i don't follow these things, and was hoping someone on here might have some educated insight
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whats the forecast for the UK property market?
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Posted 1 year ago #
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Posted 1 year ago #
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take four STWers to discuss the property market and get 13 different opinions. *shrugs*
Posted 1 year ago # -
I just don't think you can look at it UK wide, its area by area, sometimes street by street.
Posted 1 year ago # -
buy the worst house in the best area you can afford. As for how you define a good area that is your problem.
Posted 1 year ago # -
We went and looked at a house on Saturday. Last sold in 1999 now on the market at 2.6 times the price it sold for then. No work/extensions etc. beyond cavity wall insulation, house still in various states of redecoration, e.g. no flooring in the hallway or upstairs landing, no railings on the bannister etc. People are still asking silly money for houses that just aren't worth it.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Forecast? Realistically, cloudy with showers, cooler than normal - temperatures returning to normal in 18-24 months.
That said, a house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Estate agents simply look at what the houses next door sold for when it comes to pricing.Posted 1 year ago # -
Last sold in 1999 now on the market at 2.6 times the price it sold for then.
Only 2.6?
Must be a rough area.
Posted 1 year ago # -
My property has been on the market for months. Plenty of viewings but that's as far as it goes.
Posted 1 year ago # -
my view is it will go down a little bit then back up long term but not spectacularily like before. Drop 10 % then say 3 % growth after 5-10 years. I base this wild speculation on a feeling
HTH.Posted 1 year ago # -
Wev'e got a crappy house in Castleford (renty).
Think we'll ever sell it?Posted 1 year ago # -
Well, I'm quite shocked at offers that vendors are accepting. I've dropped my price several times but there seems to be offers made of 10%-15% less than the asking price.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Only 2.6?
Must be a rough area
Average increase over last 10 years is something like 96%.
Your guess was correct, but I'm not sure of your reasoning
Posted 1 year ago # -
That's normal for first offers CG, last time I remember looking the average house sold for around 8% under asking price. And hence 1st offers will be lower than that, in fact I was told by a mate who was also an estate agent that if you aren't embarrassed by your 1st offer it isn't low enough!
Agree with 1st reply, it's going to be different depending on where you are. I started to write what I think would happen, but then realised that it seems to be synonymous with what I want to happen
Posted 1 year ago # -
Average increase over last 10 years is something like 96%.
Your guess was correct, but I'm not sure of your reasoning
It's 2011.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Sold Dec 1999, now Feb 2011 an extra year at 10% is still 106% versus 160%, or am I missing something?
Posted 1 year ago # -
The public sector redundancies are going to properly cut in over the next couple of months, which I think will have a big effect on the amount of property for sale in the middle market, as people can't afford to keep up with mortgages. If that happens prices are likely to go down a fair bit in the areas worst effected, and this will trickle down to cheaper areas, because people with money will trade up. Just my gut feeling, but I don't think the next couple of years will be very stable.
Posted 1 year ago # -
I just don't think you can look at it UK wide, its area by area, sometimes street by street.
where it's a school driving the price be aware that LA's to lower their carbon footprint are going for lottery selection which is going to knock £k's off your house price
Posted 1 year ago # -
The public sector redundancies are going to properly cut in over the next couple of months, which I think will have a big effect on the amount of property for sale in the middle market, as people can't afford to keep up with mortgages.
the effect will be staggered due to high payouts (name a LA that's offering statuatory minimum) and redundancy insurance
a hit yes but not catastrophic
Posted 1 year ago # -
Sold Dec 1999, now Feb 2011 an extra year at 10% is still 106% versus 160%, or am I missing something?
Yeah the rest of my post sorry. House next door to us last sold in 99 and then again last year, price went up by more than 4x.
Like said up there it varies in areas, around here they've hardly changed at all and most still selling quickly.
Posted 1 year ago # -
the effect will be staggered due to high payouts (name a LA that's offering statuatory minimum) and redundancy insurance
Yup the pension forecasts automatically sent out for the over 50s and offering of redundancy for senior mangers will help.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Some of my viewings include people who are downsizing. Actually, it's quite a mixture of situations.
Posted 1 year ago # -
My possible public sector redundancy wouldn't take effect until the end of June, so still a bit to go before the local housing market goes bust!
Posted 1 year ago # -
My property has been on the market for months. Plenty of viewings but that's as far as it goes.
Is the decomposing badger part of the viewing tour?
