TJ

I agree, I think naivety is the right word and i also think Clegg is the main culprit here. I suspect the only way the lib dems could come back from this is to get rid of Clegg and leave the coalition but even this would not save them in the short term.

They are in for a mauling which for a lot of dedicated lib democrats at the local level as well as a fair few at the national level is actually quite sad.

But it hasn’t worked out that way. Their influence is minimal and if they remain in this coalition until the end they will be all but indistinguishable from the Conservatives. And although Clegg and a few others seem to be able to accept this I’m not sure the majority will. IMO I don’t think this coalition will last its full term because either –
1) the economy will recover and the Conservatives will take the credit, force the coalition to splinter and then go to the country to try and gain a majority govt.
2) the lib dems will no longer be able to participate in what is proving to be an increasingly right wing agenda
Either way I think Clegg is finished.

I suspect the AV vote will be rejected – people generally are just not interested, and in the absence of any real advantages AV offers (being ‘a bit less rubbish’ than FPTP doesn’t really cut it), people won’t go for it. At which point the LibDems have to really ask themselves what they want out of this ‘coalition’…..if they carry on in it they stand a very good chance of being wiped out at the next election, returning to the kind of core vote of 15% or so they used to get in the 70s and 80s.

After all, why would you vote LibDem if you’re really going to get Conservative?

Basically they were between a rock and hard place.

Agreed, as I said at the time. I think a lot of Lib Debs are very annoyed with the way things are turning out…

lib dems are down to 6 or 7% in the hollyrood elections – 8 years ago they were in third place with 18 seats (ish) looks like they will be down to 6 or less now. And that is under a system that is proportional (if not perfect)

Trouble is, even now they are stuck. If they pulled out of the coalition that would be because they no longer supported the govt agenda. And to distinguish themselves from what has gone before they would be less likely to support the govt.

This is quite a different position from the one they would have been in if they had never joined the coalition in the first place. So there would be a good chance of a vote of no confidence at some stage which could lead to another general election and then they truly would suffer considering the feelings towards them at the moment.

They really are in a no win situation. I can feel a Lib/SDP type split coming on 🙂

Agreed, as I said at the time. I think a lot of Lib Debs are very annoyed with the way things are turning out…

And Milliband is rubbing his hands with glee….he’ll pick up all the wavering voters if they realise that a LibDem vote is essentially wasted. And that’ll be the end of Cameron.

Only problem with the above scenario is that Milliband is the dullest and least charismatic politician I’ve ever seen. I’d vote for him on the basis that he’s not Cameron but that’s not really enough for the general electorate.

nickf

Good point but who would you have chosen from Labour. There does seem to be a dearth of good candidates to choose from. I preferred Ed over his brother, (although i’m seriously thinking i might well have got that wrong) but i can’t say i really thought any of the main candidates were that appealing.