Wow, so yesterdays predictions of “boring sprint stage” didn’t exactly come to fruition did they??? Today, the focus turns from the big men to the little ones, heavyweights to the lightweights. We’re going into the hills.

After three consecutive stages being longer than 200km, a shorter one will lead to a brutal uphill finish. La Planche des belles filles is a 5.9km long climb with an average gradient of 8.5% and a very steep top end that was asphalted for the first visit of the Tour de France in 2012. It was meant to not be a one-off when the road to the charming little ski resort of the Haute-Saône became part of the route. It is the third visit in six editions indeed. Chris Froome took his first ever Tour de France stage win at La Planche des belles filles the year he helped Bradley Wiggins to triumph in Paris and he remains unbeaten up there as he didn’t reach that point in 2014, being forced to withdraw on stage 5. Vincenzo Nibali was the second stage winner of La Planche and that’s where he took the yellow jersey for good. Three years ago, Thibaut Pinot was second to the Italian. The Frenchman is the enfant du pays in the Haute-Saône. Having poorly recovered from the Giro d’Italia (4th overall), he purposely lost some time (almost four minutes) on stage 3 in order to have the freedom to make a breakaway before the final climb. At the difference of 2014, there’s no serious hill before the Planche des belles filles but a lot of false flat sections favor offensive riders.

The finish sounds interesting:

The Finish: A sharp right turn and the road soars. The climb is only 5.9km long and averages 8.5% which is steep enough. The reality is that the climb is frequently much steeper, the opening ramp is 14% and that red part of the climb on the profile? It includes a descent. After a long steep ramp to the first hairpin, things then ease with a variety of steep inclines and flatter sections. The finish sees the road get progressively steeper, culminating in final 300 metres where the road bends round to the line at 14% and a section at 20% to the line.

The contenders? Lets have a look:

This won’t be as decisive as 2014 when the race last visited this climb because that was a full-on mountain stage, today’s route is not as tough. Thibaut Pinot? Yes these are his home roads but his form isn’t great after the Giro to contest a straight summit finish, unlike 2014 when he was second behind Nibali. Instead tomorrow’s stage or Sunday and other mountainous routes suit him more right now.

Richie Porte (BMC Racing) is the prime pick. He’s in good form and showed it in Longwy. He’s also punchy for short climbs like this. But he’s far from a certainty, today is all about proving what he did in the Dauphiné and showing if he’s built on June.

Chris Froome or Geraint Thomas? Froome has won here before and what better way to ruin Richie Porte’s ambitions with a stage win and take the yellow jersey because he’s only 12 seconds down on GC and a 10 second time bonus awaits. It’ll be interesting to see what Thomas does, he won a 16 minute time trial, can he win a 16 minute climb? As ever Team Sky have domestiques who could captain other squads, watch Mikel Landa and Sergio Henao too.

Fabio Aru seems to be climbing very well. He should be at ease on the climb but how will cope with the fast approach and the fight for position? Astana have some tough bodyguards but still, thundering to the foot of the climb isn’t his ideal scenario. After a relatively slow (safe?) time trial Jacob Fuglsang was good in Longwy so should be up there but if he’s only just found winning ways a win here is a big ask.

Nairo Quintana (Movistar)? This is an explosive climb and that ‘s not his thing but people say he’s climbing very well and his light body is suited to the steep gradients and changes in pace.

Daniel Martin (Quick Step) is a good pick for a sharp climb, he can make searing accelerations and has a finishing kick that almost troubled Sagan in Longwy.

Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) promised to work on his climbing after the Dauphiné. An outright stage win here seems hard, the fast approach and then dropping or surging past everyone seems improbable for someone who can often track the very best uphill but has often won through audacious attacks rather than W/kg.

Rafa? Majka is the dark horse pick. Excluded from the pre-Tour predictions, I’m regretting not giving him at least a chainring now. The Pole is climbing very well and may get a little bit of room but he’s only 49 seconds down on GC. He’s unlikely to press the pedals harder but it would be quite the statement from Bora-Hansgrohe. Louis Meintjes (UAE Emirates) should be up the there but his team might struggle to place him and a win is hard to see. Finally the Orica-Scott pairing of Esteban Chaves and Simon Yates could show. Chaves ought to be good but his form is still in question. Yates has held the Strava KoM after living in the region as an amateur and we’ll see if his time loss in Longwy was an anomaly but neither seem like firm picks.