Posted 1 year ago # -
The price of reposessions in our street has gone up significantly in a year or so.
How much cheaper do you reckon repos are than normal sales?
Posted 1 year ago # -
Estate agents simply look at what the houses next door sold for when it comes to pricing.
How else are they supposed to value houses? How are shares, second hand cars or other stuff on ebay valued? Find some comparables and go from there.
Personally I think houses are wildly overvalued and that this is the elephant in the room that politicians don't want to discuss because it it is too painfiul and contentious. The supply of houses is just way too low for the population / demand but unless we are prepared (personally I am not) to build all over what is left of our countryside, esp in the south, then the undersupply relative to demand will continue and prices will remain silly.
Governments could try restricting second homes and buy to lets and making councils and other statutory bodies allow use of their housing stock but very contentious and quite a blunt instrument. No government I have heard of has the balls for it.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Very rarely any VFM in the market these days - some areas excepted of course.
Did some looking around last week and saw a 3 bed in our road for £545k! WTF?
Posted 1 year ago # -
There may be trouble ahead. But while there's moonlight and music, and love and romance ....... let's face the music and dance.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Took mine off the Market last week. For sale since Easter last year with 6 or so viewings and that's it. Close to Halifax tho and I think the hbos uncertainty local may be giving potential punters the jitters.
Starting loft conversion soon then may try and sell again.Posted 1 year ago # -
Is the decomposing badger part of the viewing tour?
No badger yet although I did come across a tidy roadkill recently.
Did I mention the rather large deer antler on the table?
Posted 1 year ago # -
surely the question is how much credit will be available and how big wage increases will be?
these have a big impact on house prices.or have a look at this pretty graph below and take note of the 2 previous cyclical house price booms and crashes then take a wild guess
Posted 1 year ago # -
I had 2 estate agents and an architect in for a trim over the course of a week at the end of Jan and they all are hoping/expecting houses to start selling in spring.
This is based on two things.
1. A massive percentage of the country is waiting to find out about their jobs but most will keep them or get a nice payout.
2. You can only keep the housing market down for so long. In the last few years, lots of people will have had their situations change through starting out in life/divorce/marriage, etc..
They weren't saying prices would go up/down, just that they would start to shift.
On a plus side Persimmon up here around Bradford are selling every house they build.
Posted 1 year ago # -
I think it will be broadly flat, in real terms, for the next few years. But, and this is key - almost nobody has been good at predicting the last 5 years. other than those who were saying the market would crash for the last 8 years, no-one said it would drop like a stone in 2008 - and *no-one* forsaw the big rise back over the last 18 month. Prices seem to be dropping slowly now, but in 5 years, who's to know?
Chances are, over 10 years they'll be up. unless something happens with tax to pull the BTL market down, or something happens cuturally and we move back to larger groups of people in houses (up from an average of ~2 to ~3) I can't see the bottom falling out of the market.
Posted 1 year ago # -
*no-one* forsaw the big rise back over the last 18 month
Plenty of people foresaw this, including certain politicians who were facing an election. Asset price inflation an expected consequence of
printing moneyquantitative easing.Posted 1 year ago # -
hh45 - Member
Personally I think houses are wildly overvalued and that this is the elephant in the room that politicians don't want to discuss because it it is too painfiul and contentious. The supply of houses is just way too low for the population / demand but unless we are prepared (personally I am not) to build all over what is left of our countryside, esp in the south, then the undersupply relative to demand will continue and prices will remain silly.
Posted 10 hours ago # Report-Post
I think hh45 is correct.
Supply and demand is the real issue with house prices, especially in the South. That along with London generating a lot of very well paid jobs (banking in particular), the trickle down effect of those well paid jobs will continue to fuel house prices. Also, at the moment it would appear that there are plenty of Chinese, Russian and Middle Eastern buyers in London buying high value properties, these buyers will help keep property prices high. Other areas in the UK might not benefit from this trickle down effect and we might see a temporary lull in the South with rising house values but I fully expect to see house prices start rising again.
The BBCs Countryfile highlighted the inflated house price problem last night with the feature on the Cotswolds, people want to live there and some people can easily afford to pay inflated prices and will continue to pay high prices for the privilege to live in these desirable areas.
Another problem we have at the moment is developers and financiers are not putting their money into housing projects that include social housing. They can get a better return on their money elsewhere so that doesn't help with the supply of affordable housing.
IMO.
Posted 1 year ago #
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