Looks like it’s started… confirmed or very likely seem to be:

Warren Barguil to Fortuneo-Oscaro – Seems odd on the face of it but he’s quoted as saying he doesn’t want to race for GC, he wants to race for stages in grand tours. Basically he’s going “home” as it’s his local team and he raced for their early incarnation as a stagiere. Brings Amaël Moinard in at the same time.

Mickel Nieve to Orica-Scott – Not sure this has been confirmed but Froome mentioned it in an interview so it’s done. Leaves a big hole in Sky’s grand tour ultimate lineup. Matteo Trentin supposedly has signed for Orica too. Looks like a big push for becomine a proper grand tour team.

Alexander Kristoff to UAE – Meh. His palmares after his classics wins a few years ago haven’t been amazing so not surprised that Katusha don’t want to pay what he’s asking

Peter Kennaugh to Bora – They reckon he can be a 1-week race leader. Shame for Sky, good for him I guess but he’d have to hope he’s not racing the 1-week races with either Sagan or Majka.

Daniel Oss to Bora – Good move for Bora, not disastrous for BMC

Bryan Coquard (probably) to Vital-Concept – Jerome Pineau’s new team. Supposedly built around Coquard. Other than going to work with a mate, seems a bit of a strange one.

Tony Gallopin to AG2R – Good move for AG2R as it adds more flexibility to their lineup. Bit of a shame for Lotto-Soudal as he’s one of their most visible riders (apart from Thomas De Gendt) in grand tours when Greipel isn’t up there.

Obviously Landa to Movistar seems a matter of time, Aru to UAE seems likely and there’s still the question mark over the Quintana rumours linking him to Astana (reasonable) or Sky (bizarre). Jungels and Alaphilippe have resigned for Quickstep so that team is not dying at the end of the season but both Martin and Kittel are out of contract. That’s only so far in the last 2 and a bit days too.

In the women’s peloton, Katarzyna Niewiadoma moving to Canyon-SRAM is a pretty big deal; great for her a big blow for WM3/Vos.

Posted similar elsewhere, but I don’t really see Nieve as that great a loss for Sky. Poels will be back in action next year, and Ellisonde and Rosa should be able to slot in and fill Nieve’s role.

Will be interesting to see how the Landa/Quintana situation works out.
I doubt there’s much of a queue of teams waiting to get hold of Quintana, as he just wont fit in for many of them. And for Landa, he’s not going to get the chances he wants whilst Quintana and Valverde are both still at Movistar.

Barguil is a crazy move, but french teams love french riders and vice versa.
Seems like pressing the career self destruct button though.

And for Landa, he’s not going to get the chances he wants whilst Quintana and Valverde are both still at Movistar.

Valverde has been more of a 1 day / 1 week racer in recent years with a second job as domestique in the grand tours. I guess there are also questions about how well he can recover from that horrible crash. I suspect Quintana will get first pick of the grand tours and then Landa can have a go at whatever’s left. Whatever happens I hope they let him really ride as his style is a bit at-odds with his current team.

As for Barguil’s move, I think it makes perfect sense. He doesn’t want to be a GC rider so needs to be at a team that will let him attack and take lots of risks. See INRNG’s commentary here: http://inrng.com/2017/08/warren-barguil-signs-with-fortuneo-oscaro/

Valverde is a spent force, so suits Movistar to have another leader as a World Tour team with multiple GT commitments.

Kennaugh is a bit too fragile / never quite realised his potential; will never be a Kwiato and probably realises it. If I were Sky I’d rather give Kwiato a pay-rise to get him to stay as he’s fast-becoming the 1-day rider to succeed PhilGil

Orica-Scott realise they need to bolster their roster to support the Yates’ twins GT aspirations.

France is desperate for a French LeTour winner, but can’t see them riding for a French team.

He doesn’t want to be a GC rider

Which is a shame as with the right team he really could be right up there challenging for overall wins or the podium at least. He also may find it hard to go on raids now his card has been marked.

Warren Barguil to Fortuneo-Oscaro – Seems odd on the face of it

Barguil is a crazy move, but french teams love french riders and vice versa.
Seems like pressing the career self destruct button though.

Barguil wants to be an attacking stage hunter, if he went anywhere else he’d either be a GC leader which he doesn’t want, or be riding for one as a mountain domestique (even Sunweb are building around Dumoulin now) so not that many attractive options that can pay him what he’s worth to do what he wants to do?

Bryan Coquard (probably) to Vital-Concept – Jerome Pineau’s new team. Supposedly built around Coquard. Other than going to work with a mate, seems a bit of a strange one

Bouhanni is stupendously well paid to under-perform as a sprinter with a French Pro Conti team so I assume Coquard will be handsomely rewarded, and like Barguil at Fortuneo has guaranteed their team ‘wild card’ TdeF entries so will get to race on the biggest stage.

