Is that what it is? Anyone got any pie charts to help illustrate the point further?
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The Guardian and Labour. Out of Love with the Euro
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Posted 6 months ago #
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Lifer - Member
TJ is right as long as there is a currency called the euro it hasnt failed, even if the eurozone is an economic wasteland
+1
That could be the very definition of zealotry. Never mind the economic misery, as long as there is something stamped EUR, its a huge success.
Posted 6 months ago # -
It is starting to resemble Soviet Apparatchiks quoting tractor production figures, isn't it?
Posted 6 months ago # -
Posted 6 months ago # -
I am still waiting for anyone to actually show that the euro has failed in any significant manner.
Seeing as I can still buy them, all the eurozone is still trading in them, there is no black market developing, there is no pressure on its value, there is no run on the banks. All seems to be running along quite happily to me.
Yes Greece and Italy have economic issues and the euro means they cannot devalue out of it. However that is not the same thing as the euro failing.
Posted 6 months ago # -
Ah ha.... from the horses mouth. It has failed as a 'single currency' although remains a 'working currency'.
Does that about sum it up?
Posted 6 months ago # -
it has not failed as a single currency - no one is trading using dollars in Greece or Italy. Euros are stil the only currency used in the eurozone
it has not failed by any rational understanding of the word "failed"
Posted 6 months ago # -
im not saying its necessarily a good thing that the euro carries on
although it would be devastating for the poorer countries if they were kicked out of the euro, the run on their banks would make matters far worse than they are now
unless there is a way of lettimg the euro go and prevent this (any suggestions)and it was the financial crash that caused the devastation here not the euro
but i guess haterz gunna hate regardless!
Posted 6 months ago # -
TandemJeremy - Member
it has not failed by
any rationalmy understanding of the word "failed"FTFY
Not a view I agree with but it could be argued that the inflexibility of it across borders and the implementation (bringing Greece on board when they didn't actually meet the criteria) have caused it to fail in its objectives of being a useable, effective single currency.
YMMV.
Posted 6 months ago # -
why clubber? its exactly what it is - a "useable, effective single currency."
by any rational understanding of the word failed it has not done so.
Posted 6 months ago # -
I realise you struggle to see anything other than your own viewpoint as rational, TJ but give it a go. As I said, it's not a view I agree with but I can see how the case can be rationally made.
I'm not going to the effort of making a case for something I don't agree with.
Posted 6 months ago # -
clubber - its about the meaning of the word "failed"
It means it has alrady ceased to work - not "failing" or "under stress" but failed is what people keep claiming.
As the ~Euro is still in existence it has not failed. It remains the single currency for 17 countries
Posted 6 months ago # -
Interestingly, some IBs are now selling FX options in nominal Deutchmarks and Drachma. Still not outright failure, but we're getting very close indeed. Even the bond markets don't give an accurate impression of market sentiment: the ECB is making purchases on secondary markets to surpress yields for the PIIGS while the ISDA judgement on the Greek 'non-default' has rendered CDS possibly worthless.
Posted 6 months ago # -
Prove beyond any doubt that it hasn't failed. Also define "failed" in indisputable metrics that everyone (leave out the "rational" insults) would agree on. It's not a black/white issue therefore it can be argued either way. Some arguments are more convincing than others.
Posted 6 months ago # -
clubber - check the definition of the word "failed"
its easy to prove it has not - I can still go into a bank and buy euros, the currency is not under pressure, its still the only currency in 17 countries
something either exists or it does not. while the euro exists it cannot be said to have failed
Posted 6 months ago # -
Failed - Having undergone failure
Failure -
1. The condition or fact of not achieving the desired end or ends: the failure of an experiment.
2. One that fails: a failure at one's career.
3. The condition or fact of being insufficient or falling short: a crop failure.
4. A cessation of proper functioning or performance: a power failure.
5. Nonperformance of what is requested or expected; omission: failure to report a change of address.
6. The act or fact of failing to pass a course, test, or assignment.
7. A decline in strength or effectiveness.
8. The act or fact of becoming bankrupt or insolvent.By my reckoning, you could argue 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 (and maybe 8
)something either exists or it does not. while the euro exists it cannot be said to have failed
Exists does not equal has not failed.
