2019 General Election

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  • 2019 General Election
  • nicko74
    Member

    I need to register to vote as I’m out of the UK. Where does my vote go/get counted? The last place I was registered in the UK?

    Exactly. You’ll need to confirm when you left the UK and how you want to vote (postal or proxy mainly)

    Question for the various experts here – how should I vote? I don’t want people to debate my views (they’re not perfect, but they’re mine) – just advice on which way to vote and why.
    If I had to rank my personal priorities they would be:
    – Stop Brexit/ at least keep the UK in the common market.
    – Kick out the Tories, and associated racist populists.
    – Prevent mass nationalisation and appropriation of listed companies, private schools etc
    – Avoid electing anti-semitic and/or racist populists to power, it’ll only encourage them.

    Logic would probably suggest Lib Dems – they’re not openly in favour of mass nationalisation, and they’re not the Tories. But they won’t win a majority, and there’s a real risk of splitting the anti-racist populist vote.
    The other option is Labour, but if they get a majority to start pushing through their more radical plans, the whole country’s going to hell in a handcart, with large companies fleeing, government debt rocketing (energy companies don’t come cheap), etc.

    So, what do you suggest and why?

    The MSM, eh?

    P-Jay
    Member

    Any NHS workers in the house?

    Seems the Gov are trying to impose Purdah regs on NHS workers. Some of my wife’s colleagues have been asked to remove some pretty innocent tweets about a recent wounds conference, completely unpolitical other than some references to increased need for services.

    tjagain
    Member

    NHS staff have to behave as professionals at all times. You must not do anything even in your time out of work to bring the profession into disrepute ( professionally registered staff ) My guess would be that this is just them being reminded of that Social media policy is quite tight.

    Perhaps with some over zealous manager adding to it / takin git too far. they can refuse expecially if they believe it is withing the social media policy

    for example ” the NHS needs more funding and staff” should be OK ” my unit is always shortstaffed” is not ( by my understanding)

    I’d be asking the person pushing this for why and ask to see the policy that allows the manager to ask for the tweets to be removed.

    tjagain
    Member

    We normally get a reminder about social media policy and making overt political statements around the time of any election. Not had one yet but I do remember getting one during the two referenda

    I need to register to vote as I’m out of the UK. Where does my vote go/get counted? The last place I was registered in the UK?

    Exactly. You’ll need to confirm when you left the UK and how you want to vote (postal or proxy mainly)

    Question for the various experts here – how should I vote? I don’t want people to debate my views (they’re not perfect, but they’re mine) – just advice on which way to vote and why.
    If I had to rank my personal priorities they would be:
    – Stop Brexit/ at least keep the UK in the common market.
    – Kick out the Tories, and associated racist populists.
    – Prevent mass nationalisation and appropriation of listed companies, private schools etc
    – Avoid electing anti-semitic and/or racist populists to power, it’ll only encourage them.

    Logic would probably suggest Lib Dems – they’re not openly in favour of mass nationalisation, and they’re not the Tories. But they won’t win a majority, and there’s a real risk of splitting the anti-racist populist vote.
    The other option is Labour, but if they get a majority to start pushing through their more radical plans, the whole country’s going to hell in a handcart, with large companies fleeing, government debt rocketing (energy companies don’t come cheap), etc.

    So, what do you suggest and why?

    You sound like you’re in the same boat as me. I guess it depends on your constituency: if the Lib Dems have a chance of winning the seat then you’re probably best off voting for them; if they’re too far behind to win then I’d say that any party that’s closest and isn’t UKIP or BP is going to be your only choice.

    JP

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    So, what do you suggest and why?

    Depends on your constituency

    If a Labour Tory marginal, then Labour, if lib dems or even green in with a shout them to for them

    realistically best we can hope for a Labour/lib dem coalition so whatever works

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    It’s a comparison between regions back in 2017 and currently.

    Yes… Labour’s actions since 2017 have turned away lots of voters. Especially as they took their votes as “a vote for Brexit” when all polling said that the opposite was the case; people who voted Labour overwhelming wanted Brexit stopped. No surprise there. BUT, the polls are comparing the 2017 Election Day with 2019 before the election campaign really gets going… Labour won a lot of people over during the 2017 campaign, and hopefully will do so again this time.

    If those polls above are right then all but a tiny few of us are f*****! And we’ll deserve it.

    Things can change, but this election will be about damage limitation for Labour, if they can get close to their 2017 seat count, they’ll be doing well. We are reliant on Labour bouncing in the polls back towards 2017 Election Day levels AND the other opposition parties taking far more Tory seats than they currently look to be heading for.

