+1 And why aren't the lib dems forcefully pushing that agenda now?
It’s too soon. Whilst the dynamic has shifted against Brexit, this isn’t the same as a case to rejoin. I don’t think we’ll see that case until there’s a super majority in the polls.
Besides, we need to fix the ship before we can set sail for somewhere new (old) and this is the priority of a majority of voters. Economy, healthcare, stable and effective government are the top three for most voters right now, not rehashing Brexit. Rejoining will only fix one of those and will exacerbate another.
Not the right time.
Answer: it’s not a popular policy
Apart from the fact the polls show it is. Starmers brexit stance is losing him votes and credibility. thats what the polls show. Rejoin is the key factor in fixing the UK.
Show the polls, TJ.
My last information from April 2023 said that fewer than 1 in 5 classed Brexit/Rejoin as an election deciding issue. It may be costing him some votes, but I'd wager it's not a lot.
I'd actually state that the one of the biggest reasons for rejoining is to stop/delay Indyref2, but that would be at the 2030 election, not 2024/25.
tjagain
Full Member
Answer: it’s not a popular policyApart from the fact the polls show it is. Starmers brexit stance is losing him votes and credibility. thats what the polls show. Rejoin is the key factor in fixing the UK.
I’m sure it’s been posted before but wouldn’t rejoining require adopting the Euro?
I doubt you’d get that through in my lifetime.
I’m sure it’s been posted before but wouldn’t rejoining require adopting the Euro?
I doubt you’d get that through in my lifetime.
Nice to have all the Greatest Hits from the Scottish independence thread in a new setting.
The answer to your question is Sweden.
Which is appropriate given the levels of Stockholm Syndrome in this thread.
TJ is right, opinion continues to move towards rejoin, although as chart shows that has flattened recently and may be on the way back down again - but
- it's still only just around 50% (some way short of the 66% that some moot that we need for a decision of this magnitude)
and I know that leaves out the don't knows, but at this point unless you feel strongly for something enough to say so, I tend to put you in the stay as we are bucket.
- i know this is without anyone of any electoral significance actively campaigning for it
which would have both positive and negative consequences, and past evidence suggests that the leave / stay out side would not be exactly scrupulous in that campaign. Until someone hands them a stick to beat us with, we don't know how effective they'd be at it.
- while general opinion is going that way, I'm yet to be convinced that in the relatively few battleground constituencies, the result would be mirrored.
- other polls like 'was it a mistake' or 'if it was 2016 again what would your vote be' is irrelevant now. I personally think it was a massive mistake but I don't now think reversing and going through all that again is the right decision. We need a change of government first and foremost, stabilise (nws all the other arguments about being Tory lite, etc.) and then rebuild closer ties. In that order.
i know this is without anyone of any electoral significance actively campaigning for it
apart from the SNP, Greens, Plaid, all of whom once the actual campaign gets underway will have to be given media space and will all be attacking labour as brexiteers
Don't forget the damaging consequences of the campaign process itself as well.
On labour as they get pinned on their brexiteer stance? 😉
You cannot not campaign on something the public want and is good for the country because you are scared of right wing media. Its fundamentally dishonest as is Starmers postion " make brexit work" is a lie and he must know it
For example - SNP motion being debated in the HOC today
After 12.45pm: MPs begin a debate on an SNP motion calling for the creation of a Commons cost of living committee to investigate what is driving up prices, how Brexit has contributed, and what the government should do in response.
Brexit has increased inflation and deceased growth. Unless its reversed then Starmer assuming he gets a majority which I doubt is starting off with one hand behind his back. He has stated he wants to renegotiate the withdrawal treaty and has been told no by the EU
Starmers brexit stance is losing him votes and credibility. thats what the polls show.
Labour: up massively in the polls, huge gains at real elections. SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems: in the doldrums. TJ analysis: Starmer's Brexit position is costing Labour votes.
It may be costing your vote, and it may not be the policy that I'd like to see, but net votes are not being lost, no matter how many times you say it.
something the public want
Half the public - and not the half that'll sway the election result.
apart from the SNP, Greens, Plaid
I get SNP and Plaid are local parties, but the Greens are national. If rejoin is such a big thing that 'the public' want then why didn't they tear the major parties a new one in the recent local elections?
