Morning campers. We’re still in the hills today, what fun will this bring?

Stage 16 is the first one fully in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region after Chris Froome already noted on the way to Le Puy-en-Velay that the race was on Romain Bardet’s territory. Approximately one banner out of two on the road sides says “ça va Bardet”. Phonetically, it means “sparks will fly”, literally it means “Bardet goes well”. After a well deserved rest day in the Auvergne, Bardet’s homeland, the Tour will head to Rhône-Alpes [there were two different regions until last year] where the leader of AG2R-La Mondiale studied cycling – and many other topics from law to business and communication… Approaching the Alps, the expectations are high in the hosting country for a Frenchman to win the Tour thirty-two year after Bernard Hinault. Before two big mountain stages with the Galibier and the Izoard, stage 16 offers a transition that can suit attackers or sprinters. It’s hard enough at the beginning to make a break but the downhill part throughout the beautiful Ardèche province and the flat finale in the Rhône valley favours the teams who are still keen for a bunch gallop. André Greipel is yet to win a stage and Marcel Kittel eyes the all-time record of eight victories in a single Tour de France. To achieve that goal, the green jersey holder can’t miss any of the three potential sprints in Romans-sur-Isère, Salon-de-Provence and Paris.

My immediate thought when I looked at the profile was “Cummings”, we’ll see if Inrng agree (spoiler, no, they don’t).

The Contenders: a sprint? In times past there’s a good chance a stage like this would go to the breakaway riders but the sprinters teams seem to have the race locked down and perhaps the hillier nature of the course, whether the Ardèche plateau or the uphill run to the line will only tempt some teams to back their sprinters again in the hope that Marcel Kittel is huffing and puffing too much all day to win. Still the maillot vert seems to be in rude health and so he’s an obvious pick. André Greipel can win from an uphill sprint, see his win earlier this year in Paris-Nice for example (pictured) but his form is still not convincing and perhaps Lotto-Soudal will send the likes of Tony Gallopin in the for cover? Other names to think of are Edvald Boasson Hagen who is suited to the uphill finish while Nacer Bouhanni‘s form is improving too after being on antibiotics and he won a stage of Paris-Nice here too, albeit with a different, flatter finish. Michael Matthews should find the finish isn’t steep enough but he’ll be sprinting anyway for points while Trek-Segafredo will back John Degenolb.

And a few (vaguley) interesting pics:

The GC battle.

Cav’s Cervelo, filth.

Aru’s Argon 18, also filth.

Just the last 30 mins i need to watch today then 🙂

Apart from the little lump at Saint Felicien, that’s a near 50km downhill off the Col du Rouvey!
That looks fun. 🙂

I’m punting for Degenholb today.
He’s been there or thereabouts, seems to have settled in at Trek, boosted by the overall performance of the team I think they’re on a bit of a roll.
And I like him.
Cummings? Y’know what.. I would have put him there and I do wonder if he can work with EBH, but I get the impression he works better with Powels.. so if either of these two are in a break over the last big bump then either could win.

I’m openly punting for a Bardet TdF overall win, if AG2r can keep up the momentum and stick mental spokes in Sky’s roadblock I’d like, really like a French Podium winner. A few hard stages to go yet I know, but what a story it would make.

If Bardet wins overall he’ll be French president by this time next year. Love to see it especially given how his team have animated the race but i think sky will be too clinical

I see Greg Lemond talking to media and saying Landa should now sack off loyalty to yellow jersey and race for himself! States that staying loyal to Bernard Hinault in 1985 was worst decision he made.

Tommy V will attack from the flag. FACT.

Long range raider stage today. Cummings could be in with a shot.

Be good to see Degenklob get the stage today but he’s not quite been the same since the accident. Tough to see past Kittel in a bunch sprint today despite the lumpy start.

Be great for Bardet to win the Tour. This year’s route seems to be made for him. Though after stage 15 it’s looking less likely that he’ll be able to get the time he needs on Froome.

