I think the West have woken up post Al-Q, an organisation they saw observed growing steadily and which came very much to threaten the West directly. ISIS absolutely intend to threaten the West, as I said they are calling for action in France in particular at the moment. ISIS do not believe any Muslim should live in a democracy. They captured and detained Western aid workers who where trying to alleviate the suffering of the people of Syria and have held them purely so they can be used to try and manipulate the West. They kidnapped these people a long time ago, they knew where they where going strategically.

a) why do they pose a threat to us? (they don’t!)

Aside from the fact that they do, this is an interesting point. Do we become a nation who uses their military only for defensive reasons, or do we continue to be expenditionary in our approach?
I see the arguement for a defence force, however that will also mean no more humanitarian operations, no disaster relief , no more peacekeeping etc.
I’m certainly not suggesting that we should go for the boots on the ground option, as I said earlier I don’t think it’s a good idea. But we can’t do nothing. What do you think will happen when ISIS have Iraq and Syria? They will just stop and make a nice Islamic state and live happily ever after? That returning Jihadists will forget their military training, hang up their boots and quietly reflect on a job well done?

I think the West have woken up post Al-Q, an organisation they saw observed growing steadily and which came very much to threaten the West directly.

Observed? It was formed from the mujahideen – an organisation heavily supported by the US.

Jambalaya – – While kidnapping people isn’t on, it certainly isn’t a justification for going into another open-ended conflict, with some vague, fuzzy intentions, and little or no idea of what we are actually trying to achieve, or any thought as to the potential consequences.

We went into Iraq in the first place with absolutely no plan as to what to do when we got there, and even the most pessimistic forecasts hardly got close to the car crash we’ve ended up with. So why on earth do we think that wading in again, with the same lack of clear goals or outcomes, will improve matters?

It won’t! Simple as that! Whats the Einstein adage again? About the definition of madness being to repeat the same exercise, and expect different results.

Let them get on with it. Leave them to their medieval barbarism, if thats clearly what they want.

And Jambalaya – you’re history is as dodgy on this subject as it is on Israel. You seem to be making it up as you go along to suit your prejudices. And wilfully ignoring anything that doesn’t suit your narrow world-view.

The Americans were more than happy to arm various islamic nut-jobs (even with surface to air missiles!), on the basis of my enemies enemy is my friend. Don’t forget… 12 months ago we were being told we had to go into Syria to help the ‘opposition’ forces against Assad. Who at the time were being portrayed as some kind of heroic freedom fighters! I think we should be treating this latest call to ams with the same degree of suspicion. I just don’t trust the ridiculously over-simplified account of the situation that we’re presently being sold.

This isn’t one conflict with 2 clear sides. Good guys and bad guys (are there any good guys here?) Theres a multitude of things at play. Sectarianism. Tribalism. Religious intolerance. Ethnic cleansing. Resentful ex-Sadaam supporters. Throw hardline extremism into the mix and you’ve got chaos! So lets add some western forces (infidel crusaders?) too eh? What could possibly go wrong?

wrecker – Member

Do we become a nation who uses their military only for defensive reasons, or do we continue to be expenditionary in our approach?
I see the arguement for a defence force, however that will also mean no more humanitarian operations, no disaster relief , no more peacekeeping etc.

I don’t think they’re mutually exclusive, and our ‘expeditionary’ approach has resulted in the current bit of a mess.

ransos – Member

I think the West have woken up post Al-Q, an organisation they saw observed growing steadily and which came very much to threaten the West directly.

Observed? It was formed from the mujahideen – an organisation heavily supported by the US.[/quote]Quite. We were happy to arm these people when, during the Cold War, they were fighting the Russians. Now they’ve decided we’re their (new) enemy, it’s all a bit awkward.

What seems to be clear is that at the very least at the extreme, Islam clashes with western society and democracy. It is perhaps worthy of consideration as to whether this is an intrinsic clash of culture and religion and therefore insurmountable by peace and reason, or whether there is a solution if extremism can be quashed. If the latter, at what cost, if the former, then we are deluding ourselves greatly.

