is pretty much relying on a Corbyn success, imo. If in 5 years time Corbyn is elected to Downing Street, i reckon he will have done so taking a large percentage of votes back from the SNP and independence will be a wreck.

If his leadership collapses in the face of infighting and a right wing fightback, then that will pretty much solidify the SNP’s position in Scotland and independence will just be a matter of time.

Guess the first tester of that theory is the Scottish elections next year.

If in 5 years time Corbyn is elected to Downing Street, i reckon he will have done so taking a large percentage of votes back from the SNP and independence will be a wreck.

Corbyn could take every seat in Scotland and the Tories would lose one. To form a govt Corbyn needs to take the Tory/Labour marginals in England and maybe hope a LidDem revival takes a few off the Tories.

If the Tories win again they can justifiably hold the SNP to their once in a generation statements prior to the referendum.

independence will just be a matter of time.

A generation, perhaps even a lifetime

They can hold onto them all the like, a generation is only a matter of time and can have many definitions.

But tbh i’m just passing opinion here on how things will go in scotland, i don’t particularly care about the union or independence, I didn’t vote yes for nationalistic reasons, there are many like me.

Like i say the scottish elections will be interesting. I SL can hold on to a batch of constituency seats, even with an eedjit like dugdale in charge, it’ll be a strong indicator for the GE, and the future for the SNP.

But Scottish independence requires the people in Scotland to vote for it. It doesn’t matter how many Westminster MPs, how much of the Scottish parliment is SNP, if the next (if / when) referendum votes for no to independence then that will be how it remains.

The press and politicians can sound off as much as they like, but it’s the votes in the ballot box that counts.

Corbyn could take every seat in Scotland and the Tories would lose one. To form a govt Corbyn needs to take the Tory/Labour marginals in England and maybe hope a LidDem revival takes a few off the Tories.

Of course if they campaign for pulling out of the EU they could take literally all of UKIPs vote for one term which adds about 15pc country wide. That would help. Plus the green vote might go to Labour, every little helps.

a generation is only a matter of time and can have many definitions.

True. But support for independence can change in both directions. Assuming the Tories win in 2020 it’s a fair bet there’s no referendum for at least 10 years. If a week is a long time in politics who knows how the landscape will look in 2026.

The SNP IMO have the tactical problem that a Labour govt might coincide with a drop in SNP support. Continued Tory govts can just refuse a referendum for the next “generation.”

Best chance might be a Labour/SNP coalition with a referendum as a condition. That depends both on the right electoral arithmetic and having a Labour leader happy to go down in history as breaking up the UK.

irc – Member
Corbyn could take every seat in Scotland and the Tories would lose one. To form a govt Corbyn needs to take the Tory/Labour marginals in England and maybe hope a LidDem revival takes a few off the Tories

I know, i’m not saying a labour fight back in scotland puts him in downing street, just that a corbyn failure solidifies SNP hegemony for a generation or more. Under those circumstances of SNP gov after SNP government, the will of the Scottish people will be undenyable.

irc – Member
a generation is only a matter of time and can have many definitions.
True. But support for independence can change in both directions. Assuming the Tories win in 2020 it’s a fair bet there’s no referendum for at least 10 years. If a week is a long time in politics who knows how the landscape will look in 2026.

The SNP IMO have the tactical problem that a Labour govt might coincide with a drop in SNP support. Continued Tory govts can just refuse a referendum for the next “generation.”

Best chance might be a Labour/SNP coalition with a referendum as a condition. That depends both on the right electoral arithmetic and having a Labour leader happy to go down in history as breaking up the UK.I’d largey agree, apart from i don’t think the tory’s could hold out forever. They can’t claim to be a democratic party if Scotland continually approves referendum manifestos.

I’d largey agree, apart from i don’t think the tory’s could hold out forever. They can’t claim to be a democratic party if Scotland continually approves referendum manifestos.

But will they? Last time 50% voted for the SNP and 50% for unionist parties. Not overwhelming support. So depends whether SNP drifts up or down. Either is possible.

If the SNP have a referendum manifesto and get 45% of the vote and 2/3rd of the seats is that a justification for a referendum?

irc – Member
I’d largey agree, apart from i don’t think the tory’s could hold out forever. They can’t claim to be a democratic party if Scotland continually approves referendum manifestos.
But will they? Last time 50% voted for the SNP and 50% for unionist parties. Not overwhelming support. So depends whether SNP drifts up or down. Either is possible.

If the SNP have a referendum manifesto and get 45% of the vote and 2/3rd of the seats is that a justification for a referendum?That’s the democratic system we live under, so yes it will be, even if 45% it should be enough to call a ref.

You’re basically saying the tories don’t have a right to govern at the moment.

Btw 51.3% voted for pro ref parties, SNP + the Scottish Greens.

Calling bencooper!

Calling bencooper!

Invasion imminent!

Invasion imminent coming from the South!

Prepare yourself!

😆

For the long term survival of the union, most importantly we need all the major parties to stop acting like Scotland has already left. Corbyn’s obviously up for that, so it’s a start.