Jungels and Alaphilippe have resigned

re-signed 😉

I got the impression WM3 was funded on the basis of Vos, and they don’t have the money to pay what Niewiadoma is now worth (all relative compared to mens racing, obviously).

Bouhanni is stupendously well paid to under-perform as a sprinter with a French Pro Conti team so I assume Coquard will be handsomely rewarded

It’s a pretty ballsy move. He could easily be consigning himself to 2nd-tier racing for a few years as I doubt they’ll invite them to the tour, dauphine or even Paris-Nice as a first year team; the risk is too great for the organisers.

Bouhanni is a strange one. You get the feeling he still has the pace but struggles to get people to work for him properly. That said, he’s performing where you’d expect a pro-conti sprinter to perform against top World Tour sprinters 🙂

I love the idea of Barguil heading home, heading to a decent family run French Squad full of friends and old mates. Brilliant, wild card entries to ASO events, stars who can perform on the world stage and at least punt it out there against vastly €m supported ProConts and Conts who seem to get in every race for nothing other than being a mate of Prui’s. He’ll do very well there and Fortuneo have a few quid to support them and by all accounts Oscaro do too, but I hope they don’t just chuck money at it, let the talent ride.

Kristoff, yer right. Sadly his days are behind him, reminds me in some way as Hushoft who did more, but in a similar way. Katusha have issues, can’t see them doing much unless Tony gets back his “woohoo”.

Quinty to Sky? I’ve just spat my Crayfish sandwich out. Not a chance, never ever.
Landa and Mov, done deal.

Kennagh to Bora, utterly excellent idea. He’ll do well there, Miyka will ride him up to the level needed. It’s about time for Kennagh to move, he’s always been suppressed by “the machine” IMO and given the options I reckon he’d make a fantastic one day classics specialist in the monuments.. Daniel OSS is a very very good uber Domestique who has on occasion been allowed to show his true talent, punts off the front in most of his races and Bora could do with some aggressive tactics in the races where Sagan struggles.

Neive to Orica… originally I thought this a joke. You know a speculative press release to agin interest, but no. I think he’s there to protect and mentor the Yates brothers, certainly they need help in the Bumps..

And Tony to AG2r, well.l never thought that would happen. Once in Lotto it’s very hard to leave, a true classics rider there is. I wonder if AG2r want to perform properly in the early classics now? Makes me think he’ll be the leader in these monuments bringing talent and class to a once faltering AG2r classics squad. A really good signing if ever there was one.

IMO, Obvz

Good thread.

I’ll level with you, I’ve not had any calls.

It’s a pretty ballsy move. He could easily be consigning himself to 2nd-tier racing for a few years as I doubt they’ll invite them to the tour, dauphine or even Paris-Nice as a first year team; the risk is too great for the organisers.

I’d suggest NOT inviting double stage and polka dot jersey winner and beloved whimsical flaneur Barguil to the Tour will be the riskier, ballsier move.

I was talking about Coquard. Barguil is going to a team that’s most definitely NOT a first-year team 😉

Katusha have issues, can’t see them doing much unless Tony gets back his “woohoo”.

There’s talk that Alpecin may up their budget to get Kittel from Quickstep but that could just be that, talk. Given Katusha’s absolutely awful year (barring London and Tour de Suisse), it’d have to be a lot of money to convince Kittel to jump ship.

Good luck to Barguil, refreshing to see someone so talented doing it his own way.

Also interested to see Kennaugh at Bora, he seems to be frustrated at Sky – so let’s see what he can do now.

Hope Movistar have promised Landa leadership at the TdF next year as part of the deal.

I was talking about Coquard. Barguil is going to a team that’s most definitely NOT a first-year team

details schmetails 😉 I would have thought the same would apply though that as a big French rider he guarantees the team wild cards to ASO-run World Tour races. Tough on the likes of Wanty Group Gobert though, won’t be many wild card invites free for non-French teams.

I think Barguil has it right – at the moment. He can step up to GC later, plenty of time. That’s my, erm, expert opinion anyway (AKA what I reckon).

Re the Kennaugh move from SKY, must have smarted not being picked for the TDF team. I was listening to him chatting with Chris Froome whilst warming down after a stage of the Tour of Cataluña in May, they must have thought that there were only Spanish speakers there as he was having a real moan about wanting to get home straight after the race as he was burnt out after several weeks away (doing what most of us would kill for). Not really the best message to be sending to your team leader as well.

Valverde is a spent force,

Erm…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alejandro_Valverde#2017

I would have thought the same would apply though that as a big French rider he guarantees the team wild cards to ASO-run World Tour races

Not a brand new team with someone like Coquard who is sort of a name but not a name. Tommy V and Chava could get DE into the Tour, I don’t think Coquard would even with DE having pedigree. So unless the new team has some good results it’ll be a couple of years before the ASO give them a spot at the Tour

Really hope Landa is there as team leader for Movistar at tdf next year. He looks to be capable of great things.