So, I'll leave it there. Thanks for listening, you've been irrational.
Posted 6 months ago # -
TJ thinks the whole point of the Euro was just to exist. Doesnt matter whether it succeeded in it's stated aims of promoting Stability, Growth and Employment.
I do, I give up. He's a psycopath.
Posted 6 months ago # -
Let's try a little analogy here:
1) You drive your car to a garage.
2) You drive it home again.Between item 1 and 2, some bloke tells you your car has failed. When the police stop you, can you get off by telling the policeman that no your car hasn't failed because it still exists and you can still drive it and TJ says so?
Posted 6 months ago # -
clubber - having undergone failure
Past tense.
Mcboo - I have asked you to provide some evidence of this failure and you have not done so
Posted 6 months ago # -
aracer - if you can still drive the car it has not failed. A car that has failed cannot be driven
Its an eoither / or situation - either something has failed or it has not failed and as the euro can still be traded in it has not failed
Posted 6 months ago # -
I'd be amazed if the euro would be allowed to fail, from a political point of view. And of course the euroseptics here are focusing on the financial troubles of the union, when what they really want to see gone is the political union.
I only hope It all continues, so it can carry on annoying the hell out of you lot.
Posted 6 months ago # -
fail
Posted 6 months ago # -
Right, I've read most of the last four pages and I want to say this loud and proud:
I'm with TJ.
Those of you prattling on about bond yields etc have lost touch with the experience of the general public. Commercial bank mortgage and savings rates are driven by Central bank lending rates* so the ECB rate is of much more significance to people and businesses in the here and now than the bond market.
The car analogy is a rubbish one. My car failed it's last MOT at the first attempt because my wing mirror was secured with gaffer tape. It was still a perfectly good fully functioning car.
*Hence my current mortgage interest rate of base rate + 0.75% = 1.25%
Posted 6 months ago # -
El-bent - Member
I'd be amazed if the euro would be allowed to fail, from a political point of view. And of course the euroseptics here are focusing on the financial troubles of the union, when what they really want to see gone is the political union.I only hope It all continues, so it can carry on annoying the hell out of you lot.
+1
Posted 6 months ago # -
Interesting, well this is ultimately what happens when a generation of children are raised playing monopoly.
Give it twenty years and we'll all be living in a post apocalypse first person obese strategy play along, dressed as wizard ninjas.
Oh the humanity.
Posted 6 months ago # -
mcboo:
TJ thinks the whole point of the Euro was just to exist. Doesnt matter whether it succeeded in it's stated aims of promoting Stability, Growth and Employment.
the current situation is multi-causal, you can't lay the blame for the mess we're only at the Euro's door.
And your logic is flawed. We don't have the Euro (FYI
) but we were/are one of the slowest European countries to see any sort of recovery. Therefore by your logic our 'not joining the Euro experiment' has failed. 
Posted 6 months ago # -
I blame the parents, it could be a dogs face next time.
Posted 6 months ago # -
aracer - if you can still drive the car it has not failed. A car that has failed cannot be driven
But the bloke at the garage told me it failed, and the nice policeman wants to prosecute me because the bloke at the garage told me it had failed. Are you telling me they're both wrong?Posted 6 months ago # -
As I think I said in a thread the last time T€J & mcboo went head to head, it would be much safer for all around if they defined their approach to "fail"
for TJ, the euro is still a viable intra-national alternative for barter, so in the common or garden interpretation of a currency has "not failed".
On the other hand mcboo, who appreciates the wider relevance of currency, it's creation, trade and international functions (if you like: a technical understanding of currency) then it has failed, in that it has proven unable to calm the volatility in a diverse set of economies - it cannot perform the macro economic function of a currency for each user nation. That it continues to exist and be accepted for barter, means it has not failed in just that component of its function, but it has in many others.