Sure it made 200 gains - from 500-odd to 700-odd. There were iirc 8500 seats contested. That's about 2.5% extra, where were 'the public'?
At the local elections pro rejoin parties - greens and lib dems made far greater gains than the labour party
Polls clearly show the labour vote is soft and is mainly an anti tory vote not a pro labour one and that they are very vulnerable on brexit. Labour have not increased their vote so much as the tory vote collapsed
No seats were contested in Scotland ( can't remember if it was in wales)
Labour are not on course for a majority - thats very much in the balance and once the GE campaign is underway then the pro rejoin parties will get fairer airtime
If labour would ditch the enthusiastic brexiteer stance and the gaslighting then IMO they would lose a few votes, gain a lot more and firm up their vote significantly - and the local election results and polling all show this
Starmer has said he wants and needs to win seats in Scotland - his brexiteer stance is not going to allow him to do this.
For the love of God please stop.
TJ is NEVER changing his mind or accepting anyone else's points. You might as well argue with a wall.
Same could be said of you molgrips - you willnot engage just shout down
why do you think the greens made such huge and unprecedented gains in the locals?
Why is the labour vote so soft?
Two questions for you
Apart from the fact the polls show it is.
Sure, but that doesn't mean that those people would vote for parties that promote it, or would specifically vote Labour to enact it. A poll saying Brexit is unpopular is one thing, but I can completely get why political parties do not want a do-over of the last 6/7 years in reverse.
For the love of God please stop.
Other threads are available.
It's not just TJ, by the way. There are plenty on this thread who will never change their minds or accept anyone else's points.
You just happen to disagree with TJ so you notice when he's being disagreeable.
why do you think the greens made such huge and unprecedented gains in the locals?
going from 500-700 odd. Out of 8500. Less than 2.5%.
Your definition of huge needs work.
Sure, but that doesn’t mean that those people would vote for parties that promote it,
They did in the locals. The % gain for greens and lib dems was much bigger than for labour. I believe thats due to their stance on brexit and polling agrees
I will ague my corner, give my reasoning and will engage with those who disagree.
Jonv - % gains in votes and seats. Its undeniable the greens made huge and unprecedented gains - something very difficult to do as a 4th largest party
Did you read the Chris Grey article?
It is deniable. I'm denying it.
Sure - they increased their vote substantially compared to their prior vote, but if I have 50p in my pocket and add another 20p, while I'm undeniably "40% richer than I was" I've still only got 70p
To answer other points - it was an ENG and NI local election year. So no SCO or W seats, but in some ways that make analysis easier, no decision between one of the national parties vs Green. If the public so want Rejoin, why did their ACTUAL seats won only increase by around 2-2.5%
I believe thats due to their stance on brexit and polling agrees
I think you'd be on dodgy ground if you tried to link local elections with national policies. People have and do vote for different candidates in local elections for all sorts of (often very) local issues.. I don't disagree the polls show that Brexit is becoming more and more unpopular, that's pretty much undeniable, what's debateable is whether national parties that have a chance of forming the next government campaigning on it would be successful. Labour have held a significant lead in the polls since last November all the while saying that they're not going to re-open the Brexit debate, and their numbers aren't decreasing as the population's unhappiness with Brexit is getting louder.
Fair point nickc
Jonv - many ways to look at the numbers but tories lost 1000ish seats, labour only gained half of them
Labour gained 20% extra seats from where they were, greens gained 50% extra seats
I cannot find vote %
to me this and the polling all show that labours brexiteer stance is costing them votes so that they look like possibly hung parliament / possible small majority. I think with a pro EU stance they would be making more gains and their vote would not be so soft.
I am also intensely frustrated by Starmers gaslighting on brexit and that given how public opinion is moving that if he supported rejoin he would isolate the tories further and make more gains. He is also throwing away a huge opportunity in Scotland given the state of the SNP but his brexiteer stance is going to give the SNP an easy get out of jail free card because make no mistake they will play on this
I’m sure it’s been posted before but wouldn’t rejoining require adopting the Euro?
I doubt you’d get that through in my lifetime.
Quite frankly for 99% of us, who GAS what currency we use, as long as it's the one we're 'paid in' that's really all that matters.
The % gain for greens and lib dems was much bigger than for labour. I believe thats due to their stance on brexit and polling agrees
You can't think of any other reasons for votes to shift besides Brexit?