    Currently, Labour do not seem to understand what the game is… get enough MPs from all the other parties to block a Johnson government. SNP seem to really get it, from the way they are taking, as do those parties stepping aside in some England & Wales seats for parties they have little in common with other than stopping Brexit and Johnson.

    olddog
    Member

    Just catching up on the thread. The polling posted above which shows Tories with big majority is at odds with the betting sites. SkyBet have Tories at 321 with just worse than evens for a majority.

    I’ve no idea how all this would land but even the simple national Westminster voting intentions are all the place so any breakdown at constituency level is virtually impossible

    How odd that YouGov polls are so optimistic regarding the Tories and so pessimistic regarding Labour, it’s almost as if there is some motive behind the quality of their polling.

    Oh hang on, wasn’t YouGov started up by Stephan Shakespeare, former owner of ConservativeHome and Nadhim Zahawi (who needs no introduction really), slumlord and Tory?

    ctk
    Member

    You couldn’t make it up. Oh wait you can.

    Whatever these bad early polls for Labour in the last election worked in their favour, through the course of the campaign they closed the polls which put more pressure on the Tories.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    I was about to say the same ctk … I have no idea why YouGuv rigging their polling (they don’t, this is just blame the messenger syndrome) to show a Tory lead helps the Tories… it should help to get people involved in the opposition campaigns and get people out to vote as things swing away form the Tories as the campaign goes on. Hopefully it will also focus minds on stopping Johnson.

    I have no idea why YouGuv rigging their polling (they don’t, this is just blame the messenger syndrome) to show a Tory lead helps the Tories…

    Back-a-winner syndrome. Have you ever wondered why big football clubs acquire so many extra supporters from outside the local area? And why Trump’s perceived ‘success’ in business is so appealing to certain US voters?

    Also, if Labour are well behind in the polls, it doesn’t always galvanize supporters, for many it will de-motivate them – ‘what’s the point of even voting?’ etc.

    Premier Icon jezzep
    Subscriber

    Anybody just anybody but bullsh1tboris and I don’t care if I have to hold my nose but working in engineering and manufacturing has taught me these guys don’t give a toss about this sector.

    This is my only post on the subject this is a mtb group after all 😉

    JeZ

    tjagain
    Member

    On the idea that labour would not join a progressive or anti brexit / anti tory alliance

    Its very politically difficult for them to do so and Swinson was totally dishonest about the idea making demands that she knew would be impossible for labour. she just didn’t want them joining so she laid out preconditions that she knew were unacceptable to labour

    Compare Sturgeons reactions to Swinsons. Then decide who was being genuine and who was playing games

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    Sturgeon has been speaking very well about what might happen post election.

    Swinson has been working to try and increase the number of non-Tory MPs, even where those MPs are not from her own party.

    Corbyn has been working for a Labour majority or bust, leaving it ‘till after the election to address and deal with reality.

    tjagain
    Member

    Swinson deliberately ( IMO) made it impossible to have a pre election pact with labour

    Sturgeon ( about a pre election pact / joint action in parliament) said ( I paraphrase) ” I do not think much of Corbyn but I will do whatever I can to stop brexit so if that means working with Corbyn I will”. Swinson said. “I will not do any deal while corbyn is leader”.

    Thats the difference.

    After the Tories made cuts to education would you trust Gove and BoJo?

    Hell no.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    Yes TJ, Sturgeon has spoken very well about what should happen post election, the other opposition parties (other than Labour) have, despite huge policy and personality differences, managed to come to an electoral agreement to get a few more non-Tory MPs (hopefully). Labour is just throwing shit at the SNP and all the other opposition parties… and keep ruling out cooperation that we all know might be needed after an election, and haven’t worked towards the election of a single non Labour non Tory MP in a single seat. Greens, SNP, PC & LibDems are talking about, and dealing with, the reality of stopping Brexit and stopping Johnson. Labour are refighting the 2017 election, and hoping not to lose seats, while talking up, and only talking about, a majority Labour government that is just not going to happen.

    Premier Icon dazh
    Subscriber

    Labour are refighting the 2017 election, and hoping not to lose seats, while talking up, and only talking about, a majority Labour government that is just not going to happen.

    You want them to campaign to lose? The simple fact is that labour are the only party who can unseat the tories. The only way they can do that is with a positive campaign. The minute they start helping other parties, they guarantee that they lose.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    The simple fact is that labour are the only party who can unseat the tories.

