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Ukraine, Russia, Poland & war
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MosesFull Member
I’ve just returned from a weekend in Poland, where my friends are seriously worried about Russia. An academic mate has had to cancel plans for a conference because the government is saving its Zlotys for bullets. Putin has put tanks into Ukraine, and a Russian minister has threatened to bomb Poland & the Baltics if NATO puts any bases there.
Putin has also said that he could conquer Kiev in a fortnight if he wanted. And he probably will.
Why aren’t we more concerned?jota180Free MemberCMD has a piece of paper signed by the Russians saying they won’t invade Poland, he was waving it around.
sounds good to me.
seosamh77Free MemberMoses – Member
Why aren’t we more concerned?Cause it’s none of my business.
monkeysfeetFree MemberKeep Calm Everybody….Tony Blair will be along soon to save us all, after the great job he has done as Peace Envoy for the Middle East. 😆
jambalayaFree Member@moses I am very concerned.
Putin has always made it clear he would not tolerate a NATO member as a direct neighbour. NATO creating a quick responce force of 4,000 isn’t going to bother Putin, its like ” see your 4,000 and raise you 40,000″. The sanctions which have been put in place will start to hurt Russia but it’s a game of “chicken” as European banks have lend $100’s of billions to Russian companies and if there is further conflict they won’t get it back. Also the US sees this as a European problem, the US has very little trade with Russia and wants the EU to take the lead. With the winter approaching Putin can once again switch the gas off to Ukraine.
soobaliasFree Memberwhy are you not more concerned? not sure
all putin is really trying to do is re-unify the USSR, break the back of the $ as the world currency and shoot some wildlife in his spare time.Still, do you want him to side against IS
MoreCashThanDashFull MemberWe need to be very concerned about all this.
No idea what the solution is. Putin has gone all Hitler on us, and has the potential to really impact tbe European economy even without going to war, let alone what we do if he properly starts annexing countries.
Mind you, if we took possession of all Russian owned assets over here we could pay off the deficit.
BigDummyFree MemberDoes everyone remember the last time the Russians attacked a former Soviet country that was being considered for NATO membership?
It wasn’t a massive deal.
I do not believe for a second that they will attack Poland. Nor will they make so much mischief in Ukraine that they provoke a serious NATO response. They will make an appreciable nuisance of themselves, and we will impose substantial trade sanctions. They are conducting a very limited war rather than trying to invade Kiev precisely because they do not want to fight in earnest.
surroundedbyhillsFree MemberI’m not sure I fully understand his motives, he says he is protecting ethinc Russians in other states/regions but if Putin is trying to expand his borders, given that there are many more established nations, how woud he control them all? Surely he would end up with no trade with Europe and be spending huge sums on keeping out/fighting insurgents?
jambalayaFree Member@morecash
Putin has gone all Hitler on us
Did you see the speech he gave to the school kids recently, he was comparing the West to Hitler in attacking Russians living in Ukraine and how he was coming to their rescue.
Mind you, if we took possession of all Russian owned assets over here we could pay off the deficit.
Sadly it wouldn’t make much of a dent 😥
jota180Free MemberAlso the US sees this as a European problem, the US has very little trade with Russia and wants the EU to take the lead. With the winter approaching Putin can once again switch the gas off to Ukraine.
I don’t think the US does see it as a wholly European problem
They’re desperate to break the gas reliance some of Europe has on Russian supplies and it certainly isn’t just a commercial venture.binnersFull MemberPutin is mental!!! All that topless shark wrestling and stuff! Absolutely hatstand
But I don’t know if he’s mental enough to start a proper fight with a NATO member. Actually…. thinking about it… he is that mental, isn’t he?
Whats clear as day, in Ukraine, is that he doesn’t give a flying one what anyone outside Russia thinks, as he knows he’s got most opt the west by the short and curllies. The entire European economy is awash with dodgy laundered russian moolah (they own most of London FFS!), and dependent on its energy exports. We’re not going to do a bloody thing! And he knows it!
The Americans can sabre rattle all they like. They’ll have no allies in Europe as the potential fall-out would be catastrophic for the Euro economy
jambalayaFree Member@surrounded – Putin wants a buffer zone of friendly states around him and certainly no NATO members. The Ukrainians overthrew the Putin supported Government so he annexed Crimea. The fact is Crimea and Eastern Ukraine is primarily ethnic Russians.
As for trade with Europe its a game of chicken, he knows Europe wants to sell goods to Russia and that Europe needs Russian gas.
jambalayaFree Member@binners the Americans aren’t going to do much of anything, as far as they are concerned its a European problem and they want Europe to take the lead.
seosamh77Free Memberjambalaya – Member
The EU supported rebels overthrew the Putin supported Government so he annexed Crimea. The fact is Crimea and Eastern Ukraine is primarily ethnic Russians.FTFY.
the Russian scare stories we hear these days are just because the EU **** up their plan and Putin took advantage.
I’d wager all Putin is doing now is annexing a little bit more of the Ukraine, I doubt there’s a hope in hell they’d attack Poland.
