sbob – Member

An electorate that is in favour of the union?

I did correct you on this earlier, quite happy to do it again, at the moment a minority of the electorate are in favour of the union. 48% was the last major poll result, down from 49%.

One of the things that nobody seems to be thinking about or talking about just now- even in the event of a no vote, we’ll be looking at a very large minority who’ve essentially rejected the status quo. That should be a wake up call- more people look set to vote Yes for independence, than voted yes for the current government. That ought to be a wake up call for the government. It’s not like a vote against a political party, it’s a vote against the entire system. Will it be? Past evidence suggests not.

sbob – Member
If you don’t think the polls hold weight, you should suggest to your comrades to stop referring to them.

And what,believe instead your BS from a couple of pages ago about never having met a yes voter? 🙄

Northwind – Member

I did correct you on this earlier, quite happy to do it again, at the moment a minority of the electorate are in favour of the union.

If you’re going to be pedantic, as you know full well what I mean, then it is a minority that are undecided, with the next biggest group being in favour of independence, and the biggest group being in favour of the union, according to the polls.

If only the EU was subject to the Parliament Act.

duckman – Member

And what,believe instead your BS from a couple of pages ago about never having met a yes voter?

It isn’t bullshit, it’s a statement of fact.
Maybe you missed out the bit where I deliberately and carefully explained that I live in England and so the Scots that I meet tend to do business or work here.
It shouldn’t take too much imagination to work out that these people are more likely to appreciate the benefits of union.
If I lived and worked in Scotland then obviously I would encounter people sitting on both sides of the fence.
I don’t think all that is particularly difficult to understand.

sbob – Member

If you’re going to be pedantic, as you know full well what I mean, then it is a minority that are undecided, with the next biggest group being in favour of independence, and the biggest group being in favour of the union, according to the polls.

It’s not pedantry, just statements of fact, the moment the majority of the electorate don’t support the union- they’re either against, or undecided. So quite different from what you said.

Northwind – Member

It’s not pedantry, just statements of fact, the moment the majority of the electorate don’t support the union- they’re either against, or undecided. So quite different from what you said.

So you’re in agreement that the largest group according to the polls are in favour of union?

Yep. Are you in agreement that according to the polls, the majority of the electorate are not? (which is the opposite of what you said earlier?)

Well in this somewhat pointless debate about how to refer to the polling figures, that’s not quite accurate, because there isn’t a majority of the electorate who are not in favour of the union. There is a majority who haven’t (yet) expressed a preference in favour of the union. Just as there is a slightly smaller majority who haven’t (yet) expressed that they’re not in favour of the union.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-27002723

Good old impartial beeb at it again, this is actually a thing of beauty, bye bye helensburgh! 😆

No, because “undecided” does not mean “not in favour”.
The majority, that is the largest group of the sample (look it up, it’s a perfectly valid definition) are in favour of union.

I could also say that the majority are against independence, even by your definition.
We’ve all seen the polls, there is no need to pretend that the yes vote is in the lead.

aracer – Member

There is a majority who haven’t (yet) expressed a preference in favour of the union.

Haha, yes that’s exactly what the polls say, all those people who say they’re undecided actually are in favour of the union but just haven’t said so yet.

I think as we approach the 100th page everyone should just agree to disagree, or atleast agree that there are benefits of independence and there are benefits of union. Ultimately the choice is down to personal instinct. 😆

technically that is a simple majority rather than a majority – ie what FPTP delivers – most votes not [ necessarily] an actual majority
Mathematically it is

A majority is a subset of a set consisting of more than half of the set’s elements. This can be compared to a plurality, which is a subset larger than any other subset considered; i.e. a plurality is not necessarily a majority as the largest subset considered may consist of less than half the set’s elements

It isn’t bullshit, it’s a statement of fact.

I am still saying BS for a claim that you met hundreds and not one was in favour wherever you do your sample except for a No campaign rally.

seosamh77 – Member

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-27002723

Good old impartial beeb at it again, this is actually a thing of beauty, bye bye helensburgh!

It has been posted, but I didn’t watch it before as I could sense the cringeworthiness of it.
It still contains some valid points, despite the bias.

Well clearly they’re going to jump one way or the other (or maybe just not vote, in which case the majority of those who’ve expressed a preference are in favour of the union), and it seems plausible that a significant number will turn out to be in favour of the union, so I’m not quite sure what’s wrong with that statement.

