Hi all

My 9 year old son heard the news at teatime and asked me if he got swine flu, will he die?

I told him it was very unlikely he would contract it in the first place and shooed him off before he started panicking(he’s prone to that!)

The thing is i didn’t know the answer to his question because all we are being bombarded with is scaremongering(as with Sars, Bird Flu, BSE etc) and no actual facts.

Is it the case that if ann infected person takes the Tamiflu tabs that they will be ok? Is it the case that if the Tamiflu is taken before hand then they will not contract it at all?

It’s just quite frustrating that we seem to go through this cycle every few years with another “potential pandemic” without actually knowing the facts.

In this case, it annoys me that i cant tell my son the answer to his question :-/

Have you told him you’re a lesbian yet? That ought to shut him up.

Almost certainly not given the current statistics. Last I read they had downgraded the 160 odd cases in Mexico to 7 confirmed and the rest suspected. Only this morning has anyone outside of Mexico died. Compare this with typical flu, or any other common disease and it isn’t really that deadly. Tell him to worry about crossing the road instead.

plenty of “proper” info on flu generally and some on this piggy flu specifically but they don’t know how it’ll turn out yet – won’t be long before the USA has sufficient cases for a proper idea I’d guess:

try here

here

here

or here

jonb, I think the mexican figure has gone back up to 170 or so – I think they were just awaiting confirmation that they all had the pig ‘flu

Hi,
By the time we get human to human transmission, piggy flu will be no more fatal than any other flu. It will just be better at spreading. The only difference to ordinary flu is the number of people who will catch it. I am a senior doctor and probably the best thing you could do would be to get it and then you have absolutely nothing to worry about (except cancer, accidents, heart attacks, strokes, killer bees etc etc). Tamiflu only decreases the duration of illness once you have it, it is not a cure, and certainly won’t prevent anything.
Hope this helps.

By the time we get human to human transmission, piggy flu will be no more fatal than any other flu.

It already is passing between humans, and its been given its own strain/name as such (H1N1, Human IIRC). Thats what all the fuss is about?

http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2009/04/29/swine-flu-h1n1-whats-in-a-name/

well i told my 8 yr old being off school wouldn’t be much fun as nothing would be open – cinemas, ice skating, shops etc – think she is pretty used to this “oh they are shut today!!!!!FACT!!!!” line and told me she would go and play with her friends and they would have a great time so all is well with the world

It already is passing between humans, and its been given its own strain/name as such (H1N1, Human IIRC). Thats what all the fuss is about?

think as Gump would say its a case of “statistics does what statistics says”
and I hope they are all wrong

Mjwhite: It is already passing human-to-human as coffeeking says, that’s why the WHO raised the alert level on it.

http://doihaveswineflu.org/

or the more reassuring

http://shouldibeworriedaboutswineflu.com/

Have you heard about the DOT 5.1 pandemic?

Have you heard about the DOT 5.1 pandemic?

Tis no more deadly than your common or garden flu (figures of 4-10% quoted by the Infectious Diseases bods at work) it’s just that coz it’s a variant we haven’t seen in a while then no-one is immune so more people will get it leading to a greater absolute number of deaths. But no more, percentage wise, than your average winter flu epidemic….

HTH

Tis no more deadly than your common or garden flu (

but is that as a percent of total population or as a percentage of those that get symptoms?
current possibility is a lot of people will get as no immunity so potentially a lot of people will die

leading to a greater absolute number of deaths

whoops missed this bit – nowt to get het up about then

no-one is immune so more people will get it leading to a greater absolute number of deaths.

Thank you dr_death ………. I feel hugely reassured.

No one is immune to the common flu either, it changes too rapidly so any immunity from a previous infection would not help with a new infection as it’s a different strain (with different antigens)

Why worry anyway, will it do any good?

I see a pattern developing on this thread :-

Those with a degree in medicine are saying don’t worry.
Everyone else seems determined to be anxious regardless.

Sheesh as a kid I was really concerned about a Nuclear Winter and how many would survive the first strike etc. To be worried about a Pig flu is daft. You need to explain to him how the media works, how they focus on a story and over-report it. Dig up a stat on road deaths in the UK and divide into say a months figure- 160 have died so far due to the flu outbreak? Wonder how many have died in the UK alone from car accidents in the UK. Give him perspective, dont let him be spoon-fed by hysteria of ‘what might be’.

dunno, i was unlucky and got full blown flu in my first two years at uni, first oen i didnt leave my room for 7 days, and ended it with a massive bowl of coco pops and a litre of orange juice!

Second year I was found by my housemates sivering curled up in a blanket withthe thermostat on full on the living room floor trying to phone the doctors!

Still, could have been worse, could have been man flu!

hmmmmmm,

suppose not worrying is helpful in that it’ll allow you to get on with other stuff and it won’t stop a pandemic IF one occurs

however, conservative planning estimates are that 25% or so would contract the disease and 0.5% or more of these are predicted to die. Even just half a percent of only 15-20 million is quite a lot, isn’t it ?

I’m off to the woods with a shotgun & a van-load of baked beans !

edit: which bike should I take for riding over piled-high corpses ?

Apparently the NHS have been giving those infected with Swine flu a special diet of kippers and pancakes. There is no nutriational reason, they are just the only things that the nurses can get under the door.

I’m off to the woods with a shotgun & a van-load of baked beans

I think we’ll need the shotgun to keep your flatulent ass away in that case.

What would make it more interesting? Just before people keel over they oink and squeal repeatedly. Now that would be interesting.

man on the radio this morning said it was the aporkalypse.

AIDS, Ebola, Avian Flu and now Swine Flu – it is likely that human numbers may be controlled by an viral pandemic, but we seem pretty clueless on how to deal with a virus (other than treat the symptoms) so there is little point in worrying.

Having had a friend die of breast cancer 2 weeks ago and another unlikely to see Xmas for the same reason, I have explained to my 2 young boys that there are a whole load more deadly things much closer to home than Swine Flu and they should take care on their bikes, eat sensibly and enjoy every day for what it is.

NUMBER OF PEOPLE DEAD FROM SWINEFLU THIS YEAR: 1

NUMBER OF PEOPLE DEAD FROM GOOD OLD FASHIONED FLU: 9000

perspective people….perspective.

SQ – your top figure should be 176, in a couple of days.

[quote]I see a pattern developing on this thread :-

Those with a degree in medicine are saying don't worry.
Everyone else seems determined to be anxious regardless
[/quote]

At least one of the people with a degree in medicine is apparently unaware of the current status of a disease that may cause us major problems imminently, unless I'm mistaken. (no offence intended, you cant be expected to know everything about your profession all the time!)

The WHO, the people with degrees in this kinda stuff, stats and prediction, are suggesting this could be pretty major with fairly major consequences (even if not mass death).

I'm open to offers, but I suspect it wont make much difference to me and if I catch it I'm a strong healthy bloke in his late 20s, suspect I'll have little to worry about. I am concerned about my parents and other family members who may not be so fortunate.