Another day of hurt in the Alps, more fun to be had.

In the past few days, the early breakaways have been formed by a significant number of riders. It could be the case again from Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne to La Toussuire. Start and finishing location are less than twenty kilometers away but the unprecedented col de Chaussy, right from the gun, the grueling col de la Croix-de-Fer and the tricky downhill of the col du Mollard are just as many opportunities to turn the race upside down. As Chris Froome noted, there are a few races within the race. The most undecided is the hunt for the polka dot jersey. Joaquim Rodriguez and Romain Bardet are equal on points. They need to go on the attack again but GC contenders won’t let Bardet moving up again after he entered the top ten at the expense of his compatriot Warren Barguil. Frenchmen will be inspired by his triumph on stage 18. La Toussuire is where Pierre Rolland won a Tour de France stage in 2012, the day Chris Froome was held back by his sport director at the request of Bradley Wiggins. It’s also where Thibaut Pinot claimed stage 3 of the Tour des Pays de Savoie in 2009 prior to turning pro. In 2011, again at La Toussuire, he came second in stage 7 of the Critérium du Dauphiné… behind Rodriguez. Don’t murderers always come back on the scene of their crimes?…

And the contenders from Inrng

The Contenders: when Chris Froome race here last time in the Tour de France he wanted to ride away for the stage win in La Toussuire but team orders told him to pace Bradley Wiggins. Now he’s the one giving the orders. He’s been the strongest in the race and is backed by the strongest team in the race. Nairo Quintana is the other obvious choice, the Colombian has been testing Chris Froome and we’ll see what he tries today, it’s just possible he goes for a long raid but more likely he sits tight and tries for the stage win and with it a chance to take a few seconds. The climb to La Touissuire is long and the flattening slopes near the top make it better to attack on the steeper parts with at least 5km to go.

Both Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali are attacking but their moves have been closely marked and if Contador tries for the stage win then Nibali might chase because he wants the glory and so they cancel each other out. Alejandro Valverde was in trouble on the Glandon yesterday, a short term problem or a real sign of fatigue? If it was just a missing energy gel then he can still deploy that sprint, especially if the lead riders end up cancelling each other out like on the Plateau de Beille.

Can a breakaway stay away? Sky won’t want to chase too hard from the start and there’s only Movistar to share the controlling duties. Thibaut Pinot could try again but he paid for his efforts two days ago in yesterday’s stage and could sit out today’s racing to be stronger tomorrow, ditto Pierre Rolland who fought hard for second place yesterday. Otherwise look to Rigoberto Uran, Wilco Kelderman, Simon Yates or Rafal Majka for strong riders in the third week who have been climbing well but missed the move yesterday.

And Lunge’s ever inaccurate prediction. I thought Froome really struggled yesterday, he held on but I don’t think it was easy for him. For this reason, I think he’ll go for it today, not long range but he’ll try and put time into to Quintana. And I think he’ll succeed.

Dan bloody Marrrrrtin !

🙄

(Stage 19)

is GENIEZ still riding? (actually, might literally still be riding, finishing yesterday’s stage 🙄 )

I think Froome will be attacked today lots, yes even more by the GC riders. The only one who might get him is Quintanna but he doesnt have as good a support team as Froome so i think he’ll fail. I dont think he has much to loose in attacking as every time he goes Froomy will have to chase so both would be equally tired tomorrow on Duez. Should be another exciting day.

Bugger, err, mods,can yoiu change that to “stage 19” please? Anyone mind reporting it to alert them? Thank you.

Finishing breakfast in Monaco,warm breeze blowing across the yachts by the hotel and it’s already HOT down here in the south.* However, that heat is as nothing to the crazed fervour of the French press! “ON A GAGNÉ, ON A GAGNÉ”.

As if they’ve won the whole race or something.
Fervour aside, the coverage in l’Equipe is excellent.

* 8)

Capn Flashgit, surely it reads UN a gagne ? 😀

Was indeed a smashing stage yesterday for the French, enjoyed that Bardet win.

Today, well it’s got to be a GC day. I’d expect to see a fearsome pace set up the Croix de Fer and any breaks reeled in.

Be interesting to see how much Movistar want the win with two podium places at risk. Valverde does look a bit vulnerable. Contador nothing to lose but seems tired.

A bit predictable but Froome to follow all the attacks and then go for the win (having missed out on this stage a few years ago.)

what happened to the velogames league table updates?

here you go. that’s me at the top by the way. 🙂

1. The Froome Wagon – Paul B – 5135
2. i’m off to boat jail for a good sleep – spawnofyorkshire – 4944
3. Alan’s Deep Bath – Andy – 4843

Be interesting to see how much Movistar want the win with two podium places at risk. Valverde does look a bit vulnerable. Contador nothing to lose but seems tired.

Boardman noted yesterday on ITV4 highlights how much Sky might pick up on any perceived weakness from Valverde and try and shift G up into podium, that does now seem to be one of their stated ambitions.

Can’t see them abandoning CF but if the opportunity to put Valverde under pressure is there, they may well see what they can force.

I’m sticking my neck out and predicting Froome for the stage

Quintana 30s down the road

Valverde way down

G to go into 3rd as he drags the rest up

G attacking would be a good move, either then he gets free or else softens then up so Froome goes. However, he has not shown that he has that sort of acceleration; he’s more in the wiggo/evans mold, and it’s not Sky’s style being too risky.