    See, this is nonsense. There will not be a Labour majority this time, the only way to unseat the Tory government is to unseat Tory MPs everywhere it is remotely possible, which will require lots of parties winning seats off of them, not just the Labour Party. Ignoring this is the mistake Labour are making, and why a Tory majority is too likely for comfort. The SNP need to take seats off the Tories. The LibDems need to take seats off the Tories. PC & the Greens need to at least keep their seats, and ideally grab one or two more off of the Tories.

    tjagain
    Member

    Kelvin – the lib dems simply have not done so. They have placed conditions on any co operation with labour that are impossible for labour to agree. IMO this was done deliberately to attempt to give the lib dems the high moral ground. Well it ain’t fooled me

    The pact with the greens and PC is very one way only working in the lib dems favour and is also highly hypocritical as they will work with PC in wales but refused to work with SNP in Scotland because the SNP want independence. Well what do PC want?

    Also the position on referenda is hypocritical in supporting a second EU one but not a second scots one.

    tjagain
    Member

    For a tory majority the tores are going to have to make 30 gains or therabouts to make up for their lack of majority and the likely loses.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    Just to be clear, Labour policy is not ‘mass nationalisation’. Just nationalising a few essential services, like we have now e.g. health, police and fire service, which makes sense.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    Okay… simple question… why won’t Labour stand aside for any Green candidates? Greens have stood aside for Labour in some seats, and some other parties have stood aside for the Greens in other seats. Labour…?

    mattyfez
    Member

    Whilst I don’t agree with Swinsons tactics, and I don’t like Swinson in general anyway, you can’t put this all on the lib dems, corbyn is just as bad as her in this respect, they are both putting themselves before party and country.

    If the tories get back in, that’ll be on both of them for being totally pig headed.

    Premier Icon dissonance
    Subscriber

    why won’t Labour stand aside for any Green candidates?

    What seats, specifically, are you thinking off that it would make sense.
    Aside from Brighton Pavilion where is the Green party the best bet?

    I have no idea why YouGuv rigging their polling (they don’t, this is just blame the messenger syndrome)

    +1

    I’d guess these guys don’t sit down with a spreadsheet themsleves, they hire people in.

    So they sit in an interview and say “Before we employ you we need to know you’re willing to add X% onto our favoured party.”? In which case don’t all the guys who failed to get the job go straight to the press?

    Or do they not mention it at the interview but new hires get told on day 1, “you need to add X% onto our favoured party, we know this will make you look incompetent and harm your own future in the Polling so thanks” in which case how come none of them ever walk out then and there and go to the media? Or why don’t they (more likely) go to the media and cash in on a massive story when they change jobs?

    Like many conspiracy theories, it requires an implausible amount of cooperation from a lot of people.

    Moreover the political parties clearly trust the polls as the best estimates available – their campaign strategies prove that. If sootyandjim is aware of shenanigans why aren’t the people who rely on these polls for accurate data?

    Gotta love conspiracy theories.

    Premier Icon nickc
    Subscriber

    Oh hang on, wasn’t YouGov started up by Stephan Shakespeare

    Bloody hell, It’s a shit time when we’re only days into the campaign, and Labour supporters have already started on the “blame others” storylines to make themselves feel better

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    All the recent Yougov poll dismay and the aggregate tracker tells a different story…

    Bleak stuff: Moodys downgrades uk’s credit outlook.

    Moody’s said neither of the main political parties in next month’s election were likely to tackle high borrowing levels which Brexit had made even harder to fix

    The ratings agency said: “It would be optimistic to assume that the previously cohesive, predictable approach to legislation and policymaking in the UK will return once Brexit is no longer a contentious issue, however that is achieved.”

    https://news.sky.com/story/moodys-downgrades-uks-credit-outlook-after-brexit-paralysis-11857899

    Whoever wins, we’ll be overspending and badly governed. Joy.

    tjagain
    Member

    On the polling – its not about adding a % on its about the questions asked and how they weight the responses. certain pollsters always predict higher tory votes than others

    its not about adding a % on its about the questions asked

    Ok, second version of my post as follows:

    I’d guess these guys don’t sit down with a spreadsheet themsleves, they hire people in.

    So they sit in an interview and say “Before we employ you we need to know you’re willing to choose questions with bias so we get our predictions wrong in favour of our favoured party.”? In which case don’t all the guys who failed to get the job go straight to the press?

    Or do they not mention it at the interview but new hires get told on day 1, “Choose questions with bias so we get our predictions wrong in favour of our favoured party, we know this will make you look incompetent and harm your own future in the Polling industry so thanks” in which case how come none of them ever walk out then and there and go to the media? Or why don’t they (more likely) go to the media and cash in on a massive story when they change jobs?

    Like many conspiracy theories, it requires an implausible amount of cooperation from a lot of people.

