julianwilson – Member
Shame they have a higher suicide rate than the UK.
The frequently very fine line between deciding to record 'death by misadventure', 'open verdict' and 'suicide' in the UK (and quite possibly overseas too) makes that a very unreliable comparison.

Better to rely on an unsubstantiated assertion then?

Kimbers – you do like spouting rubbish about exports, if you had bothered to read the Red Book (paragraph C.18 onwards) by now you would have realised that the 25% (not 40%, even you admitted this – see here) of growth from exports is actually a 25% growth due to the reduction in the trade deficit. Is this impossible, of course not, even before the supply side effects of the budget have any effect, year on year growth in exports was 15.5% at the end of the second quarter and increasing, while growth in imports was 14.6% and slowing.

Did you see me taking sides there druidh? Just trying to raise the bar for people evidencing their aguments, innit.

[edit] If we want to start comparing tax vs gdp vs value for money public service vs quality of life, I would start with average lifespan, infant mortality (they don't generally commit suicide), percentage above/below poverty line (if you can find a reliable one), some kind of reliable indicator of literacy age 12 and general educational level at age 18. You never know, some of all that money we have spent on the EU mnight have gone into researching some of it…

thing is even if you did that julian, someone would claim that successive governments have continually moved the goalposts to massage that sort of data.

he sad truth is we need some very stringent cuts to be made and sooner rather than later; there is a huge public sector employment bubble in the UK right now and it simply isn't sustainable. We need to trim the public sector back so that it only provides essential services and tighter limits on efficiency and spending need to be put in place.

Why? Justify that statement.

Look at the accounts of any local authority and you will see evidence of massive overspending and debt. For example Somerset County Council is over £300m in debt. For an organisation that should only be delivering essential local services and taking a risk averse approach to it's activities that seems pretty scandalous to me.

In the last few years I have worked for companies serving local authorities, in councils and, more recently, for a quango. I have also worked alongside a range of publicly funded support bodies. Maybe its because I work to support private sector companies that are struggling to survive, maybe I'm just being cycnical, but I see very little in the public sector (outside of education, health and defence) that should be spared from severe cuts. Personally I'm looking forward to getting back to the private sector.

The current government is trying to do what should have been done a long time ago which is to establish a new baseline for the economy. It won't be easy or pretty but it needs to be done.

Anyway, I shall leave you old women to bitch and moan. I still, for the moment, have a job to be getting on with.

I'm particularly Enjoying your viewpoint on this one TJ – as its akin to the chicken little viewpoint you held on the London mayor – "run run, the sky is falling" the way you (and others) told it at the time, the conquest of big bad boris would see everything slashed to the core and the end of society and public services as we knew them.

It would seem that if you listen to some on here, the inevitable outcome of the ideological passion of the evil Tories to reign in the excesses of "big statism" will see the country turned to something from the last half of Threads 🙄

In fact, I think its even interesting to consider this ideological demand to cut back the state – I'd say that yes, it is part of the conservative ideology to minimise the involvement of the state in peoples lives, however that is a libertatian argument not purely due to economic left/right conservatism, and a counter to the "ideology" under Neue Arbeit where we have watched the state creep further and further into people’s homes and their private lives under the cover of pretending to act in our best interest. The eternal ideology whereby socialists despise freedom and independence, as only by holding power over the people can a socialist government impose its will.

What TJ also chooses to ignore is that by constantly banging on about the proportion of GDP spent on "vital public services" he's shooting his own fox – GDP has shrunk in during the recession, therefore the inevitable result is that Public services must also shrink in cash terms to reflect the reduced income!

An inconvenient truth – public spending will rise in fiscal terms this Parliament according to existing government budget plans

2009-10 (Last Labour year) £669bn
2010-11 £697bn
2011-12 £700bn
2012-13 £711bn
2013-14 £722bn
2014-15 £737bn (£68bn or 10% above Labour level)

Read that again – 10% increase in total government spending during the life of this parliament.

