of Labour for the Conservatives to win the seat off of them.
That doesn’t take into account that the BXP candidate may well take a bunch from the Tories too.
outofbreathFree MemberPosted 4 years agoRemeber, Tories have 198 MPs currently
Typo. You meant 298.
dissonanceFull MemberPosted 4 years agoSounds like some of the brexit party ex-candidates are now going to be standing as Independent Brexit Party (this time its really a party and not a business) candidates.
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years agoThat doesn’t take into account that the BXP candidate may well take a bunch form the Tories too.
I have taken that into account. There are some seats where the Brexit party are mopping up ex-Labour voters who think Corbyn is anti-British (I don’t think that) and are willing to vote ‘Brexit’ but would never vote Tory. In those seats many Tory voters have returned to the Conservative Party thanks to Johnson talking all the strong man no surrender bullshit. Most seats aren’t like this, but some of the Tory target seats currently held by Labour are.
dazhFull MemberPosted 4 years agoThere’s an awful lot of pointless whataboutery going on here. The point about tactical voting is that it should be voter led. All this ‘A should stand down for B’ or vice versa is massively counter-productive and is also massively patronising. The voters know when they are being taken for fools, and I’m confident they’ll response accordingly. Many BP voters won’t take kindly to being told to vote tory, and many won’t. The more parties try to engineer the result, the more voters will react against it.
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years agoWhere does this confidence come from?
Do you think the Greens standing down in our seat will result in more votes for Labour?
cromolyollyFree MemberPosted 4 years agoYou have absolutely no idea whether increasing the highest rate of income tax and the level of corporation tax for larger companies by a few % points would be counterproductive at all… you’re just guessing…
Sure I do. We have loads of actual data so no need to mess around with pure theoreticals or guess.
A few points is a bit vague but as you say, it depends on a range of factors. We do know just how far you can go before it becomes counterproductive from a huge amount of data collected across lots of countries for many years.
Denying that just allows politicians to make outlandish claims that have 0 chance of happening. Bit like the 350 million a day we are going to save as soon as Boris gets his majority.dazhFull MemberPosted 4 years agoDo you think the Greens standing down in our seat will result in more votes for Labour?
I do. But Calderdale is a special case, where the tory majority was less than the number of green votes last time. Even with that I don’t think it will work, because there will be enough die-hard remainers voting for the libdems to extend Whittaker’s majority (I hope I’m wrong!).
As for my confidence, I’m not confident the BP stand down in tory seats will not help the tories, because it will. But I fundamentally disagree with trying to engineer the results by standing down candidates, and think the majority of voters do too. Tactical voting is fine, but it has to be the voter’s decision, not the parties by standing down candidates.
mattyfezFull MemberPosted 4 years agoSorry to block quote, but it’s easier than paraphrasing:
Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, has poured cold water on suggestions Nigel Farage has swun the election for Boris Johnson and the Tories.
In a blog post titled ‘Farage’s election stand-down will make little difference’, he points out that the Brexit Party was already trending downwards in the polls.
“The most important swing to look at in the polls is the one between Labour and the Conservatives. Despite a move away from two-party politics since the last election, it is still the case that most marginal seats are battles between Labour and the Conservatives, and this is the most important dynamic in deciding who will be celebrating Christmas in 10 Downing Street.”
He concludes: “So overall, despite today’s drama, this is unlikely to be a game-changing moment.”
stevextcFree MemberPosted 4 years agomolgrips
You have no idea how people work. The whole point of democracy is that it’s the other way round. In reality, the media tell people what to think and the politicians fall over themselves to agree with as many people as possible. Telling the electorate they are wrong, especially on an emotive issue.. well.. not even Labour are that daft.
There is or was a time and place where/when/how …. a minimum amount of votes would be lost and maximum gained and another time and how that potentially see’s the maximum lost and minimum gained.
One way or another Labour were going to lose votes if they did this but they could potentially have also picked up a great deal of “anything but Tory” voters. (like myself)
Personally I like Corbyn as a person … and I actually repect him but I don’t respect his all-or-nothing and fence sitting. I’m fundamentally a remainer because it’s my identity … I’m European by outlook…. however that aside I think the major benefit of the EU politically rather than economically (which should be a no brainer)… is that it actually acts to prevent the excesses between the ultra-wings at both sides.
I think if Corbyn was world president we might have a decent world but in the real world I just see fantasy red unicorns…
dissonanceFull MemberPosted 4 years agoGood to see the brexit company havent remembered to take down their page about why Johnsons deal isnt a proper brexit.
mattyfezFull MemberPosted 4 years agoStolen from twatter:
As Nigel Farage takes £100 from would-be candidates before unilaterally deciding they won’t stand, Brexit Party members get to know what it really feels like to send sums of money to undemocratic, unelected leaders.
