2019 General Election

Viewing 40 posts - 681 through 720 (of 6,291 total)
  • 2019 General Election
  • Premier Icon somafunk
    Subscriber

    Apparently trump says he has a magic wand, Eddie Mair on LBC is currently ripping the piss out of trumps statements. 😀

    The underlying problems of pre-election polling have always been there. The most significant one is FPTP as a voting system –

    All true points you make. I would say though that until recent years pollsters were pretty good at adjusting for factors like voting efficiency and so on and were reasonably good most of the time at making the right call. Recent years have seen them get it completely wrong, so something else is going on. The company I mentioned that I was reading about had got it right were the others have got it wrong so they are capturing something that others aren’t.

    I suspect the Tory vote will be split by BP and they will win considerably fewer seats than the current polls suggest.

    JP

    Premier Icon salad_dodger
    Subscriber

    I reckon the BP will only field candidates in Labour strongholds and won’t contest anywhere that might result in a tory not getting/keeping their seat. Farage will be rewarded with a seat in the House of Lords as a thank you from Johnson. Drain the swamp indeed…

    I reckon the BP will only field candidates in Labour strongholds and won’t contest anywhere that might result in a tory not getting/keeping their seat. Farage will be rewarded with a seat in the House of Lords as a thank you from Johnson. Drain the swamp indeed…

    I don’t believe that’s the plan.

    JP

    ctk
    Member

    Hope you are correct.

    dannyh
    Member

    If needs be (as the tactical voting sites seem to suggest they do), I will hold my nose and vote for that ineffectual, dithering, closet-brexiteer, allotment dwelling plum Corbyn. But grudgingly and only because it is the best thing to do to demonstrate an anti-Johnson, anti-Brexit vote in my constituency. Basically I will vote how Gina Miller says is best to stop, stall or soften the ridiculous bollocks that is Brexit.

    Listening to the radio on the way home, they nearly joined up the dots when talking about Leave voting Labour constituencies. They talked about the convergence of Nationalist sentiment with Socialist sentiment in those areas. Nationalist-Socialist, eh? Bit of a mouthful, that. If only there was some neat and snappy abbreviation that could catch on…..

    Premier Icon dazh
    Subscriber

    Nationalist-Socialist, eh? Bit of a mouthful, that. If only there was some neat and snappy abbreviation that could catch on…..

    Congrats. You’re the second person on here recently to compare the labour party to the nazis. And here I was thinking the other one was uniquely stupid.

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    They do love their authoritarianism though, those lefties.

    And they don’t seem to like our Jewish friends very much

    On a practical level they’ve thrown away our neighbouring constituency, Bury South (Manchester’s kosher moat), always a rock solid labour seat, because of their complete failure to engage with the antisemitism issue properly

    dannyh
    Member

    Congrats. You’re the second person on here recently to compare the labour party to the nazis. And here I was thinking the other one was uniquely stupid.

    Nope. I’m openly suggesting that a fair few ‘confused’ Labour voters who voted leave are basically erring towards National Socialism. What else would you call it when people basically want all the benefits of socialism but want to deny it to other people on the basis of nationality or dare I say it, race?

    I can’t really compare the Labour Party to anything my dear. How can I when even they don’t know what they are?

    In any case, I will probably vote Labour as it is my most effective way of registering an anti-Johnson, anti-Brexit vote, which is what you keep professing (usually after the mask has accidentally slipped a bit) to want. The trouble with you is that you won’t take ‘yes’ for an answer. Bit like our ERG friends.

    <Rubs chin whilst wondering>

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    They do love their authoritarianism though, those lefties.

    And they don’t seem to like our Jewish friends very much

    Why tarnish a few specific people when you can tarnish whole swathes of the electorate?

    dannyh
    Member

    They do love their authoritarianism though, those lefties.

    And they don’t seem to like our Jewish friends very much

    To be fair, though, the USSR wasn’t exactly pro-Jewish either and they liked their authoritarianism there too. There you go, a bit of balance.

    In any case, I will probably vote Labour as that is the most effective counter to Tory-driven Brexit nonsense. The fact that I will do so holding my nose should make daz happy, if he isn’t a pro-Brexit shill*, that is.

    *He is.