Now, TJ will clearly come back and say that a 10% increase reflects a 25% or more cut in real terms – however the problem there, is that this presupposes an inflationary factor of about 4%. Again, TJ shoots his own fox, since if the effect of these huge "cuts" is to lengthen the recession, then that consequentially reduces inflation… no inflation, no "real terms" cuts…

mefty you are right
– 40% is what weve been told to expect in funding cuts at my institution as such im kind of preoccupied with that figure

however after this report in the ft yesterday
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0510fc78-bbfb-11df-a972-00144feab49a.html

Trade deficit rises to postwar record

I cant share your optimism

Zulu – just your usual piffle – not even worth answering. Your usual trick of stating I say/ have said / will say things I simply don't believe in. Your use of "Neue Arbeit" means you just failed godwins law. Thus you can safely be ignored

Big Dave – the thing is the budgets could be increased hence there is no "force of nature" that means we MUST cut – there are other answers to the issues than cuts on the scale proposed. Budgets in public services are an artificial construct that is politically set. Cuts is one answer, increased revenue is another. Promoting growth is another. Other countries of similar size spend an awful lot more of their GDP on services

And this was the commentary on the previous month, highlighting the danger of putting too much weight in any one month's figures. There is also some anecdotal evidence that some of the import growth is partly due to capital investment which will have long term benefit to the economy. However, the Government's forecast did assume a worse trading position this year – see para C.28 of the Red Book

C.28 Net trade is forecast to subtract from growth in 2010, as relatively
robust import growth outweighs still-sluggish exports. As the recovery in UK
export markets strengthens and sterling’s past depreciation boosts UK export
volumes, net trade is forecast to contribute positively to growth.

Godwin's law doesn't actually mean other points can be ignored TJ – that's just lazy or a convenient way to avoid answering questions that you don't want to… (in fact Godwin's Law pertains only to the fact that Nazis will eventually be raised in an internet discussion, not to the veracity of any points held in connection with it)

As to your assertion that everyone is being conned, that is of course startlingly arrogant – suggesting that everyone apart from you and a select few others (who undoubtedly generally agree with your general political stance) understand the situation fully. Many people do believe that cuts are necessary because of their own experiences of waste in the NHS, councils, etc – that doesn't necessarily mean that cuts will really improve that situation as such but it's a perfectly valid position to hold if you're not just taking it as verbatim from the media.

Clubber – is there anything in Zulus drivel worh answring? I think not.

I will have a go at answering yours tho.

If you understand the position and believe cuts are right then maybe you haven't been conned. The people who have been conned are the ones who believe:-
1) we are a high tax high spend economy when we are not
2) that there is no alternative to cuts – clearly there are alternative
3) that Cameron is not doing this massive and unprecedented cutting out of an ideological drive
4) that we cannot afford our current level of public spending.

The only reason for cuts on this scale is ideological – there is no other reason. Its far harsher than anything Thatcher did.

Yes, I think there is though I don't necessarily agree with his points – explain at least why they're not worth answering – Godwin's is insufficient.

As to the points about idealogy I think you're missing the point. Many people who have experienced the public services first hand can see massive waste. As a result many of them believe that cuts are necessary. For many I reckon that's why they voted Tory. Idealogy is irrelevant – many people simply want to see cuts and though many may lack the real world understanding to see why it's nigh on impossible to really get the 'efficiency savings' that are always touted, it's not inherently an unreasonable position.

I see nothing worth answering in Zulus post. Not a single point worth debating. Claiming I would say this and that is just nonsense – the rest of it is obvious and beside the point.

Which as usual is the problem with debate by the extremes on each side. You strongly disagree so you shut up shop and refuse to debate it. If that's what it comes to then frankly you may as well both just stick to backing up your convictions by only talking to people who agree with you.

Its far harsher than anything Thatcher did.

There must be a Thatcher version of Godwin's law. TJ's law?