[baseless predictions]Froome to lose at least a minute to Quintana today, Contador to move into 3rd after Valverde cracks.[/baseless predictions]

I would love Brailsford to let G push for a podium, the guy deserves it, he is becoming my new Jens particularly after Tony Martin crashed.

With Froome being able to handle himself in the GC, Porte could look after him with Roche.

Go on David, put a spanner in the works, give G the nod and **** the conservative plan, the rest of the GC contenders are broken (except Quintana)

Is todays stage the one they used for the Etape?

this, 100%. On previos threads I’ve mentioned my wild dreams of G being allowed to attack

I reckon we’ll see Majka in a break, ostensibly to pick up KOM points and help Contador late on but he’ll ride away and take the stage. Neither Sky, Movistar nor Taxoff will try and force the pace till late, so “the heads of state” will be together until the foot of the final climb, by which time the break will have suceeded.

Contador normally finishes GTs strongly whilst Valverde falls away, so he might force his way onto the podium (sorry G – I think he’ll go down, not up). But he might save it all for an iconic win on the Alpe tomorrow.

Get the feeling that Movistar would settle for 2 podium places and won’t gamble – bit disappointing from the so-called “best climber of his generation”, but we have to remember he may look like an old man, but he’s only 25 (and, like Sagan, burdened with over-expectation). But, if they do try, I’ve got a feeling Sky might be vulnerable.

Then again, something completely differant might occur – even a “boring” tour is completely unpredictable.

On previos threads I’ve mentioned my wild dreams of G being allowed to attack

G on that subject over at velonews.

Must be a few on here waiting for this, should be a good read…

Is todays stage the one they used for the Etape?

It is indeed. A couple of mates rode it. Said the Glandon / Croix de Fer was a log jam of people pushing bikes and pulled up suffering from cramp! My mate’s Strava comment, and he’s quite a handy rider…

Damn hot, and the hardest bike ride I have ever done! the last 2km of the Col d’Glandon is almost unrideable.

Probably be proven wrong, but don’t think Contador is fussed about being 3rd – he’d prefer to attack from way out on the 1% chance that he gains minutes on everyone à la Landis 2006 / himself in the Vuelta in 2012, rather than ride conservatively and move up a place or two.. it’s win or nothing for him..

I can’t see G attacking, with Porte sick still he’s the only Sky rider that’s been able to stay with Froome late into a stage. They can’t risk having G ahead and Froome with no team mates behind in the GC group.

I reckon it will be Sky or Movistar setting a fast pace to the bottom of the Croix de Fer (I think Sky will up the early tempo to try and avoid having a large breakaway form or at least close it down before the CdF). Then there’s going to be fireworks on the CdF; Valverde, Contador and Nibali all attacking early and Froome/Quintana marking each other. All depends then if one of them can drop Froome before the top, if not it will likely be a Froome win from an attack on the last climb. If they do then it could be the first time Froome is put under real pressure (I don’t think G will still be with him at the top of the CdF) and could be a case of limiting his losses and holding Quintana to a minute or two.

Boardman noted yesterday on ITV4 highlights how much Sky might pick up on any perceived weakness from Valverde and try and shift G up into podium, that does now seem to be one of their stated ambitions.

Valverde to look like he’s struggling to encourage Thomas to push himself too hard, at the behest of Froome, leaving Froome to be attacked by a revived Valverde and Quintana.

There are some grumpy can tweets going round #chickenpoxtour

I understand on flat stages with the wind, leadout etc. but what’s the significance of teammates during mountain stages?

There’s still an aero benefit to drafting on the less steep uphill bits, plus the psychological effect of someone to set the pace and follow their wheel.

Also to minimise time lost to mechanicals by swapping a wheel/bike if necessary. eg Sagan gave up his bike to Contador after he crashed on the descent a couple of days ago.

Steven bloody KRUIJSWIJK’s up front and damn, I’ve called him up front for the last few days in the bumps and he’s been nowhere! Today? damn if he’s in the break and on the front…

Grrr

And it’s pouring down too!

And Berties gone off the front, so too Nibbs.

And it’s pouring down too!

Where? Not where they’re currently riding.

Peloton looking pretty thin already.

Sky are in trouble here, lost a few people, GT struggling, this is going to be a seriously tough day in the office from Froome I reckon.

That was a pretty brutal start. Froome only got Poles with him now I think. Nibali with Scarponi. Quintana looks to have the most team mates with him. Would assume there’d be a bit of a regrouping before the Glandon, Movistar probably the only team with enough numbers to really push the pace.

there are going to be some serious time differences today. looks like the other guys want to isolate Froome. Not a bad start in that respect…

In that climb about 5k from the top, poring down it was.. ok short downpour but still.. thought it might have carried over to the other side of the mountain but it hasn’t.
All descending now on new tarmac..

Van Baarle doing a touch of off roading there

Froome, what a gent. Makes sure he’s clear of the bunch before launching his snot rockets.

Oooh Jono’s been making brioche 🙂

3 sky team with froome now, plus a few more a few seconds back

Yes, now that breakaway has got itself established, it’s all settled down a bit now. Pretty manic start though with everyone fighting to get to that lead group!

Not a bad place to hold a stage this, damn lovely countryside and mountains. 8)

I can’t help but think the message from Froome and GT lately that the teams all well and feeling good is a bluff. Health issues in Sky I think.

Oi, G what are you doing at the back?!
Get back up there.

G’s cooked. Not going to be his day today.