• This topic has 6,282 replies, 176 voices, and was last updated 4 years ago by kelvin.
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  • 2019 General Election
  • ctk
    Free Member

    “one of the most extraordinary few minutes of radio I’ve ever heard” LOLZ this person clearly doesn’t listen to the radio much.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Fair enough Kelvin. Even so given that the SNP and labour will always vote down a tory government the tories could not run a minority government if between snp and labour they have a majority. they would not be able to get a queens speech thru

    kelvin
    Full Member

    So who would form a government? I really don’t know… but if there’s a majority against the Tories forming a government, but no majority for Labour forming a government… what happens? More quick elections? How many?

    dazh
    Full Member

    A two horse race. The lib dems only need a 45% swing to win.

    cromolyolly
    Free Member

    So who would form a government?

    Dunno but I hear Call-me-Dave is out campaigning. Is he confused, stuck in a time warp or is it signs of Stranger Things to come from the Tories?

    tjagain
    Full Member

    If Snp and labour had a majority between them but couldn’t agree even an S&C deal? Hypotheticals so only my best guess
    largest party attempts to form a government first. If they get a queens speech past then its them ( assume that the tories) if not then the second largest party tries ( labour) SNP abstain, queens speech goes thru – its labour. the SNP would be very unlikely to vote down a labour government. If labour cannot get a QS thru even with SNP abstaining its back to the polls

    AlexSimon
    Full Member

    Those facebook ad spending figures are interesting when you look at the government spend just before the election kicked off.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Again Dazh, a huge swing needed if looking at 2017… but that’s ignoring the 2019 votes. I’m inclined to use 2017 to look at what is most likely to happen… but anyone running a campaign for a LibDem candidate will be trying to use 2019 votes to convince people to go with them… to do otherwise would be bonkers. 2015&2017 has LibDems all but dead… 2019 votes have them beating Labour and the Conservatives all over the country (I can’t see that being repeated, but can see why LibDem activists need to cling to that and use it in their campaigning).

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Today was the day the wanna-be chancellors clashed (if only in the media, rather than face to face) – and it has to be said – it’s Labour completely dominating the agenda now. The Conservatives are just offering a less joined up, less green, less clearly costed and funded version of what Labour are proposing. Anyone see it differently…?

    dazh
    Full Member

    a huge swing needed if looking at 2017

    Comparisons with 2017 are the only ones that are valid as it’s the last time the seat, possibly with the same candidates was contested. It’s just stupid, dishonest and deliberately misleading to do otherwise. Anyway I’m convinced it will back fire. Voters don’t like being taken for fools, and that seems to be the Lib Dem primary strategy in this election. I’ve been amazed at the tory campaign so far for it’s chaos but at least they are just being disorganised, the lib dems seem to have deliberately chosen this approach. Swinson will be gone in a few weeks, either as a result of this terrible campaign, or losing her seat, or even both.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Comparisons with 2017 are the only ones that are valid

    It’s the best measure in many seats, in my opinion, but it completely ignores the way support for the parties have changed since 2017… why would the LibDems use 2017 as their starting point for campaigning, when they have had a big upturn in support recently?

    Why are the “ignore 2019” shouts so loud from some people, I wonder…

    https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

    AD
    Full Member

    dazh – superb job with the bus poster – I like that!
    But I think you’re in danger in becoming a bit obsessive about Swinson!!! I cannot abide magic grandpa but I dislike Boris more so I’m going down the route of voting labour to stop the tories (admittedly helped by fact we have a good local labour mp).
    If you were in a Lib Dem/Tory marginal would you seriously not vote Lib Dem?

    dazh
    Full Member

    but it completely ignores the way support for the parties have changed since 2017

    You know as well as I, and along with the vast majority of voters that what happens in a euro election (with a tiny turnout) is pretty much irrelevant to a general election, and this has been proven many times over. Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats (as I think I’ll call them from now on cos I still find it funny) are even going one step further, using arbitrary council ward elections which had 500 voters and scaling those up to constituency level. It’s complete bullshit, and everyone knows it is, which is why it’s going to backfire.

    dazh – superb job with the bus poster – I like that!

