A mate and I are off to Cwmcarn for a day of riding DH. We're booked on the uplift but wondered if we would be better off taking our canoes rather than our bikes.

Anyone seen anything other than appalling weather reports for tomorrow?

I usually ride cwmcarn on Friday evenings on the way home from work (XC up, DH course down) but can't see it happening tomorrow. BBC and MetCheck both look pretty soggy!

its torrential here at the moment, i live 5 mins from cwmcarn

Similar here, though we're off to Afan. Only ever been once before and that was in the dry. So, what's it like in the, very given the forecast, wet?

Wet and windy. So wales will muddy

you can ride the cwmcarn dh in pretty much all weather

its loads of fun in the wet and still pretty grippy, just make sure you have waterproofs spare gloves are nice too

afan fine in the wet but take spare brake pads

Kimbers – yeah I always said that it runs fastest when it's been dry but then rained a little. I've had so many ultra wet days there – so wet that I could have pi**ed myself and I wouldn't have noticed the difference.

Flatback – given you're local can you tell me whether the Daran is still there? I know they put the first half beyond use a while back but I heard the lower half was OK.

BBC suggests biblical weather. Sunday at Cwm Carn looks like a good idea to me.

Plenty of rain tomorrow and the strong southsouthwest gradient winds will enhance the orographic component of the rainfall drastically the further up the south wales valleys, the relatively high theta-w will make this worse.
Ground is already saturated in South Wales so much of the heavy rainfall will run off immediately across roads, and with saturated soil conditions small landslips are possible. Travelling in South Wales valleys tomorrow could get very fraught if all these things come together. We've already had a small landslip nr Chepstow tonight which has closed a railway line. Remember the Rugby in Cardiff tomorrow night to, so lots of people will be trying to get into Cardiff during rush hour instead of away from it.