Sunweb and DD to set the pace and drop Kittel? Eddy Boss FTW.

I can just imagine Landa looking at Froome and thinking I could easily put a minute and half into him…especially with a bit of help from Alberto, not sure it would be great for the race though.

I see Greg Lemond talking to media and saying Landa should now sack off loyalty to yellow jersey and race for himself! States that staying loyal to Bernard Hinault in 1985 was worst decision he made.

Source…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cycling-france-lemond-idUSKBN1A21G5

The media are certainly trying to stir this one up! I can’t see it happening without the go ahead from the team. Popping the earpiece out for a cheeky stage win is one thing, but doing it to win the Tour is entirely another. Will be interesting to see what happens if Froome does have a problem though and Sky are put in a position where they could lose the Tour or win it with Landa. Or what would happen if they get Landa up the road again and have the opportunity to swap Froome’s slender lead for a bigger Landa lead. I’d be surprised if it’s not all been decided in advance, you’d not leave those decisions to the heat of the moment.

As for who’s the strongest, I don’t think we’ve really seen much to split them yet. The airstrip finish was just a silly steep lottery. Froome’s stage 15 recovery was really the first proper test. Think we’ll have to wait for the Galibier and Izoard to see what cards they’re all holding 🙂

He looks mega happy..

And like he could do with a shower, a pint and a pie.

I really can’t bring myself to like Cav’s green paintjob. It looks like someone took a rattlecan to it.

Degenkolb and Kristoff have not been bargains for their teams in 2017 have they? In fact, Trek haven’t really done a great job with their marquee signings over winter full stop (Tony Martin has been a bit of a bust too).

Supposed to be very windy in the valleys today, could be a long day for aru and bardet

Pippa’s musings…

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/tour-de-france-can-the-challengers-end-chris-froomes-reign/

I see Greg Lemond talking to media and saying Landa should now sack off loyalty to yellow jersey and race for himself! States that staying loyal to Bernard Hinault in 1985 was worst decision he made.

I can’t believe Greg has said that. I generally like the guy despite him being pretty painful to watch in his pundit role, seems like Eurosport have had to move him around a lot to try and find somewhere where he fits better.
Anyway, for him to say that quoting 85 is a pretty poor show. Fair enough he could have won that Tour but then Hinault did the exact thing to him that he’s saying Landa should do and kept nicking off the front in the ’86 Tour, and Greg has moaned like a drain about it ever since. It’s in books, there’s been a documentary about it, he apparently didn’t speak to Hinault for years afterwards.
Seems to me like he’s mostly just saying stuff to try and be controversial.

Whilst I quite like Greg, I find his mental image placement is still in 1986. Too much “when I was, when we..” he’s a decent commentator for the odd section here and there, but he needs to extract himself from shoulder pads and shell suits.

Cross winds forecast by the sounds of it, and we all love a good echelon. It’ll be a stressful day on the peloton today, I imagine Sky will fancy exploiting the lack of power in Astana.

and Greg has moaned like a drain about it ever since

🙂 It does get a bit tedious.

we all love a good echelon

I love a good echelon. In fact, I’m having one right now.

Southerly winds, could make it interesting, everyone will want to be on the front.

I can’t believe Greg has said that. I generally like the guy despite him being pretty painful to watch in his pundit role, seems like Eurosport have had to move him around a lot to try and find somewhere where he fits better.

I can’t stand Greg Lemond, precisely for the reason that he’s still banging on about stuff that happened in the 80’s and 90’s. Same in the Liggett/Sherwen days, it was all about “when I rode…” and a bunch of tired old cliches that got their annual airing from Sherwen’s suitcase of courage.

Fortunately with the excellent coverage now provided by ITV4, I don’t need EuroSport.

