This have to be voted through though, Would Labour back it? Would Mays own party back it?

Considering that May’s entire manifesto of just a few months ago has evaporated, what chance has she got off getting any peripheral legislation through?

Yes, that’s unusual for you. Do you really need it spelling out?

I’m not quite sure what you mean by “timing of the cash flows”, but clearly with a higher repayment threshold, everything else being equal (and I understand it will be regarding repayment rates) people will pay less back every year. After 30 years the loan is written off however much is left to pay.

I’ll let you fill in the blanks, but just a recap to help:
– people will pay less back every year
– the loan is written off after 30 years
– more people will fail to pay off their loans

teamhurtmore – Member

How does increasing the threshold make higher levels on non repayment unavoidable?

Just the obvious ways, no hidden considerations- it’ll increase the number of low-paid graduates who never repay a single penny because they never earn enough. And it’ll increase the number who repay a portion but not all, and increase the mean amount that this group doesn’t repay.

The average debt is estimated at just under £48k, and with a starting salary at £25k, is forecast to take 29 years and 4 months to pay off. So it doesn’t take much of a change to push this to 30 years and turn the average graduate into a non-repayer.

And remember we were already pretty much on the knife edge of gain/cost on the whole £9000 fee structure so it doesn’t take much at all to tip it. The last published write-off forecast from 2015 was 45% and rising about 1% year on year, and 48.6% is the break-even compared to the 2010, £3000 structure.

(if it hasn’t already tipped; as I mentioned repayments were on a downward trend right up til the government stopped publishing the forecasts, and cynical me can’t imagine they decided to stop publishing good forecasts in 2015)

So the Marr interview completely changed your opinion of her then? 😈

yment threshold, everything else being equal (and I understand it will be regarding repayment rates) people will pay less back every year.

Ok that was the bit I was missing – I assumed rates would change

Thanks

Still we no evidence on non- repayments if that is the same as defaults. If it’s only because of more people under thrsehold then I get it.

I was equating non-repayment with default

Thx for clarification

Is this assuming annual pay increases well above the current real world level (even for graduates) as it was on the model when I last looked at a loan calculator?

The average debt is estimated at just under £48k, and with a starting salary at £25k, is forecast to take 29 years and 4 months to pay off.

Isn’t this good for capitalism though? Keeps the proles under control.

This latest evolution of the current one switches it from dubious, to undeniably fiscally stupid.

Like I said, it’s a hefty graduate tax in all but name. Sure, some people will pay it off, but most won’t.

The big cost is who it puts off going to uni in the first place. Had a discussion about this amongst my UK science colleagues (all now postdoc or full faculty), and out of about 10 of us, none would have gone to uni in the first place with fees as they are, and about half of us wouldn’t have gone when they were £3k pa.

Sure, not exactly representative of the population as a whole, but nonetheless rather telling if a bunch of people who went on to postgrad and beyond simply wouldn’t have entered tertiary education in the first place.

Oh, and someone mentioned that fees are ok as it’s a user pays model. Not so much. Graduate workers generally benefit the economy far more than non-graduate workers:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/229492/bis-13-858-relationship-between-graduates-and-economic-growth-across-countries.pdf

The big cost is who it puts off going to uni in the first place. Had a discussion about this amongst my UK science colleagues (all now postdoc or full faculty), and out of about 10 of us, none would have gone to uni in the first place with fees as they are, and about half of us wouldn’t have gone when they were £3k pa.

Absolutely agree and worry wtf I want for my kids,

Anyone watching the Borris Johnson special on channel 4?

Amusing but we know how it ends, of to bed

Edit, how much has Maybot aged in a year! compared to how she looked on Marr earlier!

A bad Labour idea multiplied by the Tories.

Don’t forget that a third party also helped us along this ridiculous path. Sadly.

Great posts by the way Northwind. Informative.