Tom_W1987Free MemberPutin has always made it clear he would not tolerate a NATO member as a direct neighbour. NATO creating a quick responce force of 4,000 isn’t going to bother Putin, its like ” see your 4,000 and raise you 40,000″. The sanctions which have been put in place will start to hurt Russia but it’s a game of “chicken” as European banks have lend $100’s of billions to Russian companies and if there is further conflict they won’t get it back. Also the US sees this as a European problem, the US has very little trade with Russia and wants the EU to take the lead. With the winter approaching Putin can once again switch the gas off to Ukraine.
If you seriously think Putin has the balls to attack an EU member state then you’re having a laugh. And we’d have plenty of warning of an impending invasion as well. This isn’t the 1930’s, satellites will warn of us of any serious mobilisation against the EU.
Secondly, if you think the EU can’t respond conventionally, then you are wrong. We have 600 4.5 generation fighters and 1000 4th generation fighters, the Russian air force doesn’t look so scary now does it?
brooessFree MemberWell the problem;s been bubbling away for some time now and it’s not gone away…
I suspect government are far more worried than we think – Putin’s a sharp operator and is playing the long game for Russian glory and maintaining his own grip on power.
I don’t think he wants to go to war – he’s calculating rather than mad and even under current financial constraints, US and Europe are very well equipped militarily.
However, he definitely wants us to think he’s prepared to go further.
WW1 was by some estimates an accident – the opposing powers didn’t want to go to war but pushed the brinkmanship too far. He may end up doing this if we don’t take care and always leave him a get-out…
I do hope it takes the Russian money out of London houses so I can afford somewhere to live!
jambalayaFree Member@Tom, that’s not what I said. Putin wants a barrier of non EU/NATO states, so that he can control/invade those neutral states if absolutely necessary – that’s what he’s done in the Ukraine. Poland is an exception of course.
From Stratfor.com a political and security opinion website, quite a scary “recommendation”
The United States ought to adopt the policy of the Cold War. That consisted of four parts. First, allies were expected to provide the geographical foundation of defense and substantial forces to respond to threats. Second, the United States was to provide military and economic aid as necessary to support this structure. Third, the United States was to pre-position some forces as guarantors of U.S. commitment and as immediate support. And fourth, Washington was to guarantee the total commitment of all U.S. forces to defending allies, although the need to fulfill the last guarantee never arose.
LHSFree MemberJust saw Putin in Starbucks in Wroclaw.
He ordered a decaf soya americano with extra chilli sauce.
bikebouyFree MemberMoreCashThanDash – Member
We need to be very concerned about all this.Disagree, “shite and couldn’t give a” springs to mind.
Tom_W1987Free MemberThe United States ought to adopt the policy of the Cold War. That consisted of four parts. First, allies were expected to provide the geographical foundation of defense and substantial forces to respond to threats. Second, the United States was to provide military and economic aid as necessary to support this structure. Third, the United States was to pre-position some forces as guarantors of U.S. commitment and as immediate support. And fourth, Washington was to guarantee the total commitment of all U.S. forces to defending allies, although the need to fulfill the last guarantee never arose.
What’s so scary about this? The scarier option is to do nothing.
LHSFree MemberMoreCashThanDash – Member
We need to be very concerned about all this.Disagree, “shite and couldn’t give a” springs to mind.
Agreed, compared to what is happening in
Syria, Iraq, Afghanistanthe middle east, this is just war games.Don’t worry, you haven’t seen the wrath of Finland yet, wait to see what happens when Russia puts one foot on Polish soil, it’ll rain, fire, brimstone and Kaalikääryleet down on Putins head.
jambalayaFree MemberTom – a return to full cold war status would cost us all a huge amount in extra taxes to fund a rebuilding of our military. I don’t have the numbers to hand of military now vs when all the troops where in Germany in the 70’s. I think the US alone had 500,000 troops in Germany, aside from the armies being smaller all the equipment and facilities have been lost and today’s replacements are much much more expensive.
ninfanFree MemberWhy aren’t we more concerned?
Because the Ukraine is not a NATO member, and Europe has been caught pissing in Russia’s back yard!
The EU nations support of the violent and unconstitutional overthrow of a democratically elected president in Ukraine is intolerable, utterly shameful! Whatever we may feel about Russia’s influence and actions after that cannot and must not take away from the fact that there was a coup, and we in the west backed it.
Poland and the other new NATO members can cry all they like, I would take their bleatings of fear more seriously if they had been investing in their own defence forces, but none of them have come close to the annual spend of the key NATO countries (in GDP, let alone total figures)
Nor is what Russia have been doing in Ukraine really any different from the meddling we in UK and the US did in countless countries over the past decade and a bit – we supported and openly intervened where it was in our own interests. The moral panic is misplaced, we’re at least as bad as the Russians, probably worse – the hypocrisy of our own governments is rank!
ohnohesbackFree MemberThe West needs to look at itself in the mirror and ask why does NATO still exist 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, and why the EU is so intent on expanding eastwards.
