Morning all, another day in the Alps awaits us today, details below, as ever your thoughts and views are appriciated.

During stage 17, Chris Froome’s direct adversaries have given a taste of their intentions to attack him from very far out. The yellow jersey holder expects to be put under pressure again. He’ll be on the rollers prior to the start in Gap because that’s a brutal one with the 6-km long ascent to col Bayard right from the gun. Simon Geschke must have inspired many riders who aren’t used to get the honors at the Tour de France. A breakaway is expected to take shape on the Route Napoleon, two hundred years after the French Emperor chose this way to return to power after his first retirement on the Elba island. It’s a road for courageous fighters but the worst is to come after exiting it, going to the col du Glandon through the category 2 col de la Morte and its tricky downhill. The ascent to the Glandon is officially 21.7km long. In reality, from Séchilienne, it’s 47 kilometres of climbing. It seems like never ending. The summit is almost with 40km to go. After that, there’ll be the scenic and unprecedented Lacets de Montvernier: the last chance of the day for Quintana and co to attack Froome.

The profile of the day ahead:

And the contenders from Inrng:

The Contenders: who is in good form, didn’t go in the breakaway yesterday, climbs well and can finish with a good sprint? Today should see a breakaway stay clear and if someone can meet all these criteria they’ve got a good chance. Any early move will get thinned on the Col du Glandon and then the hairpins of Montvernier are selective in a punchy way.

Joaquim Rodriguez seems a good choice, he’s been going in the breakaways and today is polka-dot points a plenty with the Glandon and then the Lacets as a launchpad. Jacob Fuglsang was second to Rodriguez on the Plateau de Beille and is a big name contender but has a small list of wins to his name.

Dan Martin and Romain Bardet have the engines to ride away from any breakaway companions up the Glandon and both are faster in the sprint that everyone thinks; Bardet had a bad day yesterday finding himself in an hypoglycemic haze early in the stage, as long as he’s recovered he should be fresh. Pierre Rolland had problems too with “digestive troubles” yesterday and this could be a problem that lasts more than a day or at least takes a toll today. Serge Pauwels has been climbing very well and a puncture thwarted his chances at the foot of the Col de Manse. If he’s still there at the end then maybe Alexis Vuillermoz can use his high intensity power on the Lacets.

Will the GC riders take it steady? Perhaps Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali will be motivated to try something because they have nothing to lose. But they’ll find it hard, any accelerations on the Glandon will be matched by the others. Alejandro Valverde won’t want to let them go because he’s worried about his third place, the same for Geraint Thomas in fourth who has to follow Valverde and with this Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will follow… in theory.

So more GC stalemate, another successful breakaway and a big Grupetto again? I think so, but will it be without excitement as well? Surely, surely Movistar have to attack soon? Surely Contador has to try something at some point as well, maybe Gesink and Nibali too.

However, I think today will be quiet, I think tomorrow it will go off big style but today may just be a little subdued. I hope I’m wrong.

The descent of the Col de la Morte could be decisive today, not as fast as the Allos but pretty technical

It could certainly have an effect if there are crashes but it’s probably too far out to make a big difference to the top of the GC otherwise, I reckon.

I could certainly see AC and or Nibali making an all or nothing attack on the DH of Glandon with the view that the last climb is short enough to be able to stay away on if they can gain a couple of minutes.

It’s worth noting though for all the talk of AC and Nibali being good descenders, AC has crashed the last few tours when attacking or just pushing DH and CF had no real problems sticking with Nibali yesterday.

I’m reckoning on a net GC stalemate (attacks but nothing major sticking) with a breakaway winning.

Yesterday I went for no change to GC and there was (although not the top 3)

Yesterday sky were not looking as strong as movistar or tinkoff IMO. They did get Porte to somehow appear at a crucial moment (with a smile on his face) which although planned could not have worked much better; but then why didn’t they use Roche on the last climb when Froome was in the movistar sandwich?

The attacking downhill is not really working, Froome seems able to follow anyone who does not fall off.

I think that the best chance for mov/tinkoff/ast is to try to isolate Froome early and attack on Glandon. So this is my prediction. However I suspect that it will not work and Froome will hang on.

I predict a repeat of yesterday, different break away players but a repeat.

Thanks Lunge, I looked earlier an saw no thread thought I’d do it today but had an 8am to go too.. 🙄

The early pat of this is the hardest, forget the Glandon that’ll be for those that survive today by getting in a small break and legging it early and taking 8-9mins. Of course it’ll consist of my Bretagne Sache boys and Krujs’ie had a good day yesterday so he’ll be there. Also, now we 3 of Mov’s boys are heading to Sky (Whooop!, my old mates from Euskatel!!!!) will be keen to show face and when Valv’s kicks them hard I expect Mov to be up front. True enough I think Quinty showed he’s gaining on Froomie in a fitness and physiological battle so I’m bigging him up for the win over the Glandon, but my overall stage winner will be Cigar Boy or (I know…) Dan Martin, they’ll love this terrain.

But, but this stage is a hard one 😯

I tend to get into the office just before 8am bikebouy so I just do it then. Quick bit of copy and paste and Bob’s your uncle.

+1 they won’t drop Froome on the Glandon descent.

I think the GC guys will wait for tomorrow. Quintana may have a small pop on the last ramp but the Glandon is too far from the finish.

That last descent is very close to the finish. Could be a mad dash like the one into Gap (if the race isn’t already in shreds by then anyway).

The descent of the Col de la Morte on today’s route is not in my opinion particularly technical. At least not compared to other descents they have done and will do. It’s a good road. Mostly forested and a well traveled road. Nothing like the Col d’Allos, and nothing like the descent off the Glandon they will do later on. This is just my opinion, but is based on actually knowing it, having traveled and biked on it several times.

