in Lunge’s absence, here’s today’s thread

Yellow jersey up for grabs?
The Tour de France leaves Andorra after the first rest day. The next major appointment for the GC contenders is on Thursday at the Mont Ventoux. A traditional tactic by great cycling champions consists of letting the yellow jersey go for a day or two to please the crowds and make a few friends in the peloton. The last one to do so was Vincenzo Nibali who made a gift to Tony Gallopin and his French fans two years ago. Chris Froome might be well inspired to do so as well, as Paris is still a long way away and the daily defense of the yellow jersey is very taxing. Therefore, riders who are between five and fifteen minutes down on GC should try and get into the breakaway that will be probably formed over the Port d’Envalira, where a 5000-euros prime will be awarded as the Souvenir Henri-Desgrange in the name of the founder of the Tour de France because it’s the highest summit of this year’s race. Sébastien Reichenbach (FDJ) and Emmanuel Buchmann (Bora-Argon 18) are the kind of riders who could be allowed by Team Sky to go for a short interim on top of the results sheets. It’s a day for attackers anyway. The côte de Saint-Ferréol with 7km to go is set to split a potential long breakaway. In 2005, neo pro Simon Gerrans took his first result at the Tour de France via the same finale as he finished third in Revel behind Paolo Savoldelli and Kurt Asle Arvesen. He’s one of the numerous candidates for a stage win there again.

And from inrng, the contenders

The Contenders: Peter Sagan is the deductive pick, what ever the scenario the man with the second best hair on the race after the LCL podium lion is capable of winning. He can go in the breakaway if there’s a move that sticks, he can cope if the crosswinds blow and if nothing happens then he can deal with the final climb especially if his team make life hard for the sprinters. As you can see though a win needs lots of the conditional.

Bryan Coquard is a contender to get over the climb to St Ferréol unscathed and then surf his way through the field to a win. Michael Matthews has had a quiet time so far but could emerge here.

The bookmakers have the likes of Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel at 20-1 today when on a normal sprint stage you’d be lucky to get 4-1. It’s not a flat sprint finish but those odds seem high. If Sagan does go in the breakaway there’s a good chance Dimension Data and Etixx-Quickstep work to bring him back in order to deny him points at the finish first and set up their sprinters next. Edvald Boasson Hagen will be one to watch, he’s been helping Cavendish so far but will he get his chance here? Normally yes but with Cavendish in green surely he’s the perfect helper. André Greipel and Alexander Kristoff are both searching for a win and normally today’s hill would tilt the odds to them against Cavendish and Kittel but neither seem to be offering much.

Otherwise who goes in the breakaway? Simon Gerrans (Orica-BikeExchange) rode into Revel in 2005 from a breakaway and lost out, Sep Vanmarcke (Lotto-Jumbo) is in the race and could do with being noticed, Fabian Cancellara (Trek-Segafredo) might want to stretch his legs in the crosswinds. Now that Cannondale-Drapac’s GC ambitions have taken a hit maybe Ram?nas Navardauskas is released. Finally Greg Van Avermaet could try again in the breakaway and since he’s got nothing to lose it will be easier to win.

Solo break Jens stylee off the summit, maybe a Tony Martin 100km itt too.

Morning all, apologies, working at a different office today so am delayed logging in, thanks nbt.

It’s a sprint day so a few things are guaranteed to happen:
1. I will predict Kristoff to win.
2. The break will go, there will be Frenchmen in it.
3. The break will be caught.
4. Someone will attack out of the bunch, likely from Cofidis, they too will be caught.
5. There will be a sprint, it’ll be won by Kittel or Greipel, but not Kristoff.
6. GC will remain unchanged.

I’m going for Coquard for the spring today. Shame as he’s in my loser’s team but I’ve just got this feeling he’s going to spoil that for me

Do like stages like today’s, could play out any number of ways. Though the question does seem to be in what way will Sagan win this one! I’d be surprised if a big group doesn’t go clear on the first climb and Sagan will be desperate to get into it otherwise Tinkoff will be chasing all day as I doubt any other teams will have much interest in chasing (mostly depends on whether Etixx or DD reckon they can get Kittel or Cav over that last climb.)

I think the first climb has double points for the polka dot as its the highest point of this years tour .

I expect some hectic action to secure those before a break is allowed to go.

First climb is going to be mental!!! Souvenir Henri Desgrange for the first rider to summit so it’ll be ridden at a serious pace. Weather looks mental again! 25m visibility currently and predictions of 60km/h cross headwinds during the finishing hour or so!

That Cat 3 climb could be interesting…..Sagan to go on there/force a small selection? Or Spartacus? He’s been quiet so far. Maybe GvA will fancy another win and attack on there too?

Sprint itself should suit Cav should it come down to it…..be interesting to see how he’s feeling after the mountains and a rest day…..think the track work he’s been doing will really start to hurt him as the race progresses.

Sagan for me.

Reckon it has the potential to be an absolutely dire stage though!

Possibly the most interesting part of the stage (first climb) isn’t on tv today – we join on the descent 🙁

Seems like a day to miss tbh

Possibly the most interesting part of the stage (first climb) isn’t on tv today – we join on the descent

That is odd – they must show the whole thing on some random French channel surely? Or at least have footage from that climb on the ITV highlights?

zilog6128 +1 why cant they show stuff on the highlights? What also bugs me is occasionally on the live show they will cut to ad breaks, fair enough, but if some action is missed during the adverts they don’t seem to show it on the highlights either! Shirley they have the footage, or do all the cameras switch off for 3 minutes for every hour of the race?!

