- This topic has 6,282 replies, 176 voices, and was last updated 4 years ago by kelvin.
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2019 General Election
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martinhutchFull MemberPosted 4 years ago
I’m torn now. Telling Piers Morgan (well, his representative) to **** off on live telly – good or bad?
BruceWeeFull MemberPosted 4 years agoIf it’s that important to people maybe they should push to have an option to somehow include their sex in the username display. Next to the ‘member’ there could be an optional Male, Female, or Non-Binary
Or just change their usernames. mefty_I_am_a_man_by_the_way, for example.
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoDefinitely agree with this, but assuming yougov are bang on, even tho Tories had a terrible couple of days they lost 40 seats in that model over 2 week period , at that rate they’d only expect to lose another 6 seats between now and then.
Well I don’t think (hope) they will be bang-on, and I think we maybe have some exponential stuff going off in this last couple of days – plus MOE hopefully going our way. Also the younger vote improving over 2015 weighting.
Fingers crossed.
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoI’m torn now. Telling Piers Morgan (well, his representative) to **** off on live telly – good or bad?
Definition of flustered live on TV.
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoBasically I’m waiting for Boris to tell a black asthmatic young kid to eff off live on TV and nick his phone and bike.
jam-boFull MemberPosted 4 years agoBasically I’m waiting for Boris to tell a black asthmatic young kid to eff off live on TV and nick his phone and bike.
hope not, last thing we need is boris getting a last minute boost in the polls.
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years agoHave we ever had a weaker man who wanted to be PM than Johnson?
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agohope not, last thing we need is boris getting a last minute boost in the polls.
🙂
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoHave we ever had a weaker man who wanted to be PM than Johnson?
Yep and the narrative was he was a strong leader that was going to campaign really well.
MSM calling this a dirty election from ALL sides. What bullshit. It’s clearly been a dirty Tory campaign.
KlunkFree MemberPosted 4 years agonewsnight should be doing forensic analysis of their own tory fake news stooge rather than some random face book lady.
kimbersFull MemberPosted 4 years ago24 hrs to go
Polls tilting against them , awful mishandling of the Leeds general story, health secretary caught lying again
All Johnson has to do is not do anything stupid, especially not live on Good Morning Britain
Here is Boris Johnson's spokesman telling a journalist to **** off, and then the Prime Minister hides in a fridge to avoid answering questions.
Kick
Them
Out.pic.twitter.com/IdShqI6eKD
— Owen Jones (@OwenJones84) December 11, 2019
bruneepFull MemberPosted 4 years ago#GE2019 Politicians: pic.twitter.com/eFrpsjK3Oi
— Larry the Cat (@Number10cat) October 29, 2019
this
binnersFull MemberPosted 4 years agoLocal polling to us is showing the seat is going to go Tory. 4,500 majority for our present Labour MP looks like being overturned and we’ll be getting some Tory sock-puppet instead.
Fantastic! 🙄
What’s really worrying is what it says about what’s happening in the northern seats the Tory’s are targeting
Present odds for labour being the largest party: 15/1
Present odds for the Conservatives being the largest party: 1.03/1
Labour Majority: 26/1
Hung parliament: 3.25/1
Conservative majority: 1.4/1
dazhFull MemberPosted 4 years agoWhat’s really worrying is what it says about what’s happening in the northern seats the Tory’s are targeting
No surprise, it’s the price of securing remain metropolitan seats. They couldn’t do both. I’ve said for a long time that labour needed to listen more to northern leave voters, but it’s an impossible problem to solve.
Rule no. 1, never take your base for granted. Won’t be a problem after this election as they won’t be coming back. Labour’s new base is the under 30s, and it’s going to take a while for the demographics to tip the balance the other way.
binnersFull MemberPosted 4 years agoNo surprise, it’s the price of securing remain metropolitan seats. They couldn’t do both.
