Clicky

Let’s fight IS but doing what caused them in the first place. like it, makes perfect sense. That’ll never lead to an esculation and more people joining that particular cause, can’t see that coming at all.

We should do want didn’t work last time. Brilliant.

Slightly lazy conclusions being drawn here as to why Iraq didn’t work.

It didn’t work because we disbanded the Army and the Baathist party and failed to get the funding and political support for staying there for another decade.

Watched a bit of his speach earlier on the BeeB and it was a very badly scripted narrative at best.

I still find having him in place a very odd situation..

The interview I heard he said that for military reasons airstrikes might not be enough, and if the Iraqis and Syrians prove unable to deal with them on tbe ground, then we shouldn’t rule out going in again ourselves.

I hate him, but in the interview I heard he did not say we should be sending troops in, just that we shouldn’t rule it out in case we have to. Which from a dispassionate military perspective, I can see the logic of.

If Iraq was left to its own devices many years ago, im sure saddams troops would have no problem fending off IS, if IS would even be in existance

Saddam wouldn’t have been immune to IS and I’m actually of the opinion that IS would still exist.

IS still aren’t much worse (if at all) for murder and genocide than Saddam was, people seem to be forgetting that. He was a shitbag that killed untold millions in campaigns of war and genocide.

“Unless you’re prepared to fight these people on the ground, you may contain them but you won’t defeat them.”

Doubtful you’ll beat them even then Tony, certainly not within the bounds of the Geneva convention rules. They aren’t an army. No uniforms, no discpiline, no traditional tactics. Trying to go “Queensbury” with an outfit which will just hide amongst the public will be futile, and another PR disaster which will be exploited (again) by the extremists.
Find their funding streams; cut them off. Drone the command. This will be won by the intelligence services. Proper intelligence, preferebly different to the people who told you about the WMDs.

IS wouldn’t have stood a chance against Saddam. His army was only crushed by a sustained air bombardment. These guys were battle hardened from years of fighting.

Slightly lazy conclusions being drawn here as to why Iraq didn’t work.

It didn’t work because we disbanded the Army and the Baathist party and failed to get the funding and political support for staying there for another decade.

This.

The military operation itself was a complete success.

IS wouldn’t have stood a chance against Saddam. His army was only crushed by a sustained air bombardment. These guys were battle hardened from years of fighting.

So are many of Iraq’s current security forces and let’s not forget that the Syrian military is full of hardened bastards as well. If Saddam was still around the Arab Spring would have spread to Iraq, with the Kurds leading any insurrection. Saddam was truly hated by most of his country.

Saddam was a shitbag, but he killed thousands rather than hundreds of thousands.
That was left to us and the Americans.
And we armed Saddam, don’t forget.

Iraq was a secular state, with the best infrastructure in the ME, until the was of 93. It’s in a worse position now than it was then.

Saddam was a shitbag, but he killed thousands rather than hundreds of thousands.

HAHAHAH! That is completely wrong.

Saddam literally killed millions.

So are many of Iraq’s current security forces and let’s not forget that the Syrian military is full of hardened bastards as well.

The current Iraqi army don’t have the incentive of torture and death to spur them on though and IS are probably picking up as many volunteers as casualties as they go.

These guys were battle hardened from years of fighting.

More to the point, they did not play by the rules which most others do.

Thank you Tony that was a very useful contribution to the debate. We’ll certainly bear it in mind. Yep i’m sure youve got lots of other great ideas too. Ok bye now Tony, you run along, see you later. Bye.

The current Iraqi army don’t have the incentive of torture and death to spur them on though and IS are probably picking up as many volunteers as casualties as they go.

Doesn’t tend to motivate troops as you can see in Syria. Saddam would have possibly fallen during the Arab spring, ISIS would have moved in whilst the Kurds, Sunni’s and Shias were busy blindly killing each other.

Not conforming to the rules of war is not some silver bullet, it’s how motivated you are to put your life on the line. Currently ISIS are far, far more motivated to do so than either the Syrian or Iraqi army.

“no discpiline”

Apparently their CofC is quite effective, which is why they are quite effective.

The region is plagued by successive waves of self-inflicted barbarism, because by-and-large the people and politics of the region is of a mindset similar to our un-enlightened European ancestors. Political, social and religious enlightenment in Europe was a long time coming. And it will be a long time coming to the Middle-East too.

Apparently their CofC is quite effective, which is why they are quite effective.

They are still a rabble, capable only of guerrila warfare at best. But with conventional forces, you can’t beat what you can’t see. Nobody seems to have an effective method for COIN ops within legal frameworks as far as I can tell so until ISIS pull on some dessies and forms up; Tonys idea is a bit crap.

Slightly lazy conclusions being drawn here as to why Iraq didn’t work.

Pur-lease. We and the US created the conditions for ISIS to exist, just as we created the conditions for Al-qaeda to exist.

I think we should give him a gun and let him go…

The best way to tackle extremism is to kill more people, obviously.

I don’t think Saddam’s regime would have been immune to the “Arab Spring” so may well have been in a similar state to Syria is now had the western powers not invaded.