Only 3 pages to go, can’t stop now. Does anybody on this thread actually think they’re going to change the mind of anybody else on it, or that it will have any significance in the vote?

aracer – Member
Only 3 pages to go, can’t stop now. Does anybody on this thread actually think they’re going to change the mind of anybody else on it, or that it will have any significance in the vote?

Not in the slightest, I convinced everyone I need to ages ago in person. Which I think is a major difference in the 2 campaigns, on the ground at grass roots level the yes camp is very active, the no camp is pretty non existent*

*I do understand that my circles will be biased towards yes but it’s still the sense I get, why I think the polls are skewed, time will tell on that obviously.

I am still saying BS for a claim that you met hundreds and not one was in favour wherever you do your sample except for a No campaign rally.

That wasn’t my claim.
Your level of comprehension is challenging your level of literacy.

sbob – Member

The majority, that is the largest group of the sample (look it up, it’s a perfectly valid definition)

No, a simple majority is not the same as a majority, you’re confusing the two. Not that it actually matters at all, since what you actually said was: “An electorate that is in favour of the union?”

So definitions of the word majority don’t come into it, the polls show that the electorate is not, currently, in favour of the union. Course they are also not in favour of independence either. That’s what undecided means, it’s not a binary question.

I think no matter what side you’re on, having only 48% of the population in favour of the union should be eye-opening and worrying. It is not a sign of a healthy system.

….I think the polls are skewed, time will tell on that obviously.

If the polls are “skewed” then it will cost the polling companies dearly. No one wants to commission opinion polls and hand over large amounts of money to companies which provide false results. Their entire business depends on a reputation for accuracy. Without that they are finished.

Although I can see that you believe just how wrong they are by your comment that you convinced everyone you needed to “ages ago”. You obviously believe that’s it’s been in the bag for a very long time.

No one can doubt your faith that’s for sure, despite the fact that it defies accepted wisdom.

TBH if the polls don’t favour the Yes vote, I’d be surprised- much easier to say Yes in a meaningless poll than at a polling booth, I think the majority of last-minute switches will be to No, though at the moment the majority of switches are away from No to Undecided. Just kind of the nature of polls.

Like

I think no matter what side you’re on, having only 48% of the population in favour of the union should be eye-opening and worrying. It is not a sign of a healthy system.

I should have thought that those on one side would find having only 39% of the population in favour of independence far more worrying – though I guess those people are in a minority 😉

Probably a reasonable analysis on the polls – as it’s harder to imagine people not wanting to admit they’re voting Yes – though I’d certainly not want to bet my house on it.

If the polls are “skewed” then it will cost the polling companies dearly. No one wants to commission opinion polls and hand over large amounts of money to companies which provide false results. Their entire business depends on a reputation for accuracy. Without that they are finished.

Although I can see that you believe just how wrong they are by your comment that you convinced everyone you needed to “ages ago”. You obviously believe that’s it’s been in the bag for a very long time.

No one can doubt your faith that’s for sure, despite the fact that it defies accepted wisdom.I don’t believe its deliberate btw. Like I say time will tell. I am happy to go with whatever democracy ultimately says, until next time! 😆

I don’t believe its in the bag either just that its much closer than suggested and that my circles aren’t where the debate will be won.

TBH if the polls don’t favour the Yes vote, I’d be surprised- much easier to say Yes in a meaningless poll than at a polling booth

If that’s true then I would expect the polling companies to be aware of it and to tailor their questions in such a way as not to give the Yes vote a false advantage in their poll. As I say, their entire business depends on a reputation for accuracy.

Maybe you missed out the bit where I deliberately and carefully explained that I live in England and so the Scots that I meet tend to do business or work here.
It shouldn’t take too much imagination to work out that these people are more likely to appreciate the benefits of union.

http://www.scotlandnow.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scots-expats-vote-yes-independence-3413495

64% of Scottish ex-pats polled in favour of independence.

Ah, so if they vote Yes they’ll get another chance to make the right choice in a few years time?

ernie – I don’t think it’s an issue which can be adjusted out by careful choice of question. Remember who won the ’92 election according to the polls?

Ah – an online poll 😆

aracer – Member
Ah, so if they vote Yes they’ll get another chance to make the right choice in a few years time?

dunno, if there was a will in scotland, that’d be up to the rUK to decide if they wanted to draw up a new treaty. In a future of infinite possibilities I’d imagine it could happen, aye.

aracer – Member

I should have thought that those on one side would find having only 39% of the population in favour of independence far more worrying

Course they’ll find it worrying, but it’s a different thing. Fear of change is always a huge demotivator, you can see that every day, even when the change is 100% for the better. And this is some change, with lots of reasonable doubts, and huge forces of inertia. The fact is, No is the easier sell. And frankly should probably be selling better than it is.