Who’s the man with the best hair then?

Even our coverage doesn’t start for another 90mins…

17 RIDERS AWAY, INCLUDING PINOT
17 riders form the front group. Thibaut Pinot is one of them.

http://racecenter.letour.fr/#/stageprofile

Off we go

Excellent, my first 2 predictions are correct so far then.

closed down. WORST BREAKAWAY EVAH.

Go Thibault, he’s in my fantasy team (as is Bardet 🙂 )

EDIT: Boo, breakwasy shut down already

@zilog French coverage starts at 1350 local on TF3 before switching to TF2 after 70 mins. They do show a few highlights ffrom earlier but not a great deal

and Sagan has gone for it!!!
So the text updates say

Went for gool old sage and onion in our fantasy league for today, but can’t see them keeping a breakaway out, I thought he’d damage the other sprinters on the cat 3 near the finish. (might still do I guess)

I was hoping they would show the first climb I was up there a few weeks back. The most bonkers stretch of road around. Posh hotels, large fibre glass elephants and tigers, you can buy a full cow skin, freeze booze at the side of the road, and then at 2400m about 10 petrol stations all perched on top of the hill !

Then you drop down in to Pas de la Casa the ugliest ski resort in the world.

Unfortunately the elephants, tigers, petrol stations are not visible in my pic below 😀

Its then literally downhill for mile after mile after mile after mile, not sure how far, but probably 40/50 miles?

A petrol station 😯

Tax free – All the frenchies come over to fill up.

The decent through Pas de la Casa 🙄

🙂

Surely top of hill is the worst place for a petrol station as you can always roll down and no one is going to push a car uphill to buy petrol 😉

Edit tax free yes of course 😳 I should hav remembered we used to take a day trip there from French side to stock up on booze as is the £1 a litre wine in France wasn’t cheap enough

It’s like when ITV went for an ad break just as the race was going through Keighley a couple of years back.

Enjoying the Tour of Austria on Eurosport right now 🙄

Shame that first climb is so close to the start, would have certainly caused some action if it was nearer the finish..

Well based on the app the only thing thas happened is Cav has been dropped (no time delta given) so perhaps they where right after all

Solo break 38 seconds, cav back in peleton ?

It’s like when ITV went for an ad break just as the race was going through Keighley a couple of years back.

There was a reason for that (and not just because it was Keighley!), basically obscenities painted on the road

I had a fabulous ski trip in pas, culminating in me missing the worst open goal in history and not nobbing a gorgeous French girl when i should have.

I wish all I had was memories of endless petrol stations, I bet those dreams don’t wake you in the middle of the night to marvel at your ineptitude.

🙂 I think you meant “fait amour” classic example of regretting only what you didn’t do in life 😉

Most interesting coverage so far today – interview with 3 dh mtb-ers in Ax-les-therms (been there !) whilst peleton flashes past

interview with 3 dh mtb-ers in Ax-les-therms (been there !)

Been there too ! Stinks. But nice place. And I beat some pro’s down the hill from the ski resort. (they didn’t like being overtaken)

https://www.strava.com/activities/585716157

Strong looking break now.

kin ‘ell Costa doing 28km/h up the climb, that’s about as fast as my average on ride!

that was probably what she had in mind, she’d have had to make do with the british equivalent TBH

I had my car pranged in that car park on funkyduncs first pic when i was in the shop buying silly cheap booze last year.

I have ridden in Ax but didn’t beat any pro’s down….

… and we have live coverage! Valverde and Froome sat up and having a chat at the head of the peloton. Break pushing on, looks like the peloton is happy to let them go…

Mikel Landa (Sky), Gorka Izagirre (Movistar), Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Peter Sagan (Tinkoff), Samuel Dumoulin (AG2R-La Mondiale), Damiano Caruso (BMC), Edvald Boasson Hagen and Stephen Cummings (Dimension Data), Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal), Rui Costa (Lampre-Merida), Luke Durbridge, Daryl Impey and Michael Matthews (Orica-BikeExchange)

Strong group if they can work together. I’d be keeping an eye on Cummings!

Coverage starts just as all the action stops 🙁

So 11pm here, Peleton is looking for a cafe that will seat them all, break is seriously loaded and there is chance that the cat 3 at the finish might give somebody a chance for a break from the group. So watch or not?

Tough call. Suspect there’ll be no action now till that final lump. Could be an good finish.

Interesting summary of the break over on the official feed…

Nine riders out of the fifteen escapees have already won at least one stage at the Tour de France for a total of 24 stage victories: Dumoulin, Van Avermaet, Boasson Hagen, Cummings, Gallopin, Chavanel, Nibali, Sagan and Rui Costa. Six of them have already had the yellow jersey: Van Avermaet, Gallopin, Chavanel, Impey, Nibali and Sagan.

I’d say not. Ventoux is the day for an all nighter.

Watching now and the weather is rubbish (so no scenery !) and stage likely to be dull till the end

Resorting to shots of local chateaux now. Kind of quiet until the final run in I reckon.

Kind of quiet until the final run in Steve Cummings attacks the break I reckon

FIFY

It’s a big stacked break though I reckon at least 6 could go solo