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    On a practical level they’ve thrown away our neighbouring constituency, Bury South (Manchester’s kosher moat), always a rock solid labour seat, because of their complete failure to engage with the antisemitism issue properly

    Nowt to do with that particular MP having allegedly rock solid hands around women?

    Did you gloss over that and move straight to anti-semitism?

    They do love their authoritarianism though, those lefties.

    And they don’t seem to like our Jewish friends very much

    Why tarnish a few specific people when you can tarnish whole swathes of the electorate?

    Not true, though. There is a creeping move towards authoritarianism on the left. You can witness it in action on this forum, where there are frequent calls by the more left leaning members for all sorts of things to be banned.

    Labour’s proposed policy of seizing private property doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence in them.

    JP

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    There is a creeping move towards authoritarianism on the left. You can witness it in action on this forum, where there are frequent calls by the more left leaning members for all sorts of things to be banned.

    You must have many sound examples lined up?

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    I don’t even know why you’re referring to ‘the electorate’

    The fact of the matter is that the Labour Party has been, at best, disinterested in the whole issue of antisemitism.

    The reality of that is that it has thrown away what was a rock solid labour seat. You can look for excuses as to why, but it comes down to antisemitism in the Labour Party which isn’t seriously addressed

    But apparently that’s all fine because there isn’t a problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party.

    Carry on excusing that if you like

    *sits back and awaits ‘but, but, but… the Tory’s are islamophobic reply*

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    To be fair, though, the USSR wasn’t exactly pro-Jewish either and they liked their authoritarianism there too. There you go, a bit of balance.

    You find comparing aged totalitarian states broadly similar to a few lefties?

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    I don’t even know why you’re referring to ‘the electorate’

    You said lefties. I presume a good chunk of the electorate are lefties?

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    The reality of that is that it has thrown away what was a rock solid labour seat

    As opposed to that particular MP who quit after sexual allegations and then started getting angry at Corbyn over anti-semitism ?

    Rock solid…

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    Like I said…. excuse that if you like…

    Labour’s proposed policy of seizing private property doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence in them.

    This is the thing that will do them in. Labour have some decent policies, a national bank/power/transport supplier etc. would be reasonable fodder for most people.

    Then they trot out ‘ban public schools’ and the like and suddenly their swing voters (and they are going to need a lot of them) re just going to say thank you and good night, probably vote LD which just dilutes the anti-Tory vote and, voila, Tory back in power.

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    Then they trot out ‘ban public schools’ and the like and suddenly their swing voters (and they are going to need a lot of them) re just going to say thank you and good night, probably vote LD which just dilutes the anti-Tory vote and, voila, Tory back in power.

    I say this with a leftie partner working at an Independent school…

    They’re not banning them but integrating them into the state system. Again it’s the tabs they make these statements.

    So yeah feel free to dig below the headline.

    (Word is they won’t necessarily push that particular policy through, particularly how you phrased it.)

    rone

    Subscriber

    There is a creeping move towards authoritarianism on the left. You can witness it in action on this forum, where there are frequent calls by the more left leaning members for all sorts of things to be banned.

    You must have many sound examples lined up?

    Wow – you really can’t see it, can you?

    I had an elderly relative (long dead now) who once argued until he was blue in the face that it wasn’t high tide, despite the fact that he lived so close to the harbour that high tide was clearly visible at that moment just by looking out the window.

    So, please, continue in your dreamworld of Corbyn as the great leader, Labour having no issues with antisemitism, and certain electoral victory for them being only a few weeks away. I’m sure that nothing I or anyone else on here say will lure you into the real world.

    JP

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    Wow – you really can’t see it, can you?

    There are all sorts of opinions and things I don’t agree with on here but I don’t see a ‘leftie’ based clique demanding its authority.

    Again there must be powerful examples as referred to on here?

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    S

    o, please, continue in your dreamworld of Corbyn as the great leader, Labour having no issues with antisemitism, and certain electoral victory for them being only a few weeks away. I’m sure that nothing I or anyone else on here say will lure you into the real world.

    For sure, let’s put words into each others mouths and we can certainly construct an argument then.

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    What’s it like, being you?

    What’s it like, being you?

