On the 20th September: BBC News. I can’t help feeling that some far right crazy nutbag party is going to get into power. Not good! 🙁

Not good for who exactly?

A far right party won’t get into power. Tsipras approval ratings are high and opinion polls suggest that Syriza will win comfortably. There doesn’t appear to be any increased support for Golden Dawn.

The only reason for Tsipras calling an early election is because of opposition within his own party. I don’t know how a general election might resolve that if all the Syriza MPs who have rebelled against him are reelected.

Maybe people will see sense and think about voting Nea Dimocratica back in? Not sure how much good they have done for Greece but also not sure how good Tsipras and his crew have been either.

Greece seems to have swung between left and right for decades – the civil war and the General’s Junta seem to have been worse for the populace than WWII in many ways.

Maybe a centre-right party like ND might be a a good idea after all.

Love the place and have spent a good few months there over the last fifteen years but their corruption and national sport of tax evasion don’t make the place any better for themselves.

Aargh…

Think its a smart move to get a solid vote for his policies so far and this will allow him to go forward with increased an majority. Will also quieten the doubters or give him a free hand to move them.

Bugger me he’s only gone and resigned: BBC News

He has to resign so there can be an ellection. As he says he’s seeking the backing of the Greek people because he didnt manage to get the deal he was ellected on. Given his popularity rating etc this will see him elected again with a firm mandate to continue making the best deal he can get.

Hang on. Has he completely resigned or has he resigned temporarily in the hope of being re-elected?

Good for him

Elected on the basis of policies that he was unable to implement

Time for people to make their own judgement – let them decide

But another example of who wins when gesture politics meet hard, cold economic reality.

He promised a false dream that was impossible to deliver. Time to replace gestures with some honesty.

teamhurtmore – Member

But another example of who wins when gesture politics meet hard, cold economic reality.

That’s not at all true, and you know it. It’s not economic reality that’s ruled in Greece, it’s pretty much the opposite- politics have overruled economic sense.

teamhurtmore – Member

He promised a false dream that was impossible to deliver.

The EU has demanded a false solution which is impossible to deliver.

Cold economic reality as seen by the Managing Director of the IMF :

“However, I remain firmly of the view that Greece’s debt has become unsustainable and that Greece cannot restore debt sustainability solely through actions on its own. Thus, it is equally critical for medium and long-term debt sustainability that Greece’s European partners make concrete commitments in the context of the first review of the ESM program to provide significant debt relief, well beyond what has been considered so far.”

u know it. It’s not economic reality that’s ruled in Greece, it’s pretty much the opposite- politics have overruled economic sense.

Nail. Head. Economic reality is as described by Varoufakis, who was shot down in flames. Now he’s gone what he said is being repeated by every serious economic commentator.

e will see sense and think about voting Nea Dimocratica bacI in

Since it was ND who created this mess along with PASOK I think you can pretty much rule that out. Voting ND would not constitute “seeing sense” according to any normal understanding of the term.

You are correct that Greece has been messed up by civil war and dictatorship but compared with countries to the south I guess you might say that they got off lightly. US/UK interference in other countries was just getting going at that point and was only minor stuff like napalming, shooting unarmed demonstrators etc.

Northwind – Member 
That’s not at all true, and you know it. It’s not economic reality that’s ruled in Greece, it’s pretty much the opposite

On the contrary, there has been one constant throughout this whole sorry episode – the basic laws of economics. They have ruled supreme despite the fact that ALL parties have chosen to ignore them.

Economics tells you:

what happens to wages and/or employment under fixed exchange rates
the factors that determine debt sustainability
the impact of running primary surpluses in the middle of a recession (note how austerity George has run one of the most accommodative fiscal policies in the developed world – pure hard economics)
Etc….

And this is a thread about Tsipras – so yes it was gesture politics and it ran into hard economics and failed. The level of political subterfuge that surrounded this was another important story (on all sides) – what was his mandate? What was the purpose of the snap referendum? What was the reality of Varoufakis’ real’ plan (not the rhetoric)

The poor people of Greece who have been let down by everyone can see the hard truths of economics everyday. Politics merely provided the appropriately tragic context.

Varoufakis said more or less what you listed, but the troika insisted on political gestures like cutting pensions. Syriza, perhaps naively, proposed plans based on economics but ran into the political ambitions of various Euro nitwits

Syriza, perhaps naively, proposed plans based on economics

Even if that’s true then they still negotiated poorly through the whole thing and wasted valuable time when they could have been helping improve the situation in Greece.

For all their bluster what concessions have Syriza managed to get after all that childish behaviour?

Dragon – what do you imagine they could have done to improve the situation? If your opponent refuses to discuss honestly your hands are tied In what way was their behaviour “childish”? What they achieved – little, it’s true – was to put debt forgiveness back at the top of the agenda, and, for the benefit of the rest of Europe, to highlight the antidemocratic nature of EU institutions.