I’m going for Sammy sanchez for today, no idea how his form is but he doesn’t have a team leader to worry about anymore

I predict carnage today. The descent of the Glandon is wild.

Anybody seen a weather report?

A bit of rain could cause havoc on those descents.

Well I had today pegged for Movistar’s attack in one of the earlier threads so I have to go with that. I’m going to say Dan Martin again for the win…

I predict carnage today. The descent of the Glandon is wild.

I rode it a couple of years ago. Not for the faint-hearted…

Just did a bit of youtube “recon” of the glandon descent and other than the fact it looked like half of the sort-of-maintained alpine road descents you find, I was struck by how much some riders on sportives bimble downhill. I saw it last year in Belgium but as there were few long descents it was never that obvious but, wow, there’s a lot of nervous descenders on those videos. One bloke passes over 500 people going down Glandon (so he says)

Yeah, but you have to remember that not everyone is a STW hero god with the descending prowess to match…

The final climb up the Lacets de Montvernier looks interesting – real mountain goat stuff.

Usual suspects in the break I reckon. Sagan for the green points, Purito for the spotty points. Dan M with Ryder for company. Whoever wins will be in the break. Would be nice to see Sammy Sanchez get in there.

The final climb up the Lacets de Montvernier looks interesting – real mountain goat stuff.

😯

From inrng…

The Lacets de Montvernier are this year’s novelty, a 3.4km climb with 18 hairpin bends. It’s steep, narrow and each bend is tight, you climb from hairpin to hairpin like some manic hill rep session.

that looks pretty cool (even allowing for the camera tilt)

Yeah, but you have to remember that not everyone is a STW hero god with the descending prowess to match…

apparently all mountain bikers descend better than roadies 🙄

Good point 😉

Froome started out mtbing FWIW

Yeah, but you have to remember that not everyone is a STW hero god with the descending prowess to match…

I’m not exactly quick but I’m not a nervous descender unless it gets stupidly steep (23% gradient near here has me in that sort of area). Just often surprised how a downhill gradient with a drop on the sides scares people unreasonably.

I’m not exactly quick but I’m not a nervous descender unless it gets stupidly steep (23% gradient near here has me in that sort of area). Just often surprised how a downhill gradient with a drop on the sides scares people unreasonably.

I think there’s a tipping point, for me Snakes pass is fine in either direction, wizzing down, taking racing lines, keeping up with the motorbikes sometimes. Winnats pass on the other hand I’m in constant fear of going OTB, or the fork snapping under braking it feels so steep. Seeing a cameras flatten everything I’d take any footage of sportives with a pinch of salt, and one mans “decending god overtaking 500 riders”, is another mans Barguil and some lost Oakleys.

Kabooom.. they’re off.. Cigar boy, Rolland and Arridondo are off in haste as they try to get up the first bumps and put some team cars in the middle to spoil the view. Clearly Rod’s is out for the spotty dress, hope he gets it. 😀

The final climb up the Lacets de Montvernier looks interesting – real mountain goat stuff.

Some good footage of it here shot from a quadcopter:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=160qwlWGyWU

No spectators allowed as it’s too narrow but that may affect the race too – any mechanical and it could take ages for the team car to get there. Having a team-mate or two (or the neutral service moto) nearby will be critical to avoid losing masses of time to a puncture.
That may also affect the tactics in the run up to that final climb as everyone looks to keep a team-mate nearby.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racing/tour-de-france/the-lacets-de-montvernier-the-tours-new-legendary-climb-183638

Looks bloody awesome.

The full list of 29 escapees is as follows:
Jakob Fuglsang (Astana), Romain Bardet, Jan Bakelants, Christophe Riblon (Ag2r-La Mondiale), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ), Roman Kreuziger, Michael Rogers (Tinkoff-Saxo), Winner Anacona, Jonathan Castroviejo (Movistar), Damiano Caruso, Rohan Dennis (BMC), Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Soudal), Georg Preidler (Giant-Alpecin), Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha), Michael Matthews, Simon Yates (Orica-GreenEdge), Pierre Rolland, Cyril Gautier, Romain Sicard, Thomas Voeckler (Europcar), Julian Arredondo, Bob Jungels (Trek), Ruben Plaza (Lampre-Merida), Andrew Talansky, Dan Martin (Cannondale-Garmin), Stef Clement (IAM Cycling), Jan Barta (Bora-Argon 18) and Serge Pauwels (MTN-Qhubeka).

That lot will stay out all day, they’ve 3;30 on the main group and it’ll be from this we get the winner of the stage IMO. Look whose in there!
8)

Europcar fancying this one by the looks of it.

Purito looking to wear the polka dots in his own right after today?

i enjoyed this re alpe d’huez:

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/ng-interactive/2015/jul/23/tour-de-france-the-climb-of-alpe-dhuez-interactive

I’d almost quite slightly maybe like to ride up that !

Simon Yates here we go

There are some people in that break to trouble the top 10

No Sky in the break ?

Strange

No Sky in the break ? Strange

I’m not sure that’s so strange – RP didn’t seem to be a massive help yesterday afetr dropping back

Froome may just want towing to the bottom of teh Glandon and then fend for himself if need be. No Van Garderen so no likely help from BMC if an attack goes

There are some people in that break to trouble the top 10

Talansky, Bardet and Rolland threatening Barguil’s place. So perhaps we’ll see Thomas and Barguil working together? 🙂

Renshaw’s abandoned, that’s got to hit Cavendish’s chances in Paris.

I’m not exactly quick but I’m not a nervous descender unless it gets stupidly steep (23% gradient near here has me in that sort of area). Just often surprised how a downhill gradient with a drop on the sides scares people unreasonably.

Go and ride Glandon, at speed in a large group, then report back.

.

gwarn AC!