When the only version of western society the last few generations have known is at best ‘do what we tell you’ and at worst at the point of a gun/drone strike what do expect their reaction to be?

And also look at the people we still support in the region.

This piece focuses on Africa and Islamism, but it applies to our approach in other parts of the world:

Here we go again on Al Qaeda’s Merry-go-round

The West is worried about the rise of Islamism in Africa. There are two big fears – one is that there is a new international terror network that will come and attack Europe and America. The other is that sneaky Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood will get themselves elected – and then promptly abolish democracy.

But behind these fears is an incredibly simplified – almost fictional – vision of the world. It possesses the minds of many western politicians, journalists and associated think tank “experts”. And at its heart is a kind of filter that wipes away anything complex about power and the struggles for power in African countries – and replaces that with a simple picture of the world as divided between goodies (us in the west) and dangerous frightening baddies who are out to destroy us.

It’s both blind and arrogant. And it’s terribly dangerous.

@binners “history” of conflicts in many respects is interesting but doesn’t necessarily dictate how they will play out, its the present and future which rules. The US funded Iraq/Sadam against Iran then then invaded. Going back to the 1940’s might help to explain the Isreali/Palestinian conflict but is largely irrelevant to any solution the future. We agree on Iraq, it was poorly thought out with an exit plan which involved handing power back to “the Iraqi’s” but with no real substance.

We where proposing to go into Syria to support the Syrian Free Army, the SFA have subsequently been attacked by ISIS who have become the prime agitator and in fact as interested in gaining territory in Iraq as they have been in fighting Assad, if not more.

The game plan here is to disable (/destroy) ISIS. Things change and perhaps leaving Assad in place is the solution in Syria. Lesser of two evils ?

Factions in the SFA have already joined ISIS, it’s this kind of simplification of classifying groups fighting with flimsy allegiances as one homogenous body that is so dangerous. And the “history” of our involvement in the region shows we do it again and again. And now, again.

What do you think will happen when ISIS have Iraq and Syria? They will just stop and make a nice Islamic state and live happily ever after? That returning Jihadists will forget their military training, hang up their boots and quietly reflect on a job well done?

And will the nice Mr Putin sit back and let ISIS take Syria ?

We are told by our Media how well organised Isis are, how they have received money for equipment etc from oil sold on the black market, if we are so clever lets stop that happening, who did they sell the oil to ? what sanctions are we taking against them ?

Who tells our media these facts ? is it the government intelligence agencies by any chance ?

@cheeky, Turkey seem to be trying to sit on the fence, they have certainly allowed free passage of aid workers into Syria a significant portion of which have actually gone to fight. Turkey has taken up a much more pro-Middle Eastern posture since it was denied EU membership, in the recent elections politicians where decrying women from smiling at other men instead of being more traditional and bowing their heads. I am sure pressure is being put on them but sanctions would seem counter productive.

its the present and future which rules.

Fantastic, you are O`Brien and I claim my £5

Any way Jammers may I suggest you get your fitness up to spec cos you will no doubt be down the careers office soon, ready to sign the dotted line, Sandhurst no doubt? good luck fella!

@cheekyboy, I am far too broken to be of any use. I do happen to know a reasonable number of past and presently serving members of Her Majesties Armed Forces. I am very cautious about sending them into danger. Air strikes and limited ground forces if absolutely necessary

BTW I have no idea who this O’Brien is ?

Jambalaya – the point is that the whole ‘conflict’ is its actually lots of different conflicts, with a variety of different backers, and interests, jockeying for position. The simplistic narrative we’re being sold by the government and the media is preposterous! Its all got the stench of the misinformation, and ever changing justifications, we were being sold before going into Iraq last time. And we all now know what a pack of lies that all was.

I just can’t see any conceivable way in which western involvement is going to make anything any better. As I’ve asked before: what are ‘we’ hoping to achieve by military action? What is the end result ‘we’ want? And whatever this is (and I haven’t got a clue what that is, do you?), is it even remotely achievable? Is there even the slightest likelihood that the end result will look like what ‘we’ would like?