Sorry, only just spotted this

Ellisonde and Rosa should be able to slot in and fill Nieve’s role.

Should have said, Diego Rosa is rumoured to be heading off to UAE as well.

Some other rumours…

Niki Terpstra to Lotto Jumbo
Domenico Pozzovivo to Bahrain Merica
Morkov and Bystrom following Kristoff to UAE
Cam Meyer BACK to Orica-Scott after leaving them for personal issues a while back
Jempy Drucker to AG2R (joining Ben Gastauer… Luxembourg superteam now 😉 )

One website also suggests that Simon Gerrans is on the move but doesn’t say where to. He’s another who’s had a pretty quiet year by his own standards so maybe with the influx of new riders Orica aren’t that fussed about him.

Sky has the problem of finding mercenary riders now, they know who will be gc next so your either working for or going it alone. Be interesting to see next year’s line up as they didn’t look as solid this year

I reckon if there had been 5 or so summit finishes, Sky would have looked a lot more like they usually do. I don’t think Cannondale, AG2R etc have the depth to go deep day after day.

That said, many many riders would jump at a chance of being on a tour winning team. Not everyone can win GC so being on a GC winning team is the next best thing.

Few more for over the weekend

Bertie to retire – Pretty obvious after the tour.
Philippe Gilbert re-signed for Quickstep – Pretty obvious too
Magnus Cort Nielsen to Astana and Jens Keukeleire to Lotto-Soudal – Part of Orica’s rebuilding into a GC team?
Dayer Quintana to Astana – brother of Nairo…

So…

My predictions for key GC moves:
Landa to Movistar
Quintana to Astana
Aru to Trek

Nathan Haas to Katusha-Alpecin. Curious move but I guess it gives them three or four decent climbers now

Didn’t hear about Niki to LJ, where’s that info from? Hmmm, would fit but why move from QS? Seems odd.

Haas apparently moving into a Classics role for KA, which would indeed help bolster Zakarin, Zabel, Martin trio..

Didn’t hear about Niki to LJ, where’s that info from? Hmmm, would fit but why move from QS? Seems odd.

Money I’d assume. And fills the hole left by Vanmarcke as an obvious classics leader.

Also do they really need Terpstra with Gilbert on the team particularly as he had a quiet year. Also LJ is a Dutch team so he may be looking for that and they may want some local sponsor appeal.

Rumour is that Landa is doing the Vuelta which might put his rumoured move to Movistar in a different light.

I thought Landa had said he wasn’t doing the Vuelta with a focus on Lombardia. Also can’t really see him challenging at the Vuelta having done the Giro and Tour.

Quintana to Astana is an interesting possibility. They have Miguel Angel Lopez who is probably the next Quintana but who had a injury hit season and maybe still needs a couple of seasons. Could be good for him to have a few seasons working with Quintana.

It’d be a huge slap in the face for Quintana to be told “Yeah, you’ve won two Grand Tours but you’re never winning the TdF so we’re ripping up your 2018 contract and replacing you”. Usually winning a grand tour or two makes you pretty safe. You know, unless you’re Cobo or Horner and go so crazy with the chemicals that even the most doping-tolerant team sponsor can’t turn a blind eye.

Ian Boswell off to Katusha now. Quite a few leaving Sky

Quintana claims he’s staying at Movistar…

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/quintana-expected-to-stay-at-movistar-despite-transfer-reports/

Interesting that the article claims that some of the falling out was down to Quintana wanting to do the double against Movistar’s advice, given that his father was complaining about Movistar burning him out by making him do the double.

Not a move, but the rolling windbreak has resigned at Sky:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/domestique-christian-knees-re-signs-with-team-sky-for-two-more-years/
Guess he’s got an almost guaranteed TDF spot next year seeing as Rowe decided snapping his leg in half would be fun.

Landa saying decision still not been made. Anyone see him anywhere but Movistar next year with insiders saying the deal is done? Interesting to hear him say that he’s not going to work for any other rider next year. I’d also assume he’ll want a shot at the Tour.

With Contador retiring that leaves a bit of a gap at Trek. Landa could end up there or go to which ever team loses their GC guy to Trek.

My guess is that he’s asking for a lot of money and teams are struggling to find the budget for him.

As expected, Landa’s move to Movistar confirmed

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-08-15/team-skys-mikel-landa-switches-to-rivals-movistar-on-a-a-two-year-contract/

Kittel signs for Katusha

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/marcel-kittel-signs-two-year-deal-with-katusha-alpecin/

Not unexpected. Imagine Alpecin are fronting much of the cash for Kittel. Good for Gaviria.

Missed the bit about Viviani moving to Quick Step. No surprise there.

Have I missed sky making any new signings? Their rosta must be a bit low.