Syria has been **** for some time, but over the last 3 – 6 months there seems to be a large increase in the number of people fleeing.

Is this true or is it just the reporting is focused on it? Or if it is true has the situation in Syria suddenly worsened? I know it is auwful over there but from what i have read it has been unlivable for some time Has there been a big offensive by Assad? or has Lebanon been overwelmec and more are trying to cross the med?

All the reporting just states there are loads of refugees and a crisis’s but I have not seen an explaintion of why the rate of fleeing has increased has increased, or if the rate is constant why the destination has shifted.

I want refferneces!

This not about what is right or wrong, or questioning suffering but about the apparent change in the situation.

IS now controls half of Syria. Western governments determination to make it as difficult as possible for the Syrian regime to defeat terrorists has worked massively in IS’s favour.

NB : When I say IS now controls half of Syria I’m referring to the fact that they can now operate with impunity in half of Syria.

EDIT : The UK government only classed IS as a terrorist organisation just over a year ago, by then IS had been committing acts of terrorism and taking control of areas in Syria for several years.

ISIS terror group banned under UK law

“The Home Office has banned the al Qaida-inspired extremist group behind an ongoing and bloody insurgency in Iraq under UK terrorism laws.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as ISIS, is one of five terror organisations proscribed by the Home Office, making membership and support for them a criminal offence”. July 2014

Last year IS started taking control of large chunks of Iraq, that’s when the UK government decided to class them as terrorists.

IS now controls half of Syria. Western governments determination to make it as difficult as possible for the Syrian regime to defeat terrorists has worked massively in IS’s favour.

+1

The Russians have got the right idea.

Europe plus the United States want to get rid of ISIS, yet at the same time they choose to ignore one of the few players that could put ISIS down for good. If we actually decided to play friendly with the Russians, Assad and Iran then we might actually end up being able to hold constructive talks with all three countries in the not too distant future.

But noooo, let’s throw a few bombs, not actually get involved properly and yet somehow manage to piss every player off in the region.

**** brilliant strategy and diplomacy right there….maybe it’s on purpose….maybe Nato just want to see the entire region burn. It’s that or they are idiots.

People have been leaving in drover for ages,it’s just flavour of the month as far as news is concerned. There is a reason we are told what’s important and what’s not. Dunno what it is tho

one of the news reports channel 4 iirc was suggesting the “stagnant” life was becoming too much for most in the camps bordering syria throw in the chance of a fresh start in say germany or sweden (imagined or otherwise). Also it can’t be easy being 14-40 yo male, ISIS recruiters, Assad recruiters, Free Syrian Army Recruiters, etc etc trolling the camps. Probably Assad secret police stooges taking notes on who you speak to with threats to family still in Syria. So getting away from it all does sound like a good idea.

spchantler – Member
People have been leaving in drover for ages,it’s just flavour of the month as far as news is concerned. There is a reason we are told what’s important and what’s not. Dunno what it is tho

That was my initial thought that it is just the media but there does seem to be more reaction from. Authorities.

Klunk – Member
one of the news reports channel 4 iirc was suggesting the “stagnant” life was becoming too much for most in the camps bordering syria throw in the chance of a fresh start in say germany or sweden (imagined or otherwise). Also it can’t be easy being 14-40 yo male, ISIS recruiters, Assad recruiters, Free Syrian Army Recruiters, etc etc trolling the camps. Probably Assad secret police stooges taking notes on who you speak to with threats to family still in Syria. So getting away from it all does sound like a good idea.

No denying the problems there but from my reading (out of date by a few month) this has been like this for more than the last 2-3 months, more like 2-3 years

@ernie_lynch

So have IS made a lot of teritorial gains in the past few months? I know they have been active in syria for some time. That would explain some things. I don’t think how the UK gov classifies IS makes any difference outside of political circles.

I don’t think how the UK gov classifies IS makes any difference outside of political circles.

Really ? Why do you think the UK government bothers having a list of banned/proscribed terrorist organisations then ?

Don’t you think it effects logistic support or the legality of military targets ?

Don’t you think it effects logistic support or the legality of military targets ?

I will qualify that to I don’t think it makes a difference to IS or the Syrian people.

@mrhoppy no difference to a year a go! So does not explain the increase.

The Turks bombing them is new and leading to increased numbers of Kurds leaving.

That is a good point. Any idea of the portion of this? Doubt if there is any way to tell.

OP there have been millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan for some time. The EU reaction to migrants making the sea crossing from Libya, ie rescuing them and taking them to Italy has encouraged the Syrian refugees to leave the camps and try the same. The German announcement it would take all Syrians who arrived legally has encouraged many to make the journey illegally on the basis they won’t be refused. When the first train of 2000 migrants arrived in Munich the Germans identified 500 or 25% who had no chance of asylum as they came from Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Moldovia etc – chancers if you like trying their luck.

The migrant crises isn’t new and is by no means a purely Syrian issues. Vice news did an excellent series of pieces called “Europe or Die” covering migrants from Africa and Middle East arriving via land route between Morocco and Spian, via boat from Libya including the migrant detention centres in Libya holding Africans who where trying to get to Europe and of course the flow of refugees into Greece both Middle Eastern and African.