    New tactic from you Binners? Going the ‘complete hypocrite’ route?

    Makes a change from you building straw men and waffling on about 6th Formers.

    Bin bins Christmas number one. Let’s make this year the one boyz!

    Premier Icon Rusty Spanner
    Subscriber

    You’re spot on about Bury South. Sadly.
    Mates, lifelong Labour voters in Prestwich are quite clear that they can’t vote for him.
    I can see their point.

    The way antisemitism has been handled is the reason I’m not a member anymore. (Again. I resigned after the Iraq debacle, before joining again 🙂).

    Again, I’m not delighted by some of JC’s fellow travellers, but all the centerists have done is sit back and throw shit from the sidelines, instead of actually campaigning and getting involved.

    I do like the policies that have emerged though.

    So again, I’ll vote Labour. I doubt the Lib Dem’s will get a look in round here, despite them doing very good things the last time they were in power.
    Swinson strikes me as even less sincere than Nick Clegg and even more willing to sell her soul for a place at the trough.

    Premier Icon Cougar
    Subscriber

    You can witness it in action on this forum, where there are frequent calls by the more left leaning members for all sorts of things to be banned.

    Wow – you really can’t see it, can you?

    I don’t believe that that really gets to the nub of rone’s question. Who “on this very forum” is calling for what to be banned now?

    Premier Icon rone
    Subscriber

    What’s it like, being you?

    No hair, bad back and indigestion.

    Premier Icon dazh
    Subscriber

    So campaign review day 1:

    Corbyn makes a speech which is heavily reported in the media for it’s anti-establishment theme and introduces a catchy slogan (Not For Sale!) which could become a major campaign rallying point. Then as if arranged in advance, Trump goes on the radio to slag him off.

    Boris gets chased out of a hospital in Cambridge by angry staff and patients.

    I’ll think that might be one nil to Corbyn.

    I’ll think that might be one nil to Corbyn.

    Depends if you think they started level on points.

    They said on Brexit cast (the podcast, not the TV show) yesterday that the BP might only fight 20 seats. If so I’m not surprised, splitting the leave vote was never a good idea from a Brexiteer POV.

    Something I can actually add insight to!

    The underlying problems of pre-election polling have always been there. The most significant one is FPTP as a voting system – what this means is that every seat is a separate election, and what happens in Mytown doesn’t affect the result in Yourtown.

    For polling, proportional representation is easy: if 35% of Brits vote Tory, Tories will get something related to 35% of seats. You then pick a sample of 2,000 people across the country to survey, controlling for things like age, gender, socio-economics, do some analysis, and have an answer: Tories will win 35% of seats.

    FPTP is much more difficult, because to do it right, you have to survey 2,000 people in EACH SEAT, controlling for age, gender etc. Which is basically impossible. Lord Ashcroft has tried, but his sample sizes are too small, and his results no better than the rest.
    In the past, polling firms could cover this up by applying various rules of thumb, like landowners vote Tory, young people are more labour-leaning, etc. Politics now has fragmented to such an extent that the Tories aren’t “for those with money”, and Labour isn’t “for those who want redistribution”, but instead candidate personality is a huge factor, and views on Brexit, large-scale renationalisation, racism, anti-Semitism etc all play a part. And you just can’t model that across 400 individual seats.

    The best polling companies can do is say “we were right, 35% of people voted Tory!!” – and you then point out “yeah, but that bears no relation to the fact that Lib Dems and Greens now have a majority in parliament, you cretins”.

    Thanks, 100pc confirms my existing predudice which is always nice. 🙂

    Yes and previously you could make assumptions about how voter tendency would translate to particular seats – however Brexit has totally blown that all up – not just changing party alignment between existing parties but also the introduction of a new one. Some strong Labour areas are pro-Brexit and some strong Tory areas aren’t.

    This. It’s all to play for.

    You lot need to pace yourselves!

    kerley
    Member

    Then as if arranged in advance, Trump goes on the radio to slag him off.

    The tories may not have enjoyed the trade deals comments but the papers have all covered it and the “Corbyn will be bad” part is being picked out. No details on what makes having a Corbyn government/Labour policies bad bad but to the voter who can’t see past a headline (Majority of them?) it has just added to Labour’s problems

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