"Thursday 25 March 2010 21.40 GMT. Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances."

Clubber – I am quite happy to debate with someone worth debating with – even you in this case 😉

Don't damn me with your faint praise 😉

Just stating that someone isn't worth debating with leaves you open to accusations that you just can't give a decent response, especially for people who are happy to post reams at all other times…

Appears that TJ's had his @rse kicked and has performed the intellectual equivalent of taking his ball home with him.

Hardly. Its just run its course. I don't think there is owt more to say – the various positions have been outlined, explanations sought and proffered, a few gratuitous insults swapped – that about it really.

He won't have done that. He'll be back with some reason why it's all Lady T's fault after he's had his dinner.

Nah – I'm off to drink a large G&T in the bath. decadent? Moi?

Claiming I would say this and that is just nonsense

really TJ? you play reductio-ad-absurdium all the time, indeed, you're playing it with this whole thread, in alleging that the evil tories will cut public services by 40%!

Indeed the allegation of Godwins law is the same, where did I mention the Nazis? I didnt, The Neue Arbeit/New Labour connection is well established as an internet meme, it correlates New Labour with the Socialist East German government, that ruled through fear and control and imposed the Stasi on its people! claiming that I mentioned the nazis is, in your words, just nonsense!

the rest of it is obvious and beside the point.

In other words, not a single point that you can argue against presumably TJ?

I mean, are you accepting that public services should shrink during times of recession, since GDP shrinks?

You're accepting my point that public spending will rise under this extreme cost cutting government

Come on, rather than "not worth debating" you're just showing that you cannot prove me wrong!

Zulu – as nothing you say makes any sense and you continually make up things that I say there is no point in debating with you. None.

Zulu's making sense from where I'm sat. This morning you were banging on about 40% cuts.

z11 it may well be an accepted internet meme (wtfs a meme)

but comparing the newlab government to the nazi party is absurd and offensive
as anyone could tell you

(unless you know of a secret network of concentration camps tony and gordo had built)

but comparing the newlab government to the nazi party is absurd and offensive

He's already said he's on about the East German Socialists. Who were a lovely bunch.

"Own him with some bombers" or "Wee in his shoes" are common memes around here.

sorry that should be

(unless you know of a huge great concrete and barbed wire wall dividing the country tony and gordo had built)

kimbers – who mentioned the Nazi's? TJ playing diversionary tactics – Neue Arbeit is about East germany, the Nazi's didn't have anything to do with the Stasi, as Blairs "non-police" have commonly become known, look at the level of restriction of protest that we've seen over the past decade – look at the 1980's under the Evil she-witch Thatcher and how they criminalised and imprisoned women for protesting outside the country's most sensitive nuclear base (oh, wait,no they didn't did they!) whereas nowadays we arrest people for reading out the names of dead soldiers near the cenotaph

TJ's simply connecting any word in German as a reference to the nazis, which shows his level of intellect and ability to reflect on the debate!

Regardless, we're getting sucked off down a blind alley – back to the subject:

I've listed government official government spending figures above. TJ claims that there are huge swinging cuts that will devastate the nation – I claim thats bullshit, as the actual figures show government spending will rise.

As I said above, he's run around for the past six months playing chicken little telling us how the evil TORY cuts will rape the nation and kill babies.

The claims dont stack up, and he's unwilling to debate now someone's actually called him on them!

(unless you know of a huge great concrete and barbed wire wall dividing the country tony and gordo had built)

Come on. Everyone knows the division of the country was sorted out by the allies and the Soviets. The East Germans specialised in spying on their own citizens and generally being ****. Much like New Labour.

nobody ever changes their mind after arguing on a cycling forum.*

*just an opinion, don't a give a toss about yours.
no offense like.

ok call me stupid but how does the 25% government cuts such as the science budget cuts announced by vince this week

equate to an increase in spending??