You lot need to be nicer to Theresa she is all that stands between us and the swivel eyed loons and Boris the moon unit Johnson

Note – full credit to Binners for the re introduction of the term “moon unit”

telling if a bunch of people who went on to postgrad and beyond simply wouldn’t have entered tertiary education in the first place

Also it seems to be sqewing course choices amongst the less well off towards vocational rather than academic. Medic courses have always been relatively better attended at Oxbridge than say biology amongst state school kids and this patten is worsening from my purely annecdotal evidence.

and this patten is worsening from my purely annecdotal evidence.

I can well believe it. I just would never have aspired to go to uni if I thought I’d be facing the fees today’s students do

Uni is cheap here compared to the US (more per year and 4 years not 3) all good ones still oversubscribed. There should be more means tested grants for lower income families to the point of tuition being zero and living allowance. For middle classes they should still pay.

17 minutes of quality viewing 8)

[video]https://youtu.be/9dXnpycvjwg[/video]

Uni is cheap here compared to the US

Yes but ruddy expensive compared to Finland.

jambalaya – Member
Uni is cheap here compared to the US (more per year and 4 years not 3) all good ones still oversubscribed. There should be more means tested grants for lower income families to the point of tuition being zero and living allowance. For middle classes they should still pay.

Given it’s been explained extensively that the tax payer actually pays a chunk of it and students end up with 30 years of taxation is that a clever idea?
What makes the US system so good? Is it worth that? Does it mean that because something is expensive anything cheaper is good value?
Should nursing cost nearly 30k to get into?

Anyway you forgot to tell us who you think the worst tory PM was

jambalaya – Member
Uni is cheap here compared to the US

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35745324

#youknowwhat

#youknowwhat

🙂

Don’t, people will whinge about him being bullied again when you confront him with facts.

What makes the US system so good?

The US system is shocking for a number of reasons. The loans are commercial bank loans at comemrcial interest rates and on commercial repayment terms. There’s no sliding repayment and the payments don’t cease when your income drops. They come after you.

The other major issue is that good unis cost far more than lesser ones. So bright people from poorer backgrounds are put off going to top unis because they are afraid of the cost. So for two people of the same ability, the richer one gets a better education.

That’s disgusting. We should not aspire to be like the US.

Not just what DrJ posted, but there are lots of bursaries and scholarships available to students in the USA. Not surprising that an increasing proportion of the UK’s brightest and best are heading over there.

Not surprising that an increasing proportion of the UK’s brightest and best are heading over there.

And richest. Dont’ forget richest.

Should nursing cost nearly 30k to get into?

No, and it also shouldn’t require a degree (which is another topic where training is provided/paid for by the employer)

the germans and the french can do tuition for < $1000/year too. i suppose the UK’s education is 9x betterer…

Phillip Hammond is presently making his leadership bid. It’s stirring inspiring stuff!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35745324

Also that article is dated March 2016; I wonder if anything has happened since then that might have a negative effect on the exchange rate?

So Hammond forces the BoJo resignation/sacking then mops up? Or is he too sensible to want the job?

Just had a Tory mp claiming they brought in the minimum wage on R4 (so they are the workers party), the interviewer didn’t say a thing. 😕

#youknowwhat

DrJ come on, really ?

From your link

Oxford $40,000 Harvard $240,000 – that’s two HUNDRED and fourty thousand

University of California at Los Angeles and where … University of Central Lancashire, hardly comparable. My super smart and talented neice from California just started at UCLA a top school for studying Politics. Versus where ? In other random news she helped out a lost looking freshman and got photograpghed by the paparazi as the other student turned out to be Ariel Winter. UCLA and UCL 🙂

@zokes you clearly didn’t read the link

@Del the French have much higher taxes, 50% starts below our 40% plus they have VAT of 5% on food, no zero rated on childrens clothes and full rate on water, gas and electric bills. Stamp duty is 6-8% too, none of tehse lower rated uk bands. That pays for a lot of stuff. Your choice if you want the same. British plublic have voted otherwise.

@DrJ the BBC piece must have used in-state tuition fees, out of state students pay $40,000 pa so a total of $160,000 for the dgeree

Andrea leadsome backing Borris at the Tory conference,

Dominic Grieve just destroyed her ( land the other Brexit fantasists) on a Brexit panel (not hard she’s hardly the smartest, obvs)
He’s pointing out what no other Tory wants to admit, that Brexit is pushing voters into Corbyns camp.

