[/quote]Newbuilds carry a preminum of 10-20%, let it out and you’ve lost the ‘new’ bit and you’re just selling a cheeply made house with no parking, storage a tiny garden and a residents association set up to bitch about the builder clamping every other car with a £500/day release fee because they only put in one space for each 4 bed house.

Luckilly my new (ish) build has only lost about 20K in valve since I bought it in what I hoped was the bottom of the slump. I’ve got plenty of parking, garden, inside space and it’s not too shoddy. However I kind of crave an old 80K house that I’m not scared to paint in a colour that might be a little “off trend” and that might actually become positive equity before 2025. Also I effing hate gardens and my GF is working 15miles away in the city. Houses boil my urine.

Barratt confirms shared equity sell off plans

This could affect things

building 6 half mill houses up here in the highlands, lots property came on market last 6 months , not a lot selling though, interest growing on new builds though……

no-one ‘knows’ what the market will do next

Well looking at the fundamentals that affect the market I think we can have a good guess:

* Government cuts still to properly bite.
* Highly likely ‘double dip’ recession on the cards.
* Banks still hugely reluctant to lend (and this may possibly get worse once government support starts to be withdrawn).
* First time buyers mostly still priced out of the market.
* Record numbers of unsold stock on estate agents books.
* Very few transactions currently taking place – a stagnated market.
* Huge gulf between asking prices and actual selling prices.
* Interest rates can only go one way from here.
* No more self-cert mortgages.
* No more 100% or 95% mortgages and very few 90% deals.
* Interest only mortgages a ticking time bomb.
* 20% to 40% deposits required to get a decent mortgage.
* University tuition fees and graduate debt increasing.
* Demand for housing subsiding due to lack of easy credit. Demand is different from desire. The desire to own a home is still there for many, it’s just that demand (or ability to buy) is closely related to the availability of credit.
* General cost of living rising rapidly but salaries are not – leaving little spare cash to either pay the mortgage or save for a deposit.
* Houses still priced at way above normal average salary multiples.
* UK housing stock still at least 20% over valued according to the IMF.

So what do you think – UP or DOWN?

So what do you think – UP or DOWN?

those with a vested interest and/or in a state of denial will probably say “it’s a bit of a hotspot round here, so will only go up”

Well in East London near Olympits site is Apartment crazy
but thats just going down from Bow Church on the main road into stratford.

Everywhere else nothing being built, just finishing off

Nothern Star sums it pretty much how it is.

I think we have another Two more years of this
plus the unknown future of the Euro market.

I wouldn’t buy anything unless you really had to right now

The housing Market! What’s your current thoughts??

Nothern Star sums it pretty much how it is.

+1

Nothern Star sums it pretty much how it is.

Really?? Lets take it one point by one:

* Banks still hugely reluctant to lend (and this may possibly get worse once government support starts to be withdrawn).

What utter tosh. If you have a decent deposit and a proper job then you can easily get a mortgage. Source: financial times and mortgage brokers

* First time buyers mostly still priced out of the market.

Not if they’ve actually bothered to save a deposit (or have help from Mum/Dad/Etc. Only first time buyers who have no career and no deposit are priced out.

* Record numbers of unsold stock on estate agents books.

Only with agents who are still insisting that having a high street shop front is the best way to sell. Agents who are getting more proactive and sensible prices are selling. Source: Rightmove

* Very few transactions currently taking place – a stagnated market.

Where have you made this up from? 78, 000 homes sold in August alone. Yes a drop from the year before but those are huge numbers compared to a few years ago. Source: BBC, HMRC

* Huge gulf between asking prices and actual selling prices.

Wrong. Current average accepted prices are 92% of the asking price and lenders valued 89% of those at the same prices. Source: HMRC and Rightmove stats

* Interest rates can only go one way from here.

What flat? Like it has for years?

* No more self-cert mortgages.

Yes you can if you look carefully.

* No more 100% or 95% mortgages and very few 90% deals.

Sorry but wrong again. Lots of lenders do 100%, 95% and virtually all do 90% mortgages now. If you’ve been told otherwise then your credit rating must be shocking. Source: google and high street bank shop fronts.

* Interest only mortgages a ticking time bomb.

Possibly the only thing I agree with you on.

* 20% to 40% deposits required to get a decent mortgage.

Only if you are a buy to let investor. First time buyers have loads of really good mortgages if you are prepared to shop around. Source: mortgage brokers

* General cost of living rising rapidly but salaries are not – leaving little spare cash to either pay the mortgage or save for a deposit.

Why does this affect the market? The people buying now should have started saving years ago, not now when general costs are rising. I understand and agree that your point is correct but it should have no affect on the housing market today. In 10 years maybe, but not today.