But there’s a strong possibility they could do neither
Labour’s new base is the under 30s
The ones who don’t actually bother voting?
v8ninetyFull MemberPosted 4 years agoIf he was actually telling just Piers to Eff off, I’d have perhaps a little sympathy. But he was actually telling us all to, really. Scrutiny? Questions? ‘Eff off old chap, don’t be such a bore…’
MarkieFree MemberPosted 4 years agoWith the possibility of a hung parliment still just about there, I think of the words of Brian Stimpson… “It’s not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand.”.
roneFull MemberPosted 4 years agoPresent odds for labour being the largest party: 15/1
Present odds for the Conservatives being the largest party: 1.03/1
Labour Majority: 26/1
Hung parliament: 3.25/1
Conservative majority: 1.4/1
Bookies got it wrong in 2017.
If Lab get to just ~37% on polling day (on current trends this seems plausible and likely) the following happens:
1) They could take ~10 seats from Con in the South
2) They save all but ~10 seats in the Red Wall
3) LD's take ~5 seats from Con
4) SNP take ~6 seats from Con2/4
— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) December 10, 2019
BruceWeeFull MemberPosted 4 years agoWith the possibility of a hung parliment still just about there, I think of the words of Brian Stimpson… “It’s not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand.”.
This
slowoldmanFull MemberPosted 4 years agoTheir, they and them are now accepted as pronouns for someone who is non binary.
When did this happen? They didn’t tell me. Their communication on these issues needs improving. How do I contact them?
outofbreathFree MemberPosted 4 years agoIf Lab get to just ~37% on polling day (on current trends this seems plausible and likely) the following happens:
1) They could take ~10 seats from Con in the South
2) They save all but ~10 seats in the Red Wall
3) LD’s take ~5 seats from Con
4) SNP take ~6 seats from ConI agree with his conclusion (it’s too close to call) but not the workings. Under FPTP there’s no need for any significant relationship between votes and seats. It’s entirely possible to win less overall votes than the other parties and *still* win more seats. Jezzers national vote share could drop and he could still win the seats he need by a country mile.
We can’t predict where the seats are going, because we don’t know what the balance of Brexit/Party alleigence are in each constituency. So you can’t sensibly argue that if National polling moves by X a specific set of seats will change by Y.
KlunkFree MemberPosted 4 years agohe didn’t look very “Churchillian” in the GMTV video, Johnson reaction to a minor crisis of an impromptu interview is runaway.
molgripsFree MemberPosted 4 years agoI agree with his conclusion (it’s too close to call) but not the workings. Under FPTP there’s no need for any significant relationship between votes and seats. It’s entirely possible to win less overall votes than the other parties and *still* win more seats.
I think that guy is probably aware of this!
BruceWeeFull MemberPosted 4 years agoMy own boring story of how I’ve put my money where my mouth is in my belief in the likelihood of a hung parliament.
Currently, what with Norway being outside the customs union, we have to pay duty and a processing fee on any imported goods. The limit is 350 NOK (around £35) meaning that if the value of goods plus shipping is less than that you don’t pay any tax or fees, neither in the country you bought it from or in Norway.
I just ordered a new chain and cassette which came to a grand total of 344.47 NOK from CRC. This is far closer to the limit than I like. The reason being that they judge the value based on the exchange rate when the goods enter the country, not when I buy them.
So, if the value of the goods when they reach customs is 349,49 NOK I don’t pay any extra, whereas if it is 350,01 NOK I will have to pay an extra 257 NOK (it’s logical bureaucratic things like this you can look forward to after the UK leaves the customs union).
If there is no overall majority then I expect the Pound to plummet. If Johnson gets his majority then presumably it will go up and I will get stung with the import charges.
So there we go, that’s the really really boring explanation of my skin in the game for this election (you know, except for the fact I lose the benefits of freedom of movement and might have to move back to my parents house in Glasgow if it all goes completely tits up).
BruceWeeFull MemberPosted 4 years agoHow’s that bid for PM going, Jo?
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204506799916879875
binnersFull MemberPosted 4 years agoThe bastard! I know he’s targeting northern seats, but he’s using pies as props. PIES!!!