Tom_W1987Free MemberPoland and the other new NATO members can cry all they like, I would take their bleatings of fear more seriously if they had been investing in their own defence forces, but none of them have come close to the annual spend of the key NATO countries
You mean the UK, Greece and Estonia? Neither Germany or France do either, or anyone else for that matter.
kimbersFull MemberThe west have invaded a fair few countries, recently Afghanistan and Iraq spring to mind we were there for a few years leveled some towns tried to install an acceptable government and then legged it when the sectarian bit of a mess got too unbearable.
I can’t see that Putin will end up doing it any worse than we did.
Of course an ex colleague who’s since returned to Ukraine doesn’t see it that way.
She’s wondering why Europe doesn’t seem bothered that Russia has hundreds of tanks and soldiers currently running around Ukraine, her and her mates on facebook are taking his recent comment that he could capture Kiev in 2 days very seriously and I suspect that every former soviet state is probably similarly concerned.
Tom_W1987Free MemberThe EU nations support of the violent and unconstitutional overthrow of a democratically elected president in Ukraine is intolerable, utterly shameful! Whatever we may feel about Russia’s influence and actions after that cannot and must not take away from the fact that there was a coup, and we in the west backed it.
A president who’s original mandate was closer ties to the European Union? No wonder people protested/rioted when he turned his back on that policy.
I wish the British were more like that.
ninfanFree MemberA president who’s original mandate was closer ties to the European Union? No wonder people protested/rioted when he turned his back on that policy.
Regardless, there was a process within the Ukranian constitution for impeachment of the sitting president, it was not followed – that is not democracy at work, its intolerable
I suspect that every former soviet state is probably similarly concerned.
IanMunroFree MemberI wish the British were more like that.
I don’t.
In so-much that I’d prefer that we just wait to the next election and vote for someone else, rather than start a civil war.teamhurtmoreFree MemberThe West promised not to extend NATO eastwards after the unification of Germany. What has happened since? And then Ukraine moves towards EU. How would you expect Russia to react given it’s history?
rossateaseFree Memberninfan – Member
Why aren’t we more concerned?
Because the Ukraine is not a NATO member, and Europe has been caught pissing in Russia’s back yard!The EU nations support of the violent and unconstitutional overthrow of a democratically elected president in Ukraine is intolerable, utterly shameful! Whatever we may feel about Russia’s influence and actions after that cannot and must not take away from the fact that there was a coup, and we in the west backed it.
Poland and the other new NATO members can cry all they like, I would take their bleatings of fear more seriously if they had been investing in their own defence forces, but none of them have come close to the annual spend of the key NATO countries (in GDP, let alone total figures)
Nor is what Russia have been doing in Ukraine really any different from the meddling we in UK and the US did in countless countries over the past decade and a bit – we supported and openly intervened where it was in our own interests. The moral panic is misplaced, we’re at least as bad as the Russians, probably worse – the hypocrisy of our own governments is rank!
This… Spot on.The problem comes from ‘Us’ thinking we ‘won’ the cold war and crowing about it, nobody likes to feel the underdog, it was exactly the reason WW2 followed WW1. and the West just couldn’t leave it alone could they, they had to influence right up to their back door, it’s no wonder Putin is so popular.
Then we have a limp wrist in the white house, verging on being a lame duck when it comes to Foreign policy, in thrall to Israel, totally screwed in the middle east not knowing which way to turn in the Arab world and who’s looking the least stupid now over the Syria issue?
Let them divide Ukraine it’s bloody half Russian anyway who even cares. They won’t touch Poland that would cause problems and stupid Putin is not.
Tom_W1987Free MemberRegardless, there was a process within the Ukranian constitution for impeachment of the sitting president, it was not followed – that is not democracy at work, its intolerable
Meh, from what I’ve read the Ukrainians view their democracy as highly corrupt and never trusted official avenues.
This rings true – “Where a government has come into power through some form of popular vote, fraudulent or not, and maintains at least an appearance of constitutional legality, the guerrilla outbreak cannot be promoted, since the possibilities of peaceful struggle have not yet been exhausted.” – Guevara
Lets not forget that initially the unrest was mostly about protesting, however the president lost his appearance of constitutional legality by the way he handled the situation and exhausted the protestors avenues for peaceful struggle. So I’m sorry, but I can’t agree with your assertion that their revolution was some sort of outrage.
diggaFree MemberPutin is out on a limb with the Ukraine. Understandably, there are those in high places in Russia who do not like his grandstanding and chest-thumping any more than we do. War or not, this could yet be his undoing.
Don’t forget there is a lot of Russian wealth that is at threat here.
meftyFree MemberDon’t forget there is a lot of Russian wealth that is at threat here.
Allegedly much of it is Putin’s.
ninfanFree MemberHows the weather forecast looking for this winter?
Nice and warm I hope?
That German powerhouse thats underpinning the whole European economy won’t be looking forward to a good long cold snap and rocketing gas prices 😈
rossateaseFree MemberTom_W1987 – Member
Meh, from what I’ve read the Ukrainians view their democracy as highly corrupt and never trusted official avenues.
What and ours isn’t?
Can you even smell coffee?
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