We are not the world police. What can be achieved by military involvement is incredibly limited. As we’ve so clearly demonstrated in Afghanistan – anyone believe that the second we’re out of there, it won’t immediately revert back to how it was before?

Why do we feel this compulsion to get involved and impose our idea of ‘the way things should be’ on diverse peoples who don’t want, in fact actively resent, our involvement, in situations that are absolutely nothing to do with us? Its madness! Have we learnt nothing from the ongoing debacles and chaos we’ve helped create? It would appear not.

The narrative we’re being fed now, is completely opposite from the one being peddled by the same people 12 months ago, as a justification for military action. Against the ‘other side’ that time. If we’d have gone in then, it would have been a disastrous move! Its no different this time.

So Dave has now said he supports military involvement in Iraq and Syria. The irony that he said the same 12 months ago, about backing what turned out to be a bunch of psychotic islamist nutters, is no doubt completely lost on him. And we’re all supposed to forget that that ever happened, and trust the judgement of the same people this time round. They’ll get it right this time. Honest. It’ll be different this time. Really it will

Do me a favour. 🙄

That’s all history binners. Interesting as it may be, stop living in the past!

about backing what turned out to be a bunch of psychotic islamist nutters,

@binners Cameron and the UK where intent on backing the Free Syrian Army not ISIL or al-N** (I can’t remember what they where called before)

By the way the Australians shot dead a guy who was a terrorist suspect and who tried to stab two police officers as they tried to arrest him. he was being linked with ISIS threat to be-head an Australian in Australia.

That’s all history binners. Interesting as it may be, stop living in the past!

Yep, let’s repeat our mistakes!

By the way the Australians shot dead a guy who was a terrorist suspect and who tried to stab two police officers as they tried to arrest him. he was being linked with ISIS threat to be-head an Australian in Australia.

What difference do you suppose military intervention would make to these kinds of incidents? I refer you to 7/7 and Lee Rigby…

jambalaya – Member

@binners Cameron and the UK where intent on backing the Free Syrian Army not ISIL or al-N** (I can’t remember what they where called before)

🙄

The Free Syrian Army isn’t one group marching under one flag, it’s an umbrella for lots of little militias. Some of whom have switched to ISIS and other factions, as I mentioned above.

That’s all history binners. Interesting as it may be, stop living in the past!

Is that a serious quote ?

@binners Cameron and the UK where intent on backing the Free Syrian Army not ISIL or al-N** (I can’t remember what they where called before)

But thats the whole point. Nobody really knows who anyone is, who’s on what side in these constantly shifting alliances? What their intentions are? Its complicated and just doesn’t fit this ridiculous, simplistic good guys, bad guys narrative

Again: can you tell me how western military involvement is going to make this situation better? And what it will ultimately achieve?

By the way the Australians shot dead a guy who was a terrorist suspect and who tried to stab two police officers as they tried to arrest him.

Some bloke (allegedly a terrorist) in Australia tried to stab someone? SWEET JESUS!!! PANIIIIIIC!!! ITS THE END OF WESTERN CIVILISATION!!!!!!

FFS. That happens in Salford every ten minutes!

cheekyboy – Member
Is that a serious quote ?

It was in response to

jambalaya – Member

@binners “history” of conflicts in many respects is interesting but doesn’t necessarily dictate how they will play out, its the present and future which rules.

Al Monitor: Turkish involvement in ISIL Oil sales

Quite a general piece on smuggling between Turkey and Syria

@binners

You are one of the few people talking sense in here. Keep up the good work.

Air strikes and limited ground forces if absolutely necessary

How limited ? whats the time frame ? How many boots ?

Nobody can foresee the outcome, we can only look back as far as Dunkirk for daft military expeditions and conclude, lets just sit this one out and see what happens.

ISIS must have a supply chain, this can be cut.

Cameron and the UK where intent on backing the Free Syrian Army not ISIL or al-N*

Cameron was, the UK wasn’t apparently

@ Lifer, I see, a bit of cheeky cynicism 😆

What Blair said was that ISIS could not be defeated purely by air strikes, that ground forces would be required and that the UK should not rule out getting involved but that we should not contemplate the return of a large ground force and that local forces should be taking the lead.

