Here are the PEP guidelines written by BASHH, note table 1 – the risk factors in certain groups….and then note table 3….where they calculate the risks of shagging either of these groups. It looks like they converted the percentage risk of each group to decimals for the transmission risk equation but they appear to have made some mistakes in that conversion.

So am I being special or should these quacks even be prescribing. Piss poor considering this is used to guide health advisers in STI clinics.

http://www.bashh.org/documents/4076

Lastly could anyone point me to any other guidelines the NHS uses for prescribing PEP. Banging my head against a wall trying to think of a decent meta-analysis to do.

matermatically

In a thread pointing out inaccuracies?

Hey, at least I edited it before publishing my findings in a freaking journal that’s meant to inform other quacks how to prescribe.

Bare with me as I’m hung over….but I’m not even sure they should be multiplying a decimal by a percentage…..this would mean an underestimated risk would it not and lots of people not being given PEP who really should? I can’t quite believe they’d be that thick so maybe I’m missing something and someone could correct me.

I struggle with long sentences, but top line does seem wrong but I think their final answer is probably right. 1.1% chance of acquiring HIV from unprotected sex with a +ve partner X 8.1% chance of partner actually having it
so about 1% of about 10%, or approx 1 in 1,000
0.011 x 0.081 = 0.00089, or 0.089% (1 in 1100ish is it ?)

Yeah, good point. Check out the numbers for injecting drug users scaredypants? Let me know what you think.

EDIT: Answers seem to be fine now I just converted everything back to decimals, thanks a bunch scaredy.

Bad form mixing decimals and percentages even if the final answers are right. What threw me is the heterosexual women (0.003) should be three decimals/zeros not two – coupled with bad form and a hangover I was getting wound up.

Yup, it’s just that the figures of risk of transmission from having heterosexual sex with a female from the UK with an unknown status are 1 in 4 million not 1 in 400,000

and for women having hetero loving it’s 1 in 2 million.

Regardless of the low risks bwaarp, still best to put a rubber on it mate…..

DrP