Thank you Tony that was a very useful contribution to the debate. We’ll certainly bear it in mind. Yep i’m sure youve got lots of other great ideas too. Ok bye now Tony, you run along, see you later. Bye.

THIS

Nobody seems to have an effective method for COIN ops within legal frameworks as far as I can tell so until ISIS pull on some dessies and forms up; Tonys idea is a bit crap.

THIS

we cannot keep using force against ideas and forces that hide within the civilians, they run away when we turn up to hide in plain sight , conduct an insurgency and then takeover when we inevitable run out of money/will and/or body bags.

Furthermore only a loon would listen to that mans advice as to what to do in the middle east hence why he thinks it is important he say it

Is this part of a series? Gordon Browns guide to balancing budgets next? David Camerons guide to social mobility?

The Middle East Peace Envoy says ‘more bombing’.

You couldn’t make it up.

The military operation itself was a complete success

😯 😯 😯

Cleggs guide to sticking to your pledges
Goves guide to humility
AS – how to win friends and influence people
Balls guide to parking
Huhnes guide to ethics within a marriage
loads out there

Find their funding streams; cut them off. Drone the command. This will be won by the intelligence services. Proper intelligence, preferebly different to the people who told you about the WMDs.

Good grief

You are aware no doubt that a substantial amt of ISIS funds are sales of oil, which were probably the end user of.

When Pres Carter decided that the Mid East was strategically important this was always always going to be end result. Brown and black people can die off in their millions it is irrelevant. As long as the oil continues to flow

Pur-lease. We and the US created the conditions for ISIS to exist, just as we created the conditions for Al-qaeda to exist.

That’s not actually true. Not the “exist” part anyway. These groups would still exist BUT they wouldn’t be as popular. We’ve been a bit “Simon Cowell” to that end.
IMHO, this will never end. There will always be a reason/excuse for jihad against western opression somewhere as long as people choose to misinterpret the Koran. Considering people still debate the meaning of 60s pop records, I reckon it’s going to be a while.
The only other option is find an alternative to oil, and leave them the **** alone. Literally, have no dealings with the middle east whatsoever.

I Love a bit of Tony. Did he start with “Now is not the time for soundbites; I am a grasping, Machiavellian cockwomble” ?

If not, I’m oot

ISIS is Al-qaeda – the Anglo American establishment changed the name because it was becoming an irrefutable thorn in their propaganda mandate that ‘we’ve’ been funding/supplying them – Or do folk think these Wuhabbists got all those Military Spec Toyotas from captured weapons caches? Ain’t you seen the pictures of John ‘insane’ McCain chilling with known terrorists in Syria? Tony Blair saying putting ground troops on the ground is the answer is like saying 580mm is the optimum bar width for a downhill race in the Alps – David Kelly R.I.P ..

IMO stating that we helped create this mess isn’t a reason we should stay out, we are one of only a handful of nations that have the ability and expertise to really make a difference. ISIS however they came about are truly abhorrent and should be removed using suitable tactics and applied force.

I’d doubt it will come to us sending conventional forces though and I wouldn’t be surprised if the help the Iraqi army really needs isn’t already there is small numbers to be expanded once things become official.

But if we have to send conventional troops back in I really hope they have a clear mission, are properly supported by the government and not hamstrung with tight RoE and half arrsed policy like they were in the COB at Basra Airport circa 2007.

Saddam wouldn’t have been immune to IS and I’m actually of the opinion that IS would still exist.

the core of IS military leadership is (apparently) Iraqi conventional army officers who were fired when the army was disbanded by Paul Bremner. there was a good podcast on PBS about the early days of 2003.

Konabunny, If it wasn’t IS it would be Al Nusra or a similar group. It’s only an opinion of course, but Saddams lack of popularity and the poverty caused by sanctions would have seen to it that Iraq entered a state of civil war at some point. Most likely when Syria descended into civil war.

But you kind of back up my point, it wasn’t military action that led to the rise of ISIS per se, it what we did during reconstruction and what the blindly incompetent Iraq government did afterwards.

I’ll track down that podcast.

I think we’re getting into the complexity of alternate histories here – I don’t think Syria would be as great a clusterfuzzle if there hadn’t been such a disaster in Iraq for the last decade.

I agree that a nondemocratic regime like Saddam’s is inherently unstable, but I don’t think that necessarily means there would have been a civil war, or that it would have been sectarian, or that it would have been framed as a crossborder war of Islamic fundamentalism.

FWIW, I’m pretty sure the podcast I was talking about was “Losing Iraq”, here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/frontline-audiocast-pbs/id336934080?mt=2 It’s a little bit plodding but it gives a good insight into the decision to launch the “debaathification” decree and dissolve the military – both of which were terrible ideas.

As Peace Envoy for the Middle East, shouldn’t Tony go and visit ISIS to have a chat?

We can only hope I guess.

Saddam was evil? He sure wasnt great but educated people with smiles in suits from across the Atlantic made sure that a place where classical concerts was played, all sects lived together became a vast pit of death. Arab countries needstrongmen. Some are nasty murderers like Saddam. Others rule at the head of a committee. Peace is kept by ‘dont mess and your day to day will be smooth/good. Us Westerners cant grasp that with our McDonalds corrupt democracies.