**** they maybe but im totally unaware of a stasi-like secret police, i guess they must be very secret!

nobody ever changes their mind after arguing on a cycling forum

not true.. I did last night.. It was very liberating..

but I am a notorious turncoat

not true.. I did last night.. It was very liberating.

Did you flip from Daddy -> Chips or Chips -> Daddy ?

bike ride anyone?

I'm not going to plough through all those somewhat personalised debates above. My own view is that Maggie did royally screw the country in a number of ways for what appear to me to be totally ideological reasons – for that reason alone I refuse to contemplate voting Tory, as my strong suspicion is that most of them agree with what she did. I am therefore highly concerned that our friendly ex-wallpaper salesman of a chancellor has the same ideological "enthusiasm" as she did and that is what is driving the urge to cut the deficit at what can only be described as breakneck speed. It is (I believe) a faster rate of cutting spending than has been tried before almost anywhere (do correct me if I am wrong there) and will surely push the country back into recession or even depression. He seems to be happily ignoring the huge competitive threat to us from China and the Far East, cutting back on education and infrastructure and those things that might just make us compete again. Just my opinion though.

Just on Labour's dismal record of civil liberties mentioned above, I don't see many of their dreadful and paranoid rules being rolled back by the current government? A few weak mutterings perhaps, but no real action.

ID cards cancelled anyone ?

Another query over TJ's statement earlier that:

No other country in the world is following this line

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704515704575282590539605292.html

BERLIN—Germany's government is set to outline billions of euros in budget cuts in coming days to reduce its deficit, despite hopes in the euro zone and the U.S. that Europe's biggest economy will keep the fiscal spigot open to support the region's weak economic recovery.

View Full Image

Reuters
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble speaks at a news conference in Berlin on Wednesday.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling center-right coalition is weighing steps ranging from defense cuts to higher tobacco duties to find roughly €10 billion ($12.22 billion) in savings and extra revenue next year—the first step in a multiyear effort to all but eliminate Germany's budget deficit.

Ms. Merkel has warned that nearly all areas of government spending are under review, including tax perks and benefits that Germans have long held dear. Her cabinet is seeking to agree on the list of cuts on Sunday and Monday. "We must make sure we don't constantly live beyond our means," Ms. Merkel said in a recent speech.

Berlin's growing focus on frugality comes as other countries and many economists are calling on Germany to do the opposite: To stimulate domestic demand a little longer, in order to prop up a euro-zone recovery that is in danger of stalling amid a debt crisis on the bloc's Southern fringe, where countries such as Spain, Portugal and Greece are cutting spending under pressure from creditors.

The German government says it has no choice but to trim its deficit, in order to obey the country's so-called debt brake: a constitutional amendment passed last year that requires virtually balanced budgets from 2016. The motivation behind that goal was to prevent rising public debt from undermining the German welfare state as the country's population ages and shrinks.

The government is tight-lipped about where the cuts will fall, with ministries saying decisions haven't been made yet. German media have speculated that measures could include drastic cuts in the German army, new taxes on air travel and nuclear energy, lower housing benefits for the long-term jobless, a new flat-rate levy for public health care, and an end to many tax breaks. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has said only pensions are safe from cuts, reassuring Germany's powerful and growing lobby of retirees.

I am still waiting for anyone to challenge the ethos that when GDP rises, the government is able to spend more on public services, therefore when GDP shrinks, it is logical and reasonable to consider reducing government spending in line with the available revenues!

Hmmm, ok some I'm a johnny-come-lately to the argument but surely it boils down to this:

We can have a recovery some time soon OR the government debt can be cut.
But not both.
Personally I'd like a recovery as I think that would be more beneficial to more people across the country.

We can have a debate about the size of government we want when we're back on our feet as an economy.

bike ride anyone?

how about a new 3k bike bought on the never-never and maybe a fast depreciating asset also purchased with fictitious money to drive to the trail centers in?
won't that be good for the economy spending a bit of money?
we are the second most indebted nation (personal and private debt) after all so a bit more can't hurt.