But as long as casting Scotland as the scary outsiders plays well in middle England it looks like the Tories will continue to do so, and that’ll wreck the union. It’s essential that there’s no more “would you do a deal with the SNP”, no more “we cannot allow these people to have a voice in our parliament”, no more talk of us stealing english people’s money, no more suggestion that the SNP holding any power is undemocratic and that 50% of Scottish votes are invalid. But imo there will be, and it’ll carry on being the most effective wedge between us.

In the short term, a Corbyn win is definitely good for the union. Ironically I think a Corbyn disaster is too- because it means another 5 years where people can say “Well, the Tories only won this time because Labour sucked, maybe next time Labour will do better”, same as we did with Milliband- because let’s be honest, we can’t really blame England for voting against Milliband, he was a tit. We didn’t vote for him either!

But a credible Corbyn performance that still gets rejected by England, that’s a big nail in the coffin imo.

Northwind – Member

In the short term, a Corbyn win is definitely good for the union. Ironically I think a Corbyn disaster is too- because it means another 5 years where people can say “Well, the Tories only won this time because Labour sucked, maybe next time Labour will do better”, same as we did with Milliband- because let’s be honest, we can’t really blame England for voting against Milliband, he was a tit. We didn’t vote for him either!in the face of the widely held view the the right of the labour party are just tory lite? I’d doubt that myself. I reckon the historical labour vote has transformed permanently with the lack of a credible leftist labour party.

They can’t claim to be a democratic party if Scotland continually approves referendum manifestos

Whilst that argument has some merit, the pre IndyRef “once in a generation” narrative also cannot be ignored.

Several friends voted SNP in May because they felt it would be safe to do so following the IndyRef result and because they were disillusioned with Labour. If it goes back on the table, that support won’t be there.

I suspect the SNP achieved a high point because at the same time they could point to nasty Tories against a background of spending cuts, useless Labour and pointless LibDems. I struggle to see how that set of circumstances can be repeated or improved upon.

The influence of Corbyn on Scottish Labours performance next May will be interesting to watch.

Its amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to

Politics eh

If Scotland keeps voting for independent parties and having no UK parties then the writing really is on the wall for the Union

EVEL will help the nationalist cause, too.

That’s the democratic system we live under, so yes it will be, even if 45% it should be enough to call a ref

Not my reading of it. I’d say that was 55% not wanting a referendum. Not sure the SNP would want one then either. Another No vote and it could be a long long time before another chance. Going for another referendum after SNP support had fallen by 5 or 6% might not be the wisest move.

Its amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to

Not really.

With two results possible and a number of statements made which related only to one or other result it is logical only those relating to the “no” vote come in to play.

Clearly had there been a “yes” he’d have got to negotiate on all the ridiculous promises and the question of another referendum (even for disappointed no voters) wouldn’t have arisen.

Union? Correct scrutiny of SNP actions not rhetoric. Safe…..

Scots are canny folk after all as the once in a generation referendum showed – given the timeframe they must have thought long and hard about it. No flash, short term decision.

Politics eh

Indeed. Have you looked at any of Jim Sillars’ book that’s just out? Details lots of the internal politics of the “yes” campaign and suggests there were many strategic errors. When he suggests some of those in the campaign thought AS took the wrong approach, it suggests some outside criticism of him wasn’t entirely unreasonable.

😀

I don’t think the two are mutually exclusive. Easy enough to say “you’re full of shit, but why don’t you try and prove for once that you’re not” 😉

Scots* are canny folk after all as the once in a generation referendum showed

No one criticised his “lies” more than you and yet now you use this quote as gospel and the “truth” thus proving my point. you are not alone though in this respect.
If you thought AS was full of shit, half truths and lies then you think this statement was not to be believed also. You cannot take the one quote you like and have that as the truth else you look as unprincipled and opportunistic with the truth /facts as you claim he was. To hold this one quote up as gospel is as dishonest as you claim he was.

* It was still a vote in Scotland it was not a vote of the Scots

But it doesn’t matter whether you think that was just another bit of the BS – you can still call him on it.

teamhurtmore – Member
Union? Correct scrutiny of SNP actions not rhetoric. Safe…..

maybe, but politics isn’t fought on scrutiny, it’s fought on perception.

irc – Member
That’s the democratic system we live under, so yes it will be, even if 45% it should be enough to call a ref
Not my reading of it. I’d say that was 55% not wanting a referendum. Not sure the SNP would want one then either. Another No vote and it could be a long long time before another chance. Going for another referendum after SNP support had fallen by 5 or 6% might not be the wisest move.

current polls put support for independence on 47% yes and 42% no. (and since the don’t knows don’t count, that means more or less a reversal of the last result.)

Btw Alex Salmond isn’t the scottish sovereign, he doesn’t get to dictate what the scottish people want. What he says isn’t law. It’s irrelevant.

What is relevant is UK law, and a ref can be called at anytime under that, just a case of convincing which ever PM to allow it. They managed it once after the scottish people voted for it in a manefesto, I reckon the precident is set there, which is why it’ll be difficult to deny another, if the scottish people vote for it.