How dare he?! Thats taking cultural appropriation a step too far
He looks like the kind of man who’d put a puff pastry lid on a casserole and call it a pie
ferralsFree MemberPosted 4 years agoI’m a bit confused about some o the nubemrs I’ve been seeing. One of the tactical vote websites had an advert on Facebook for my constituency showing tories on 43% labour on 30% and the lib dems on 16% – Can they really get to a consituency level that well? I looked and in 2017 the libs had 2% and in 2015 3.5%, while in 2010 they had 19%, I can’t really see them jumping up again.
I’m wondering whether it total rubbsih fiures designed to try and get libs to vote labour as they would be able to block a tory take? Annoying I can’t remember which website the advert was from.
BruceWeeFull MemberPosted 4 years agoBit difficult to say anything without knowing which constituency we’re talking about.
perchypantherFree MemberPosted 4 years agoHe looks like the kind of man who’d put a puff pastry lid on a casserole and call it a pie
If he was, he’d be in the SNP.
dazhFull MemberPosted 4 years agoThe ones who don’t actually bother voting?
That is indeed the problem. Lots of labour MPs in northern and midlands seats were screaming that labour was abandoning working class leave voters, and it looks like they may have been right. If labour lose because of that, then you can be sure that in the following post-mortem the conclusion drawn won’t be that labour should have been more pro-remain as Tom Watson et al wanted.
kelvinFull MemberPosted 4 years ago> sigh <
Telling people that Brexit is probably a good idea, but that you may or may not do it, when your opponents promise they will come what may… how does that work for anyone? Not challenging the lies of 2016, so that the same team can use the same techniques in 2019, how was that ever going to work for Labour?
kimbersFull MemberPosted 4 years agotype Jon Worth & your constituency into youtube & he has a video for ever constituency thats up for grabs & an explanation of why & how you should vote
frankconwayFull MemberPosted 4 years agoThe oaf who swore at GMTV on johnson’s behalf this morning is robert oxley, johnson’s press sec.
One of his previous roles was head of media for vote leave.
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/robert-oxley-a3b7b7109ferralsFree MemberPosted 4 years agoCheers @kimbers – I know how to vote (labour) – my constituency (Gower) is a straight two horse race. I was just slightly surprised at the predicted levels of support of Lib Dems. My fist thoguht was ‘shit.. but if the lib supporters vote labour we’ll be ok,’ now wondering if the accuracy of a constituency level poll is such that the actual result could be either way
outofbreathFree MemberPosted 4 years agonow wondering if the accuracy of a constituency level poll is such that the actual result could be either way
Constituency polls are notorously unreliable. …and if it’s just a projection based on national polls it’s completely meaningless AFAIC.
In my constituency I’m guessing from people I know and the colour of the campaign signs I see dotted around. I don’t trust any predictions and you just can’t tell from previous results (but you can maybe get clues from what happened to the UKIP voters).
Telling people that Brexit is probably a good idea, but that you may or may not do it, when your opponents promise they will come what may… how does that work for anyone?
Agree. AIUI ~60pc of Tory voters are Leavers and ~60pc of Labour voters are remainers. The Torys risked walking away from 30pc of their voters in the hope they’d harvest leave Votes, Labout should have risked walking away from 30pc of their voters in the hope they’d harvest remain votes. My gut feel is they couldn’t do that because a) The leadership are leavers b) Corbyn/Momentum don’t welcome new voters, they’re all about pleasig the leftie core and c) the Manifesto doesn’t welcome new voters it’s all about pleasing the leftie core.
…but Boris is really bad and the Lib vote has collapsed so in spite of all that Labour could well be forming the next Government in this slow motion battle between the unpopular popularists.
KlunkFree MemberPosted 4 years agohas Blowjo pissed in Armando Iannucci’s shoes ? as he really doesn’t like him.
binnersFull MemberPosted 4 years agoBoris Johnson has failed to show up for an appearance on Jeremy Vince. Every other leader has done it. They’re giving him a right slating
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