What can be achieved is the neutralisaton of ISIS fighters and their infrastructure including their control of banks and oil fields.

What Blair said was that ISIS could not be defeated purely by air strikes, that ground forces would be required and that the UK should not rule out getting involved but that we should not contemplate the return of a large ground force and that local forces should be taking the lead.

If I was the kind of person that banged on about history, which as we all know is useless as a point of reference, I’d say that sounds remarkably similar, in fact; pretty much identical, to what the Americans were saying about a spot of bother the French were having in Vietnam?

Good job I’m not then, eh? 🙄

What Blair said was that ISIS could not be defeated purely by air strikes, that ground forces would be required and that the UK should not rule out getting involved but that we should not contemplate the return of a large ground force and that local forces should be taking the lead.

Blair will no doubt continue to spout this until his last dying breath, I wonder if Cherie agrees ? I wonder if Nicky and Euan are ready for a stint of carrying the sword.

How on earth can any Government contemplate offensive actions and at the same time continue to cut the Armed Forces ?
How can a promise of limited action be fulfilled, its like a contractor promising to complete on time and in budget when in full knowledge the client will pay and accept the inevitable delay when the shit hits the fan, they sell the prospect of a good war and the gullible, toadying press then try and sell it to us.
The only good outcome would be the destruction of Cameron.

George W told the nation
This is not an escalation
This is just a surge toward victory
Just to win my little war
I’m sending 20,000 more
To help save Iraq from Iraqis.

What can be achieved is the neutralisaton of ISIS fighters and their infrastructure including their control of banks and oil fields.

I am not sure how many wars you or Blair want to realise that this is not going to work
We will leave and they will take over again – have you been looking at the success rate of our last “neutralisation” in the area – Beyond naive.
Whilst there they will just pick off our troops whilst hiding again

How on earth can any Government contemplate offensive actions and at the same time continue to cut the Armed Forces ?

Agreed @cheeky in that we need to increase our defense spending and focus on this sort of threat.

JY Iraq itself has been relatively quiet since our departure, I say relatively as the sectarian suicide bombing has continued. ISIS sprung up in Syria beyond our reach. The French are already involved in Air Strikes, its not just me and Blair that thinks this is the right course of action.

you were specifically talking about troops on the ground who agrees with you and Blair on that point?

Relatively quiet 😯
Apparently you consider this a success and we can do this to ISIS –
I think you live in some alternative reality given what you claim about what is happening WOW
Oh and of course ISIS is there as well so we will need to send troops there as well at some point no doubt

Following the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011 the insurgency continued and Iraq suffered from political instability. In February 2011 the Arab Spring protests spread to Iraq;[73] but the initial protests did not topple the government. The Iraqi National Movement, reportedly representing the majority of Iraqi Sunnis, boycotted Parliament for several weeks in late 2011 and early 2012, claiming that the Shiite-dominated government was striving to sideline Sunnis.
In 2012 and 2013 levels of violence increased and armed groups inside Iraq were increasingly galvanised by the Syrian Civil War. Both Sunnis and Shias crossed the border to fight in Syria.[74] In December 2012, mainly Sunni Arabs protested against the government who they claimed marginalized them.[75][76]
During 2013 Sunni militant groups stepped up attacks targeting the Iraq’s Shia population in an attempt to undermine confidence in the Nouri al-Maliki-led government.[77] In 2014 Sunni insurgents belonging to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terrorist group seized control of several major Iraqi cities, including Tikrit, Fallujah and Mosul creating hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons amid reports of atrocities by ISIL fighters.[78]

The Islamic State, also widely known as ISIS, ISIL and Da?esh,[91] originated as Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999. This group was the forerunner of Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn—commonly known as al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)—a group formed by Abu Musab Al Zarqawi in 2004 which took part in the Iraqi insurgency against American-led forces and their Iraqi allies following the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

So what facts do you wish to rewrite in your next post?