    Moreover the political parties clearly trust the polls as the best estimates available – their campaign strategies prove that. If sootyandjim is aware of shenanigans why aren’t the people who rely on these polls for accurate data?

    Gotta love conspiracy theories.

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Subscriber

    kelvin

    Subscriber

    Okay… simple question… why won’t Labour stand aside for any Green candidates? Greens have stood aside for Labour in some seats, and some other parties have stood aside for the Greens in other seats. Labour…?

    The greens got an average of 2.2% in seats they stood in last time. First 3 examples I looked at the Lib Dems have stood aside for the greens in Bury St Edmonds- where they took 5.7% of the vote last time, in Brighton Pavillion where they didn’t run at all last time but took 2.8% in 2015, and in the Isle of Wight where they took 3.7%. So what has it actually cost either party to stand aside?

    I don’t know of any seats where you get any sort of equivalence for Labour and the Greens. Can you suggest any? The greens lost their deposits in all but 9 seats last time, and unless I’ve missed on Brighton Pavillion is the only seat they really have any chance this time.

    nicko74
    Member

    On the polling – its not about adding a % on its about the questions asked and how they weight the responses. certain pollsters always predict higher tory votes than others

    As previously discussed, polling in FPTP systems is more art than science – certain demographic groups are tough to get data on, for example. As a result, every polling company has to apply its own secret sauce to the raw figures to arrive at a best estimate of the election result. Different companies have different secret sauces, basically, applying different weights, quotas etc.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    I’ve missed on Brighton Pavillion is the only seat they really have any chance this time.

    Are Labour standing a candidate there, risking the Conservatives gaining a seat?

    See, here’s the thing, there are lots more seats where the Greens (or other opposition candidates) could step aside to help Labour stop the seat going to Johnson’s party, and they probably would, if Labour would just throw them a bone and stand aside in one or two seats. It is an arrangement that would overwhelming help Labour far more than the Greens, and keep a few more Tory MPs out of the commons. But Labour won’t.

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Subscriber

    kelvin

    Subscriber

    Are Labour standing a candidate there, risking the Conservatives gaining a seat?

    No, the Greens took 52% of the vote there in 2017 and 41% in 2015- the Tories with about 20%. Their wildest hope is to turn their distant third into a distant second- which is exactly what you’re asking Labour to give them without a fight.

    So sure, they could make a pointless empty gesture. Would anyone be impressed? What would that “bone” be worth to the Greens? Nothing- so ask yourself why would it earn their support elsewhere? And if that support can be won with a pointless gesture, why withhold it at all? The only people to actually gain a thing would be the Tories and the only people to lose would be Labour themselves.

    All due respect but I think you’ve been suckered in by the Lib Dem/Green deckchair moving policy. And I don’t think you’d be so easily impressed with the same empty gestures from Labour.

    Labour and the Lib Dems desperately need to be working together, and both need to be working with the SNP… But neither have any interest in doing any of these things.

    mattyfez
    Member

    See, here’s the thing, there are lots more seats where the Greens (or other opposition candidates) could step aside to help Labour stop the seat going to Johnson’s party, and they probably would, if Labour would just throw them a bone and stand aside in one or two seats. It is an arrangement that would overwhelming help Labour far more than the Greens, and keep a few more Tory MPs out of the commons. But Labour won’t.

    Absolutely this.

    Labour are far too arrogant for thier own good, just look at posts from Dazh and Tj for that.

    Until labour start being progressive and cooperative, they are stuffed.

    The recent polls show we’ll still have a hung parliament so someone’s going to have to work with someone.

    Not a formal coalition per se, but an agreement on certain topics like brexit.

    Sooner or later the children in government are going to have to learn how to share thier toys.
    Most children learn this by the age of 3.

    tjagain
    Member

    Labour would have done it indeed started the process. Swinson put demands on them that she must have known they could not and would not meet.

    Now I have said for ages and indeed on this thread that I want a progressive alliance for one election on a platform of second referendum and constitutional reform. So I personally am in favour of it.

    Swinson simply wanted it to look like she wanted it but she knows any co operation with labour would cost her in her drive for tory seats. So she deliberately sabotaged any chance of getting co operation with labour

    Note also Swinson categorically ruled out any deal with the SNP because they are nationalists but will work with PC even tho they are nationalists.

    Premier Icon dazh
    Subscriber

    Labour are far too arrogant for thier own good, just look at posts from Dazh and Tj for that.

    ?

    I’ll repeat my question above. Do you think labour should campaign to lose? Because by planning for a hung parliament and making deals in advance of one does exactly that.

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