    I should say I did’t produce it, it was a random find on twitter…

    https://twitter.com/greenthelesbian/status/1192177423879565313?s=20

    kelvin
    Full Member

    And what about the polls Dazh? LibDem support in 2019 is not where it was in 2017, is it? So their campaigns are not going to be based on their 2017 results, are they? It would make no sense for them whatsoever. Labour might be happy to think they are going to repeat 2017 (and I hope they do, or better still do even better) but the truth is that there are lots of seats where LibDems can get support from previously Tory voters and could go from third to first if others also support them… with the alternative being another Tory hold… and I hope they work their arses off trying to do so and take a fair few seats off of Johnson.

    dazh
    Full Member

    But I think you’re in danger in becoming a bit obsessive about Swinson!!!

    In danger of becoming obsessed? I think I’m past that point! 🙂

    Honestly though, it’s a result of her being perhaps the most disingenuous, inauthentic, narcissistic and plain dishonest politician I think I’ve ever seen. It’s like she’s competing with Johnson to be the most reviled politician in the country. The difference is that I think Swinson actually believes in her bullshit whereas for Johnson it’s just a means to an end.

    And yes, I would vote lib dem in a tory/lib dem marginal without even thinking about it. Fortunately I don’t have to though.

    And what about the polls Dazh?

    Which ones? The ones the lib dems are making up and putting false attributions on? Or the ones that show them consistently losing support over recent weeks/months?

    kelvin
    Full Member

    A reminder that Cameron only got his majority by taking seats off the LibDems, after a campaign where Labour seemed obsessive about condemning the LibDems, rather than focussing on the Tories.

    Oh, that and the Tories scaring people about the SNP having the whip hand over a minority Labour government. I expect this one to come back again in a few weeks time, depressingly… not sure it’ll work as well this time though.

    ctk
    Free Member

    Anyone heard the clip of Javid saying “and…we…will…borrow…more…money” ? Very strange tone/timing reminds me of TM and her low serious voice.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Lib dem support in the polls is not that far from 2017 is it? a lot closer than the euro elections.

    I agree it will backfire badly the misleading information. while it might fool a few it will turn off a lot.

    scotroutes
    Full Member

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Briliant Scotroutes

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    Liberal Democrats have made good gains in council by-elections.

    Yes we know that’s different to a GE or electing MEPs, but it’s hard, nieve even to ignore that.

    Like it or not this GE is all about Brexit, as were recent by-elections.

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    Like it or not this GE is all about Brexit, as were recent by-elections.

    This. Being the only revoke party is a terrific USP in this election and you only need to look at this thread for the evidence of how spooked the other parties are.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    That really is not how I see it. I see the lib dems blundering about and alienating support by Swinsons attitude. the fake polling will put a lot of folk off. the folk that the lib dems need are those who think about politics and to them the fake poll charts are very offputting

    As I said earlier – my parents are lib dem activists in Swinsons constituency who have always campaigned for her in the past but they are so disgusted with where she is taking the party they no longer are going to do so.

    Heres a bet ( think up a comedy forfeit) if you want. the lib dems will end up with no more than 30 seats. I’ll be happy if the get a lot more because that likely means no tory majority unless Swinson jumps into bed with them again but given how badly her election campaign is going and how poorly the lib dems are poling 30 seats is a stretch.

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    That really is not how I see it.

    You’re starting to sound a bit like a zealot dude.

    dazh
    Full Member

    You’re starting to sound a bit like a zealot dude.

    What the hell is zealous about saying you disagree with someone? And even if it is, what would be wrong with that? There’s nothing wrong with having strong firmly held opinions and defending them. I think you’re confusing having firmly held beliefs with extremism.

    And just to agree with TJ, I think this election could be disastrous for the lib dems, possibly even approaching 2015. It’ll be tragic if that’s the case, because until Clegg sold his soul they were always the sensible alternative option to the mudslinging instincts of the two big parties, and they were doing fairly well at recovering that position under Cable. I have no idea why Swinson has chosen to jump on the fake news/alternative facts Trumpian bandwagon along with Johnson, but it’s a huge mistake.

    dazh
    Full Member

    Oh dear….

    kimbers
    Full Member

    On top of the detail , he is not

    But at least he’s actually speaking to some people, it’s just been photo ops and bussed in crowds in empty warehouses so far- was looking like Mays 2017 GE campaign

    cromolyolly
    Free Member

    Like it or not this GE is all about Brexit, as were recent by-elections

    It’s not clear that it is. If it were, you’d expect to see much clearer division. Given that the referendum was basically 50-50 and there’s been a bit of movement back and forth since, why aren’t the hard leave/remain parties neck and neck with the mushy middle trailing behind?