But even a No vote isn’t a vote for the status quo- it’s a vote for union, not necessarily the union as it stands, it brings with it everyone who thinks the UK needs to be better but wants to fix it rather than leave it.

So what proportion are we left with that are really happy with the status quo? What proportion would be a good result? Not 51%.

This isn’t just a scottish thing of course, the indy referendum just brings it into the spotlight.

So would 51% in favour of independence be a good result?

I’m just not sure why in a vote for independence, which presumably wouldn’t have been called if there was thought to be no chance of winning it’s so shocking that there isn’t an overwhelming majority against it. Or is it the fact the referendum was called which is shocking?

ernie – I don’t think it’s an issue which can be adjusted out by careful choice of question. Remember who won the ’92 election according to the polls?

You can choose how you ask a question, it can be so that it is a yes or no answer or it can be ‘do you agree or disagree’ with a statement, for example. Polling companies have fair amount of expertise on these matters.

And yes, I do recall ’92 election campaign which is famous because the opinion polls got it uncharacteristically wrong. People were shocked because it was rare for opinion polls to be so wrong. I’m sure that in the 20 years since then the polling companies have done everything to ensure no repeat of that. And in fact ever since then they have been proved to have been really quite accurate.

@Aracer- Course not- Yes would be happy with it, any hole’s a goal. But a squeaky win isn’t confidence inspiring. Though I would say that 51% for Yes is effectively a stronger result than 51% for No, since it is is the harder argument to win, it’s still not a great result.

(unless of course you’re a Westminster government, where 36.1% of votes cast or, what was it, 24% of eligible votes, is considered a mandate to do whatever you want 😉 )

So I would say, 49% for Yes would be a creditable near miss, though obviously a crushing disappointment. 51% for No would still be an incredibly worrying near miss, despite being a victory. What do you reckon?

That wasn’t my claim.
Your level of comprehension is challenging your level of literacy.

Well if you want to keep moving the goalposts it is hardly the fault of my comprehension 😈

People we are now debating the efficacies of polls….we really need to get out more

FWIW the polls say no will win and I see little reason to not believe this but there is enough slack for a change/swing to occur but I dont think it is likely.

Either way it will be a narrow win for one side and wont put the issue permanently to bed if/when they lose/gain independence.

True – though the problem is that No need to win every time. Yes only need to win once.

Aracer – yes, I don’t think it’s been polled properly. However, why do Yes always do so much better on online polls? Is it because online polls are self-selecting people who actually care?

However, why do Yes always do so much better on online polls? Is it because online polls are self-selecting people who actually care?

No, it’s because there are a lot of mentalists in the yes camp who will vote more than once. 😆

However, why do Yes always do so much better on online polls?

Well in case of the ex-pat vote which suggests 64% backing Yes, which clearly completely at odds with opinion polls in Scotland, I would have thought there are a couple of reasons.

Firstly they are less likely to live with the consequences of a separate Scotland compared to those actually living in Scotland, and secondly their opinion on the matter is likely to be motivated for much more emotional reasons rather than practical ones.

The Yes camp appears to rely heavily on an emotional appeal rather than one based on practical considerations which they claim should be deferred for another time.

64% of expats are for indy and you never met one sbob? 😆 Oh right,it is metalists voting twice?

The inequality gap is alive and well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10764060/Aberdeen-tops-table-for-disposable-income.html
Higher level of multibillionaires in Aberdeen than London. Greater sales of Chelsea tractors also. Perhaps Aberdonians could fund the food banks, and prevent disabled people in the PM’s constituancy from starving to death!

a higher rate of multibillionaires per head than London

Which isn’t exactly surprising since London has the highest level of economic inequality and poverty in the whole of the UK.

So making a comparison with the worse example of inequality in the UK probably isn’t that useful.

I am not trying to draw an inequality comparison between Aberdeen and London. Just a point of fact if you believe the paper is correct. I have said previously on here that London does have extremes of wealth and poverty.

I have also said that Scotland becoming independent does nothing to help some of the UK’s poorest, many of whom live in London, and yes voters pretending they care becomes a bit tiresome.

The main reason for the post is to highlight that wealth inequality will not magically disappear in an iScotland.