May apparently not going to Johnson speech tomorrow

Rats in a sack!

French unis can be very cheap but it depends on family income .

Colleges and higher education schools can be more expensive , especially with accommodation etc…

University of California at Los Angeles and where … University of Central Lancashire, hardly comparable. My super smart and talented neice from California just started at UCLA a top school for studying Politics. Versus where ?

Erm….. isn’t that the point? It costs virtually the same under the British system to do a degree at UCLAN as it does to do one at UCLA, “one of the top 20 Uni’s in the world”

And as for the ‘out of state’ vs ‘in state’ – far more common to stay in state where the states are much bigger and have far more choice within. So the ‘out of state’ choice is specifically for those that can afford to and I agree they get humped for it (ex Uni friend going through it with her kids)

Aside from the big cities, where can the UK offer the choice?

Your choice if you want the same. British plublic have voted otherwise.

Dang, I missed the referendum on that. 🙁

@zokes you clearly didn’t read the link

I did. The salient point being that institutes like UCLA are in the same ballpark as some pretty mediocre universities in the UK.

You, as usual, just cherry-picked a single data point at the extreme end. I do hope your job doesn’t involve proficiency with numbers and data analysis…

My wife runs a large faculty at a red-brick university, outside of the uk.

In higher education, there is generally no correlation between the cost of the degree (to the student) and the quality of the educational experience.

Universities are run as businesses (often very poorly), it’s just about supply and demand.

batfink – Member

In higher education, there is generally no correlation between the cost of the degree (to the student) and the quality of the educational experience.

Absolutely agree with that. But tbh quantifying quality is a black art. There’s a reason universities quote different stats, if we have a good year in the NSS then that’s the most important stat, if we have a bad year in CUG we’ll decry its artificial, gameable standards or its dependence on unreliable records. And even things like NSS are dubious because practically no students can usefully compare their university with others, it’s like writing a review for the only restaurant you’ve ever eaten in. Graduate employability? Well, ours is shit hot but not because we’re amazing, just because of the course specialisations we have, we’re a very applied uni. If we added a hundred english lit or journalism students it’d crash that number but it wouldn’t mean the university was better or worse

(if we canned our brewing courses it’d improve that stat, because even though literally every brewer that wants a job in the industry gets it, loads of them go self employed and set up their own brewery or distillery and that doesn’t count. It’s one of our top 3 courses and universally respected and envied, but it hurts our stats in a stupid way)

Our staff-per-student rate is good because quite a lot of our subjects are tutor-intensive, but again that’s not better or worse, it’s just because of our course focus. But it makes us look good. But if your details aren’t right in the HR system you don’t count (I forgot to list my degree when I set myself up, so I didn’t used to count as a qualified member of staff, and that hurt the stats… But I don’t teach! So it makes **** all real difference anyway. If one of our cleaners has a degree (in english lit probably, or fashion marketing) it improves that stat- if we hire an extra 10 security guards with no degree it hurts it. And oh do we spend a lot of time thinking about this sort of bullshit, like everyone else)

Essentially every metric is broken in some exciting way so all you can really do is throw them all in a bucket and stir them and assume that it averages out

Aside; this isn’t really my field so there’s probably some groteque oversimplifications in there, we just use the end numbers.

😈

OPINIONS BELONG TO THE INDIVIDUAL AND ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF TOP SECRET UNIVERSITY 😆

Joking aside though, immediate earnings and year 1 salaries just aren’t a good gauge of course quality. It’s relevant, and more so with some than others- you’re daft if you do an accountancy degree from an institution that’s not showing good progression- but it’s only partly related to quality. And lots of courses are building blocks- so fashion marketing, that I mentioned there, you’re probably then doing internships or going it alone or generally working up in the industry and paying your dues, and hopefully everyone who goes onto the course knows it’s a tough ride. Divinity’s a classic, who thinks you can judge the value of a divinity course by your graduate earnings? League tables, basically, and nobody else.

People are understandably money-focused but it’s a sad way to judge educational value.