Who has said this?

Various politicans according to Swinson.

leaders often change…

Not very often and irrelevant here. The questionmark is specifically around Swinsons claims.
Maybe she did then carry on to say “and obviously this would be a tad odd and this is how I would solve it” but given the dishonest advertising so far I sort of doubt it.

Swinson on switching parties

Ian austin

Probably hoping for a Lordship on top of the job he got from the tories.

Todays game:
Guess which outbuilding Johnson will be hiding in when it comes to his Scotland visit and which candidate will get caught out. Morley seems to be an early candidate.
Or maybe how many times Johnson will lie today.

A visit to Scotland today from Johnson

Gaffes will be coming for sure. Moray is an interesting litmus test for the tories as its probably the most eurosceptic part of Scotland and Davidson made a big play for it ( and was successful) with a position of Unionism and control of the fishing grounds.

its now obvious that whatever happens over brexit that the UK will not be able to exclude european fishing boats from UK waters unless we have no deal at all of any sort.

I think Johnson will be whisked in and out and no member of the public will be allowed anywhere near him but I bet he still says something very patronising that can be seized by the nationalists.

His problem in Scotland is he has no understanding of the difference in politics north of the border

Zahawai was doing the full media tour yesterday – his main point seemed to boil down to “vote Conservative to start reversing Conservative cuts” – very much trying to be the “change” proposition, despite trying to hold on to power.

I think the Conservative party are going to get all excited about grabbing a few “Northern” seats off of Labour, but then lose just as many “up here” to them, because I think tactical voting will make a big difference in a few areas. Really hope the Greens can take at least one more seat, and the LibDems some more as well, in Wales and the South West perhaps. PC & SNP should increase their seat share as well in their countries.

So… what happens in the rest of England… where most of the seats are, and most of the voters are? My fear is Conservatives will win even more rural(ish) seats by pushing on the Brexit button as hard as possible, and it’s down to the metro seats… which could go either way, but I suspect votes will split between Labour and the LibDems and result in Conservative wins.

No overall majority for anyone. Johnson will be gone next year, he was chosen as a “winner” and for no other reason, but his replacement will find some way of getting us out of the EU before June next year, with the support of Labour MPs, if not the “party”. Another election will follow, and that’ll be just as close. Corbyn will fight that one as well… why? Because his successor isn’t lined up yet… there are lots of good candidates to be Labour leader ready to go, but none will continue the project loyally enough. There is one candidate who fits the bill, but she’s so clearly not up to the job, that Corbyn will stay ‘till after the next election in 2020/21.

I think the Conservative party are going to get all excited about grabbing a few “Northern” seats off of Labour, but then lose just as many “up here” to them

Some pretty detailed analysis on the Guardian Podcast that reckons it will be very difficult for the Blue party to pick up ‘Northern’ seats, their correspondent reckoned the numbers just aren’t there. Sounded plausible to me.

SNP will still be the third largest. Lib dems will make very few gains

I agree with that TJ. The split in the anti-Tory vote will limit LibDem (and Labour gains) in seats in the cities where the Tory vote drops.

Agree with above entirely. Wouldn’t be surprised if Tories get a majority.

Swinson will lose her seat

In 73.13% remain constituency?

There’s not much predictable in this election but if there was a safe prediction it would be that the sole revoke party will win a remain seat when the party machine will be chucking activists at it.

if there was a safe prediction

SNP might sneak it.

Wouldn’t be surprised if Tories get a majority.

I’ll be surprised if they don’t. The best result I can realistically hope for this election is Conservatives being the largest party, but not being able to govern. A majority is still very likely at this stage. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. It’ll take a lot of tactical voting and nose holding to get stop Johnson now though.

The tories trouble is they have lost all the brains and sensible people! That and the fact checking is going to cost them dear along with the new media. For example I never watch sky news – but got that clip of Cleverly being empty chaired from facebook. ( I know – echo chamber!)

Seeing the BBC fact checking every tory statement is great and will cost them a lot. Yes their lies will resonate with their base but no longer will they be able to put their lies out unchallenged as happened in the past. Its no longer he said / she said Added to this is “and the truth is”

JOhnson being a proven liar plays very badly with the electorate at large. Corbyn has a significant advantage here

In 73.13% remain constituency?

In Scotland.

Most people don’t bother viewing fact check articles

A quick scan of the front pages at the supermarket or a scroll through what their social media feed tells them to be angry about

remember the SNP won it time before last. Its a very volatile seat and the SNP will chuck the kitchen sink at it. I know lib dem activists in her seat who previously have been committed campaigners who are no longer going to campaign for her they are so annoyed by her tactics.

One of the things that characterise the scottish political scene ( as a huge generality) is that bullshitters are less tolerated and Swinson has been bullshitting hugely. this gives the SNP easy attack lines.

The SNP stand to make gains in Scotland and Swinson is going to be doing a national campaign not concentrating on her seat. Swinson won last time because of the rise in the Tory vote. That tory vote will collapse this time around

She also ran a very committed local campaign with a huge amount of input from the party. thats going to be much harder this time for her due to being the leader and having to be in london for media appearances

I wouldn’t underestimate Tories , labour made big gains last to round but May was woeful at the kind of populism Johnson knows & much of the shine has come off Corbyn.

Ian Austin, labour MP telling people it would be better to vote for Johnson on R4 this morning was remarkable even coming from a well known corbynosceptic

Agreed – if Mansfield went last time – the benchmark will be whether it goes back to Labour or BXP.

Ian Austin is a desperate fruit-loop. There are no grounds or logic for his comment. He’s another anti-Corbyn mouth piece that mainly resorts to AS for all his arguments.

Hard Brexiteer at all costs.

Looks like Greens are making way for LibDem candidates in London, and Labour candidates up here. We need more of this. LibDem reciprocating in a number of seats. If Labour prioritised the removal of Tory MPs and did the same, we might replace a few Tory MPs with Green ones… wouldn’t that be welcome…?

Most people don’t bother viewing fact check articles

A quick scan of the front pages at the supermarket or a scroll through what their social media feed tells them to be angry about

It goes way beyond that, so many people don’t even care when it’s an OBVIOUS lie they know isn’t true. It’s not like most people need fullfact.org to check if the IOM is in the EU is it?

The Brexit/Boris/Farge style is like a pulpit telling parables… stories that might be sort of true or might partly be true if you change the places and names etc.

so many people don’t even care when it’s an OBVIOUS lie they know isn’t true.

Lies are often overselling. eg: Labour are saying they’re going borrow and spend 150bn. Leaving aside if that wise it’s not possible because you simply couldn’t commission the projects fast enough. But the message that cuts through is “Labour are going to borrow and spend overwhelmingly more than all the other parties.”.

It’s widely used Trump (build a wall), Boris (die in a ditch), Leave campaign (350m).

The promise is a lie, the message cuts though and is distributed far more widely if your opponents pick you up on the lie.

lib Dems will stand down on Isle of Wight for greens

That one was already worked out, it’s the other seats that are being announced today. And, yes, this is mostly Tory seats where there is no way of defeating the Conservative Party without some form of electoral alliance… that is sort of the point… to try and remove Tory MPs who will otherwise be walking it. If Labour got involved, Johnson’s majority would be looking much harder for him to get.

just chucking them a bone

Maybe so. But as I said a few pages ago, Labour would only need to throw the other opposition parties a bone or two and they’d do very well from them standing aside in some key seats in return.