* Houses still priced at way above normal average salary multiples.

Thats been the case for decades so again why does this affect the market today?

* UK housing stock still at least 20% over valued according to the IMF

Who cares?

“Banks still hugely reluctant to lend (and this may possibly get worse once government support starts to be withdrawn)”

What utter tosh. If you have a decent deposit and a proper job then you can easily get a mortgage.

“First time buyers mostly still priced out of the market.”

Not if they’ve actually bothered to save a deposit (or have help from Mum/Dad/Etc. Only first time buyers who have no career and no deposit are priced out.

So basically you’re saying that anyone with loads of cash and earning an excellent salary, can easily get a mortgage. Well done, I bet no one knew that.

The truth is that despite you’re attempt to gloss over the problem, securing a mortgage is still considerably more difficult than it was before the credit crunch. And as unemployment increases (and also young people are denied the opportunity of establishing a career) the problem is unlikely to get much better. Specially for first time buyers.

Just sold a property for more than the (sensible) asking price after being on the market for 3 weeks. The agent said things were moving steadily and generally much better than the last few years. It all depends on the area though, some areas do better that others.

I agree with the above comment; the number of interest only mortgages (mostly buy to lets) without a rational repayment vehicle is potentially a problem for the future in some places. Unfortunately a lot of people seem to have entered the lettings business with out the first idea of what they were doing. Enough to bring down the housing market? Not so sure about that, but then when was market sentiment ever rational?

I’m still bearish on house prices and think that Northstar has a valid point to make, fundamentals look pretty dire. Saying that fundamentals have looked dire for a number of years and the market still has not corrected near to historical levels.

I pay more attention to trends and market psychology for the most part. The trend is down and the psychology one of fear rather than greed IMO.

Not a good time to buy a house right now, if you ask me.

Not if they’ve actually bothered to save a deposit (or have help from Mum/Dad/Etc. Only first time buyers who have no career and no deposit are priced out.

This is bollocks.

For a deposit, you need to have saved multiple thousands of pounds despite paying off the huge student debts you incurred trying to sufficiently educate yourself to get that ‘proper job’; despite a severe lack of all jobs (not just ones you might deem proper) which is getting worse by the day; despite no real long term job security; and despite the cost of living rising far faster than income meaning even the modest life you’re currently living in rented property is costing a fortune and only getting worse.

So you can rely on help from mum and dad (not sure who the ‘etc’ you refer to might be), unless you’re not lucky enough to be on the receiving end of such help because you’re one of the millions of people whose parents funnily enough, despite the portfolio of houses they should apparently own, haven’t got multiple thousands of pounds at hand to lend out to one or multiple offspring.

The price of housing means you can’t go it alone as you need two incomes, which means you need to be settled down with someone, something that can be surprisingly difficult when you’ve had to move cities to find work and are unable to afford a social life because you spend it all on the rental pad, which is invariably the property of those lucky enough to have been around at the right time to benefit from the very boom that shafted and continues to shaft you, so in lieu of your own future, you’re now paying for their retirement, something you yourself will very unlikely ever get to enjoy.

For some people off the bottom, the housing market has been disappearing into the distance for over a decade, with no signs of stopping. The recent ‘problems’ are just as irrelevant as the rest of it. Boom or bust, you were bollocksed either way, and now the madness has slowed all you hear is people whinging about a much needed ‘recovery’, by which they actually mean ‘things going back to the ridiculous and unsustainable way they were before; the way that completely shafted you.

Just saying.

So basically you’re saying that anyone with loads of cash and earning an excellent salary, can easily get a mortgage.

Wouldn’t he have actually used those words if that’s what he meant though. Surely that was the argument he was countering. Buyers with a 10% deposit (not 20-40%) and with a household income of 30-40k (not an excellent salary if there’s 2 of you earning) will get a mortgage. On that sort of income level you could save a reasonable deposit in what, 3-5 years? That model is valid for plenty of areas, obviously not large parts of the SE though.

Having said that, I’d agree that things are likely to get tougher soon. I don’t think I’d be buying anywhere right now and am not looking forward to selling in 3-5 years. I bought in 2008 but got a reasonable deal. Similar place was on the market for 15% more recently, SSTC in a week! Still recon I could take a bath though 🙁

Wouldn’t he have actually used those words if that’s what he meant though.

No I don’t think so. I reckon he was trying not to sound crass. But basically he was saying that anyone with loads of cash and earning an excellent salary, can easily get a mortgage. And anyone without loads of cash and earning an excellent salary, is likely to struggle to get a mortgage. Which is undoubtedly true……see the link at the bottom.

.

It all depends on the area though, some areas do better that others.