Can a breakaway stick? If it’s a yes/no question then no because the big teams will up the race to place their leaders into position on the approach so it’s hard for a move, plus many breakaway artists will surely have there eyes and legs set on this weekend’s mountain stages?

Nearly 200km in the breakaway for this fella, good work.

Text book Tour first week picture:

An elbow? A lean in? Deliberate? A racing incident?

Out, a real shame as he looked to be finding some form.

Would be great to see Quintana do something today and throw it out there.. Whether he can manage with valverde towing him?

If a breakaway sticks then I’d maybe expect a less explosive finish, those extra 10s are worth fighting for, money on the little Tasmanian for this one, he has the legs and the desire along with the need, stage win and 5-10s would do him very nicely and put a marker down to others, although stage 6is a longer one at 216km it’s also fairly flat so a good day to enter the red today, might stay up for this one.

Nice stage this, at least it’s not a boring sprint stage 😆

I’d love a breakaway, but I think this is an important stage, probably the most important in the first week, possibly setting the tone of next week. Up for grabs though, can’t see a favourites showdown, it’s too early for that. I can see gaps of 20s between them though, but that’s pretty much it. I’m rooting for a Dan Martin win, would love to see someone from Fortuneo lead it out until the last 3k.

The only thing guaranteed is Wanty and Fortuneo in a break with 40k to go.

No Sagan and no Cav, but the race goes on with the opportunity for some decent riders to shine given the go ahead.
Possible “bloke on a mamil bike” for the Green Jersey ? Or maybe Kristoff will be inspired to ride like he used too, or maybe Tony Martin to punt off the front for Green..

Hopefully G will continue in last year’s role of Froome’s shadow (there to give him a bike when needed) and won’t have to pull on the front. That way I reckon he’s got a good chance of keeping yellow until the weekend.

Too early for Froome to take yellow and have to defend ? Given the crashes so far I think Sky will wait and see what develops and if Froome can take the yellow and put a decent amount more time into the other GC contenders he will.

I’m very much hoping for this not to be a snoozefest, too often we’ve seen the GC guys marking eachother out and letting eachother watch as 2-3 other rocket away and take the stage.

I’m going for Aru blowing up after attacking 5km out to 3km, then watching for Dan Martin to do the same but closer….

Froome to win from Quintana by 7s with Porte in 3rd after looking like winning 500m out.

Expect G to keep yellow today.
Porte was looking super strong the other day though, wouldn’t surprise me if he takes a few seconds back.

Sky in yellow either with G keeping it or Froome slightly ahead. Given Froome is the team leader, if the sky boys are 1-2 as they get near to the line, Froome will be given the 10s bonus.

Contador and Rolland will launch flamboyant but doomed attacks at some point, Quintana will stick with Sky, he’ll have a few digs but will probably want to just be with the leaders to get the GC ordered a bit better.

The description from Inner Ring has put me right off my planned ride at the end of the month. I was going to do a loop covering a couple of the Ballons and the Planche des Belles Filles. Not so sure about the latter any more.

Sky are hoping for a break with no GC contenders in it… that way they don’t have to defend the yellow jersey.

Would be great to see Quintana do something today

been waiting years

Would be great to see Quintana do something today
been waiting years

😆

G for the win!

Empirical evidence says G will crash!

Pinot and Bardet to look at each other. Cummings steamroller past for the win. Well, maybe not.

ctk – Member

G for the win!
Posted 11 minutes ago # Edit
ferrals – Member

Empirical evidence says G will crash!
Posted 4 minutes ago # Report-Post

I predicted Cav yesterday so…

Actually I now think Contador for the win.

meh, my preditions are rubbish, so lets hold on to dreams.

Quintana and Contador to take advantage of a front of the pack mech problem, jumping across to the break and dragging Cummings with them.

Sky to blow up trying to keep froome in the game, G to reel them in and minimise losses..

no change to overall GC, but time gaps to come down.