I will ague my corner, give my reasoning and will engage with those who disagree.
You expect us to accept your analysis but you won't accept anyone else's, you mean.
NO Molgrips - I will argue my corner and listen to the counter arguments - see my response to nickc above
I don't expect you to accept my analysis but a respectful debate would be nice
It would yes. I am just ribbing you because you always say the same things over and over again 🙂
I'll stop now.
Personally I think Labour's recent announcement about scrapping universal childcare will do them more harm than their stance on Brexit
Jonv – many ways to look at the numbers but tories lost 1000ish seats, labour only gained half of them
Only half? Slackers, the lot of them 😂
Or look at it as the pro rejoin parties made as many gains in seats as labour did from a much lower base and a much larger % increase
lies damn lies and statistics
Jonv – many ways to look at the numbers but tories lost 1000ish seats, labour only gained half of them
Labour gained 20% extra seats from where they were, greens gained 50% extra seats
%'s mask absolutes - Labour gained 500-odd extra seats, despite a 'pro-brexit' stance that is costing them votes?
And the Greens gained 200-odd extra seats (agreed, a very good result for them from their low base) despite being the rejoin horse in this particular race.
I know there are other factors at play, including the anyone but Tory tactical vote - even the LDs gained twice as many seats as the Greens, and now have 3-4x the number overall that the Greens have, and no-one knows what the LDs stand for! But those absolute numbers (not % compared to base) don't tell me of a massive rush to pro-rejoin, and they don't tell me of people deserting LAB in their droves.
I think I can understand why some parties might be pro-EU while not currently campaigning to rejoin. Leaving the EU took several years and took up a lot of the government's and parliament's time, which distracted both from many other issues that required attention. I have no doubt that rejoining would do the same. Perhaps some people believe that it would be better to spend some time focusing on other issues before beginning the long slog to rejoining the EU?
I can also imagine that while there is public support for rejoining the EU, it might start slipping away when the news headlines start filling up with stories of the seemingly never-ending political and diplomatic battles that would follow, and frustration would grow about the amount of time and money being spent on it while other issues were being side-lined because of it. Some parties may not want to commit to that course of action until they're confident that public support is strong and resilient.
That said, Labour's current message does seem to be that they aren't even thinking about rejoining, even beyond the short term. Maybe that's because of temerity and a concern that sounding pro-EU is still going to cost them votes they need, rather than because they don't want to rejoin, but even then it's frustrating and disappointing.
Quite frankly for 99% of us, who GAS what currency we use, as long as it’s the one we’re ‘paid in’ that’s really all that matters
it’s probably more like 48% or less of us don’t GAS. Plenty will care outside of this echo chamber.
It’d be daft to think otherwise.
Quite frankly for 99% of us, who GAS what currency we use, as long as it’s the one we’re ‘paid in’ that’s really all that matters
You're joking aren't you?
Theres a significant element is this country (52% at the last count) that have never stopped moaning about using metric measurements instead of double-decker buses and football pitches, and bitching about why they can't pay for things in threepenny groats, shillings and chickens
instead of double-decker buses and football pitches
Well, if we do start to head back into the EU we can start a negotiation over whether the appropriate SI unit of "Very Large Things Indeed" should be measured in Wales or France
I thought it was "isle of Wights" which is rubbish as I have no idea its size.
ChrisL makes a good point. If a party commits to moving in that direction, they'd have to start doing it. And that would take up a huge amount of parliamentary time when there are really other things that need urgent attention right now. Long term, of course we'd be better off in the EU and a stronger economy will help us pay for what we need - we all know that - but the country is currently on fire, in terms of governance and that needs putting out. That will take at least a term.
Sadly I do think universal childcare would have given us a great start in putting those fires out.
I think I can understand why some parties might be pro-EU while not currently campaigning to rejoin
Yes. It isnt something which would make sense in the next five years. However there could be alignment short of full rejoin attempt and also just acknowledge that brexit has failed.
Look at the reasons why people voted out and explain why it was never going to solve most of them and how in many cases its got worse.
The pretending its all fine is a problem.
Well, under our previous 'deal' we retained sterling, had a right of veto and had a seat at all the tables to do with the future direction of the EU.
Now?
Blue passports.
👏