You are right ISIS is just syria and Iraq was a massive success
I give up as, clearly, facts dont touch your views

We need to increase our defence spending? Dear god! Can you talk me through how going back into Iraq, and then Syria, comes under the remit of ‘defence’ please? Are we expecting ISIS landing craft off Beachy Head?

Oh… I forgot… You zionists have a somewhat different interpretation of the word from pretty much everyone else. 🙄

I don’t think they’re mutually exclusive, and our ‘expeditionary’ approach has resulted in the current bit of a mess.

They are absolutely mutually exclusive. You have a QRF (most disaster relief is short notice) capability or you don’t. You have a force capable of expeditionary ops (peacekeeping is often a fair distance and requires the establishment of infrastructure) or you don’t, and if you do; you can bet your arse it’ll be used however the govt of the day sees fit.
On the plus side; a defence force would be very cheap. No need for lots of airframes, long range carriers & subs. No paratroopers, minimal SF. But, youu can’t have your cake and eat it.

JY I said “relatively”, relative to the prior 10 years. I didn’t say there wasn’t a high degree of sectarian violence, the suicide bombings continue. I follow that fairly closely (Al-Monitor I find is excellent) and post here regularly on it. ISIS was able to expand dramatically into Iraq as the Iraqi Army didn’t stand and fight despite having the equipment and the training to do so. Had they done so I think the situation could have been contained.

Binners, perhaps I’ll just call it the military then rather than defense spending if that’s easier for you.

You can call it what you like. The fact of the matter is that we should be greatly reducing our defence/military spending year on year. Starting with the nonsense that is Trident, and working down from there.

We are not some colonial power, despite what those in Whitehall, and Downing Street, like to think. We are a small island off the coast of Europe, with a busted economy. We need to spend the limited resources available to us on important stuff like schools and hospitals

And that means that there needs to be a reality intrusion at the top. Those who propose these ludicrous foreign adventures, need to be taken to one side and told that we can’t afford it, and as I’ve already stated repeatedly IT’S NOTHING TO DO WITH US!!!

It isn’t the 19th century. We are not running the world. We are not the worlds policeman. If the Americans want to be… let them get on with it. Grow a pair and tell them they’re on their own this time, as we have a different set of priorities, as we don’t have billions upon billions to spaff on some pointless crusade, and could do without any more of those Union Jack draped coffins coming home

ISIS was able to expand dramatically into Iraq as the Iraqi Army didn’t stand and fight despite having the equipment and the training to do so. Had they done so I think the situation could have been contained.

Are there any other hypothetical situations, or events that might or might not have happened, that could also potentially have changed the situation? Maybe if aliens had landed in Syria, things would be different? It is what it is. One massive almighty, biblical scale **** up!! And any further involvement by the people who caused that massive almighty, biblical scale **** up in the first place – us – will only make things ten times worse!

IT’S NOTHING TO DO WITH US!!!

I get what your’re saying, but here’s a question. Do we get to pick and choose when it’s nothing to do with us? At what point does a conflict impact us? Left unchecked, 5 years down the line IS could have engulfed the region and start knocking on Europes door.

I don’t support war but it’s a sad reality that there comes a time when outside nations do need to get involved. I don’t know if that time is now but I dread to think what’s happening on the ground out there and I’m fairly certain that beheading westerners on camera is probably one of least gruesome activities. If we can invade a country off the back of fake WMDs, then we can go to the rescue of a country when they’re suffering genocide.

wrecker – Member
They are absolutely mutually exclusive.

You can have a defense force and still maintain QRF and our obligation for peacekeeping. Peacekeeping as a part of UN or NATO operations. Acting alone or with a couple of other countries should be a thing of the past.

you can bet your arse it’ll be used however the govt of the day sees fit.

For sure. And that’s a bridge/cross challenge. It’d be more difficult if the armed forces were classified as peacekeeping and self-defense though.

BoardinBob – Member
I don’t support war but it’s a sad reality that there comes a time when outside nations do need to get involved.

Not in ones and twos though. It needs international solutions to ensure stopping conflict and not national self-interest is the mission.