The UK gov generally favour law and precident over what alex salmond said in the disappointment of a defeat! 😆

But it doesn’t matter whether you think that was just another bit of the BS – you can still call him on it.

I think it does matter when people hold up the words of the man they think is a liar and BS as the truthful definitive comment on when there should be another vote.
How about he lied and we should ignore what this charlatan says or do we just say that when he says something we disagree with ?

Its a position drawn out of political expediency

seosamh77 – maybe, but politics isn’t fought on scrutiny, it’s fought on perception.

Maybe, maybe not. I thought Sillars was clear that the inability to put forward a currency argument that withstood scrutiny was a major reason for the open goal being missed (ok the last part of that were not his words!)

teamhurtmore – Member
seosamh77 – maybe, but politics isn’t fought on scrutiny, it’s fought on perception.
Maybe, maybe not. I thought Sillars was clear that the inability to put forward a currency argument that withstood scrutiny was a major reason for the open goal being missed (ok the last part of that were not his words!)

I think pension propaganda had alot more to do with it to be honest, but lets be honest, in the official debates and campaigns, there wasn’t an awful lot of substance coming from either side.

But that was the nature of it, no didn’t need to have alot of substance, just generate enough destrust. And yes were always going to be stuck with a certain vague-ness.

I’m no great fan of the snp, so i agree with alot of the criticism branded at them.

Their inability to just say yes, we have an alternative currency which is x, was pretty ridiculous. They did give an upper hand there.

ts amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to

I think you’ll find that “The SNP has always said that in our view, these kind of referendums are once in a generation events, this is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity for Scotland”

(Nicola Sturgeon, Sept 2013, interview here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24147303 4:40 in)

So Junky, are you claiming that Nicola is also full of shit, half truths and lies?

ninfan – Member
ts amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to
I think you’ll find that “The SNP has always said that in our view, these kind of referendums are once in a generation events, this is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity for Scotland”

(Nicola Sturgeon, Sept 2013, interview here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24147303 4:40 in)

So Junky, are you claiming that Nicola is also full of shit, half truths and lies?Do you believe the democratic rights of people should be superceded by a few historic soundbytes?

That’s what you are arguing.

Calling bencooper!

Calling bencooper!

Invasion imminent!

Invasion imminent coming from the South!

Prepare yourself!

Is this another one of your chat-up lines?

Sometimes, you just get a permanent change of opinion in a country. It happened when the UK turned against slavery. It happened when the USSR collapsed. And it happened last year in Scotland.

We don’t feel a part of the UK any more. Perhaps not enough yet to vote for independence, but that’s only a matter of time – the only age group that supports the Union is the over-65s. We’re not interested in UK-wide political parties any more, and I don’t think Corbyn will change that.

It’s not up to politicians when we get independence. It’s not up to Mundell when he says no more referendums for 15 years. It’s not up to Salmond when he said it’s once in a generation. It’s up to the people – if we want another referendum, we’ll have one.

bencooper – Member
Is this another one of your chat-up lines?

😆 (must try harder next time … )

So Junky, are you claiming that Nicola is also full of shit, half truths and lies?

I was not claiming that AS was I said it was it is disingenuous for those that did claim that to use him as a source of fact/truth, but, you knew that.
To be fair to the SNP it lasted longer than Lib Dem pledge on tuition fees or a Cameron no ifs or buts I will reduce immigration. Its almost as of politicians on all sides lie.

‘That’s the democratic system we live under, so yes it will be, even if 45% it should be enough to call a ref.’

So how many times do they get to call a ref until they win one? And if they eventually get 51% for yes, is that justification for splitting up the union irreversibly.

Perhaps if there is a yes vote we should hold off with independence for another 5 years and have a rerun…. ‘just to be sure’…

Seems only fair given the SNP appear to think that there are 10% of voters who will quite possibly change there mind on the issue from one year to the next.

Or once they get over the 50% mark is that it done and dusted, ‘Scotland has voted’ and its time to put the matter to bed. I suspect it will be.

tpbiker – Member

So how many times do they get to call a ref until they win one?

As many as we want; that’s democracy. How many elections should we have before declaring one party the winners forever?

tpbiker – Member

And if they eventually get 51% for yes, is that justification for splitting up the union irreversibly.

Nope. But it’s not irreversible, so that’s OK.

Best chance might be a Labour/SNP coalition with a referendum as a condition.

Would be very surprised to see a formal Lab / SNP pact founded on the promise of another indyref. Labour needs Scotland in the Union too much to risk permanently losing those Scottish Labour voters currently flirting with the SNP. Corbyn’s leftist credentials may reel some back in and slightly weaken the SNP in the short term but if those same credentials turn England a deeper shade of blue than it is already, the next election will leave Scottish Labour voters with a real dilemma of following the gormless Dugdale and losing or choosing SNP flavoured socialism to escape the tories. All depends what they regard as the least worst option between an SNP led Scotland or a Tory led UK.

Do you believe the democratic rights of people should be superceded by a few historic soundbytes?

You don’t have a democratic right to a referendum on independence – you seem to keep forgetting that you are constitutionally bound into the union “for ever after” – Article one of the Act of Union!