My prediction is that Peter Sagan continues to ride, but disguised as his brother Juraj Sagan who is on the same team 8)

anyone fancy a quick sweepstake for first sighting of Didi the devil?

No money, just for fun, at what kilometre (100m sections)?

I’ll go for 155.3 – 155.4. Although if the stories are correct they’ll smell him at 146 onwards……

My prediction is that Peter Sagan continues to ride, but disguised as his brother Juraj Sagan who is on the same team

Could be anyone behind those goggles.

No we’ll not see him again. He’s gone for an early bath.

Always a treat to see Tommy Voeckler in the break.

I did particularly love the interview on Eurosport with Kittel who effectively summed it all up as “won’t someone think of the children” without a trace of irony. He is German though.

Well trying to work out if BMC are doing a turn to catch the break or keep the gap out there at 3 mins

I reckon they’r trying to catch it as Richie fancies a crack at the last climb. I imagine Sky are overjoyed that they’re not having to do all the work.

yeah down by 30s now, it’s his territory to have a crack there if they can keep it going for him, sure they will get a rest of the sprinters teams fancy a crack at the inter

Right, I’m leaving the Stage 4 thread behind. What’s done is done 🙁

Keeping the pace high on the flat-ish bits could be to put Quintana under a bit of pressure and take some zip out of his legs, as comparatively he’ll be working harder than the rest of them. Doesn’t really seem like his sort of climb though so maybe not, or maybe that’s the point. Best ask the BMC DS.

Funny how times have changed with regards the GC contenders. Days gone by they’d let the break go an some lucky domestique would get their time in yellow early on. Now they all seem to want yellow as early as possible, probably as it means not giving anyone else even the slimmest of time advantage. Today break is ideal. Let the break go and let one of those teams have the yellow for a while, strong teams who’d ride to keep it for as long as possible but not with serious GC threats.

Well BMC certainly looking like a team with intent.

Bit of a risk by BMC.. knackering out their team for a potential 10 seconds bonus for Porte.. could quite possibly be wearing themselves out to catch the break only for Porte to not have the legs, and someone else to take the win..

Given that, arguably, it was the lack of team members with him at the end that lost Porte the Dauphine, I’m not sure this is wise.

Although the Guardian points out that if the break made it they would snaffle all the bonus seconds and porte need them to eat into the time gap.

Also the psychological advantage of the winner here winning the tour in the past.

Bit of a risk by BMC.. knackering out their team for a potential 10 seconds bonus for Porte.

as the aussie coverage said, he can’t win by defending. Needs an attack to do it and they need to set it up.

Yeah I agree he needs to attack, but using up your entire team all day for a maximum gain of an extra 10 seconds (assuming he wins, and his biggest rivals finish 4th or lower) is a big risk.. there are a lot of riders who can win today, and if he’s not at the top of his game then he’s A) cost his team a lot and B) Handed those bonus seconds to his rivals.

Kind of thought they’d have eaten into the time of the breakaway up that climb.

More from the guardian:

The Guardian’s man on Le Tour writes: “I’ve been trying to figure out why BMC are riding and I wonder if it’s because Philippe Gilbert would probably get yellow from that break,” he says. “If he did that he could well hold it as far as the final week. That would mean Quickstep controlling the race for much of the time, meaning that Sky could conserve their strength. In a sense, it’s better for BMC that Sky have the jersey and all that goes with it than a strong team like QS do. It’s a thought anyway.”

Anyway time for me to hide from all form of internet/radio/tv in the hope I can watch the hightlights without knowing whats happened for the first time this tour!

Better idea than “Porte wants the yellow”

The other part is there are only 3 mountain top finishes this year, if that is where you can fire and do damage you kind of have to. They are not going to out drag race team Sky on the flat and the valley finishes needs a proper crack on the climb to make them work. It does look like an easier tour to defend rather than win this year.

And they have all woken up, game on and some new faces at the front

Well the break being hauled in at 10s/km which works for a catch, break then blown up and 2 for the finish? Reckon it could be on for a win from the peloton. Some big time gaps at the finish today

No TV for me to watch today, just Twitter and this place is making be excited.

text here if you need it
http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2017/us/live/aso/index.html

That has a virtual classification feature Mike – nice