I think they will get debt relief eventually if Greece follows the plan. What Greece has got to do first is change its economic policies. Show some positive reforms. No debt relief without genuine realistic engagement to solve their long term economic issues. Just reading between the lines

Pawsy – they do need that, and they proposed plenty of reforms. But the troika doesn’t want that. They want the country plundered by big business, so independent pharmacies and bakers replaced by multinationals, regional airports sold off to the German state etc etc.

they still negotiated poorly through the whole thing and wasted valuable time when they could have been helping improve the situation in Greece.

Tsipras approval ratings are high, higher than when he first became PM, in some surveys it hits 70%. This has been put down to how he has negotiated with the EU despite achieving little in return.

Greeks appear to be putting the blame on the EU rather than Tsipras.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras Remains Popular Despite Tough Bailout Deal

He brought home a punishingly harsh bailout deal from Europe and was forced to impose tough controls on bank withdrawals, but Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is as popular as ever at home.

Mr. Tsipris’s approval ratings are at more than 60%, according to a recent poll by Kapa Research. Greeks feel that although he lost a power struggle with German-led creditors, he fought hard during five difficult months of negotiations.

“It’s not that people do not realize that Mr. Tsipras made mistakes, but he is at least credited with an effort to achieve something better,” said John Loulis, political analyst at Athens-based communications consultancy STR.

Opinion polls show that Greeks also don’t want to go back to the parties and leaders who used to dominate the country’s politics, and who are widely blamed for getting Greece into its deep crisis.

proposed plenty of reform

Talk is cheap, how about implementing them?

On Tsipras if he wins this election then his is actually becoming a survivor and fairly smart at the political game. He dumped Varoufakis when he realised he was an obstruction and now if he wins the election he will have put the hard left of his party back in their box. He’s looking like a Greek Teflon Tony 😉

Talk is cheap, how about implementing them?

Talk is indeed cheap. The reforms they proposed were not accepted by the troika who insisted on a veto on “unilateral actions”. In addition to which they were spending night and day on the negotiations so they didn’t have breathing space for anything else.

It makes UK political news look less like panto and more like serious theatre.

Tsipras and Lafazanis can’t/couldn’t agree. Varoufakis now comments loudly and more freely from the wings. The left are spilt, foreign investment plans are derailed. So Tspiras clings on thanks to support from the centre-right….

And what was the democratic mandate? What was the purpose of the snap referendum?

The poor Greeks….what a mess, is there anything left of the can?

Policy making through the looking glass, EU style, once again.

Lets ignore the uncomfortable reality, as pointed out by the IMF, and just keep going with the same old clapped out, non-workable ideas, staggering from one crisis to the next

Its irrelevant who’s nominally ‘in power’ in Greece, when all the decisions that matter are being taken in Berlin and Brussels, and they’ve neither the desire, nor the imagination to actually address the real issue. A national economy that is imploding in slow motion

Imploding? Slow motion?

Binners, haven’t we already seen a very rapid and awful implosion? It’s a case study in economic and political mismanagement.

So Tspiras clings on thanks to support from the centre-right….

And you miss the point why Tspiras has been forced to call a general election. It is precisely because New Democracy has refused to back him beyond voting for the bailout deal. He can’t cling onto power any longer.

Binners, haven’t we already seen a very rapid and awful implosion? It’s a case study in economic and political mismanagement.

Indeed THM. Yet here we are again, proving Einsteins theory that the definition of madness is to continue to repeat the same experiment, and yet expect different results. Its clear to everyone but the muppets in Berlin and Brussels that to just loan more money, and demand more austerity, without any debt restructuring or relief, and expect it to (somehow miraculously) deliver economic growth is simply madness

Makes total sense to call an election so Tsipras can get a new manadate, or not. Syriza and Tsipras have overseen the exact opposite of what they said they would do signing up to a harsher package than previously in place whilst presiding over a €3-5bn (various estimates) loss in GDP as a result of negotiating stance which lead to the banks being shut. Also the banks are now bust as deposits dropped from €140bn to €100bn and the loans the banks have made are materially lower quality than they where 9 months ago. As such the Troika have demanded and Syriza agreed to a €50bn privatisation fund with the money needed to recapitalise the banks.

The IMF are playing it very smart, they know debt relief is off the table from the EU so by demanding it they know they’ll be able to step away from this latest round of gifts to the Greeks. I say gifts as these loans won’t be repaid. People are right to say it’s a political solution as no rational financier would have sent more good money after bad. Debt relief now was and is potically impossible as the Greeks have to demonstrate real reforms FIRST. They’ve had years to do and failed. The rational financial solution remains a Greek default with the lenders taking real assets immediately (eg ports, airports, utility companies) in lieu of their loans. Greece the leaves the euro and can devalue its new currency dramatically to return to competitiveness. Varoufakis said during the negotiations that a “New York Distressed Debt Fund” wouldn’t behave like the Troika and he’s quite right, they would have done what I just posted and most certainly not have agreed the new package the Trioka did

Cuts in pensions where not political. The Toika quite rightly wanted to see real budget (deficit) savings (improvements). Commiting to raise taxes on the basis it brings extra money in is just about worthless in Greece. The way to make is concrete cuts in spending. As soon as Syriza came to power tax receipts fell as evasion increased further.