Link here https://news.vice.com/show/europe-or-die

tbh, I think they’ve lost syria and are clueless.

An old article but it explains a lot.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10311007/Syria-nearly-half-rebel-fighters-are-jihadists-or-hardline-Islamists-says-IHS-Janes-report.html

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeE4Ux4t9Vw[/video]

Interesting point about German policy possibly changing behavoir. I’ve wondered that too if there had been a Turkish change in policy as I know they have had lots for some time.

They did a piece about this on radio 4 last week – additional to the factors mentioned above were the time it takes for people to save up the money to travel, and in some cases pay the smuggling gangs.

As some one else said I think Putin is in the right and the US once again in the wrong,but that will change nothing as the US storms on destabilizing governments it does not like /agree with and leaving others to clean up its mess just like korea vietnam south america bla bla bla then go home behind there nice safe borders far across the sea salute the flag and say mission accomplished god bless America 🙄

The reports last night on chemical weapons use by all sides may also be prompting more movement, from Syria to overcrowded camps and from camps to elsewhere.

People have been in the refugee camps in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon for years. Conditions are pretty grim. But the UN says it can no longer fund the camps, so things have deteriorated further.

Theres no end in sight to the war, and no chance of returning home, so people have obviously reached the point, as you would, where you think… “**** this!!”. You might as well take your chances in a leaky boat.

I get the feeling that just as we didn’t know the true horror of the holocaust until the camps were liberated at the end of the second world war, I imagine there are all manner of atrocities being committed in Syria by Assad and ISIS on huge scale, that will come to light and make it fairly obvious why everyone was leaving

Watch the Hungarian border. They’ve razor-wired most of it except for one last gap through which these poor sods are still coming, now in the rain and cold. Apparently, the Hungarians are sending in the army to cover this gap. What then? Bullets? And suppose they keep coming (which they will) – after all, they’ve come from a war zone. There’s no going back whatever happens.

I was thinking much the same last night Wopster, watching that on the news. When you’ve fled the medieval brutality of ISIS and Assad, I doubt a bit of razor wire and some European rozzers are likely to strike fear into your heart, or pose much of a disinsentive

It’s ironic that the Polish government seems to have closed its doors to them.

It’s ironic that the Polish government seems to have closed its doors to them.

Having your freedom of movement cake, and eating it?

Germany IMO have played this all wrong effectively encouraging them without thinking of the impact on countries close to Germany who are a lot poorer and have less capacity.

As the weather gets worse the flow will reduce and hopefully give Europe a chance to come up with a more coordinated solution, unfortunately with too many European self interests I doubt it.

Read about the chemical weapons manufacturing this morning. Binner is probably right with the truth coming out later. Interesting about the camps un funding being cut.

@hels do you know the name of the program?

A colleague of mine works out in the Med on a ship off the north African coast. He was talking to me about getting called up to go and intercept seriously overcrowded fishing boats trying to make it across. On a couple of occasions the people onboard would rush over to one side of the boat causing it to capsize. The photos of the survivors/bodies on deck were horrific. This was last summer, so yes it has been going on for quite a while. There is a definite increase in the summer months though due to the calmer weather etc. Its probably a lot worse this summer though. I guess as the situation continues to deteriorate/increase in desperation.

It’s ironic that the Polish government seems to have closed its doors to them.

I’ve posted this so many times now

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3RWGwzzYT0[/video]

Proper, safe UN camps might help people to stay. We managed to build Camp Bastion out of the desert in Afghanistan, and we could do it again close to Syria. The UN and the EU surely have the resources to fund this. The local economies of Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon would benefit by providing the materials, transport and labour

At some point Syria will be rebuilt and the people in those camps will have the necessary skills (doctors, engineers, teachers, etc) between them

We did the same in Zire/congo for the Rwandans and when it was all over they went back home a better solution than distributing an entire people around the world imo.

And Germany is just hovering up cheap labor and does not give a toss for the country’s around it that are inconvenienced

At some point Syria will be rebuilt and the people in those camps will have the necessary skills (doctors, engineers, teachers, etc) between them

Are you suggesting that we should or could cooperate with IS?

Or are you suggesting that IS will lose, despite all the evidence that they are winning?

The stark reality is that as the direct result of interference by Western countries such as the US, the UK, and France, and their stooges such as Saudi Arabia, the most likely winners in this conflict unless there is a massive change in Western foreign policy is IS.

Are you suggesting that we should or could cooperate with IS?

No

…unless there is a massive change in Western foreign policy

Something needs to change, and the reality is that while IS has a firm foothold many ordinary people there aren’t IS (the tip of that iceberg is heading for the EU). Do we abandon those people who can’t/won’t travel or do we offer them a safe haven until we understand the implications of the issues?

You can say what you like about declining European productivity, but they can’t half put a fence up in a hurry.

Surely the industry to be in at the moment is fencing supplies (not the sword fightingy type)

🙂