Posted 6 months ago # -
BTW the principle cause of the state we're ( and by we I mean the UK, Europe, etc)in is best summed up by Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, just in case you're wondering. It basically goes like this:
Stability makes people reckless. Borrowers (including governments) borrow to excess; lenders lend to excess. And then the resulting defaults cause a financial crisis.
Here endeth the lesson.
(For now...)
Posted 6 months ago # -
Those of you prattling on about bond yields etc have lost touch with the experience of the general public. Commercial bank mortgage and savings rates are driven by Central bank lending rates* so the ECB rate is of much more significance to people and businesses in the here and now than the bond market.
Erm if that is true why did Italy have to borrow at over 6% this morning? Why does bank capital trade at 9 or 10% when central bank rates are low single digits? Another one that needs to read the Economist.
So sorry to prattle
Posted 6 months ago # -
It's really markets that have failed.
Again.
Posted 6 months ago # -
binners - Member
I think you're missing the point here though. The biggest failure of the whole Euro project isn't economic - though that's a big enough car crash!
The biggest failure has been in the sidelining of Democracy. Essentially the Greeks and the Italians, and other countries to a lesser degree, have effectively been told by 'the Markets' that elected representative government is a luxury they can no longer afford. And if they do insist on it, then they will be punished severely for their impudence with effective bankruptcy. With the associated unemployment, collapse of living standards etc that that entails.
The Euro project was always fundamentally undemocratic. The degree to which that is now the case is staggering though
That imo, is the most important point which has been made on this thread, and yet sadly an issue which is largely ignored.
I'm no fan of Berlusconi but it is for the Italian electorate to decide who their Prime Minister should be - not the unelected European Commission and European Central Bank.
And don't be under any illusion as to why Berlusconi was given the shove, by those unelected entities which wield the real power, it's because he was deemed too reluctant to slash social spending even more, and too resistant to implement more privatisation.
In the case of Papandreou, he was sacked by unelected bankers because he had the barefaced cheek to ask the Greek people what policies their government should adopt. They were particularity outraged as it seemed likely that the Greek people would vote "incorrectly", otherwise I'm sure they would have warmed to the idea of democracy.
Both have now been replaced by totally unelected individuals because they failed to do what the European Commission and European Central Bank demanded of them.
It would have been bad enough if unelected European commissioners had insisted that Greece and Italy held general elections, but they didn't even bother with such niceties. After all, the outcome would have been uncertain.......and "the market" doesn't like that. So just impose your own "technocrat", in other words, banker.
Much as I dislike Cameron and want rid of him, and however much he might screw up the UK economy, it is for the British people, and no one else, to get shot of him and replace him with someone of their choosing.
I certainly don't want him replaced with an European commissioner to serve the best interests of bankers, as has been the case with Berlusconi.
This is a banker's dictatorship.
The same people who got us in this mess, are now calling the shots. Wake up.
Posted 6 months ago # -
Another one that needs to read the Economist.
I'll think I'll just read my Economics degree certificate instead. Don't like the Economist and it's 'free-markets are perfect markets' stance.
Posted 6 months ago # -
All well and good mortgages rates being low, but useless if the banks aren't lending. Also the variable rate loans previously referred to (1.75%) are no longer available, the banks are getting hammered on these loans so they pull them and save their money instead. For evidence of this, see the spectacular failure of project merlin.
The whole edifice of european monetary integration is what is in danger: while there is monetary integration without fiscal integration the eurozone periphery are trapped in a austerity-recessionary spiral.
I agree there is some truth in the Minsky hypothesis, the real problem with the euro is the lack of fiscal integration. It's really hard however to imagine a fully integrated federal europe under the current circumstances. This is why I think the route will be inaction until the crisis forces action at gunpoint: either literal or metaphorical.
Posted 6 months ago #
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