China’s GDP per capita is at a level with such noted world powers as El Salvador, Bosnia and Albania. World domination is well and truly on the back burner.
It has nothing to do with GDP per capita. Qatar has the highest GDP per capita in the world, followed closely by Luxembourg, neither countries are ever likely to achieve “world domination”.
In ten years time China will have the largest economy in the world. Being the wealthiest country in the world gives any country huge clout and a very dominating role.
Although it has to be said that in ten years time China will still not match the United States in terms of political and diplomatic clout, on account that they will still be the new kids on the block. Similarly they won’t match the US militarily, but that will come with time.
And the process is likely to accelerate. Partly because wealth gives a disproportionate advantage, but also because the US is experiencing a long, slow, and irreversible, decline.
Already the US has completely lost the total dominance it once had over the New World. In large part because the last administration took its eye off Latin American whilst concentrating instead on “vital US interests” in the Middle East. And despite that, we are now today witnessing the reduction of US dominance in the Middle East/North Africa, as their client states become more unstable on an almost daily basis.
The US has insufficient influence in the rest of Africa to keep China in check. Likewise in Asia, as countries in that region begin to see the economic advantages of forging stronger ties with China.
The last area in which the US will still maintain a substantial influence in, at least in political, diplomatic, and military terms, will be Europe. But that will also wane as its decline will force it to look more inwardly – something which it has always tended to do when faced with harsh economic realities at home.
Besides, Europe’s global dominance will also go into a period of some decline, as other new emerging economic superpowers such a Brazil and India start flexing their muscles. So US influence in Europe will be of much less global consequence.
Expect the world to be very different in 30 years time – unlike today it will be very much a multipolar world. Not only because of China, Russia, India, and Brazil, but many other smaller countries, such as some in Latin America, will surge ahead.
And expect too for the United States to eventually start breaking up. As the wealthiest states such as California and Texas see little advantage in sustaining the much poorer states.
Posted 13 years ago