Heheh!
tjagainFull MemberPosted 4 years agoI still am not buying the supposed tory majority
As well as the 22 gains they are also going to lose most of the Scottish tories. With polling where it is I just don’t see it
binnersFull MemberPosted 4 years agoIs someone going to have a word with grandad and remind him that expressing support for dodgy, corrupt South American narco-states is fine when you’re an anonymous backbencher, but when you’re in an election campaign where you want to be PM, all it does is write tomorrow’s Daily Mail headlines for them
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years agoWith polling where it is I just don’t see it
You’ve worked out some key points…
• SNP will get close to 2015 number of MPs
• LibDems will only get about 30 seats, at best
But you’re in denial about one big one…
• Labour will do worse than in 2017
And ‘polling where it is’ suggests that quite strongly.
Of course this can all change (and I hope it does) but current polling suggests a Tory Majority… and that needs to be chipped away at seat by seat, by all parties. Things need to change. My Social Media is full of Greens condemning other Greens, Labour wittering on about Swinson, LibDems banging on about Corbyn, Labour getting angry about a Scottish Referendum… the Tories are laughing their coke filled heads off.
AlexSimonFull MemberPosted 4 years agoAnd polling where it is suggests that quite strongly.
At this point in the 2017 election (one month to go), what did the polling suggest then?
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years agoMuch the same. And then the Labour manifesto was leaked, and people were surprised that they liked what they saw. Will we have an event like that this time? Can Corbyn surprise people two years later? I think things will turn towards Labour later in the campaign, but not as much as in 2017… because people have noticed how their Labour vote in 2017 was used, and won’t be coming back. Labour will be judged on what they have been saying and doing for two years, by all sides, not just on what is in their 2019 manifesto. We can still see off a Tory majority… but a Labour majority at this election is a pipedeam.
GowrieFree MemberPosted 4 years agoWill we have an event like that this time? Can Corbyn surprise people two years later? I think things will turn towards Labour later in the campaign, but not as much as in 2017…
And May was a terrible campaigner, and announced some unpalatable (to those whose votes she needed) manifesto items. Boris has many faults, but he is a capable campaigner
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoBoris has many faults, but he is a capable campaigner
He’s shit at mopping.
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoIs someone going to have a word with grandad and remind him that expressing support for dodgy, corrupt South American narco-states is fine when you’re an anonymous backbencher, but when you’re in an election campaign where you want to be PM, all it does is write tomorrow’s Daily Mail headlines for them
You forgot to mention – another US backed coup with the intent of taking out the socialist leader – who after being democratically elected – it was claimed the vote was fraught with irregularities by the US Organizations of American States.
“Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), tweeted Sunday that OAS “never did find any evidence of fraud in the October 20th election, but the media repeated the allegation so many times that it became ‘true,’ in this post-truth world.”
https://www.thenation.com/article/bolivia-election-oas/
“On October 20, Bolivians went to the polls to choose their president and congress. Evo Morales, the country’s first indigenous president in a country with the largest proportion of indigenous people in Latin America, was on the ballot for reelection. His main opponent, former president Carlos Mesa, is vastly preferred by the Trump administration.”
So yeah – wrong horse Binners. You’re backing a Trumpian pony.
binnersFull MemberPosted 4 years agoWell it all depends on your news sources.
The point is that someone sensible, who’s in the process of trying to get the top job, would just steer well clear of the subject.
It’s an election in the UK, so just stick to the rather more pressing issues closer to home that voters want to hear about. Theres no bloody shortage of them. But he just can’t help himself, can he? Ever the sixth former…
It just delivers yet another open goal to the Tories and their attack dogs in the right wing press to wade in with their Marxist nut-job/terrorist sympathiser narrative.
He needs some proper advisors to take him to one side and have a quiet word when he starts banging on about stuff like this
outofbreathFree MemberPosted 4 years agoWell it all depends on your news sources.
Yup, and if we trust the Guardian form 2016 then the people voted against changing the rules to allow a fourth term and Morales stood anyway:
…and then the Independent has the most detailed comment I can find on today’s events and points out, amongst other things, that Bolivia’s trade union federation union called for Morales to step down:
You’re backing a Trumpian pony.
I doubt Binners has a dog in this fight. [1] However, if we do want to play that game the Russian Foreign Ministry also called Morales’s exit part of an orchestrated coup d’etat today and Russia’s been square behind Morales even after he lost the referendum. The Torys have got a suppressed report to explain away – they’re going to love yet another example of Corbyn siding with Putin to add to the list.
…and one more thing if it’s ok to ignore referendums held in 2016 why is Labour so respectful of our 2016 referendum. Don’t tell me, I know.
[1] Nor should Corbyn/Momentum at a time when their focus really ought to be on winning the election they’ve been demanding for an eternity.
mattyfezFull MemberPosted 4 years agoWhat a kerfuffle.
My prediction:
We’ll have a hung parliament.The next big kerfuffle will be that non of the factions can agree to anything to form a pseudo government.
What then?
Maybe the Queen will be forced to enforce a cross party emergency care taker interim government?
UK politics has descended into pathetic bickering and one-upmanship.
molgripsFree MemberPosted 4 years agoI’m going for Boris with +50.
Things will very rapidly fall apart, I predict another GE in 3 years amid recession and huge social problems. Then whatever centrist has replaced JC will walk home. Basically Blair all over again except without a war to **** things up hopefully.
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