Yep, it certainly does. Not only in terms of geographical areas, but also in the market niches – which of course tend to be very closely interlinked.

Because despite the lie peddled by the government we are most definitely not “all in this together”.

There are plenty of people who have not felt the effects of the global recession.

In fact, rather than this representing ‘tough times’ for them, it is actually more a case of very good times indeed :

Directors’ pay rose 50% in past year, says IDS report.

And it’s not just a handful of directors who are doing very well – chief executives 43% and finance directors 34%. And so it goes on, until you reach the bottom.

So I suspect that for quite a few people now is perhaps a rather good time to buy a new/better property. Which will definitely have an effect on the market.

But for millions of people, ie, the majority, right now, is pretty shite, and unlikely to get a whole lot better any time soon :

Mortgage approvals start falling, Bank figures suggest

“September’s retreat in mortgage approvals reinforces belief that there is little evidence of any significant step up in housing market activity,” said Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight.

“Prices are likely to trend down over the coming months in the face of very low consumer confidence amid persistently weak economic activity, markedly rising unemployment and muted earnings growth,” he added.

“we’re all in this together”

Ref this Director’s pay thing – worth pointing out FTSE directors are not representative of most company directors.

Anyhow, i think a house in a `nice’ area, priced well will still sell. From my experience the housing market has been iffy since summer of 2007 – i thankfully sold my last house in November of that year and it was obvious to me, there were problems even then, but sellers were still being too greedy – asking 20k more because of a bit of outside decking and proper laminate flooring.

I currently rent very close to a major new hospital in Brum, and there is no way i could afford the prices around here.

And anyone without loads of cash and earning an excellent salary, is likely to struggle to get a mortgage. Which is undoubtedly true……see the link at the bottom.

I’ve read the link. This is a quote from it:

This means that you can anticipate that at 90% loan-to-value, a loan may cost close to 5% interest, but a 60% loan will carry an interest rate nearer to 2%.

So you can get a 90% LTV mortgage at 5%. Hardly unaffordable! Nothing on there about salaries btw. Find me a link that says you can’t get a 100k mortgage on a 40k joint income then…

worth pointing out FTSE directors are not representative of most company directors

Of course it’s not representative of most company directors, I’m fully aware of that, that’s why I immediately followed with, quote : “And it’s not just a handful of directors who are doing very well – chief executives 43% and finance directors 34%. And so it goes on, until you reach the bottom.” …..couldn’t you follow what I was saying ?

That top down difference is very indicative of the situation as a whole – there are plenty of people who have been completely untouched by the global recession, ie, it has caused them no economic hardships whatsoever, and unsurprisingly, they tend to be rather wealthy people. And I know this from personal experience because my splendidly wealthy sister, God bless her, wouldn’t know that there was any economic stagnation if she hadn’t read about it in the papers, or had seen it on the telly – it has not affected her life one iota. Apart that is, from the fact that she was able to buy a plot of land dirt cheap for cash last month.

I’ve read the link………..Hardly unaffordable! Nothing on there about salaries btw.

Nothing on there about salaries ? So what do you think “markedly rising unemployment and muted earnings growth” is all about then ? I even copied and pasted it for you so that you wouldn’t have to bother clicking on the link if you didn’t want to. Talk about holding someone’s hand 😕

And btw, no one has said that it is “impossible” to get a mortgage. What has been said, is that in the current economic situation, getting a mortgage, right now, is difficult. And that this has had an affect on the housing market (the topic of this thread btw) – mortgage approvals are still approximately half what they were pre-crises.

Now if you can’t accept that, and you want to pretend that the situation is quite different by offering all sorts of examples which buck the trend, well then fine, go ahead, I can’t be arsed. But don’t expect me, or most other people in the UK, to agree with you.

something quite telling about the current situation, someone i know has been refused a mortgage on the basis they had a £7 unpaid phone bill that had been outstanding for 4 years. It was the result of cancelling a contract and just got overlooked, it was never chased by the phone company, it was completely forgotten about until they went to finalise the mortgage offer.

Went to talk to a broker a few weeks back they could offer 1 mortgage at 95%, and a handful at 90%, on affordability criteria the offer was c135k, so your looking at needing 15k ish minimum. try saving that paying off credit card from redundancy, paying rent, eating, etc etc etc.

I have also come across a fair few house sales that have failed because the mortgage lender decided not to give the money rather late in the day.

Our neighbour is attempting to sell at a price 10% higher than anything else comparable sold in the area even at the top of the market. Current estimates via valuing websites are for a 25% discount on this price, which will leave them with a substantial loss against what they bought it for.
But then they are enormously patronising and completely unthinking in how their actions affect anyone else so TBH I don’t really care.