    The polls seem to show that people’s #1 concern is Brexit. While also simultaneously being the NHS, the economy, immigration, ending the drag of austerity, etc.

    I don’t think voters have coalesced around an issue yet, which may be why the main parties are flailing around trying to find something that voters will latch onto. If and when they do, I think you’ll see the numbers change and firm up.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    It’s not onto policy yet

    At the moment we’re at the stage where it’s a battle over who’s prospective candidates have the dodgiest social media history

    In the red corner we have the anti Israel brigade in the blue corner it’s team rape apologists

    Re the video of drunk uncle Bozo up there^^^ I bet Cummings has his aides on strict orders now to stop him drinking & the efforts to keep him away from the public will increase too

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    What the hell is zealous about saying you disagree with someone? And even if it is, what would be wrong with that?

    The feverish mud slinging at the lib dems whilst conveniently ignoring labour’s refusal to have a stance for remain or leave or work with the remain alliance.

    Every party should be focused on keeping the tories out. Everything else is a secondary priority.

    stevextc
    Free Member

    kimbers

    It’s not onto policy yet

    At the moment we’re at the stage where it’s a battle over who’s prospective candidates have the dodgiest social media history

    In the red corner we have the anti Israel brigade in the blue corner it’s team rape apologists

    Re the video of drunk uncle Bozo up there^^^ I bet Cummings has his aides on strict orders now to stop him drinking & the efforts to keep him away from the public will increase too

    It’s basically as I said either on this thread or the other … a war on banned subjects.
    It’s not called anti-Isreal it’s labelled anti-semetic… quite possibly the most misleading term ever given the both genetic evidence and religious beliefs of both sides on Abraham, Sarah and Haggar!

    Pick your terrorist and pick your freedom fighter according to which way the wind is blowing…

    That said I’d love a honest answer from Rees-Mogg on if he thinks the type of people caught in the fire should be allowed to breed…

    sobriety
    Free Member

    Clearly they should, like rabbits, it makes staffing the workhouse easier when there’s competition for the gruel.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    whilst conveniently ignoring labour’s refusal to have a stance for remain or leave

    Still don’t see why this is a problem. 2nd ref stance is equally as plausible as those two, and much more sensible IMO given the political situation.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    So Johnson telling Northern Ireland how good his deal is for them because they get free movement and access to the single market!

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    Still don’t see why this is a problem. 2nd ref stance is equally as plausible as those two, and much more sensible IMO given the political situation.

    Yes, however though, they’d need to win majority which is unlikely. I can’t see why they won’t work with the remain aliance to further weaken the tories, the alliance wouldn’t dilute the labour vote in key tory labour marginals in return and vice verssa, it’s a complete no brainer, sureley?

    stevextc
    Free Member

    sobreity

    Clearly they should, like rabbits, it makes staffing the workhouse easier when there’s competition for the gruel.

    I quite honestly would love to know…..
    My feeling is he thinks of the rest of us more like farm animals that should be selectively bred when required and sold or disguarded when not.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    it’s a complete no brainer, sureley?

    Dunno it’s complex. With an alliance you’re effectively saying ‘our best attribute is that we’re not them’ which isn’t exactly positive campaigning.

    dazh
    Full Member

    Every party should be focused on keeping the tories out.

    Labour are 100% focused on beating the tories in the hundreds of seats where they are the clear challenger. The lib dems so far have spent all their time pretending that they are the challengers despite being 10s of thousands of votes behind labour in many of these constituencies. If you’re looking for parties who aren’t pulling their weight in the effort to beat the tories, it’s pretty obvious who they are.

    nickc
    Full Member

    So Johnson telling Northern Ireland how good his deal is for them

    It does appear on the face of it, that he doesn’t understand his own negotiated deal… Can’t say I’m massively surprised by the speech though, this is just Johnson telling the people around him what they want to hear. Standard Boris.

    nickc
    Full Member

    The lib dems so far have spent all their time pretending that they are the challengers despite being 10s of thousands of votes behind

    To be fair to the Lib Dems dazh, this is how elections work…You try to persuade people to vote for you.

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