My prediction is Varoufakis will not stand for re-election, he will swan off to what will now be a very lucrative paid “lecture circuit” tour whilst continuing to lob newsworthy quotes to the press – quotes but bums on paid for seats and money in his pocket. One day it may come to light where Varoufakis kept his money, it won’t have been in Greek banks.

And you miss the point

Comes with being remarkably think, as you point out.

But thanks, I had mistakenly thought it was related to the fact that a faction within his own party had voted against the rescue package, thereby wiping out the majority. Easy mistake to make I guess.

“Ideological betrayal….treachery….ashamed.” I wonder what Lafazanis was referring to?

The rational financial solution remains a Greek default with the lenders taking real assets immediately (eg ports, airports, utility companies) in lieu of their loans.

Why would Greece hand anything over – they are on the way to exit in this scenario.

So according to the EC official a snap election would not threaten the bailout or delay the reforms “demanded” by creditors – they are set in stone.

Learn the lessons of history!!

teamhurtmore – Member

I had mistakenly thought it was related to the fact that a faction within his own party had voted against the rescue package, thereby wiping out the majority. Easy mistake to make I guess.

Yep, and the fact that he can’t get support from the right-wing opposition as you mistakenly claimed :

teamhurtmore – Member

So Tspiras clings on thanks to support from the centre-right….

It’s not terribly complicated – Tsipras needs a general election and a fresh mandate precisely because he won’t receive support from the centre-right.

Here you are :

Although the majority of the Greek parliament backed the bailout deal last Friday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had to rely on opposition parties’ support to get the reforms approved. As such, his position as leader would be doubt if a confidence vote occurs.

Rival socialist party PASOK has already joined the main opposition party New Democracy and has refused to back Tsipras in any confidence vote, saying that it blames him and his coalition partner for leading Greece into yet another “onerous bailout.”

Greek Confidence Vote Casts Shadow Over Bailout

Spectacular confusion of cause and effect by jamba. Of course having destroyed the Greek economy with years of senseless austerity there is little chance of any loans being paid off in the near future, and stealing assets will not help anything. If the banks are in trouble it is because of the ECBs deliberate act of political terrorism to abdicate its responsibility as lender of last resort and withdraw support, artificially creating a bank run.

As a stopped clock is right occasionally, you may be correct that YV does not stand again. He has shown that there are limits to the value of actually being right and may not wish to put himself in the firing line of personal vituperation any more, and who can blame him.

Thank you Ernie. I had slipped into the dreaded historic present for a moment – I can see where your comment comes from. Precision is important isn’t it?

Precision is important isn’t it?

Well yes because if you want to ignore the small detail that Tsipras was forced to resign and trigger a general election because he lost his parliamentary majority you end up with muddled thinking like this :

So Tspiras clings on thanks to support from the centre-right….

I see thank you very much. (Must stop using historical present, must stop…..)

Muddled thinking – the burden of the remarkably thick?

You still seem confused. There hasn’t been a confidence vote in which Tsipras survived and clung on because of support from “the centre-right”.

I have already copied and pasted this :

PASOK has already joined the main opposition party New Democracy and has refused to back Tsipras in any confidence vote

And this :

As such, his position as leader would be doubt if a confidence vote occurs.

This is what would happen if there was a confidence vote. This is why Tsipras wants a general election.

DrJ the Greek economy has been FAKE for decades. It’s a painful process returning to normality where you spend what you earn not what you can borrow (and lie about). Of course GDP etc has dropped as so much of what went before was fake, borrowing stacks of money to pay wages and pensions. I don’t see any reason as to why Greece should be a richer country than Turkey or Slovakia.

Interesting piece in the Guardian published last night,ms peaks of a battered Tsipras asking for a new mandate after his mother of all U-turns.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/21/alexis-tsipras-greece-sell-out-broken-prime-minister

Jamba – The thing with internet discussion is that there is no point arguing with someone who is happy to claim that black is white. Even the IMF accept that their austerity programme made matters worse.

Why should Greece be richer than Turkey or Slovakia? How can anyone answer such a question? Why should any country be richer than another?

Jamba – The thing with internet discussion is that there is no point arguing with someone who is happy to claim that black is white. Even the IMF accept that their austerity programme made matters worse.

Why should Greece be richer than Turkey or Slovakia? How can anyone answer such a question? Why should any country be richer than another?
DrJ I can say exactly the same to you. Greece had the choice between “austerity” or. Ugh worse in 2010 and again now. Any solution would be worse for Greece as their economy was largely fake.

Where is Greece’s “value add” that justifies GDP / head higher than My example of Turkey or Slovakia ? It’s a backward (ie in need of major structural reforms) and corrupt economy living largely on debt. Nobody put Greece in that situation except the Greeks. The EU should not have bailed them out the first time and certainly not this time round