SSW wind forecast means these could be the interesting bits. But who knows with this tour so far!

article about cavs bike here

http://enve.com/journal/mark-cavendishs-special-tour-bike/

I watched the last stage on ITV and have to say the commentary team were excellent.

Landa doesn’t seem like the sort of guy that’ll ignore team orders as he seems very professional – and his reputation and marketability will be enhanced by how he’s going about things for Sky.

I watched the last stage on ITV and have to say the commentary team were excellent.

Barring the minor annoyance of the adverts I think the ITV4 coverage is very good indeed. They clearly know their stuff and they have great access to current and former riders who they clearly get on with. For example since Cav withdrew he’s been on the phone with them a few times and gives an interesting view of things.

Landa doesn’t seem like the sort of guy that’ll ignore team orders as he seems very professional – and his reputation and marketability will be enhanced by how he’s going about things for Sky.

But he has a genuine chance to win the TDF…it’s not like Sky are a well liked team.

Reckon Aru is going to have to hang on to someone’s echelon today, such is the lack of tactics in his depleted team.

In the final week I think Bardet has a strong hand, and Uran is still the dark horse to look out for. Wednesday’s stage is brutal and I wish I could watch that live, followed by the finish on the Izoard the next day. It’s going to be a fascinating last week.

EDIT – Agree that the ITV4 coverage is very good, much prefer Ned and David as a commentary team, and i’ve always liked Gary Imlach’s style.

But he has a genuine chance to win the TDF…it’s not like Sky are a well liked team.

He has no chance whatsoever without the support of his team.

Well if the sidewinds do make their presence felt then I think the teams with classics riders can make a big difference.
I think Luke Rowe and Kwiatkowski coud earn their money today. Not to mention that it could save Dan Martins tour if QuickStep turn on the gas and boss the crosswinds as they are likely to do. Depending on just how bad the winds are, Dan could be on the podium by this evening.
I think Aru, Uran and to a lesser extent Bardet could be put in serious trouble as they either don’t have the team around them to get them to the front and keep them there when it all kicks off or, in Bardet’s case, the team is pretty heavily climbing focussed and I’m not sure they will be able to hold it together in full on echelons.
Hopefully we’ll find out. 😈

I’m really hoping for some full on cross wind chaos today with Aru on the wrong side of it with Bardet moving up to second on GC.

The TdF proggy on Radio5 last night were discussing the upcoming alpine stages and expecting Bardet to do very well, it’s on AG2r’s local stomping ground. The pundits were still expecting a Froome overall victory though.

ITV4 coverage is good, except for that naff watch ad and the slow-mo beardy biker.

Shame Landa won’t be staying at Sky. Think he’d be a good successor to Mr Froome in a year or so. Throw him the Giro or Veulta for 2018 and le tour the year after, assuming Froome goes for next year’s tour.

I wonder if Sky have any policy on keeping a ‘british’ rider as leader?

Aru’s lawn needs some attention, judging by the pic in the OP.

THe thing for Landa is that he was given 2 runs at the Giro and it didn’t work out for him. That’s not his fault or Sky’s fault, it’s just bad luck.
As far as I can see if he goes to Movistar it’ll just be the same show in different colours. He’ll get a run at the Giro (and possibly the Vuelta) and have to back up Quintana who’ll be focussing on the Tour. He won’t be any better off as Valverde will be trying to sneak another Vuelta or looking after his own interests (assuming he comes back from the crash!)
I know it’s a Spanish team etc. etc. but I still think he’d be much better off at Trek as they have a definite gap in their lineup that he would fill and I think Contador is much more likely to back him up than Valverde or Quintana would. Movistar have much more form with infighting than Sky do.

if there are crosswinds Quickstep will smash this to bits. shame Gilberts out.

Dan martin must be looking forward to today.

De Gendt, Chavanel and De Gants(?) (the inevitable Wanty rider) off the front, Cummings has bridged to join them

Winds looking very strong

This is going to be a good day

#StageForSteve